Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

The implementation of social and economic policy through the tax regime : a review of Australia's tax expenditures program

Each year the Australian Federal Treasury releases its Tax Expenditures Statement providing details of concessions, benefits, and incentives delivered through the tax regime to Australian taxpayers. The current Tax Expenditures Statement, released on 25 January 2008, lists approximately 300 tax expenditures and reports on the estimated pecuniary value in terms of revenue foregone, estimated to be a total of $50.12 billion for the 2006-07 financial year. Apart from the annual Tax Expenditures Statement, and despite the recurring fiscal impact, there is very little other scrutiny of Australia’s Federal tax expenditures program. This is despite tax expenditures often being seen as an alternative to direct expenditures with similar impact on the Federal budget. The object of tax expenditures is to provide government assistance and meet government objectives, and, as such, tax expenditures are departures from the revenue raising aspect of the tax regime. Within this context, this article examines the fundamental concept of tax expenditures as contrasted with direct expenditures and considers the role they play in the current tax regime.

Modelling the water, energy and economic nexus

The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.

Company taxation and tax spillovers: Separate accounting versus formula apportionment

It is observed in the real world that taxes matter for location decisions and that multinationals shift profits by transfer pricing. The US and Canada use so-called formula apportionment (FA) to tax corporate income, and the EU is debating a switch from separate accounting (SA) to FA. This paper develops a theoretical model that compares basic properties of FA to SA. The focal point of the analysis is how changes in tax rates affect capital formation, input choice, and transfer pricing, as well as on spillovers on tax revenue in other countries. The analysis shows that a move from SA to FA will not eliminate such spillovers and will, in cases identified in the paper, actually aggravate them.

