Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.

Analysis of the CDKN2A, CDKN2B and CDK4 genes in 48 Australian melanoma kindreds

Germline mutations within the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A) gene and one of its targets, the cyclin dependent kinase 4 (CDK4) gene, have been identified in a proportion of melanoma kindreds. In the case of CDK4, only one specific mutation, resulting in the substitution of a cysteine for an arginine at codon 24 (R24C), has been found to be associated with melanoma. We have previously reported the identification of germline CDKN2A mutations in 7/18 Australian melanoma kindreds and the absence of the R24C CDK4 mutation in 21 families lacking evidence of a CDKN2A mutation. The current study represents an expansion of these efforts and includes a total of 48 melanoma families from Australia. All of these families have now been screened for mutations within CDKN2A and CDK4, as well as for mutations within the CDKN2A homolog and 9p21 neighbor, the CDKN2B gene, and the alternative exon 1 (E1beta) of CDKN2A. Families lacking CDKN2A mutations, but positive for a polymorphism(s) within this gene, were further evaluated to determine if their disease was associated with transcriptional silencing of one CDKN2A allele. Overall, CDKN2A mutations were detected in 3/30 (10%) of the new kindreds. Two of these mutations have been observed previously: a 24 bp duplication at the 5' end of the gene and a G to C transversion in exon 2 resulting in an M531 substitution. A novel G to A transition in exon 2, resulting in a D108N substitution was also detected. Combined with our previous findings, we have now detected germline CDKN2A mutations in 10/48 (21%) of our melanoma kindreds. In none of the 'CDKN2A-negative' families was melanoma found to segregate with either an untranscribed CDKN2A allele, an R24C CDK4 mutation, a CDKN2B mutation, or an E1beta mutation. The last three observations suggest that these other cell cycle control genes (or alternative gene products) are either not involved at all, or to any great extent, in melanoma predisposition.

IODP Expedition 339 in the Gulf of Cadiz and off West Iberia : decoding the environmental significance of the Mediterranean outflow water and its global influence

IODP Expedition 339 drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two off the west Iberian margin (November 2011 to January 2012), and recovered 5.5 km of sediment cores with an average recovery of 86.4%. The Gulf of Cadiz was targeted for drilling as a key location for the investigation of Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) through the Gibraltar Gateway and its influence on global circulation and climate. It is also a prime area for understanding the effects of tectonic activity on evolution of the Gibraltar Gateway and on margin sedimentation. We penetrated into the Miocene at two different sites and established a strong signal of MOW in the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Cadiz, following the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway. Preliminary results show the initiation of contourite deposition at 4.2–4.5 Ma, although subsequent research will establish whether this dates the onset of MOW. The Pliocene succession, penetrated at four sites, shows low bottom current activity linked with a weak MOW. Significant widespread unconformities, present in all sites but with hiatuses of variable duration, are interpreted as a signal of intensified MOW, coupled with flow confinement. The Quaternary succession shows a much more pronounced phase of contourite drift development, with two periods of MOW intensification separated by a widespread unconformity. Following this, the final phase of drift evolution established the contourite depositional system (CDS) architecture we see today. There is a significant climate control on this evolution of MOW and bottom-current activity. However, from the closure of the Atlantic–Mediterranean gateways in Spain and Morocco just over 6 Ma and the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway at 5.3 Ma, there has been an even stronger tectonic control on margin development, downslope sediment transport and contourite drift evolution. The Gulf of Cadiz is the world's premier contourite laboratory and thus presents an ideal testing ground for the contourite paradigm. Further study of these contourites will allow us to resolve outstanding issues related to depositional processes, drift budgets, and recognition of fossil contourites in the ancient record on shore. The expedition also verified an enormous quantity and extensive distribution of contourite sands that are clean and well sorted. These represent a relatively untapped and important exploration target for potential oil and gas reservoirs.

The "Shackleton Site" (IODP Site U1385) on the Iberian Margin

Nick Shackleton’s research on piston cores from the Iberian margin highlighted the importance of this region for providing high-fidelity records of millennial-scale climate variability, and for correlating climate events from the marine environment to polar ice cores and European terrestrial sequences. During the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 339, we sought to extend the Iberian margin sediment record by drilling with the D/V JOIDES Resolution. Five holes were cored at Site U1385 using the advanced piston corer (APC) system to a maximum depth of ∼ 155.9 m below sea floor (m b.s.f.). Immediately after the expedition, cores from all holes were analyzed by core scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) at 1 cm spatial resolution. Ca/Ti data were used to accurately correlate from hole-to-hole and construct a composite spliced section, containing no gaps or disturbed intervals to 166.5 m composite depth (mcd). A low-resolution (20 cm sample spacing) oxygen isotope record confirms that Site U1385 contains a continuous record of hemipelagic sedimentation from the Holocene to 1.43 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage 46). The sediment profile at Site U1385 extends across the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) with sedimentation rates averaging ∼ 10 cm kyr−1. Strongprecession cycles in colour and elemental XRF signals provide a powerful tool for developing an orbitally tuned reference timescale. Site U1385 is likely to become an important type section for marine–ice–terrestrial core correlations and the study of orbital- and millennial-scale climate variability.

