Navigating the future of roads – considering potential impacts of environmental and social trends on road infrastructure

Providing mobility corridors for communities, enabling freight networks to transport goods and services, and a pathway for emergency services and disaster relief operations, roads are a vital component of our societal system. In the coming decades, a number of modern issues will face road agencies as a result of climate change, resource scarcity and energy related challenges that will have implications for society. To date, these issues have been discussed on a case by case basis, leading to a fragmented approach by state and federal agencies in considering the future of roads – with potentially significant cost and risk implications. Within this context, this paper summarises part of a research project undertaken within the ‘Greening the Built Environment’ program of the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre (SBEnrc, Australia), which identified key factors or ‘trends’ affecting the future of roads and key strategies to ensure that road agencies can continue to deliver road infrastructure that meets societal needs in an environmentally appropriate manner. The research was conducted over two years, including a review of academic and state agency literature, four stakeholder workshops in Western Australia and Queensland, and industry consultation. The project was supported financially and through peer review and contribution, by Main Roads Western Australia, QLD Department of Transport and Main Roads, Parsons Brinckerhoff, John Holland Group, and the Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC). The project highlighted several potential trends that are expected to affect road agencies in the future, including predicted resource and materials shortages, increases in energy and natural resources prices, increased costs related to greenhouse gas emissions, changing use and expectations of roads, and changes in the frequency and intensity of weather events. Exploring the implications of these potential futures, the study then developed a number of strategies in order to prepare transport agencies for the associated risks that such trends may present. An unintended outcome of the project was the development of a process for enquiring into future scenarios, which will be explored further in Stage 2 of the project (2013-2014). The study concluded that regardless of the type and scale of response by the agency, strategies must be holistic in approach, and remain dynamic and flexible.

Configurable reference modeling languages

This chapter discusses reference modelling languages for business systems analysis and design. In particular, it reports on reference models in the context of the design-for/by-reuse paradigm, explains how traditional modelling techniques fail to provide adequate conceptual expressiveness to allow for easy model reuse by configuration or adaptation and elaborates on the need for reference modelling languages to be configurable. We discuss requirements for and the development of reference modelling languages that reflect the need for configurability. Exemplarily, we report on the development, definition and configuration of configurable event-driven process chains. We further outline how configurable reference modelling languages and the corresponding design principles can be used in future scenarios such as process mining and data modelling.

Development of a particle number and particle mass emissions inventory for an urban fleet : a study in South-East Queensland