Negotiating social and moral order in internet relay chat

Although internet chat is a significant aspect of many internet users’ lives, the manner in which participants in quasi-synchronous chat situations orient to issues of social and moral order remains to be studied in depth. The research presented here is therefore at the forefront of a continually developing area of study. This work contributes new insights into how members construct and make accountable the social and moral orders of an adult-oriented Internet Relay Chat (IRC) channel by addressing three questions: (1) What conversational resources do participants use in addressing matters of social and moral order? (2) How are these conversational resources deployed within IRC interaction? and (3) What interactional work is locally accomplished through use of these resources? A survey of the literature reveals considerable research in the field of computer-mediated communication, exploring both asynchronous and quasi-synchronous discussion forums. The research discussed represents a range of communication interests including group and collaborative interaction, the linguistic construction of social identity, and the linguistic features of online interaction. It is suggested that the present research differs from previous studies in three ways: (1) it focuses on the interaction itself, rather than the ways in which the medium affects the interaction; (2) it offers turn-by-turn analysis of interaction in situ; and (3) it discusses membership categories only insofar as they are shown to be relevant by participants through their talk. Through consideration of the literature, the present study is firmly situated within the broader computer-mediated communication field. Ethnomethodology, conversation analysis and membership categorization analysis were adopted as appropriate methodological approaches to explore the research focus on interaction in situ, and in particular to investigate the ways in which participants negotiate and co-construct social and moral orders in the course of their interaction. IRC logs collected from one chat room were analysed using a two-pass method, based on a modification of the approaches proposed by Pomerantz and Fehr (1997) and ten Have (1999). From this detailed examination of the data corpus three interaction topics are identified by means of which participants clearly orient to issues of social and moral order: challenges to rule violations, ‘trolling’ for cybersex, and experiences regarding the 9/11 attacks. Instances of these interactional topics are subjected to fine-grained analysis, to demonstrate the ways in which participants draw upon various interactional resources in their negotiation and construction of channel social and moral orders. While these analytical topics stand alone in individual focus, together they illustrate different instances in which participants’ talk serves to negotiate social and moral orders or collaboratively construct new orders. Building on the work of Vallis (2001), Chapter 5 illustrates three ways that rule violation is initiated as a channel discussion topic: (1) through a visible violation in open channel, (2) through an official warning or sanction by a channel operator regarding the violation, and (3) through a complaint or announcement of a rule violation by a non-channel operator participant. Once the topic has been initiated, it is shown to become available as a topic for others, including the perceived violator. The fine-grained analysis of challenges to rule violations ultimately demonstrates that channel participants orient to the rules as a resource in developing categorizations of both the rule violation and violator. These categorizations are contextual in that they are locally based and understood within specific contexts and practices. Thus, it is shown that compliance with rules and an orientation to rule violations as inappropriate within the social and moral orders of the channel serves two purposes: (1) to orient the speaker as a group member, and (2) to reinforce the social and moral orders of the group. Chapter 6 explores a particular type of rule violation, solicitations for ‘cybersex’ known in IRC parlance as ‘trolling’. In responding to trolling violations participants are demonstrated to use affiliative and aggressive humour, in particular irony, sarcasm and insults. These conversational resources perform solidarity building within the group, positioning non-Troll respondents as compliant group members. This solidarity work is shown to have three outcomes: (1) consensus building, (2) collaborative construction of group membership, and (3) the continued construction and negotiation of existing social and moral orders. Chapter 7, the final data analysis chapter, offers insight into how participants, in discussing the events of 9/11 on the actual day, collaboratively constructed new social and moral orders, while orienting to issues of appropriate and reasonable emotional responses. This analysis demonstrates how participants go about ‘doing being ordinary’ (Sacks, 1992b) in formulating their ‘first thoughts’ (Jefferson, 2004). Through sharing their initial impressions of the event, participants perform support work within the interaction, in essence working to normalize both the event and their initial misinterpretation of it. Normalising as a support work mechanism is also shown in relation to participants constructing the ‘quiet’ following the event as unusual. Normalising