Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Environmental aspects and challenges of oilseed produced biodiesel in Southeast Asia

Research on alternative fuel for the vehemently growing number of automotivesis intensified due to environmental reasons rather than turmoil in energy price and supply. From the policy and steps to emphasis the use of biofuel by governments all around the world, this can be comprehended that biofuel have placed itself as a number one substitute for fossil fuels. These phenomena made Southeast Asia a prominent exporter of biodiesel. But thrust in biodiesel production from oilseeds of palm and Jatropha curcas in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand is seriously threatening environmental harmony. This paper focuses on this critical issue of biodiesels environmental impacts, policy, standardization of this region as well as on the emission of biodiesel in automotive uses. To draw a bottom line on feasibilities of different feedstock of biodiesel, a critical analysis on oilseed yield rate, land use, engine emissions and oxidation stability is reviewed. Palm oil based biodiesel is clearly ahead in all these aspects of feasibility, except in the case of NOx where it lags from conventional petro diesel.

Effect of depithing on the safety and environmental aspects of bagasse stockpiling

Large scale sugarcane bagasse storage in uncovered stockpiles has the potential to result in adverse impacts on the environment and surrounding communities through hazards associated with nuisance dust, groundwater seepage, spontaneous combustion and generation of contaminated leachates. Managing these hazards will assist in improved health and safety outcomes for factory staff and reduced potential environmental impacts on surrounding communities. Removal of the smaller fibres (pith) from bagasse prior to stockpiling reduced the dust number of bagasse by 50% and modelling suggests peak ground level PM10 dust emissions would reduce by 70%. Depithed bagasse has much lower water holding capacity (~43%) than whole bagasse. This experimental and modelling study investigated the physical properties of depithed and whole bagasse. Dust dispersion modelling was undertaken to determine the likely effects associated with storage of whole and depithed sugarcane bagasse.

Identification of key environmental issues for building materials

Manufacture, construction and use of buildings and building materials make a significant environmental impact internally (inside the building), locally (neighbourhood) and globally. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is being applied for evaluating the environmental impact of building/or building materials. One of the major applications of LCA is to identify key issues of a product system from cradle to grave. Key issues identified in an LCA lead one to the right direction in assessing the environmental aspects of a product system and help to identify the areas for improvement of the environmental performance of a product as well. The purpose of this paper is to suggest two methods for identifying key issues using an integrated tool (LCADesign), which has been developed to provide a method of determining the best alternative for reducing environmental impacts from a building or building materials, and compare both methods in the case study. This paper assists the designers or marketers related to building or building materials in their decision making by giving information on activities or alternatives which are identified as key issues for environmental impacts.

The importance of environmental issues and costs in Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) for highway projects

Sustainability has been increasingly recognised as an integral part of highway infrastructure development. In practice however, the fact that financial return is still a project’s top priority for many, environmental aspects tend to be overlooked or considered as a burden, as they add to project costs. Sustainability and its implications have a far-reaching effect on each project over time. Therefore, with highway infrastructure’s long-term life span and huge capital demand, the consideration of environmental cost/ benefit issues is more crucial in life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA). To date, there is little in existing literature studies on viable estimation methods for environmental costs. This situation presents the potential for focused studies on environmental costs and issues in the context of life-cycle cost analysis. This paper discusses a research project which aims to integrate the environmental cost elements and issues into a conceptual framework for life cycle costing analysis for highway projects. Cost elements and issues concerning the environment were first identified through literature. Through questionnaires, these environmental cost elements will be validated by practitioners before their consolidation into the extension of existing and worked models of life-cycle costing analysis (LCCA). A holistic decision support framework is being developed to assist highway infrastructure stakeholders to evaluate their investment decision. This will generate financial returns while maximising environmental benefits and sustainability outcome.

Particle Swarm algorithm with Fuzzy decision making for a multi-objective economic and environmental optimization of design of a thermal system

Multi-Objective optimization for designing of a benchmark cogeneration system known as CGAM cogeneration system has been performed. In optimization approach, the thermoeconomic and Environmental aspects have been considered, simultaneously. The environmental objective function has been defined and expressed in cost terms. One of the most suitable optimization techniques developed using a particular class of search algorithms known as; Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) algorithm has been used here. This approach has been applied to find the set of Pareto optimal solutions with respect to the aforementioned objective functions. An example of fuzzy decision-making with the aid of Bellman-Zadeh approach has been presented and a final optimal solution has been introduced.

Can environmental history save the world?

As a ‘genre of history’ in Australia environmental history is relatively new, emerging in the 1960s and 70s from encounters between history, geography and the natural sciences in the context of growing environmental concern and activism. Interdisciplinary in orientation, the field also exhibited an unusually high level of engagement with current environmental issues and organisations. In this era of national research priorities and debates about the role and purpose of university-based research, it therefore seemed fair to ask: ‘can environmental history save the world?’ In response, a panel of new and established researchers offer their perspectives on issues of relevance and utility within this diverse and dynamic genre.

Emerging urban futures, land, water, infrastructure

This paper will examine the intersection of design research and problem‐based teaching through the process and outcomes of a four year long ARC funded research project: the Emerging Futures Project. Sustainability is central to the project; in its overall content as well as in the broad aim of determining better outcomes for urban consolidation.