Property cash flow studies : focusing on model consistency and data accuracy

The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.

Free surface flow into a horizontal slot with zero gravity

The two-dimensional free surface flow of a finite-depth fluid into a horizontal slot is considered. For this study, the effects of viscosity and gravity are ignored. A generalised Schwarz-Christoffel mapping is used to formulate the problem in terms of a linear integral equation, which is solved exactly with the use of a Fourier transform. The resulting free surface profile is given explicitly in closed-form.

Minimising wave drag for free surface flow past a two-dimensional stern

Free surface flow past a two-dimensional semi-infinite curved plate is considered, with emphasis given to solving for the shape of the resulting wave train that appears downstream on the surface of the fluid. This flow configuration can be interpreted as applying near the stern of a wide blunt ship. For steady flow in a fluid of finite depth, we apply the Wiener-Hopf technique to solve a linearised problem, valid for small perturbations of the uniform stream. Weakly nonlinear results found using a forced KdV equation are also presented, as are numerical solutions to the fully nonlinear problem, computed using a conformal mapping and a boundary integral technique. By considering different families of shapes for the semi-infinite plate, it is shown how the amplitude of the waves can be minimised. For plates that increase in height as a function of the direction of flow, reach a local maximum, and then point slightly downwards at the point at which the free surface detaches, it appears the downstream wavetrain can be eliminated entirely.

Free surface flow past topography : a beyond-all-orders approach

The problem of steady subcritical free surface flow past a submerged inclined step is considered. The asymptotic limit of small Froude number is treated, with particular emphasis on the effect that changing the angle of the step face has on the surface waves. As demonstrated by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006), the divergence of a power series expansion in powers of the square of the Froude number is caused by singularities in the analytic continuation of the free surface; for an inclined step, these singularities may correspond to either the corners or stagnation points of the step, or both, depending on the angle of incline. Stokes lines emanate from these singularities, and exponentially small waves are switched on at the point the Stokes lines intersect with the free surface. Our results suggest that for a certain range of step angles, two wavetrains are switched on, but the exponentially subdominant one is switched on first, leading to an intermediate wavetrain not previously noted. We extend these ideas to the problem of flow over a submerged bump or trench, again with inclined sides. This time there may be two, three or four active Stokes lines, depending on the inclination angles. We demonstrate how to construct a base topography such that wave contributions from separate Stokes lines are of equal magnitude but opposite phase, thus cancelling out. Our asymptotic results are complemented by numerical solutions to the fully nonlinear equations.

Exponential asymptotics of free surface flow due to a line source

The steady problem of free surface flow due to a submerged line source is revisited for the case in which the fluid depth is finite and there is a stagnation point on the free surface directly above the source. Both the strength of the source and the fluid speed in the far field are measured by a dimensionless parameter, the Froude number. By applying techniques in exponential asymptotics, it is shown that there is a train of periodic waves on the surface of the fluid with an amplitude which is exponentially small in the limit that the Froude number vanishes. This study clarifies that periodic waves do form for flows due to a source, contrary to a suggestion by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006, J. Fluid Mech., 567, 299--326). The exponentially small nature of the waves means they appear beyond all orders of the original power series expansion; this result explains why attempts at describing these flows using a finite number of terms in an algebraic power series incorrectly predict a flat free surface in the far field.

Free-surface flow past arbitrary topography and an inverse approach for wave-free solutions

An efficient numerical method to compute nonlinear solutions for two-dimensional steady free-surface flow over an arbitrary channel bottom topography is presented. The approach is based on a boundary integral equation technique which is similar to that of Vanden-Broeck's (1996, J. Fluid Mech., 330, 339-347). The typical approach for this problem is to prescribe the shape of the channel bottom topography, with the free-surface being provided as part of the solution. Here we take an inverse approach and prescribe the shape of the free-surface a priori while solving for the corresponding bottom topography. We show how this inverse approach is particularly useful when studying topographies that give rise to wave-free solutions, allowing us to easily classify eleven basic flow types. Finally, the inverse approach is also adapted to calculate a distribution of pressure on the free-surface, given the free-surface shape itself.

Private equity bids in Australia : an exploratory study

In this study, we provide an insight into how private equity players choose their targets and the bid arrangements they prefer. We test our expectations of the unique features of private equity targets using a sample of 23 listed private equity target firms during 2001–2007. We find, relative to a benchmark sample of 81 corporate targets matched by year and industry, the private equity target firms to be larger, more profitable, use their assets more efficiently, more highly levered and have greater cash flow. Multivariate testing indicates that private equity targets have relatively greater financial slack, greater financial stability, greater free cash flow and lower measurable growth prospects. All conclusions are found to be robust to a control sample of 502 takeover bids during 2001–2007.

Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov methods with GPU acceleration for computing nonlinear ship wave patterns

The nonlinear problem of steady free-surface flow past a submerged source is considered as a case study for three-dimensional ship wave problems. Of particular interest is the distinctive wedge-shaped wave pattern that forms on the surface of the fluid. By reformulating the governing equations with a standard boundary-integral method, we derive a system of nonlinear algebraic equations that enforce a singular integro-differential equation at each midpoint on a two-dimensional mesh. Our contribution is to solve the system of equations with a Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method together with a banded preconditioner that is carefully constructed with entries taken from the Jacobian of the linearised problem. Further, we are able to utilise graphics processing unit acceleration to significantly increase the grid refinement and decrease the run-time of our solutions in comparison to schemes that are presently employed in the literature. Our approach provides opportunities to explore the nonlinear features of three-dimensional ship wave patterns, such as the shape of steep waves close to their limiting configuration, in a manner that has been possible in the two-dimensional analogue for some time.