Motor vehicles are a major source of gaseous and particulate matter pollution in urban areas, particularly of ultrafine sized particles (diameters < 0.1 µm). Exposure to particulate matter has been found to be associated with serious health effects, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Particle emissions generated by motor vehicles span a very broad size range (from around 0.003-10 µm) and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, there exist scientific challenges in analysing and interpreting the large data sets on motor vehicle emission factors, and no understanding is available of the application of different particle metrics as a basis for air quality regulation. To date a comprehensive inventory covering the broad size range of particles emitted by motor vehicles, and which includes particle number, does not exist anywhere in the world. This thesis covers research related to four important and interrelated aspects pertaining to particulate matter generated by motor vehicle fleets. These include the derivation of suitable particle emission factors for use in transport modelling and health impact assessments; quantification of motor vehicle particle emission inventories; investigation of the particle characteristic modality within particle size distributions as a potential for developing air quality regulation; and review and synthesis of current knowledge on ultrafine particles as it relates to motor vehicles; and the application of these aspects to the quantification, control and management of motor vehicle particle emissions. In order to quantify emissions in terms of a comprehensive inventory, which covers the full size range of particles emitted by motor vehicle fleets, it was necessary to derive a suitable set of particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM1 (mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameters < 1 µm, < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm respectively). The very large data set of emission factors analysed in this study were sourced from measurement studies conducted in developed countries, and hence the derived set of emission factors are suitable for preparing inventories in other urban regions of the developed world. These emission factors are particularly useful for regions with a lack of measurement data to derive emission factors, or where experimental data are available but are of insufficient scope. The comprehensive particle emissions inventory presented in this thesis is the first published inventory of tailpipe particle emissions prepared for a motor vehicle fleet, and included the quantification of particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted by vehicles, based on measurement data. The inventory quantified particle emissions measured in terms of particle number and different particle mass size fractions. It was developed for the urban South-East Queensland fleet in Australia, and included testing the particle emission implications of future scenarios for different passenger and freight travel demand. The thesis also presents evidence of the usefulness of examining modality within particle size distributions as a basis for developing air quality regulations; and finds evidence to support the relevance of introducing a new PM1 mass ambient air quality standard for the majority of environments worldwide. The study found that a combination of PM1 and PM10 standards are likely to be a more discerning and suitable set of ambient air quality standards for controlling particles emitted from combustion and mechanically-generated sources, such as motor vehicles, than the current mass standards of PM2.5 and PM10. The study also reviewed and synthesized existing knowledge on ultrafine particles, with a specific focus on those originating from motor vehicles. It found that motor vehicles are significant contributors to both air pollution and ultrafine particles in urban areas, and that a standardized measurement procedure is not currently available for ultrafine particles. The review found discrepancies exist between outcomes of instrumentation used to measure ultrafine particles; that few data is available on ultrafine particle chemistry and composition, long term monitoring; characterization of their spatial and temporal distribution in urban areas; and that no inventories for particle number are available for motor vehicle fleets. This knowledge is critical for epidemiological studies and exposure-response assessment. Conclusions from this review included the recommendation that ultrafine particles in populated urban areas be considered a likely target for future air quality regulation based on particle number, due to their potential impacts on the environment. The research in this PhD thesis successfully integrated the elements needed to quantify and manage motor vehicle fleet emissions, and its novelty relates to the combining of expertise from two distinctly separate disciplines - from aerosol science and transport modelling. The new knowledge and concepts developed in this PhD research provide never before available data and methods which can be used to develop comprehensive, size-resolved inventories of motor vehicle particle emissions, and air quality regulations to control particle emissions to protect the health and well-being of current and future generations.

Land Use & Public Transport Accessibility Index (LUPTAI) tool : the development and pilot application of LUPTAI for the Gold Coast

LUPTAI is a decision-aiding tool to enable local and state governments to optimise land use and transport integration. In contrast to mobility between land uses (typically via road), accessibility represents opportunity and choice to reach common land use destinations by public transport and/or walking. LUPTAI uses a GIS-based methodology to quantify and map accessibility to common land use destinations by walking and/or public transport. The tool can be applied to small or large study areas. It can be applied to the current situation in a study area or to future scenarios (such as scenarios involving changes to public transport services, public transport corridors or stations, population density or land use). The tool has been piloted on the Gold Coast and the results are encouraging. This paper outlines the GIS-based methodology and the findings related to this pilot study. The paper demonstrates benefits and possible application of LUPTAI to other urbanised local government areas in Queensland. It also discusses how this accessibility indexing approach could be developed into a decision-support tool to assist local and state government agencies in a range of transport and land-use planning activities.

Designing disruption : linking participatory design and design thinking in technology orientated industries

A vast proportion of companies nowadays are looking to design and are focusing on the end users as a means of driving new projects. However still many companies are drawn to technological improvements which drive innovation within their industry context. The Australian livestock industry is no different. To date the adoption of new products and services within the livestock industry has been documented as being quite slow. This paper investigates how disruptive innovation should be a priority for these technologically focused companies and demonstrates how the use of design led innovation can bring about a higher quality engagement between end user and company alike. A case study linking participatory design and design thinking is presented. Within this, a conceptual model of presenting future scenarios to internal and external stakeholders is applied to the livestock industry; assisting companies to apply strategy, culture and advancement in meaningful product offerings to consumers.

