Phenological changes in six Australian subalpine plants in response to experimental warming and year-to-year variation

The likely phenological responses of plants to climate warming can be measured through experimental manipulation of field sites, but results are rarely validated against year-to-year changes in climate. Here, we describe the response of 1-5 years of experimental warming on phenology (budding, flowering and seed maturation) of six common subalpine plant species in the Australian Alps using the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) protocol.2. Phenological changes in some species (particularly the forb Craspedia jamesii) were detected in experimental plots within a year of warming, whereas changes in most other species (the forb Erigeron bellidioides, the shrub Asterolasia trymalioides and the graminoids Carex breviculmis and Poa hiemata) did not develop until after 2-4 years; thus, there appears to be a cumulative effect of warming for some species across multiple years.3. There was evidence of changes in the length of the period between flowering and seed maturity in one species (P. hiemata) that led to a similar timing of seed maturation, suggesting compensation.4. Year-to-year variation in phenology was greater than variation between warmed and control plots and could be related to differences in thawing degree days (particularly, for E. bellidioides) due to earlier timing of budding and other events under warmer conditions. However, in Carex breviculmis, there was no association between phenology and temperature changes across years.5. These findings indicate that, although phenological changes occurred earlier in response to warming in all six species, some species showed buffered rather than immediate responses.6. Synthesis. Warming in ITEX open-top chambers in the Australian Alps produced earlier budding, flowering and seed set in several alpine species. Species also altered the timing of these events, particularly budding, in response to year-to-year temperature variation. Some species responded immediately, whereas in others the cumulative effects of warming across several years were required before a response was detected.

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996-2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5, 26%) and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: -6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.

Sensitivity of organic matter decomposition to warming varies with its quality

The relationship between organic matter (OM) lability and temperature sensitivity is disputed, with recent observations suggesting that responses of relatively more resistant OM to increased temperature could be greater than, equivalent to, or less than responses of relatively more labile OM. This lack of clear understanding limits the ability to forecast carbon (C) cycle responses to temperature changes. Here, we derive a novel approach (denoted Q(10-q)) that accounts for changes in OM quality during decomposition and use it to analyze data from three independent sources. Results from new laboratory soil incubations (labile Q(10-q)=2.1 +/- 0.2; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.8 +/- 0.3) and reanalysis of data from other soil incubations reported in the literature (labile Q(10-q)=2.3; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.3) demonstrate that temperature sensitivity of soil OM decomposition increases with decreasing soil OM lability. Analysis of data from a cross-site, field litter bag decomposition study (labile Q(10-q)=3.3 +/- 0.2; resistant Q(10-q)=4.9 +/- 0.2) shows that litter OM follows the same pattern, with greater temperature sensitivity for more resistant litter OM. Furthermore, the initial response of cultivated soils, presumably containing less labile soil OM (Q(10-q)=2.4 +/- 0.3) was greater than that for undisturbed grassland soils (Q(10-q)=1.7 +/- 0.1). Soil C losses estimated using this approach will differ from previous estimates as a function of the magnitude of the temperature increase and the proportion of whole soil OM comprised of compounds sensitive to temperature over that temperature range. It is likely that increased temperature has already prompted release of significant amounts of C to the atmosphere as CO2. Our results indicate that future losses of litter and soil C may be even greater than previously supposed.

A high sensitive fiber Bragg grating strain sensor with automatic temperature compensation

A high sensitive fiber Bragg grating (FBG) strain sensor with automatic temperature compensation is demonstrated. FBG is axially linked with a stick and their free ends are fixed to the measured object. When the measured strain changes, the stick does not change in length, but the FBG does. When the temperature changes, the stick changes in length to pull the FBG to realize temperature compensation. In experiments, 1.45 times strain sensitivity of bare FBG with temperature compensation of less than 0.1 nm Bragg wavelength drift over 100 ◦C shift is achieved.

Mechanical properties of graphene : effects of layer number, temperature and isotope

Herein the mechanical properties of graphene, including Young’s modulus, fracture stress and fracture strain have been investigated by molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results show that the mechanical properties of graphene are sensitive to the temperature changes but insensitive to the layer numbers in the multilayer graphene. Increasing temperature exerts adverse and significant effects on the mechanical properties of graphene. However, the adverse effect produced by the increasing layer number is marginal. On the other hand, isotope substitutions in graphene play a negligible role in modifying the mechanical properties of graphene.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Temperature and strain-rate dependent fracture strength of graphynes

Graphyne is an allotrope of graphene. The mechanical properties of graphynes (α-, β-, γ- and 6,6,12-graphynes) under uniaxial tension deformation at different temperatures and strain rates are studied using molecular dynamics simulations. It is found that graphynes are more sensitive to temperature changes than graphene in terms of fracture strength and Young's modulus. The temperature sensitivity of the different graphynes is proportionally related to the percentage of acetylenic linkages in their structures, with the α-graphyne (having 100% of acetylenic linkages) being most sensitive to temperature. For the same graphyne, temperature exerts a more pronounced effect on the Young's modulus than fracture strength, which is different from that of graphene. The mechanical properties of graphynes are also sensitive to strain rate, in particular at higher temperatures.

