Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Land use effects on soil carbon fractions in the southeastern United States. I. Management-intensive versus extensive grazing

Changes in grassland management intended to increase productivity can lead to sequestration of substantial amounts of atmospheric C in soils. Management-intensive grazing (MiG) can increase forage production in mesic pastures, but potential impacts on soil C have not been evaluated. We sampled four pastures (to 50 cm depth) in Virginia, USA, under MiG and neighboring pastures that were extensively grazed or bayed to evaluate impacts of grazing management on total soil organic C and N pools, and soil C fractions. Total organic soil C averaged 8.4 Mg C ha(-1) (22%) greater under MiG; differences were significant at three of the four sites examined while total soil N was greater for two sites. Surface (0-10 cm) particulate organic matter (POM) C increased at two sites; POM C for the entire depth increment (0-50 cm) did not differ significantly between grazing treatments at any of the sites. Mineral-associated C was related to silt plus clay content and tended to be greater under MiG. Neither soil C:N ratios, POM C, or POM C:total C ratios were accurate indicators of differences in total soil C between grazing treatments, though differences in total soil C between treatments attributable to changes in POM C (43%) were larger than expected based on POM C as a percentage of total C (24.5%). Soil C sequestration rates, estimated by calculating total organic soil C differences between treatments (assuming they arose from changing grazing management and can be achieved elsewhere) and dividing by duration of treatment, averaged 0.41 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) across the four sites.

Let them bloom : Growing colourful citizens with caring classroom teachers

This paper examines the essential qualities of a good classroom teacher. The analogy of a caring gardener who understands the individual growing needs of a vast variety of plants is used. The paper argues for the freedom to have differing non-sectarian curricula and for trust to be placed in the teaching profession.

Rapid host adaptation by extensive recombination

Experimental investigations into virus recombination can provide valuable insights into the biochemical mechanisms and the evolutionary value of this fundamental biological process. Here, we describe an experimental scheme for studying recombination that should be applicable to any recombinogenic viruses amenable to the production of synthetic infectious genomes. Our approach is based on differences in fitness that generally exist between synthetic chimaeric genomes and the wild-type viruses from which they are constructed. In mixed infections of defective reciprocal chimaeras, selection strongly favours recombinant progeny genomes that recover a portion of wild-type fitness. Characterizing these evolved progeny viruses can highlight both important genetic fitness determinants and the contribution that recombination makes to the evolution of their natural relatives. Moreover, these experiments supply precise information about the frequency and distribution of recombination breakpoints, which can shed light on the mechanistic processes underlying recombination. We demonstrate the value of this approach using the small single-stranded DNA geminivirus, maize streak virus (MSV). Our results show that adaptive recombination in this virus is extremely efficient and can yield complex progeny genomes comprising up to 18 recombination breakpoints. The patterns of recombination that we observe strongly imply that the mechanistic processes underlying rolling circle replication are the prime determinants of recombination breakpoint distributions found in MSV genomes sampled from nature. © 2009 SGM.

Extensive charge-discharge cycling of lithium metal electrodes achieved using ionic liquid electrolytes

The effect of extended cycling on lithium metal electrodes has been investigated in an ionic liquid electrolyte. Cycling studies were conducted on lithium metal electrodes in a symmetrical Li|electrolyte|Li coin cell configuration for 5000 charge–discharge cycles at a current density of 0.1 mA cm− 2. The voltage–time plots show evidence of some unstable behavior which is attributed to surface reorganization. No evidence for lithium dendrite induced short circuiting was observed. SEM imaging showed morphology changes had occurred but no evidence of needle-like dendrite based growth was found after 5000 charge–discharge cycles. This study suggests that ionic liquid electrolytes can enable next generation battery technologies such as rechargeable lithium-air, in which a safe, reversible lithium electrode is a crucial component.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Experiences with control of evaporators using extensive vapour bleeding

FOR SUGAR factories with cogeneration plants major changes to the process stations have been undertaken to reduce the consumption of exhaust steam from the turbines and maximise the generated power. In many cases the process steam consumption has been reduced from greater than 52% on cane to ~40% on cane. The main changes have been to install additional evaporation area at the front of the set, operate the pan stages on vapour from No 1 or No 2 effects and undertake juice heating using vapour bleed from evaporators as far down the set as the penultimate stage. Operationally, one of the main challenges has been to develop a control system for the evaporators that addresses the objectives of juice processing rate (throughput) and steam economy, while producing syrup consistently at the required brix and providing an adequate and consistent vapour pressure for the pan stage operations. The cyclic demand for vapour by batch pans causes process disturbances through the evaporator set and these must be regulated in an effective manner to satisfy the above list of objectives for the evaporator station. The impact of the cyclic pan stage vapour demand has been modelled to define the impact on juice rate, steam economy, syrup brix and head space pressures in the evaporators. Experiences with the control schemes used at Pioneer and Rocky Point Mills are discussed. For each factory the paper provides information on (a) the control system used, the philosophy behind the control system and experiences in reaching the current system for control (b) the performance of the control system to handle the disturbances imposed by the pan stage and operate within other constraints of the factory (c) deficiencies in the current system and plans for further improvements. Other processing changes to boost the performance of the evaporators are also discussed.

