On the effective hydraulic conductivity and macrodispersivity for density-dependent groundwater flow

In this paper, semi-analytical expressions of the effective hydraulic conductivity ( KE) and macrodispersivity ( αE) for 3D steady-state density-dependent groundwater flow are derived using a stationary spectral method. Based on the derived expressions, we present the dependence of KE and αE on the density of fluid under different dispersivity and spatial correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity. The results show that the horizontal KE and αE are not affected by density-induced flow. However, due to gravitational instability of the fluid induced by density contrasts, both vertical KE and αE are found to be reduced slightly when the density factor ( γ ) is less than 0.01, whereas significant decreases occur when γ exceeds 0.01. Of note, the variation of KE and αE is more significant when local dispersivity is small and the correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity is large.

Investigation on parameters used in warning systems for rain-induced embankment instability

A number of instrumented laboratory-scale soil embankment slopes were subjected to artificial rainfall until they failed. The factor of safety of the slope based on real-time measurements of pore-water pressure (suction) and laboratory measured soil properties were calculated as the rainfall progressed. Based on the experiment measurements and slope stability analysis, it was observed that slope displacement measurements can be used to warn the slope failure more accurately. Further, moisture content/pore-water pressure measurements near the toe of the slope and the real-time factor of safety can also be used for prediction of rainfall-induced embankment failures with adequate accuracy.

Instability prolongs the chondral phase during bone healing in sheep

In this sheep study, we investigated the influence of fixation stability on the temporal and spatial distribution of tissues in the fracture callus. As the initial mechanical conditions have been cited as being especially important for the healing outcome, it was hypothesized that differences in the path of healing would be seen as early as the initial phase of healing. ----- ----- Sixty-four sheep underwent a mid-shaft tibial osteotomy that was treated with either a rigid or a semi-rigid external fixator. Animals were sacrificed at 2, 3, 6 and 9 weeks postoperatively and the fracture calluses were analyzed using radiological, biomechanical and histological techniques. Statistical comparison between the groups was performed using the Mann–Whitney U test for unpaired non-parametric data. ----- ----- In the callus of the tibia treated with semi-rigid fixation, remnants of the fracture haematoma remained present for longer, although new periosteal bone formation during early healing was similar in both groups. The mechanical competence of the healing callus at 6 weeks was inferior compared to tibiae treated with rigid fixation. Semi-rigid fixation resulted in a larger cartilage component of the callus, which persisted longer. Remodeling processes were initiated earlier in the rigid group, while new bone formation continued throughout the entire investigated period in the semi-rigid group. ----- ----- In this study, evidence is provided that less rigid fixation increased the time required for healing. The process of intramembranous ossification appeared during the initial stages of healing to be independent of mechanical stability. However, the delay in healing was related to a prolonged chondral phase.

The creative instability hypothesis

This paper provides an analysis of why many ‘stars’ tend to fade away rather than enjoying ongoing branding advantages from their reputations. We propose a theory of market overshooting in creative industries that is based on Schumpeterian competition between producers to maintain the interest of boundedly rational fans. As creative producers compete by offering further artistic novelty, this escalation of product complexity eventually leads to overshooting. We propose this as a theory of endogenous cycles in the creative industries.

The effects of deep cracks on the rain-induced instability of slopes : A case study

Rainfall can disrupt the balance of natural soil slope. This imbalance will be accelerated by existence of cracks in soil slope, which lead to decreasing shear strength and increasing hydraulic conductivity of the soil slope. Some research works have been conducted on the effects of surface-cracks on slope stability. However, the influence of deep-cracks is yet to be investigated. Limited availability of deep crack data due to the lack of effective sub-soil investigation methods could be one of the obstacles. To emphasize the effects of deep cracks in soil slope on its rain-induced instability, a natural soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 31st October 2010 due to heavy rainfall was analyzed for stability with and without deep cracks in the slope. The slope stability analysis was conducted using SLOPE/W coupling with the results of transient seepage analysis (SEEP/W) that simulate the pore-water pressure development in the slope during the rainfall. The results of Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) survey, bore-hole tests and geometrical survey conducted on the slope before its failure were used to identify the soil layers’ stratification including deep cracks, the properties of different soil layers, and geometrical parameters of the slope for the analysis. The results showed that it is vital to consider the existence of deep crack in soil slopes in analysing their instability induced by rainfalls.

Effects of slope inclination on the rain-induced instability of embankment slopes

Rainfall has been identified as one of the main causes for embankment failures in areas where high annual rainfall is experienced. The inclination of the embankment slope is important for its stability during rainfall. In this study, instrumented model embankments were subjected to artificial rainfalls to investigate the effects of the slope inclination on their stability. The results of the study suggested that when the slope inclination is greater than the friction angle of the soil, the failure is initiated by the loss of soil suction and when it is smaller than the friction angle of the soil, the failure is initiated by the positive pore water pressure developed at the toe of the slope. Further, slopes become more susceptible to sudden collapse during rainfall as the slope angle increases.

A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Hydraulic instability onset detection in Kaplan turbines by monitoring shaft vibrations

Design of hydraulic turbines has often to deal with hydraulic instability. It is well-known that Francis and Kaplan types present hydraulic instability in their design power range. Even if modern CFD tools may help to define these dangerous operating conditions and optimize runner design, hydraulic instabilities may fortuitously arise during the turbine life and should be timely detected in order to assure a long-lasting operating life. In a previous paper, the authors have considered the phenomenon of helical vortex rope, which happens at low flow rates when a swirling flow, in the draft tube conical inlet, occupies a large portion of the inlet. In this condition, a strong helical vortex rope appears. The vortex rope causes mechanical effects on the runner, on the whole turbine and on the draft tube, which may eventually produce severe damages on the turbine unit and whose most evident symptoms are vibrations. The authors have already shown that vibration analysis is suitable for detecting vortex rope onset, thanks to an experimental test campaign performed during the commissioning of a 23 MW Kaplan hydraulic turbine unit. In this paper, the authors propose a sophisticated data driven approach to detect vortex rope onset at different power load, based on the analysis of the vibration signals in the order domain and introducing the so-called "residual order spectrogram", i.e. an order-rotation representation of the vibration signal. Some experimental test runs are presented and the possibility to detect instability onset, especially in real-time, is discussed.