Providing youth with skills, training and employment opportunities through ICT Initiatives

Youth population is increasing explosively particularly in developing countries as a result of rapid urbanization. This increase is bringing large number of social and economic problems. For instance the impacts of job and training availability, and the physical, social and cultural quality of urban environment on young people are enormous, and affect their health, lifestyles, and well-being (Gleeson and Sipe 2006). Besides this, globalization and technological developments are affecting youth in urban areas in all parts of the world, both positively and negatively (Robertson 1995). The rapidly advancing information and communications technologies (ICTs) helps in addressing social and economic problems caused by the rapid growth of urban youth populations in developing countries. ICTs offer opportunities to young people for learning, skill development and employment. But there are downsides: young people in many developing countries lack of having broad access to these new technologies, they are vulnerable to global market changes, and ICTs link them into global cultures which promote consumer goods, potentially eroding local cultures and community values (Manacorda and Petrongolo 1999). However we believe that the positives outweigh such negatives. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the world’s young population number more than they ever have. There are over a billion young people between the ages of 15 and 24, which 85 per cent of them live in developing countries and mainly in urban environments. Many of these young people are in the process of making, or have already made, the transition from school to work. During the last two decades all around the world, these young people, as new workers, have faced a number of challenges associated with globalization and technological advances on labour markets (United Nations 2004). The continuous decrease in the manufacturing employment is made many of the young people facing three options: getting jobs in the informal economy with insecurity and poor wages and working conditions, or getting jobs in the low-tier service industries, or developing their vocational skills to benefit from new opportunities in the professional and advanced technical/knowledge sectors. Moreover in developing countries a large portion of young people are not even lucky enough to choose among any of these options, and consequently facing long-term unemployment, which makes them highly vulnerable. The United Nations’ World Youth Employment report (2004) indicates that in almost all countries, females tend to be far more vulnerable than males in terms of long-term unemployment, and young people who have advanced qualifications are far less likely to experience long-term unemployment than others. In the limited opportunities of the formal labour market, those with limited vocational skills resort to forced entrepreneurship and selfemployment in the informal economy, often working for low pay under hazardous conditions, with only few prospects for the future (United Nations 2005a). The International Labour Organization’s research (2004) revealed that the labour force participation rates for young people decreased by almost four per cent (which is equivalent of 88 million young people) between 1993 and 2003. This is largely as a result of the increased number of young people attending school, high overall unemployment rates, and the fact that some young people gave up any hope of finding work and dropped out of the labour market. At the regional level, youth unemployment was highest in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (25.6%) and sub-Saharan Africa (21%) and lowest in East Asia (7%) and the industrialized economies(13.4%) (International Labour Organization 2004). The youth in economically disadvantaged regions (e.g. the MENA region) face many challenges in education and training that delivers them the right set of skills and knowledge demanded by the labour market. As a consequence, the transition from school to work is mostly unsuccessful and young population end up either unemployed or underemployed in the informal sectors (United Nations 2005b). Unemployment and lack of economic prospects of the urban youth are pushing many of them into criminal acts, excessive alcohol use, substance addiction, and also in many cases resulting in processes of social or political violence (Fernandez-Maldonado 2004; United Nations 2005a). Long-term unemployment leads young people in a process of marginalisation and social exclusion (United Nations 2004). The sustained high rates of long-term youth unemployment have a number of negative effects on societies. First, it results in countries failing to take advantage of the human resources to increase their productive potential, at a time of transition to a globalized world that inexorably demands such leaps in productive capacity. Second, it reinforces the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Third, owing to the discrepancy between more education and exposure to the mass media and fewer employment opportunities, it may encourage the spread of disruptive behaviours, recourse to illegal alternatives for generating income and the loss of basic societal values, all of which erode public safety and social capital. Fourth, it may trigger violent and intractable political conflicts. And lastly, it may exacerbate intergenerational conflicts when young people perceive a lack of opportunity and meritocracy in a system that favours adults who have less formal education and training but more wealth, power and job stability (Hopenhayn 2002). To assist in addressing youth’s skill training and employment problems this paper scrutinises useful international practices, policies, initiatives and programs targeting youth skill training, particularly in ICTs. The MENA national governments and local authorities could consider implementing similar initiative and strategies to address some of the youth employment issues. The broader aim of this paper is to investigate the successful practice and strategies for the information and communication related income generation opportunities for young people to: promote youth entrepreneurship; promote public-private partnerships; target vulnerable groups of young people; narrow digital divide; and put young people in charge. The rest of this paper is organised in five parts. First, the paper provides an overview of the literature on the knowledge economy, skill, education and training issues. Secondly, it reviews the role of ICTs for vocational skill development and employability. Thirdly, it discusses the issues surrounding the development of the digital divide. Fourthly, the paper underlines types and the importance of developing ICT initiatives targeting young people, and reviews some of the successful policy implementations on ICT-based initiatives from both developed and developing countries that offer opportunities to young people for learning, skill development and employment. Then the paper concludes by providing useful generalised recommendations for the MENA region countries and cities in: advocating possible opportunities for ICT generated employment for young people; and discussing how ICT policies could be modified and adopted to meet young people’s needs.