Variation in the OC locus of Acinetobacter baumannii genomes predicts extensive structural diversity in the Lipooligosaccharide

Lipooligosaccharide (LOS) is a complex surface structure that is linked to many pathogenic properties of Acinetobacter baumannii. In A. baumannii, the genes responsible for the synthesis of the outer core (OC) component of the LOS are located between ilvE and aspS. The content of the OC locus is usually variable within a species, and examination of 6 complete and 227 draft A. baumannii genome sequences available in GenBank non-redundant and Whole Genome Shotgun databases revealed nine distinct new types, OCL4-OCL12, in addition to the three known ones. The twelve gene clusters fell into two distinct groups, designated Group A and Group B, based on similarities in the genes present. OCL6 (Group B) was unique in that it included genes for the synthesis of L-Rhamnosep. Genetic exchange of the different configurations between strains has occurred as some OC forms were found in several different sequence types (STs). OCL1 (Group A) was the most widely distributed being present in 18 STs, and OCL6 was found in 16 STs. Variation within clones was also observed, with more than one OC locus type found in the two globally disseminated clones, GC1 and GC2, that include the majority of multiply antibiotic resistant isolates. OCL1 was the most abundant gene cluster in both GC1 and GC2 genomes but GC1 isolates also carried OCL2, OCL3 or OCL5, and OCL3 was also present in GC2. As replacement of the OC locus in the major global clones indicates the presence of sub-lineages, a PCR typing scheme was developed to rapidly distinguish Group A and Group B types, and to distinguish the specific forms found in GC1 and GC2 isolates.

Airborne particulate matter at a bus station : concentration levels and governing parameters

Traffic emissions are an important contributor to ambient air pollution, especially in large cities featuring extensive and high density traffic networks. Bus fleets represent a significant part of inner city traffic causing an increase in exposure to general public, passengers and drivers along bus routes and at bus stations. Limited information is available on quantification of the levels, and governing parameters affecting the air pollution exposure at bus stations. The presented study investigated the bus emissions-dominated ambient air in a large, inner city bus station, with a specific focus on submicrometer particles. The study’s objectives were (i) quantification of the concentration levels; (ii) characterisation of the spatio-temporal variation; (iii) identification of the parameters governing the emissions levels at the bus station and (iv) assessment of the relationship between particle concentrations measured at the street level (background) and within the bus station. The results show that up to 90% of the emissions at the station are ultrafine particles (smaller than 100 nm), with the concentration levels up to 10 times the value of urban ambient air background (annual) and up to 4 times the local ambient air background. The governing parameters affecting particle concentration at the station were bus flow rate and meteorological conditions (wind velocity). Particle concentration followed a diurnal trend, with an increase in the morning and evening, associated with traffic rush hours. Passengers’ exposure could be significant compared to the average outdoor and indoor exposure levels.

Relationship between indoor/outdoor concentrations of particles : a critical review

The relationship between indoor and outdoor concentration levels of particles in the absence and in the presence of indoor sources has been attracting an increasing level of attention. Understanding of the relationship and the mechanisms driving it, as well as the ability to quantify it, are of importance for assessment of source contribution, assessment of human exposure and for control and management of particles. It became particularly important to address this topic when evidence came from epidemiological studies on the close association between outdoor concentration levels of particles and health effects, yet with many studies showing that indoor concentrations could be significantly higher than those outdoors. This paper presents a summary of an extensive literature review on this topic conducted with an aim to identify general trends in relation to the I/O relationship emerging from studies conducted worldwide. The review considered separately a larger body of papers published on PM10, PM2.5, as well as the smaller database on particle number and number or volume size distribution. A specific focus of this paper is on naturally ventilated houses. The conclusion from the review is that despite the multiplicity of factors that play role in affecting the relationship, there are clear trends emerging in relation to the I/O relationship for particle mass concentration, enabling more general predictions to be made about the relationship. However, more research is still needed on particle number concentration and size distribution.

Modeling key compromise impersonation attacks on group key exchange protocols

A key exchange protocol allows a set of parties to agree upon a secret session key over a public network. Two-party key exchange (2PKE) protocols have been rigorously analyzed under various models considering different adversarial actions. However, the analysis of group key exchange (GKE) protocols has not been as extensive as that of 2PKE protocols. Particularly, the security attribute of key compromise impersonation (KCI) resilience has so far been ignored for the case of GKE protocols. We first model the security of GKE protocols addressing KCI attacks by both outsider and insider adversaries. We then show that a few existing protocols are not secure even against outsider KCI attacks. The attacks on these protocols demonstrate the necessity of considering KCI resilience for GKE protocols. Finally, we give a new proof of security for an existing GKE protocol under the revised model assuming random oracles.