Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Increased tubulointerstitial recruitment of human CD141(hi) CLEC9A(+) and CD1c(+) myeloid dendritic cell subsets in renal fibrosis and chronic kidney disease

Dendritic cells (DCs) play critical roles in immune-mediated kidney diseases. Little is known, however, about DC subsets in human chronic kidney disease, with previous studies restricted to a limited set of pathologies and to using immunohistochemical methods. In this study, we developed novel protocols for extracting renal DC subsets from diseased human kidneys and identified, enumerated, and phenotyped them by multicolor flow cytometry. We detected significantly greater numbers of total DCs as well as CD141(hi) and CD1c(+) myeloid DC (mDCs) subsets in diseased biopsies with interstitial fibrosis than diseased biopsies without fibrosis or healthy kidney tissue. In contrast, plasmacytoid DC numbers were significantly higher in the fibrotic group compared with healthy tissue only. Numbers of all DC subsets correlated with loss of kidney function, recorded as estimated glomerular filtration rate. CD141(hi) DCs expressed C-type lectin domain family 9 member A (CLEC9A), whereas the majority of CD1c(+) DCs lacked the expression of CD1a and DC-specific ICAM-3-grabbing nonintegrin (DC-SIGN), suggesting these mDC subsets may be circulating CD141(hi) and CD1c(+) blood DCs infiltrating kidney tissue. Our analysis revealed CLEC9A(+) and CD1c(+) cells were restricted to the tubulointerstitium. Notably, DC expression of the costimulatory and maturation molecule CD86 was significantly increased in both diseased cohorts compared with healthy tissue. Transforming growth factor-β levels in dissociated tissue supernatants were significantly elevated in diseased biopsies with fibrosis compared with nonfibrotic biopsies, with mDCs identified as a major source of this profibrotic cytokine. Collectively, our data indicate that activated mDC subsets, likely recruited into the tubulointerstitium, are positioned to play a role in the development of fibrosis and, thus, progression to chronic kidney disease.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The role of 25-hydroxyvitamin D deficiency in promoting insulin resistance and inflammation in patients with chronic kidney disease: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Approximately 50% of patients with stage 3 Chronic Kidney Disease are 25-hydroxyvitamin D insufficient, and this prevalence increases with falling glomerular filtration rate. Vitamin D is now recognised as having pleiotropic roles beyond bone and mineral homeostasis, with the vitamin D receptor and metabolising machinery identified in multiple tissues. Worryingly, recent observational data has highlighted an association between hypovitaminosis D and increased cardiovascular mortality, possibly mediated via vitamin D effects on insulin resistance and inflammation. The main hypothesis of this study is that oral Vitamin D supplementation will ameliorate insulin resistance in patients with Chronic Kidney Disease stage 3 when compared to placebo. Secondary hypotheses will test whether this is associated with decreased inflammation and bone/adipocyte-endocrine dysregulation. METHODS/DESIGN This study is a single-centre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial. Inclusion criteria include; estimated glomerular filtration rate 30-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2); aged >or=18 on entry to study; and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <75 nmol/L. Patients will be randomised 1:1 to receive either oral cholecalciferol 2000IU/day or placebo for 6 months. The primary outcome will be an improvement in insulin sensitivity, measured by hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp. Secondary outcome measures will include serum parathyroid hormone, cytokines (Interleukin-1beta, Interleukin-6, Tumour Necrosis Factor alpha), adiponectin (total and High Molecular Weight), osteocalcin (carboxylated and under-carboxylated), peripheral blood mononuclear cell Nuclear Factor Kappa-B p65 binding activity, brachial artery reactivity, aortic pulse wave velocity and waveform analysis, and indirect calorimetry. All outcome measures will be performed at baseline and end of study. DISCUSSION To date, no randomised controlled trial has been performed in pre-dialysis CKD patients to study the correlation between vitamin D status with supplementation, insulin resistance and markers of adverse cardiovascular risk. We remain hopeful that cholecalciferol may be a safe intervention, with health benefits beyond those related to bone-mineral homeostasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12609000246280.

Membrane filtration of clarified juice

A membrane filtration plant using suitable micro or ultra-filtration membranes has the potential to significantly increase pan stage capacity and improve sugar quality. Previous investigations by SRI and others have shown that membranes will remove polysaccharides, turbidity and colloidal impurities and result in lower viscosity syrups and molasses. However, the conclusion from those investigations was that membrane filtration was not economically viable. A comprehensive assessment of current generation membrane technology was undertaken by SRI. With the aid of two pilot plants provided by Applexion and Koch Membrane Systems, extensive trials were conducted at an Australian factory using clarified juice at 80–98°C as feed to each pilot plant. Conditions were varied during the trials to examine the effect of a range of operating parameters on the filtering characteristics of each of the membranes. These parameters included feed temperature and pressure, flow velocity, soluble solids and impurity concentrations. The data were then combined to develop models to predict the filtration rate (or flux) that could be expected for nominated operating conditions. The models demonstrated very good agreement with the data collected during the trials. The trials also identified those membranes that provided the highest flux levels per unit area of membrane surface for a nominated set of conditions. Cleaning procedures were developed that ensured the water flux level was recovered following a clean-in-place process. Bulk samples of clarified juice and membrane filtered juice from each pilot were evaporated to syrup to quantify the gain in pan stage productivity that results from the removal of high molecular weight impurities by membrane filtration. The results are in general agreement with those published by other research groups.