Quantitative estimation of bioturbation based on digital image analysis

Quantitative determination of modification of primary sediment features, by the activity of organisms (i.e., bioturbation) is essential in geosciences. Some methods proposed since the 1960s are mainly based on visual or subjective determinations. The first semiquantitative evaluations of the Bioturbation Index, Ichnofabric Index, or the amount of bioturbation were attempted, in the best cases using a series of flashcards designed in different situations. Recently, more effective methods involve the use of analytical and computational methods such as X-rays, magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography; these methods are complex and often expensive. This paper presents a compilation of different methods, using Adobe® Photoshop® software CS6, for digital estimation that are a part of the IDIAP (Ichnological Digital Analysis Images Package), which is an inexpensive alternative to recently proposed methods, easy to use, and especially recommended for core samples. The different methods — “Similar Pixel Selection Method (SPSM)”, “Magic Wand Method (MWM)” and the “Color Range Selection Method (CRSM)” — entail advantages and disadvantages depending on the sediment (e.g., composition, color, texture, porosity, etc.) and ichnological features (size of traces, infilling material, burrow wall, etc.). The IDIAP provides an estimation of the amount of trace fossils produced by a particular ichnotaxon, by a whole ichnocoenosis or even for a complete ichnofabric. We recommend the application of the complete IDIAP to a given case study, followed by selection of the most appropriate method. The IDIAP was applied to core material recovered from the IODP Expedition 339, enabling us, for the first time, to arrive at a quantitative estimation of the discrete trace fossil assemblage in core samples.

Onset of Mediterranean outflow into the North Atlantic

Sediments cored along the southwestern Iberian margin during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 339 provide constraints on Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) circulation patterns from the Pliocene epoch to the present day. After the Strait of Gibraltar opened (5.33 million years ago), a limited volume of MOW entered the Atlantic. Depositional hiatuses indicate erosion by bottom currents related to higher volumes of MOW circulating into the North Atlantic, beginning in the late Pliocene. The hiatuses coincide with regional tectonic events and changes in global thermohaline circulation (THC). This suggests that MOW influenced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), THC, and climatic shifts by contributing a component of warm, saline water to northern latitudes while in turn being influenced by plate tectonics.

Trapping to monitor tephritid movement: Results, best practice, and assessment of alternatives

Movement of tephritid flies underpins their survival, reproduction, and ability to establish in new areas and is thus of importance when designing effective management strategies. Much of the knowledge currently available on tephritid movement throughout landscapes comes from the use of direct or indirect methods that rely on the trapping of individuals. Here, we review published experimental designs and methods from mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies, as well as other methods, that have been used to estimate movement of the four major tephritid pest genera (Bactrocera, Ceratitis, Anastrepha, and Rhagoletis). In doing so, we aim to illustrate the theoretical and practical considerations needed to study tephritid movement. MRR studies make use of traps to directly estimate the distance that tephritid species can move within a generation and to evaluate the ecological and physiological factors that influence dispersal patterns. MRR studies, however, require careful planning to ensure that the results obtained are not biased by the methods employed, including marking methods, trap properties, trap spacing, and spatial extent of the trapping array. Despite these obstacles, MRR remains a powerful tool for determining tephritid movement, with data particularly required for understudied species that affect developing countries. To ensure that future MRR studies are successful, we suggest that site selection be carefully considered and sufficient resources be allocated to achieve optimal spacing and placement of traps in line with the stated aims of each study. An alternative to MRR is to make use of indirect methods for determining movement, or more correctly, gene flow, which have become widely available with the development of molecular tools. Key to these methods is the trapping and sequencing of a suitable number of individuals to represent the genetic diversity of the sampled population and investigate population structuring using nuclear genomic markers or non-recombinant mitochondrial DNA markers. Microsatellites are currently the preferred marker for detecting recent population displacement and provide genetic information that may be used in assignment tests for the direct determination of contemporary movement. Neither MRR nor molecular methods, however, are able to monitor fine-scale movements of individual flies. Recent developments in the miniaturization of electronics offer the tantalising possibility to track individual movements of insects using harmonic radar. Computer vision and radio frequency identification tags may also permit the tracking of fine-scale movements by tephritid flies by automated resampling, although these methods come with the same problems as traditional traps used in MRR studies. Although all methods described in this chapter have limitations, a better understanding of tephritid movement far outweighs the drawbacks of the individual methods because of the need for this information to manage tephritid populations.

The complexities of knowing what it is you are trapping

The effectiveness of any trapping system is highly dependent on the ability to accurately identify the specimens collected. For many fruit fly species, accurate identification (= diagnostics) using morphological or molecular techniques is relatively straightforward and poses few technical challenges. However, nearly all genera of pest tephritids also contain groups of species where single, stand-alone tools are not sufficient for accurate identification: such groups include the Bactrocera dorsalis complex, the Anastrepha fraterculus complex and the Ceratitis FAR complex. Misidentification of high-impact species from such groups can have dramatic consequences and negate the benefits of an otherwise effective trapping program. To help prevent such problems, this chapter defines what is meant by a species complex and describes in detail how the correct identification of species within a complex requires the use of an integrative taxonomic approach. Integrative taxonomy uses multiple, independent lines of evidence to delimit species boundaries, and the underpinnings of this approach from both the theoretical speciation literature and the systematics/taxonomy literature are described. The strength of the integrative approach lies in the explicit testing of hypotheses and the use of multiple, independent species delimitation tools. A case is made for a core set of species delimitation tools (pre- and post-zygotic compatibility tests, multi-locus phylogenetic analysis, chemoecological studies, and morphometric and geometric morphometric analyses) to be adopted as standards by tephritologists aiming to resolve economically important species complexes. In discussing the integrative approach, emphasis is placed on the subtle but important differences between integrative and iterative taxonomy. The chapter finishes with a case study that illustrates how iterative taxonomy applied to the B. dorsalis species complex led to incorrect taxonomic conclusions, which has had major implications for quarantine, trade, and horticultural pest management. In contrast, an integrative approach to the problem has resolved species limits in this taxonomically difficult group, meaning that robust diagnostics are now available.