Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

The El Chichon stratospheric cloud : solid particulates and settling rates

Sampling of the El Chichón stratospheric cloud in early May and in late July, 1982, showed that a significant proportion of the cloud consisted of solid particles between 2 μm and 40 μm size. In addition, many particles may have been part of larger aggregates or clusters that ranged in size from < 10 μm to > 50 μm. The majority of individual grains were angular aluminosilicate glass shards with various amounts of smaller, adhering particles. Surface features on individual grains include sulfuric acid droplets and larger (0.5 μm to 1 μm) sulfate gel droplets with various amounts of Na, Mg, Ca and Fe. The sulfate gels probably formed by the interaction of sulfur-rich gases and solid particles within the cloud soon after eruption. Ca-sulfate laths may have formed by condensation within the plume during eruption, or alternatively, at a later stage by the reaction of sulfuric acid aerosols with ash fragments within the stratospheric cloud. A Wilson-Huang formulation for the settling rate of individual particles qualitatively agrees with the observed particle-size distribution for a period at least four months after injection of material into the stratosphere. This result emphasizes the importance of particle shape in controlling the settling rate of volcanic ash from the stratosphere.

Proposing and developing a definition and conceptual framework for health care resilience to cope with disasters [Resiliencia: Propuesta y desarrollo de la definicion y del marco conceptual en relacion a los desastres en el ambito sanitario]

La creación del término resiliencia en salud es un paso importante hacia la construcción de comunidades más resilientes para afrontar mejor los desastres futuros. Hasta la fecha, sin embargo, parece que hay poca literatura sobre cómo el concepto de resiliencia en salud debe ser definido. Este artículo tiene como objetivo construir un enfoque de gestión de desastres de salud integral guiado por el concepto de resiliencia. Se realizaron busquedas en bases de datos electrónicas de salud para recuperar publicaciones críticas que pueden haber contribuido a los fines y objetivos de la investigación. Un total de 61 publicaciones se incluyeron en el análisis final de este documento, que se centraron en aquéllas que proporcionan una descripción completa de las teorías y definiciones de resiliencia ante los desastres y las que proponen una definición y un marco conceptual para la capacidad de resiliencia en salud. La resiliencia es una capacidad inherente de adaptación para hacer frente a la incertidumbre del futuro. Esto implica el uso de múltiples estrategias, un enfoque de riesgos máximos y tratar de lograr un resultado positivo a través de la vinculación y cooperación entre los distintos elementos de la comunidad. Resiliencia en salud puede definirse como la capacidad de las organizaciones de salud para resistir, absorber, y responder al impacto de los desastres, mientras mantiene las funciones esenciales y se recupera a su estado original o se adapta a un nuevo estado. Puede evaluarse por criterios como la robustez, la redundancia, el ingenio y la rapidez e incluye las dimensiones clave de la vulnerabilidad y la seguridad, los recursos y la preparación para casos de desastre, la continuidad de los servicios esenciales de salud, la recuperación y la adaptación. Este nuevo concepto define las capacidades en gestión de desastres de las organizaciones sanitarias, las tareas de gestión, actividades y resultados de desastres juntos en una visión de conjunto integral, y utiliza un enfoque integrado y con un objetivo alcanzable. Se necesita urgentemente investigación futura de su medición

Víctimas de un experimento: Conflicto multicultural en el programa de oportunidades

This article presents a reflection of the application of multiculturality principles into tertiary educational programs at the University of Los Andes, Bogota Colombia. The main focus of this paper is debating the concept of 'positive discrimination' as a challenge taken by educational centres in societies with cultural diversity populations.

Control social y familia en el siglo XIX colombiano : una aproximación a distintas prácticas de regulación estatal

This article explores a number of social control strategies on individuals and families actioned by the newly created state-national project during the first decades of Colombian XIX century. With special attention on the discourse of urbanity, also named 'civility or good manners', this paper analyses literary sources produced in the time for molding citizens behaviors in order to incorporate the society into the new paradigm of Modernity.

Contribución de la fuerza y el dolor en la función del paciente con artrosis trapecio metacarpiana. Estudio transversal