The use of new generation geosynthetics in water treatment

The importance of clean drinking water in any community is absolutely vital if we as the consumers are to sustain a life of health and wellbeing. Suspended particles in surface waters not only provide the means to transport micro-organisms which can cause serious infections and diseases, they can also affect the performance capacity of a water treatment plant. In such situations pre-treatment ahead of the main plant is recommended. Previous research carried out using non-woven synthetic as a pre-filter materials for protecting slow sand filters from high turbidity showed that filter run times can be extended by several times and filters can be regenerated by simply removing and washing of the fabric ( Mbwette and Graham, 1987 and Mbwette, 1991). Geosynthetic materials have been extensively used for soil retention and dewatering in geotechnical applications and little research exists for the application of turbidity reduction in water treatment. With the development of new materials in geosynthetics today, it was hypothesized that the turbidity removal efficiency can be improved further by selecting appropriate materials. Two different geosynthetic materials (75 micron) tested at a filtration rate of 0.7 m/h yielded 30-45% reduction in turbidity with relatively minor head loss. It was found that the non-woven geotextile Propex 1701 retained the highest performance in both filtration efficiency and head loss across the varying turbidity ranges in comparison to other geotextiles tested. With 5 layers of the Propex 1701 an average percent reduction of approximately 67% was achieved with a head loss average of 4mm over the two and half hour testing period. Using the data collected for the Propex 1701 a mathematical model was developed for predicting the expected percent reduction given the ability to control the cost and as a result the number of layers to be used in a given filtration scenario.

The mechanisms of human renal epithelial cell modulation of autologous dendritic cell phenotype and function

Proximal tubule epithelial cells (PTEC) of the kidney line the proximal tubule downstream of the glomerulus and play a major role in the re-absorption of small molecular weight proteins that may pass through the glomerular filtration process. In the perturbed disease state PTEC also contribute to the inflammatory disease process via both positive and negative mechanisms via the production of inflammatory cytokines which chemo-attract leukocytes and the subsequent down-modulation of these cells to prevent uncontrolled inflammatory responses. It is well established that dendritic cells are responsible for the initiation and direction of adaptive immune responses. Both resident and infiltrating dendritic cells are localised within the tubulointerstitium of the renal cortex, in close apposition to PTEC, in inflammatory disease states. We previously demonstrated that inflammatory PTEC are able to modulate autologous human dendritic cell phenotype and functional responses. Here we extend these findings to characterise the mechanisms of this PTEC immune-modulation using primary human PTEC and autologous monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MoDC) as the model system. We demonstrate that PTEC express three inhibitory molecules: (i) cell surface PD-L1 that induces MoDC expression of PD-L1; (ii) intracellular IDO that maintains the expression of MoDC CD14, drives the expression of CD80, PD-L1 and IL-10 by MoDC and inhibits T cell stimulatory capacity; and (iii) soluble HLA-G (sHLA-G) that inhibits HLA-DR and induces IL-10 expression by MoDC. Collectively the results demonstrate that primary human PTEC are able to modulate autologous DC phenotype and function via multiple complex pathways. Further dissection of these pathways is essential to target therapeutic strategies in the treatment of inflammatory kidney disorders.

Investigating variation in bus ridership rates within localised areas of a sub-tropical city

This thesis makes a significant contribution to knowledge and understanding of 'Human Travel Behaviour' in relation to transportation research. It holds some important merits that have not been proposed before. It develops a new, comprehensive and meaningful relationship that includes bus transit ridership change due to weather variables, seasonality and transit quality of service within a single daily ridership rate estimation model. The research incorporated both temporal and spatial influences on ridership within a modelling structure, named as the Nested Model Structure. It provides a complete picture of ridership variation across the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.

Relative entropy rate based multiple hidden Markov Model Approximation

This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.

Urban network travel time estimation from stop-line loop detector data and signal controller data

This paper presents a model to estimate travel time using cumulative plots. Three different cases considered are i) case-Det, for only detector data; ii) case-DetSig, for detector data and signal controller data and iii) case-DetSigSFR: for detector data, signal controller data and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different detection intervals is evaluated. It is observed that detection interval is not critical if signal timings are available. Comparable accuracy can be obtained from larger detection interval with signal timings or from shorter detection interval without signal timings. The performance for case-DetSig and for case-DetSigSFR is consistent with accuracy generally more than 95% whereas, case-Det is highly sensitive to the signal phases in the detection interval and its performance is uncertain if detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycles.