is accomplished by reference to the indexical ‘it’ and location formulations, which participants use both to negotiate who can claim to experience the ‘unnatural quiet’ and to identify the extent of the quiet. Through their talk participants upgrade the quiet from something legitimately experienced by one person in a particular place to something that could be experienced ‘anywhere’, moving the phenomenon from local to global provenance. With its methodological design and detailed analysis and findings, this research contributes to existing knowledge in four ways. First, it shows how rules are used by participants as a resource in negotiating and constructing social and moral orders. Second, it demonstrates that irony, sarcasm and insults are three devices of humour which can be used to perform solidarity work and reinforce existing social and moral orders. Third, it demonstrates how new social and moral orders are collaboratively constructed in relation to extraordinary events, which serve to frame the event and evoke reasonable responses for participants. And last, the detailed analysis and findings further support the use of conversation analysis and membership categorization as valuable methods for approaching quasi-synchronous computer-mediated communication.

Participation and social order in the playground

This study investigates the everyday practices of young children acting in their social worlds within the context of the school playground. It employs an ethnographic ethnomethodological approach using conversation analysis. In the context of child participation rights advanced by the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) and childhood studies, the study considers children’s social worlds and their participation agendas. The participants of the study were a group of young children in a preparatory year setting in a Queensland school. These children, aged 4 to 6 years, were videorecorded as they participated in their day-to-day activities in the classroom and in the playground. Data collection took place over a period of three months, with a total of 26 hours of video data. Episodes of the video-recordings were shown to small groups of children and to the teacher to stimulate conversations about what they saw on the video. The conversations were audio-recorded. This method acknowledged the child’s standpoint and positioned children as active participants in accounting for their relationships with others. These accounts are discussed as interactionally built comments on past joint experiences and provided a starting place for analysis of the video-recorded interaction. Four data chapters are presented in this thesis. Each data chapter investigates a different topic of interaction. The topics include how children use “telling” as a tactical tool in the management of interactional trouble, how children use their “ideas” as possessables to gain ownership of a game and the interactional matters that follow, how children account for interactional matters and bid for ownership of “whose idea” for the game and finally, how a small group of girls orientated to a particular code of conduct when accounting for their actions in a pretend game of “school”. Four key themes emerged from the analysis. The first theme addresses two arenas of action operating in the social world of children, pretend and real: the “pretend”, as a player in a pretend game, and the “real”, as a classroom member. These two arenas are intertwined. Through inferences to explicit and implicit “codes of conduct”, moral obligations are invoked as children attempt to socially exclude one another, build alliances and enforce their own social positions. The second theme is the notion of shared history. This theme addresses the history that the children reconstructed, and acts as a thread that weaves through their interactions, with implications for present and future relationships. The third theme is around ownership. In a shared context, such as the playground, ownership is a highly contested issue. Children draw on resources such as rules, their ideas as possessables, and codes of behaviour as devices to construct particular social and moral orders around owners of the game. These themes have consequences for children’s participation in a social group. The fourth theme, methodological in nature, shows how the researcher was viewed as an outsider and novice and was used as a resource by the children. This theme is used to inform adult-child relationships. The study was situated within an interest in participation rights for children and perspectives of children as competent beings. Asking children to account for their participation in playground activities situates children as analysers of their own social worlds and offers adults further information for understanding how children themselves construct their social interactions. While reporting on the experiences of one group of children, this study opens up theoretical questions about children’s social orders and these influences on their everyday practices. This thesis uncovers how children both participate in, and shape, their everyday social worlds through talk and interaction. It investigates the consequences that taken-for-granted activities of “playing the game” have for their social participation in the wider culture of the classroom. Consideration of this significance may assist adults to better understand and appreciate the social worlds of young children in the school playground.

