Decomposition analysis to examine Australia’s 2030 GHGs emissions target: How hard will it be to achieve?

The Australian government has recently pledged a reduction in GHGs emissions of 26–28% below the 2005 level by 2030. How big is the challenge for the country to achieve this target in terms of its present emissions profile, recent historical trends, and the contributions to those trends from key proximate factors contributing to emissions? In this paper, we attempt a quantitative judgement of the challenge by using decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis it appears the announced target will be quite challenging to achieve if the average annual mitigating effects from economic restructuring, energy efficiency improvements and movement towards less emissions-intensive energy sources in evidence over 2002–2013 continued through to 2030; however, if the contribution from these mitigating sources in evidence over 2006–2013 can be sustained, achievement of the target will be much less challenging. The challenge for government then will be to provide a policy framework to ensure the more pronounced beneficial impacts of the mitigating factors evidenced during 2006–2013 can be maintained over the years to 2030.

Abundance of Natural Riparian Forests and Tree Plantations in the Amudarya Delta of Uzbekistan and their impact on emissions of soil-borne greenhouse gases

Through a forest inventory in parts of the Amudarya river delta, Central Asia, we assessed the impact of ongoing forest degradation on the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from soils. Interpretation of aerial photographs from 2001, combined with data on forest inventory in 1990 and field survey in 2003 provided comprehensive information about the extent and changes of the natural tugai riparian forests and tree plantations in the delta. The findings show an average annual deforestation rate of almost 1.3% and an even higher rate of land use change from tugai forests to land with only sparse tree cover. These annual rates of deforestation and forest degradation are higher than the global annual forest loss. By 2003, the tugai forest area had drastically decreased to about 60% compared to an inventory in 1990. Significant differences in soil GHG emissions between forest and agricultural land use underscore the impact of the ongoing land use change on the emission of soil-borne GHGs. The conversion of tugai forests into irrigated croplands will release 2.5 t CO2 equivalents per hectare per year due to elevated emissions of N2O and CH4. This demonstrates that the ongoing transformation of tugai forests into agricultural land-use systems did not only lead to a loss of biodiversity and of a unique ecosystem, but substantially impacts the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of GHG and soil C and N turnover processes.

Diesel bus emissions of submicrometer particles measured in a tunnel study

The emission factors of a bus fleet consisting of approximately three hundreds diesel powered buses were measured in a tunnel study under well controlled conditions during a two-day monitoring campaign in Brisbane. The number concentration of particles in the size range 0.017-0.7 m was monitored simultaneously by two Scanning Mobility Particle Sizers located at the tunnel’s entrance and exit. The mean value of the number emission factors was found to be (2.44±1.41)×1014 particles km-1. The results are in good agreement with the emission factors determined from steady-state dynamometer testing of 12 buses from the same Brisbane City bus fleet, thus indicating that when carefully designed, both approaches, the dynamometer and on-road studies, can provide comparable results, applicable for the assessment of the effect of traffic emissions on airborne particle pollution.

Particle and gaseous emissions from commercial aircraft at each stage of the landing and takeoff cycle

A novel technique was used to measure emission factors for commonly used commercial aircraft including a range of Boeing and Airbus airframes under real world conditions. Engine exhaust emission factors for particles in terms of particle number and mass (PM2.5), along with those for CO2, and NOx were measured for over 280 individual aircraft during the various modes of landing/takeoff (LTO) cycle. Results from this study show that particle number, and NOx emission factors are dependant on aircraft engine thrust level. Minimum and maximum emissions factors for particle number, PM2.5, and NOx emissions were found to be in the range of 4.16×1015-5.42×1016 kg-1, 0.03-0.72 g.kg-1, and 3.25-37.94 g.kg-1 respectively for all measured airframes and LTO cycle modes. Number size distributions of emitted particles for the naturally diluted aircraft plumes in each mode of LTO cycle showed that particles were predominantly in the range of 4 to 100 nm in diameter in all cases. In general, size distributions exhibit similar modality during all phases of the LTO cycle. A very distinct nucleation mode was observed in all particle size distributions, except for taxiing and landing of A320 aircraft. Accumulation modes were also observed in all particle size distributions. Analysis of aircraft engine emissions during LTO cycle showed that aircraft thrust level is considerably higher during taxiing than idling suggesting that International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards need to be modified as the thrust levels for taxi and idle are considered to be the same (7% of total thrust) [1].

Particle and gaseous emissions from compressed natural gas and ultralow sulphur diesel-fuelled buses at four steady engine loads

Exhaust emissions from thirteen compressed natural gas (CNG) and nine ultralow sulphur diesel in-service transport buses were monitored on a chassis dynamometer. Measurements were carried out at idle and at three steady engine loads of 25%, 50% and 100% of maximum power at a fixed speed of 60 kmph. Emission factors were estimated for particle mass and number, carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen for two types of CNG buses (Scania and MAN, compatible with Euro 2 and 3 emission standards, respectively) and two types of diesel buses (Volvo Pre-Euro/Euro1 and Mercedez OC500 Euro3). All emission factors increased with load. The median particle mass emission factor for the CNG buses was less than 1% of that from the diesel buses at all loads. However, the particle number emission factors did not show a statistically significant difference between buses operating on the two types of fuel. In this paper, for the very first time, particle number emission factors are presented at four steady state engine loads for CNG buses. Median values ranged from the order of 1012 particles min-1 at idle to 1015 particles km-1 at full power. Most of the particles observed in the CNG emissions were in the nanoparticle size range and likely to be composed of volatile organic compounds The CO2 emission factors were about 20% to 30% greater for the diesel buses over the CNG buses, while the oxides of nitrogen emission factors did not show any difference due to the large variation between buses.