A hidden Markov model and relative entropy rate approach to vision-based dim target detection for UAV sense-and-avoid

Uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a cutting-edge technology that is at the forefront of aviation/aerospace research and development worldwide. Many consider their current military and defence applications as just a token of their enormous potential. Unlocking and fully exploiting this potential will see UAVs in a multitude of civilian applications and routinely operating alongside piloted aircraft. The key to realising the full potential of UAVs lies in addressing a host of regulatory, public relation, and technological challenges never encountered be- fore. Aircraft collision avoidance is considered to be one of the most important issues to be addressed, given its safety critical nature. The collision avoidance problem can be roughly organised into three areas: 1) Sense; 2) Detect; and 3) Avoid. Sensing is concerned with obtaining accurate and reliable information about other aircraft in the air; detection involves identifying potential collision threats based on available information; avoidance deals with the formulation and execution of appropriate manoeuvres to maintain safe separation. This thesis tackles the detection aspect of collision avoidance, via the development of a target detection algorithm that is capable of real-time operation onboard a UAV platform. One of the key challenges of the detection problem is the need to provide early warning. This translates to detecting potential threats whilst they are still far away, when their presence is likely to be obscured and hidden by noise. Another important consideration is the choice of sensors to capture target information, which has implications for the design and practical implementation of the detection algorithm. The main contributions of the thesis are: 1) the proposal of a dim target detection algorithm combining image morphology and hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering approaches; 2) the novel use of relative entropy rate (RER) concepts for HMM filter design; 3) the characterisation of algorithm detection performance based on simulated data as well as real in-flight target image data; and 4) the demonstration of the proposed algorithm's capacity for real-time target detection. We also consider the extension of HMM filtering techniques and the application of RER concepts for target heading angle estimation. In this thesis we propose a computer-vision based detection solution, due to the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) availability of camera hardware and the hardware's relatively low cost, power, and size requirements. The proposed target detection algorithm adopts a two-stage processing paradigm that begins with an image enhancement pre-processing stage followed by a track-before-detect (TBD) temporal processing stage that has been shown to be effective in dim target detection. We compare the performance of two candidate morphological filters for the image pre-processing stage, and propose a multiple hidden Markov model (MHMM) filter for the TBD temporal processing stage. The role of the morphological pre-processing stage is to exploit the spatial features of potential collision threats, while the MHMM filter serves to exploit the temporal characteristics or dynamics. The problem of optimising our proposed MHMM filter has been examined in detail. Our investigation has produced a novel design process for the MHMM filter that exploits information theory and entropy related concepts. The filter design process is posed as a mini-max optimisation problem based on a joint RER cost criterion. We provide proof that this joint RER cost criterion provides a bound on the conditional mean estimate (CME) performance of our MHMM filter, and this in turn establishes a strong theoretical basis connecting our filter design process to filter performance. Through this connection we can intelligently compare and optimise candidate filter models at the design stage, rather than having to resort to time consuming Monte Carlo simulations to gauge the relative performance of candidate designs. Moreover, the underlying entropy concepts are not constrained to any particular model type. This suggests that the RER concepts established here may be generalised to provide a useful design criterion for multiple model filtering approaches outside the class of HMM filters. In this thesis we also evaluate the performance of our proposed target detection algorithm under realistic operation conditions, and give consideration to the practical deployment of the detection algorithm onboard a UAV platform. Two fixed-wing UAVs were engaged to recreate various collision-course scenarios to capture highly realistic vision (from an onboard camera perspective) of the moments leading up to a collision. Based on this collected data, our proposed detection approach was able to detect targets out to distances ranging from about 400m to 900m. These distances, (with some assumptions about closing speeds and aircraft trajectories) translate to an advanced warning ahead of impact that approaches the 12.5 second response time recommended for human pilots. Furthermore, readily available graphic processing unit (GPU) based hardware is exploited for its parallel computing capabilities to demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed target detection algorithm. A prototype hardware-in- the-loop system has been found to be capable of achieving data processing rates sufficient for real-time operation. There is also scope for further improvement in performance through code optimisations. Overall, our proposed image-based target detection algorithm offers UAVs a cost-effective real-time target detection capability that is a step forward in ad- dressing the collision avoidance issue that is currently one of the most significant obstacles preventing widespread civilian applications of uninhabited aircraft. We also highlight that the algorithm development process has led to the discovery of a powerful multiple HMM filtering approach and a novel RER-based multiple filter design process. The utility of our multiple HMM filtering approach and RER concepts, however, extend beyond the target detection problem. This is demonstrated by our application of HMM filters and RER concepts to a heading angle estimation problem.