Social implications of radical technology adoption within the livestock industry - a design investigation: Innovating disruptive technologies in traditional marketplaces

This thesis presents a design investigation into how traditional technology-orientated markets can use design led innovation (DLI) strategies in order to achieve better market penetration of disruptive products. In a review of the Australian livestock industry, considering historical information and present-day trends, a lack of socio-cultural consideration was identified in the design and implementation of products and systems, previously been taken to market. Hence the adoption of these novel products has been documented as extremely slow. Classical diffusion models have typically been used in order to implement these products. However, this thesis poses that it is through the strategic intent of design led innovation, where heavily technology-orientated markets (such as the Australian livestock industry), can achieve better final adoption rates. By considering a range of external factors (business models, technology and user needs), rather than focusing design efforts solely on the technology, it is argued that using DLI approach will lead to disruptive innovations being made easier to adopt in the Australian livestock industry. This thesis therefore explored two research questions: 1. What are the social inhibitors to the adoption of a new technology in the Australian livestock industry? 2. Can design be used to gain a significant feedback response to the proposed innovation? In order to answer these questions, this thesis used a design led innovation approach to investigate the livestock industry, centring on how design can be used early on in the development of disruptive products being taken to market. This thesis used a three stage data collection programme, combining methods of design thinking, co-design and participatory design. The first study found four key themes to the social barriers of technology adoption; Social attitudes to innovation, Market monitoring, Attitude to 3D imaging and Online processes. These themes were built upon through a design thinking/co-design approach to create three ‘future scenarios��� to be tested in participant workshops. The analysis of the data collection found four key socio-cultural barriers that inhibited the adoption of a disruptive innovation in the Australian livestock industry. These were found to be a lack of Education, a Culture of Innovation, a Lack of Engagement and Communication barriers. This thesis recommends five key areas to be focused upon in the subsequent design of a new product in the Australian livestock industry. These recommendations are made to business and design managers looking to introduce disruptive innovations in this industry. Moreover, the thesis presents three design implications relating to stakeholder attitudes, practical constraints and technological restrictions of innovations within the industry.

Foreword

Foreword for the book, "INTERCHANGING: Future designs for responsive transport environments"

Urban Informatics and Public Transport

The holistic urban experience we perceive when immersed in an urban context is at the heart of urban informatics. This experience encompasses all urban elements such as architecture, people, and culture. Urban informatics explores the possibilities and opportunities created by new technologies and information for enhancing the urban experience. Public transport is an essential urban experience. Everyday, urban dwellers takes public transport to commute and move between different parts of the city. Public transport serves people from all over the city and moves them through different places in the city, using different means of transportation. The nature of public transport—involving people, places, and technologies, makes it a fitting context for urban informatics interventions. There are three main aspects of the public transport experience that can readily benefit from urban informatics interventions the: pragmatic aspect, hedonistic aspect, and social aspect. From the pragmatic perspective, these interventions can help people to be more efficient and effective in taking public transport. Hedonistic-related interventions aim to bring enjoyment and fun to our mundane commute. Finally, urban informatics can strengthen the sense of community in a socially-passive context like public transport environments through adopting socially focused interventions.

Creation and copyright law: The case of 3D printing

The Australian Law Reform Commission is conducting an inquiry into copyright law and the digital economy in 2012 and 2013.The President, Rosalind Croucher, stated: “While the Copyright Act has been amended on occasion over the past 12 years to account for digital developments, these changes occurred before the digital economy took off. The Australian Law Reform Commission will need to find reforms that are responsive to this new environment, and to future scenarios that are still in the realm of the imagination. It is a complex and important area of law and we are looking forward to some robust debate and discussion during the course of this very important Inquiry.”

Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Projecting future transmission of malaria under climate change scenarios : challenges and research needs

There has been an intense debate about climatic impacts on the transmission of malaria. It is vitally important to accurately project future impacts of climate change on malaria to support effective policy–making and intervention activity concerning malaria control and prevention. This paper critically reviewed the published literature and examined both key findings and methodological issues in projecting future impacts of climate change on malaria transmission. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases MEDLINE, Web of Science and PubMed. The projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission were spatially heterogeneous and somewhat inconsistent. The variation in results may be explained by the interaction of climatic factors and malaria transmission cycles, variations in projection frameworks and uncertainties of future socioecological (including climate) changes. Current knowledge gaps are identified, future research directions are proposed and public health implications are assessed. Improving the understanding of the dynamic effects of climate on malaria transmission cycles, the advancement of modelling techniques and the incorporation of uncertainties in future socioecological changes are critical factors for projecting the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.