The creative sector in New Zealand : mapping and economic role : report to New Zealand Trade and Enterprise

The New Zealand creative sector was responsible for almost 121,000 jobs at the time of the 2006 Census (6.3% of total employment). These are divided between • 35,751 creative specialists – persons employed doing creative work in creative industries • 42,300 support workers - persons providing management and support services in creative industries • 42,792 embedded creative workers – persons engaged in creative work in other types of enterprise The most striking feature of this breakdown is the fact that the largest group of creative workers are employed outside the creative industries, i.e. in other types of businesses. Even within the creative industries, there are fewer people directly engaged in creative work than in providing management and support. Creative sector employees earned incomes of approximately $52,000 per annum at the time of the 2006 Census. This is relatively uniform across all three types of creative worker, and is significantly above the average for all employed persons (of approximately $40,700). Creative employment and incomes were growing strongly over both five year periods between the 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses. However, when we compare creative and general trends, we see two distinct phases in the development of the creative sector: • rapid structural growth over the five years to 2001 (especially led by developments in ICT), with creative employment and incomes increasing rapidly at a time when they were growing modestly across the whole economy; • subsequent consolidation, with growth driven by more by national economic expansion than structural change, and creative employment and incomes moving in parallel with strong economy-wide growth. Other important trends revealed by the data are that • the strongest growth during the decade was in embedded creative workers, especially over the first five years. The weakest growth was in creative specialists, with support workers in creative industries in the middle rank, • by far the strongest growth in creative industries’ employment was in Software & digital content, which trebled in size over the decade Comparing New Zealand with the United Kingdom and Australia, the two southern hemisphere nations have significantly lower proportions of total employment in the creative sector (both in creative industries and embedded employment). New Zealand’s and Australia’s creative shares in 2001 were similar (5.4% each), but in the following five years, our share has expanded (to 5.7%) whereas Australia’s fell slightly (to 5.2%) – in both cases, through changes in creative industries’ employment. The creative industries generated $10.5 billion in total gross output in the March 2006 year. Resulting from this was value added totalling $5.1b, representing 3.3% of New Zealand’s total GDP. Overall, value added in the creative industries represents 49% of industry gross output, which is higher than the average across the whole economy, 45%. This is a reflection of the relatively high labour intensity and high earnings of the creative industries. Industries which have an above-average ratio of value added to gross output are usually labour-intensive, especially when wages and salaries are above average. This is true for Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts, with ratios of 60.4% and 55.2% respectively. However there is significant variation in this ratio between different parts of the creative industries, with some parts (e.g. Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts) generating even higher value added relative to output, and others (e.g. TV & Radio, Publishing and Music & Performing Arts) less, because of high capital intensity and import content. When we take into account the impact of the creative industries’ demand for goods and services from its suppliers and consumption spending from incomes earned, we estimate that there is an addition to economic activity of: • $30.9 billion in gross output, $41.4b in total • $15.1b in value added, $20.3b in total • 158,100 people employed, 234,600 in total The total economic impact of the creative industries is approximately four times their direct output and value added, and three times their direct employment. Their effect on output and value added is roughly in line with the average over all industries, although the effect on employment is significantly lower. This is because of the relatively high labour intensity (and high earnings) of the creative industries, which generate below-average demand from suppliers, but normal levels of demand though expenditure from incomes. Drawing on these numbers and conclusions, we suggest some (slightly speculative) directions for future research. The goal is to better understand the contribution the creative sector makes to productivity growth; in particular, the distinctive contributions from creative firms and embedded creative workers. The ideas for future research can be organised into the several categories: • Understanding the categories of the creative sector– who is doing the business? In other words, examine via more fine grained research (at a firm level perhaps) just what is the creative contribution from the different aspects of the creative sector industries. It may be possible to categorise these in terms of more or less striking innovations. • Investigate the relationship between the characteristics and the performance of the various creative industries/ sectors; • Look more closely at innovation at an industry level e.g. using an index of relative growth of exports, and see if this can be related to intensity of use of creative inputs; • Undertake case studies of the creative sector; • Undertake case studies of the embedded contribution to growth in the firms and industries that employ them, by examining taking several high performing noncreative industries (in the same way as proposed for the creative sector). • Look at the aggregates – drawing on the broad picture of the extent of the numbers of creative workers embedded within the different industries, consider the extent to which these might explain aspects of the industries’ varied performance in terms of exports, growth and so on. • This might be able to extended to examine issues like the type of creative workers that are most effective when embedded, or test the hypothesis that each industry has its own particular requirements for embedded creative workers that overwhelms any generic contributions from say design, or IT.