Accounting : building business skills, 3rd ed.

The new edition of this widely used and respected introductory accounting textbook continues to provide students and academics with a well written and accessible resource, with ample illustrations and applications to business for a first study of accounting. The text effectively maintains the balance between a 'user' and 'preparer' perspective by integrating real financial information and business decisions throughout. Through the use of real company information and financial statements students will quickly appreciate the use and users of accounting information. The textbook clearly outlines to students how a financial statement - such as a balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement - communicates the financing, operating, and investing activities of a business. The text builds a strong conceptual understanding and develops skills in the application of accounting principles and techniques, providing students with a solid foundation for further studies in accounting. The integral role of financial statements for decision making is also emphasised in this text and is reinforced throughout by the Decision Toolkit in each chapter. Students are provided with an extensive set of tools necessary to make business decisions based on financial information.

Evaluation of functional performance in commercial buildings

This report fully summarises a project designed to enhance commercial real estate performance within both operational and investment contexts through the development of a model aimed at supporting improved decision-making. The model is based on a risk adjusted discounted cash flow, providing a valuable toolkit for building managers, owners, and potential investors for evaluating individual building performance in terms of financial, social and environmental criteria over the complete life-cycle of the asset. The ‘triple bottom line’ approach to the evaluation of commercial property has much significance for the administrators of public property portfolios in particular. It also has applications more generally for the wider real estate industry given that the advent of ‘green’ construction requires new methods for evaluating both new and existing building stocks. The research is unique in that it focuses on the accuracy of the input variables required for the model. These key variables were largely determined by market-based research and an extensive literature review, and have been fine-tuned with extensive testing. In essence, the project has considered probability-based risk analysis techniques that required market-based assessment. The projections listed in the partner engineers’ building audit reports of the four case study buildings were fed into the property evaluation model developed by the research team. The results are strongly consistent with previously existing, less robust evaluation techniques. And importantly, this model pioneers an approach for taking full account of the triple bottom line, establishing a benchmark for related research to follow. The project’s industry partners expressed a high degree of satisfaction with the project outcomes at a recent demonstration seminar. The project in its existing form has not been geared towards commercial applications but it is anticipated that QDPW and other industry partners will benefit greatly by using this tool for the performance evaluation of property assets. The project met the objectives of the original proposal as well as all the specified milestones. The project has been completed within budget and on time. This research project has achieved the objective by establishing research foci on the model structure, the key input variable identification, the drivers of the relevant property markets, the determinants of the key variables (Research Engine no.1), the examination of risk measurement, the incorporation of risk simulation exercises (Research Engine no.2), the importance of both environmental and social factors and, finally the impact of the triple bottom line measures on the asset (Research Engine no. 3).

Safer construction voluntary code of practice : implications for SMEs

The majority of Australian construction firms are small businesses, with 97% of general construction businesses employing less than 20 employees and 85% employing less than five employees (Lin and Mills, 2001; Lingard and Holmes, 2001). The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ definition of a small to medium enterprise was used for the purpose of this study (McLennan, 2000). This included small business employing less than twenty people and medium business employing less than 200 people. Although small to medium enterprises (SME) make up the major share of construction organisations in Australia, there is a paucity of published research in relation to occupational health and safety (OHS) issues for this group. Typically, SME organisations “are frequently undercapitalized and depend on continuous cash flow for their continued business” (Cole, 2003; 12). Research by Lin and Mills (2001) indicates that these factors influence the smaller operators’ ability and motivation to achieve high levels of OHS compared to larger firms which tend to integrate OHS into their management systems. According to Lin and Mills (2001; 137) small firms “do not feel the need to focus on OHS in their management systems, instead they often believe that the control of risk is the responsibility of employees”. This report documents findings from a qualitative research study that examined SME organisations’ views of a newly developed voluntary code of practice (VCOP), and ways in which they might implement the code in their businesses. The research also explored respondents’ awareness of current safety issues in industry in the context of their personal experiences.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of valuers and agribusiness managers on farm management and sustainable rural land use

Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method, which can focus on the long term environmental and economic sustainability of the property being valued. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and sustainable rural land use. A particular focus of the research relates to the increased awareness of the problems of rural land degradation in Australia and the subsequent impact such problems have on the productivity of rural land. These problems of sustainable land use have resulted in the need to develop an approach to rural valuation practice that allows the valuer to factor the past management practices on the subject rural property into the actual valuation figure. An analysis of the past farm management and the inclusion of this data into the valuation methodology provides a much more reliable indication of farm sustainable economic value than the existing direct comparison valuation methodology.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of NSW valuers and agribusiness managers

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of Commercial, Industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although number of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, as well as the long term environmental viability of the farm, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method, especially in view of the impact that farm technical, financial and environmental .management can have on rural property values. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers and agribusiness managers in NSW, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property valuation practice.

The use of income valuation methods to value rural property

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of commercial, industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although the majority of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice should have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property income potential.

Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.