Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Event-related brain potentials dissociate the developmental time-course of automatic numerical magnitude analysis and cognitive control functions during the first three years of primary school

In this study we set out to dissociate the developmental time course of automatic symbolic number processing and cognitive control functions in grade 1-3 British primary school children. Event-related potential (ERP) and behavioral data were collected in a physical size discrimination numerical Stroop task. Task-irrelevant numerical information was processed automatically already in grade 1. Weakening interference and strengthening facilitation indicated the parallel development of general cognitive control and automatic number processing. Relationships among ERP and behavioral effects suggest that control functions play a larger role in younger children and that automaticity of number processing increases from grade 1 to 3.

Expression and in vitro functions of the ghrelin axis in endometrial cancer

Ghrelin is a peptide hormone produced in the stomach and a range of other tissues, where it has endocrine, paracrine and autocrine roles in both normal and disease states. Ghrelin has been shown to be an important growth factor for a number of tumours, including prostate and breast cancers. In this study, we examined the expression of the ghrelin axis (ghrelin and its receptor, the growth hormone secretagogue receptor, GHSR) in endometrial cancer. Ghrelin is expressed in a range of endometrial cancer tissues, while its cognate receptor, GHSR1a, is expressed in a small subset of normal and cancer tissues. Low to moderately invasive endometrial cancer cell lines were examined by RT-PCR and immunoblotting, demonstrating that ghrelin axis mRNA and protein expression correlate with differentiation status of Ishikawa, HEC1B and KLE endometrial cancer cell lines. Moreover, treatment with ghrelin potently stimulated cell proliferation and inhibited cell death. Taken together, these data indicate that ghrelin promotes the progression of endometrial cancer cells in vitro, and may contribute to endometrial cancer pathogenesis and represent a novel treatment target.

MöBIUS-α commutative functions and partially coincident functions

The M¨obius transform of Boolean functions is often involved in cryptographic design and analysis. As studied previously, a Boolean function f is said to be coincident if it is identical with its M¨obius transform fμ, i.e., f = fμ...

Examining the predictive value of combining the theory of planned behaviour and the volunteer functions inventory

The functions of the volunteer functions inventory were combined with the constructs of the theory of planned behaviour (i.e., attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control) to establish whether a stronger, single explanatory model prevailed. Undertaken in the context of episodic, skilled volunteering by individuals who were retired or approaching retirement (N = 186), the research advances on prior studies which either examined the predictive capacity of each model independently or compared their explanatory value. Using hierarchical regression analysis, the functions of the volunteer functions inventory (when controlling for demographic variables) explained an additional 7.0% of variability in individuals’ willingness to volunteer over and above that accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. Significant predictors in the final model included attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control from the theory of planned behaviour and the understanding function from the volunteer functions inventory. It is proposed that the items comprising the understanding function may represent a deeper psychological construct (e.g., self-actualisation) not accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. The findings highlight the potential benefit of combining these two prominent models in terms of improving understanding of volunteerism and providing a single parsimonious model for raising rates of this important behaviour.

Informal interactions between audit committees and internal audit functions : exploratory evidence and directions for future research

Purpose – This paper aims to recognise the importance of informal processes within corporate governance and complement existing research in this area by investigating factors associated with the existence of informal interactions between audit committees and internal audit functions and in providing directions for future research. Design/methodology/approach – To examine the existence and drivers of informal interactions between audit committees and internal audit functions, this paper relies on a questionnaire survey of chief audit executives (CAEs) in the UK from listed and non-listed, as well as financial and non-financial, companies. While prior qualitative research suggests that informal interactions do take place, most of the evidence is based on particular organisational setting or on a very small range of interviews. The use of a questionnaire enabled the examination of the existence of internal interactions across a relatively larger number of entities. Findings – The paper finds evidence of audit committees and internal audit functions engaging in informal interactions in addition to formal pre-scheduled regular meetings. Informal interactions complement formal meetings with the audit committee and as such represent additional opportunities for the audit committees to monitor internal audit functions. Audit committees’ informal interactions are significantly and positively associated with audit committee independence, audit chair’s knowledge and experience, and internal audit quality. Originality/value – The results demonstrate the importance of the background of the audit committee chair for the effectiveness of the governance process. This is possibly the first paper to examine the relationship between audit committee quality and internal audit, on the existence and driver of informal interactions. Policy makers should recognize that in addition to formal mechanisms, informal processes, such as communication outside of formal pre-scheduled meetings, play a significant role in corporate governance.