Graphcut-based interactive segmentation using colour and depth cues

Segmentation of novel or dynamic objects in a scene, often referred to as background sub- traction or foreground segmentation, is critical for robust high level computer vision applica- tions such as object tracking, object classifca- tion and recognition. However, automatic real- time segmentation for robotics still poses chal- lenges including global illumination changes, shadows, inter-re ections, colour similarity of foreground to background, and cluttered back- grounds. This paper introduces depth cues provided by structure from motion (SFM) for interactive segmentation to alleviate some of these challenges. In this paper, two prevailing interactive segmentation algorithms are com- pared; Lazysnapping [Li et al., 2004] and Grab- cut [Rother et al., 2004], both based on graph- cut optimisation [Boykov and Jolly, 2001]. The algorithms are extended to include depth cues rather than colour only as in the original pa- pers. Results show interactive segmentation based on colour and depth cues enhances the performance of segmentation with a lower er- ror with respect to ground truth.

Natural convection in the attic-shaped spaces

Heat transfer through an attic space into or out of buildings is an important issue for attic-shaped houses in both hot and cold climates. One of the important objectives for design and construction of houses is to provide thermal comfort for occupants. In the present energy-conscious society, it is also a requirement for houses to be energy efficient, i.e. the energy consumption for heating or air-conditioning houses must be minimized. Relevant to these objectives, research into heat transfer in attics has been conducted for about three decades. The transient behaviour of an attic space is directly relevant to our daily life. Certain periods of the day or night may be considered as having a constant ambient temperature (e.g. during 11am - 2pm or 11pm - 2am). However, at other times during the day or night the ambient temperature changes with time (e.g. between 5am - 9am or 5pm - 9pm). Therefore, the analysis of steady state solution is not sufficient to describe the fluid flow and heat transfer in the attic space. The discussion of the transient development of the boundary is required. A theoretical understanding of the transient behaviour of the flow in the enclosure is performed through scaling analysis for sudden and ramp heating conditions. A proper identification of the timescales, the velocity and the thickness relevant to the flow that develops inside the cavity makes it possible to predict theoretically the basic flow features that will survive once the thermal flow in the enclosure reaches a steady state. Those scaling predictions have been verified by a series of numerical simulations.

Assessing the overuse of antibiotics in children with URTIs in Saudi Arabia : development of the parental perception on antibiotics scale (PAPA scale)

Background: Antibiotic overuse is influenced by several factors that can only be measured using a valid and reliable psychosocial measurement instrument. This study aims to establish translation and early stage validation of an instrument recently developed by this research team to measure factors influencing the overuse of antibiotics in children with upper respiratory tract infections in Saudi Arabia. Method: The content evaluation panel was composed of area experts approached using the Delphi Technique. Experts were provided with the questionnaires iteratively, on a three-round basis until consensus on the relevance of items was reached independently. Translation was achieved by adapting Brislin’s model of translation. Results: After going through the iterative process with the experts, consensus was reached to 58 items (including demographics). Experts also pointed out some issues related to ambiguity and redundancy in some items. A final Arabic version was produced from the translation process. Conclusion: This study produced preliminary validation of the developed instrument from the experts’ contributions. Then, the instrument was translated from English to Arabic. The instrument will undergo further validation steps in the future, such as construct validity.

Transforming morning to afternoon using linear regression techniques

Visual localization in outdoor environments is often hampered by the natural variation in appearance caused by such things as weather phenomena, diurnal fluctuations in lighting, and seasonal changes. Such changes are global across an environment and, in the case of global light changes and seasonal variation, the change in appearance occurs in a regular, cyclic manner. Visual localization could be greatly improved if it were possible to predict the appearance of a particular location at a particular time, based on the appearance of the location in the past and knowledge of the nature of appearance change over time. In this paper, we investigate whether global appearance changes in an environment can be learned sufficiently to improve visual localization performance. We use time of day as a test case, and generate transformations between morning and afternoon using sample images from a training set. We demonstrate the learned transformation can be generalized from training data and show the resulting visual localization on a test set is improved relative to raw image comparison. The improvement in localization remains when the area is revisited several weeks later.

Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality : lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.