The applicability of biased estimation in model and model order selection

Biased estimation has the advantage of reducing the mean squared error (MSE) of an estimator. The question of interest is how biased estimation affects model selection. In this paper, we introduce biased estimation to a range of model selection criteria. Specifically, we analyze the performance of the minimum description length (MDL) criterion based on biased and unbiased estimation and compare it against modern model selection criteria such as Kay's conditional model order estimator (CME), the bootstrap and the more recently proposed hook-and-loop resampling based model selection. The advantages and limitations of the considered techniques are discussed. The results indicate that, in some cases, biased estimators can slightly improve the selection of the correct model. We also give an example for which the CME with an unbiased estimator fails, but could regain its power when a biased estimator is used.

Basin analysis and economic geology of the Northern Mount Isa Basin

The Mount Isa Basin is a new concept used to describe the area of Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic rocks south of the Murphy Inlier and inappropriately described presently as the Mount Isa Inlier. The new basin concept presented in this thesis allows for the characterisation of basin-wide structural deformation, correlation of mineralisation with particular lithostratigraphic and seismic stratigraphic packages, and the recognition of areas with petroleum exploration potential. The northern depositional margin of the Mount Isa Basin is the metamorphic, intrusive and volcanic complex here referred to as the Murphy Inlier (not the "Murphy Tectonic Ridge"). The eastern, southern and western boundaries of the basin are obscured by younger basins (Carpentaria, Eromanga and Georgina Basins). The Murphy Inlier rocks comprise the seismic basement to the Mount Isa Basin sequence. Evidence for the continuity of the Mount Isa Basin with the McArthur Basin to the northwest and the Willyama Block (Basin) at Broken Hill to the south is presented. These areas combined with several other areas of similar age are believed to have comprised the Carpentarian Superbasin (new term). The application of seismic exploration within Authority to Prospect (ATP) 423P at the northern margin of the basin was critical to the recognition and definition of the Mount Isa Basin. The Mount Isa Basin is structurally analogous to the Palaeozoic Arkoma Basin of Illinois and Arkansas in southern USA but, as with all basins it contains unique characteristics, a function of its individual development history. The Mount Isa Basin evolved in a manner similar to many well described, Phanerozoic plate tectonic driven basins. A full Wilson Cycle is recognised and a plate tectonic model proposed. The northern Mount Isa Basin is defined as the Proterozoic basin area northwest of the Mount Gordon Fault. Deposition in the northern Mount Isa Basin began with a rift sequence of volcaniclastic sediments followed by a passive margin drift phase comprising mostly carbonate rocks. Following the rift and drift phases, major north-south compression produced east-west thrusting in the south of the basin inverting the older sequences. This compression produced an asymmetric epi- or intra-cratonic clastic dominated peripheral foreland basin provenanced in the south and thinning markedly to a stable platform area (the Murphy Inlier) in the north. The fmal major deformation comprised east-west compression producing north-south aligned faults that are particularly prominent at Mount Isa. Potential field studies of the northern Mount Isa Basin, principally using magnetic data (and to a lesser extent gravity data, satellite images and aerial photographs) exhibit remarkable correlation with the reflection seismic data. The potential field data contributed significantly to the unravelling of the northern Mount Isa Basin architecture and deformation. Structurally, the Mount Isa Basin consists of three distinct regions. From the north to the south they are the Bowthorn Block, the Riversleigh Fold Zone and the Cloncurry Orogen (new names). The Bowthom Block, which is located between the Elizabeth Creek Thrust Zone and the Murphy Inlier, consists of an asymmetric wedge of volcanic, carbonate and clastic rocks. It ranges from over 10 000 m stratigraphic thickness in the south to less than 2000 min the north. The Bowthorn Block is relatively undeformed: however, it contains a series of reverse faults trending east-west that are interpreted from seismic data to be down-to-the-north normal faults that have been reactivated as thrusts. The Riversleigh Fold Zone is a folded and faulted region south of the Bowthorn Block, comprising much of the area formerly referred to as the Lawn Hill Platform. The Cloncurry Orogen consists of the area and sequences equivalent to the former Mount Isa Orogen. The name Cloncurry Orogen clearly distinguishes this area from the wider concept of the Mount Isa Basin. The South Nicholson Group and its probable correlatives, the Pilpah Sandstone and Quamby Conglomerate, comprise a later phase of now largely eroded deposits within the Mount Isa Basin. The name South Nicholson Basin is now outmoded as this terminology only applied to the South Nicholson Group unlike the original broader definition in Brown et al. (1968). Cored slimhole stratigraphic and mineral wells drilled by Amoco, Esso, Elf Aquitaine and Carpentaria Exploration prior to 1986, penetrated much of the stratigraphy and intersected both minor oil and gas shows plus excellent potential source rocks. The raw data were reinterpreted and augmented with seismic stratigraphy and source rock data from resampled mineral and petroleum stratigraphic exploration wells for this study. Since 1986, Comalco Aluminium Limited, as operator of a joint venture with Monument Resources Australia Limited and Bridge Oil Limited, recorded approximately 1000 km of reflection seismic data within the basin and drilled one conventional stratigraphic petroleum well, Beamesbrook-1. This work was the first reflection seismic and first conventional petroleum test of the northern Mount Isa Basin. When incorporated into the newly developed foreland basin and maturity models, a grass roots petroleum exploration play was recognised and this led to the present thesis. The Mount Isa Basin was seen to contain excellent source rocks coupled with potential reservoirs and all of the other essential aspects of a conventional petroleum exploration play. This play, although high risk, was commensurate with the enormous and totally untested petroleum potential of the basin. The basin was assessed for hydrocarbons in 1992 with three conventional exploration wells, Desert Creek-1, Argyle Creek-1 and Egilabria-1. These wells also tested and confrrmed the proposed basin model. No commercially viable oil or gas was encountered although evidence of its former existence was found. In addition to the petroleum exploration, indeed as a consequence of it, the association of the extensive base metal and other mineralisation in the Mount Isa Basin with hydrocarbons could not be overlooked. A comprehensive analysis of the available data suggests a link between the migration and possible generation or destruction of hydrocarbons and metal bearing fluids. Consequently, base metal exploration based on hydrocarbon exploration concepts is probably. the most effective technique in such basins. The metal-hydrocarbon-sedimentary basin-plate tectonic association (analogous to Phanerozoic models) is a compelling outcome of this work on the Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic Mount lsa Basin. Petroleum within the Bowthom Block was apparently destroyed by hot brines that produced many ore deposits elsewhere in the basin.