GPU accelerated algorithms for computing matrix function vector products with applications to exponential integrators and fractional diffusion

The efficient computation of matrix function vector products has become an important area of research in recent times, driven in particular by two important applications: the numerical solution of fractional partial differential equations and the integration of large systems of ordinary differential equations. In this work we consider a problem that combines these two applications, in the form of a numerical solution algorithm for fractional reaction diffusion equations that after spatial discretisation, is advanced in time using the exponential Euler method. We focus on the efficient implementation of the algorithm on Graphics Processing Units (GPU), as we wish to make use of the increased computational power available with this hardware. We compute the matrix function vector products using the contour integration method in [N. Hale, N. Higham, and L. Trefethen. Computing Aα, log(A), and related matrix functions by contour integrals. SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 46(5):2505–2523, 2008]. Multiple levels of preconditioning are applied to reduce the GPU memory footprint and to further accelerate convergence. We also derive an error bound for the convergence of the contour integral method that allows us to pre-determine the appropriate number of quadrature points. Results are presented that demonstrate the effectiveness of the method for large two-dimensional problems, showing a speedup of more than an order of magnitude compared to a CPU-only implementation.

Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].

Music, media and making : humanising digital media in music education

This paper examines three functions of music technology in the study of music. Firstly, as a tool, secondly, as an instrument and, lastly, as a medium for thinking. As our societies become increasingly embroiled in digital media for representation and communication, our philosophies of music education need to adapt to integrate these developments while maintaining the essence of music. The foundation of music technology in the 1990s is the digital representation of sound. It is this fundamental shift to a new medium with which to represent sound that carries with it the challenge to address digital technology and its multiple effects on music creation and presentation. In this paper I suggest that music institutions should take a broad and integrated approach to the place of music technology in their courses, based on the understanding of digital representation of sound and these three functions it can serve. Educators should reconsider digital technologies such as synthesizers and computers as music instruments and cognitive amplifiers, not simply as efficient tools.

Maintenance chain integration using Petri-net enabled multiagent system modeling and implementation approach

Engineering asset management (EAM) is a broad discipline and the EAM functions and processes are characterized by its distributed nature. However, engineering asset nowadays mostly relies on self-maintained experiential rule bases and periodic maintenance, which is lacking a collaborative engineering approach. This research proposes a collaborative environment integrated by a service center with domain expertise such as diagnosis, prognosis, and asset operations. The collaborative maintenance chain combines asset operation sites, service center (i.e., maintenance operation coordinator), system provider, first tier collaborators, and maintenance part suppliers. Meanwhile, to realize the automation of communication and negotiation among organizations, multiagent system (MAS) technique is applied to enhance the entire service level. During the MAS design processes, this research combines Prometheus MAS modeling approach with Petri-net modeling methodology and unified modeling language to visualize and rationalize the design processes of MAS. The major contributions of this research include developing a Petri-net enabled Prometheus MAS modeling methodology and constructing a collaborative agent-based maintenance chain framework for integrated EAM.

Correlations between designability and various structural characteristics of protein lattice models

Using six kinds of lattice types (4×4 ,5×5 , and6×6 square lattices;3×3×3 cubic lattice; and2+3+4+3+2 and4+5+6+5+4 triangular lattices), three different size alphabets (HP ,HNUP , and 20 letters), and two energy functions, the designability of proteinstructures is calculated based on random samplings of structures and common biased sampling (CBS) of proteinsequence space. Then three quantities stability (average energy gap),foldability, and partnum of the structure, which are defined to elucidate the designability, are calculated. The authors find that whatever the type of lattice, alphabet size, and energy function used, there will be an emergence of highly designable (preferred) structure. For all cases considered, the local interactions reduce degeneracy and make the designability higher. The designability is sensitive to the lattice type, alphabet size, energy function, and sampling method of the sequence space. Compared with the random sampling method, both the CBS and the Metropolis Monte Carlo sampling methods make the designability higher. The correlation coefficients between the designability, stability, and foldability are mostly larger than 0.5, which demonstrate that they have strong correlation relationship. But the correlation relationship between the designability and the partnum is not so strong because the partnum is independent of the energy. The results are useful in practical use of the designability principle, such as to predict the proteintertiary structure.