A Method of Preparing Future Hourly Weather Data for the Study of Global Warming Impact on the Built Environment

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition, it is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or wind characters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. A sensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a good linear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation, relative humidity or wind speed.

Abstracting and correlating heterogeneous events to detect complex scenarios

The research presented in this thesis addresses inherent problems in signaturebased intrusion detection systems (IDSs) operating in heterogeneous environments. The research proposes a solution to address the difficulties associated with multistep attack scenario specification and detection for such environments. The research has focused on two distinct problems: the representation of events derived from heterogeneous sources and multi-step attack specification and detection. The first part of the research investigates the application of an event abstraction model to event logs collected from a heterogeneous environment. The event abstraction model comprises a hierarchy of events derived from different log sources such as system audit data, application logs, captured network traffic, and intrusion detection system alerts. Unlike existing event abstraction models where low-level information may be discarded during the abstraction process, the event abstraction model presented in this work preserves all low-level information as well as providing high-level information in the form of abstract events. The event abstraction model presented in this work was designed independently of any particular IDS and thus may be used by any IDS, intrusion forensic tools, or monitoring tools. The second part of the research investigates the use of unification for multi-step attack scenario specification and detection. Multi-step attack scenarios are hard to specify and detect as they often involve the correlation of events from multiple sources which may be affected by time uncertainty. The unification algorithm provides a simple and straightforward scenario matching mechanism by using variable instantiation where variables represent events as defined in the event abstraction model. The third part of the research looks into the solution to address time uncertainty. Clock synchronisation is crucial for detecting multi-step attack scenarios which involve logs from multiple hosts. Issues involving time uncertainty have been largely neglected by intrusion detection research. The system presented in this research introduces two techniques for addressing time uncertainty issues: clock skew compensation and clock drift modelling using linear regression. An off-line IDS prototype for detecting multi-step attacks has been implemented. The prototype comprises two modules: implementation of the abstract event system architecture (AESA) and of the scenario detection module. The scenario detection module implements our signature language developed based on the Python programming language syntax and the unification-based scenario detection engine. The prototype has been evaluated using a publicly available dataset of real attack traffic and event logs and a synthetic dataset. The distinct features of the public dataset are the fact that it contains multi-step attacks which involve multiple hosts with clock skew and clock drift. These features allow us to demonstrate the application and the advantages of the contributions of this research. All instances of multi-step attacks in the dataset have been correctly identified even though there exists a significant clock skew and drift in the dataset. Future work identified by this research would be to develop a refined unification algorithm suitable for processing streams of events to enable an on-line detection. In terms of time uncertainty, identified future work would be to develop mechanisms which allows automatic clock skew and clock drift identification and correction. The immediate application of the research presented in this thesis is the framework of an off-line IDS which processes events from heterogeneous sources using abstraction and which can detect multi-step attack scenarios which may involve time uncertainty.

Sensitivity of building cooling loads to future weather predictions

The interaction and relationship between the global warming and the thermal performance buildings are dynamic in nature. In order to model and understand this behavior, different approaches, including keeping weather variable unchanged, morphing approach and diurnal modelling method, have been used to project and generate future weather data. Among these approaches, various assumptions on the change of solar radiation, air humidity and/or wind characteristics may be adopted. In this paper, an example to illustrate the generation of future weather data for the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. The sensitivity of building cooling loads to the possible changes of assumed values used in the future weather data generation is investigated. It is shown that with ± 10% change of the proposed future values for solar radiation, air humidity or wind characteristics, the corresponding change in the cooling load of the modeled sample office building at different Australian capital cities would not exceed 6%, 4% and 1.5% respectively. It is also found that with ±10% changes on the proposed weather variables for both the 2070-high future scenario and the current weather scenario, the corresponding change in the cooling loads at different locations may be weaker (up to 2% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in global solar radiation), similar (less than 0.6%) difference in Hobart for ±10% change in wind speed), or stronger (up to 1.6% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in relative humidity) in the 2070-high future scenario than in the current weather scenario.