Ovarian steroid hormones: effects on immune responses and Chlamydia trachomatis infections of the female genital tract

Female sex hormones are known to regulate the adaptive and innate immune functions of the female reproductive tract. This review aims to update our current knowledge of the effects of the sex hormones estradiol and progesterone in the female reproductive tract on innate immunity, antigen presentation, specific immune responses, antibody secretion, genital tract infections caused by Chlamydia trachomatis, and vaccine-induced immunity.

Prediction of cis/trans isomerization in proteins using PSI-BLAST profiles and secondary structure information

Background The majority of peptide bonds in proteins are found to occur in the trans conformation. However, for proline residues, a considerable fraction of Prolyl peptide bonds adopt the cis form. Proline cis/trans isomerization is known to play a critical role in protein folding, splicing, cell signaling and transmembrane active transport. Accurate prediction of proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins would have many important applications towards the understanding of protein structure and function. Results In this paper, we propose a new approach to predict the proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins using support vector machine (SVM). The preliminary results indicated that using Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernels could lead to better prediction performance than that of polynomial and linear kernel functions. We used single sequence information of different local window sizes, amino acid compositions of different local sequences, multiple sequence alignment obtained from PSI-BLAST and the secondary structure information predicted by PSIPRED. We explored these different sequence encoding schemes in order to investigate their effects on the prediction performance. The training and testing of this approach was performed on a newly enlarged dataset of 2424 non-homologous proteins determined by X-Ray diffraction method using 5-fold cross-validation. Selecting the window size 11 provided the best performance for determining the proline cis/trans isomerization based on the single amino acid sequence. It was found that using multiple sequence alignments in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles could significantly improve the prediction performance, the prediction accuracy increased from 62.8% with single sequence to 69.8% and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) improved from 0.26 with single local sequence to 0.40. Furthermore, if coupled with the predicted secondary structure information by PSIPRED, our method yielded a prediction accuracy of 71.5% and MCC of 0.43, 9% and 0.17 higher than the accuracy achieved based on the singe sequence information, respectively. Conclusion A new method has been developed to predict the proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins based on support vector machine, which used the single amino acid sequence with different local window sizes, the amino acid compositions of local sequence flanking centered proline residues, the position-specific scoring matrices (PSSMs) extracted by PSI-BLAST and the predicted secondary structures generated by PSIPRED. The successful application of SVM approach in this study reinforced that SVM is a powerful tool in predicting proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins and biological sequence analysis.

The nature of juristic paradigms : exploring the theoretical and conceptual relationship between adversarialism and therapeutic jurisprudence

Problem solving courts appear to achieve outcomes which are not common in mainstream courts. There are increasing calls for the adoption of more “therapeutic” and “problem solving” practices by mainstream judges in civil and criminal courts in a number of jurisdictions, most notably in the United States and Australia. Currently, a judge who sets out to exercise a significant therapeutic function is quite likely to be doing so in a specialist court or jurisdiction, outside the mainstream court system, and, arguably, from outside the adversarial paradigm itself. To some extent, his work is tolerated but marginalized. But do therapeutic and problem solving functions have the potential to define, rather than complement, the role of judicial officers? The basic question addressed in this paper is, therefore, whether the judicial role could evolve to be not just less adversarial, but fundamentally non-adversarial. In other words, could we see--or are we seeing--a paradigm shift not just in the colloquial, casual sense of the word, but in the strong, worldview changing sense meant by Thomas Kuhn?

Airport enclaves : bridging boundary tensions between airports and cities

Current approaches to airport development and land use sit at odds with the tradition of airports as spaces for aviation (Stevens et a/. 2010). While airports remain the primary interface between air transport and society, the functions they include within their boundaries have expanded well beyond the provision of infrastructure for aviation and logistics. Shopping malls, commercial office space, hotels, golf courses and conference facilities arc increasingly normal uses of land within airport boundaries (Kasarda 2008), and enhance the role of airports from transport infrastructure to a new form of economic infrastructure (Freestone 2009). However, the expanding role of airports, and the resulting diversification in airport land uses, has not been without opposition.