Objetivo Establecer una posible relación entre la fuerza (Jamar), el dolor (EVA) y la capacidad funcional referida por el paciente (DASH) determinando en qué grado influyen unas en otras. Estudio observacional transversal analítico. Participantes Muestra de 72 pacientes que presentaban una artrosis trapecio metacarpiana grado 2-3 de Eaton. Los pacientes fueron reclutados cuando acudían a la Unidad de Cirugía de mano. Método Se realizaron mediciones de fuerza de agarre, pinza, valoración del dolor y funcionalidad, y se establecieron las correlaciones entre cada una de ellas. Resultados El modelo más significativo para la función (R2 =0.83) incluye la variable dolor y la fuerza. Pero es la fuerza punta contra punta la que presenta una mayor correlación con el cuestionario DASH (B-estandarizado: –57). Respecto al dolor, influye en todas las mediciones de fuerza realizadas con el dinamómetro, siendo también la fuerza de la pinza punta contra punta la que presenta una mayor correlación. Conclusiones Los hallazgos corroboran que existe una correlación significativa entre la función referida por el paciente y variables que podemos medir en consulta, como la fuerza del puño y la pinza. Pero también esta correlación es significativa entre las variables función y dolor entre sí, pero es la pinza punta contra punta la que presenta una mayor asociación con el cuestionario DASH. Abstract in English Objective To assess the relationship between muscle strength (Jama), and pain (VAS) levels with hand function (DASH) in patients with trapeziometarcapal osteoarthritis. Cross-sectional study. Participants Sample of 72 patients with osteoarthritis stage 2-3 (Eaton) and trapeziometacarpal osteoarthritis. Patients were recruited when they came to the Hand Surgery Unit. Method Grip strength, pinch, pain and hand function were measured, and correlation and regression coefficients between them were obtained. Results For function, the most significant model (R2 = 0.83) included pain and strength. But it is tip to tip pinch force which has a stronger relationship with DASH (Standardized B: –57) questionnaire. Pain also influenced strength measured with the dynamometer but it was tip to tip pinch force that was the most affected. Conclusions Findings confirm that there is a significant correlation between function referred by the patient and variables that can be measured in the clinic such as grip strength and pinch. The correlation between pain intensity and function was also significant, but tip to tip pinch strength had the greatest impact on the function.

El Aprendizaje Informado

Welcome to Informed Learning. If you have opened this book, it is probably because you are interested in how people learn. It may also be because you are interested in how learners interact with their information environment and would like to help them do so in ways that help them learn better. What should we teach and how, so that our students will use information successfully, creatively and responsibly in their journey as lifelong learners? Informed learning provides a unique perspective on helping students become successful learners in our rapidly evolving information environments. It presents a new framework for informed learning, that will enable teachers, librarians, researchers and teacher-researchers to work together as they continue to respond to the need to help students use information to learn. Do you want to help your students engage with the information practices of their discipline or chosen profession? Are you looking for ideas to invigorate and refresh your curriculum? Are you looking for ways to help your students write better essays or search the internet more successfully? Are you looking for strategies to enhance your research supervision? Are you trying to discover how information literacy and information literacy education can contribute to academic curriculum? Informed Learning can help you. Informed learning is using information, creatively and reflectively, in order to learn. It is learning that draws on the different ways in which we use information in academic, professional and community life; and it is learning that draws on emerging understanding of our varied experiences of using information to learn. Indeed, we cannot learn without using information. It is problemetising the interdependence between information use and learning that is the foundation of this book. Most of the time we take for granted that aspect of learning which we call information use. What might happen to the learning experience if we attend to it? Informed Learning examines research into the experience of using information to learn in academic, workplace and community contexts, that can be used to inform learning and learning design at many levels. It draws on contemporary higher education teaching and learning theory to suggest ways forward for a learning agenda that values the need for engaging with the wider world of information. In doing so, it offers a new and unified framework for implementing curriculum that recognises the importance of successful, creative and reflective information use as a strategy for learning as well as a learning outcome; and proposes a research agenda that will continue to inform learning. Informed Learning reconceptualises information literacy as being about engaging in information practices in order to learn; engaging with the different ways of using information to learn. Based on the author’s work in developing the seven faces of information literacy, it proposes the need for teaching and learning to 1) bring about new ways of experiencing and using information, and 2) engage students with those information practices relevant to their discipline or profession. This book is written for a diverse audience of educators from many disciplines, curriculum designers, researchers, and administrators. While this book both establishes a new approach to learning design and an associated research agenda, it is also intended to be practical. I have sought to ground the ideas in practice through: • using Steve and Jane as academics from different disciplines on a journey; experiencing the implementation of informed learning; • using examples from the literature and personal experience; • using reflective questions towards the end of each chapter. In this book you will find many examples of how people experience information use as they go about learning in different contexts. The research reported here shows that as people go about learning they interact with information in different ways. They may be learning about a content area in a formal context, they may be engaged in informal learning as they go about their everyday work, or they may be learning through doing original research. The emphasis on experience and ways of seeing comes from the work of researchers into student learning such as Ference Marton, Paul Ramsden, Shirley Booth, Michael Prosser, Keith Trigwell and others who have shown that, if we are to help students learn, we must first be aware of how they experience those aspects of the world about which they are learning. Different ways of reading this book The first three chapters of this book establish the broad theoretical framework for informed learning; and the remaining chapters consider the out workings of this in a range of contexts. If you want to browse the general directions of this book, read the narratives at the start of each chapter. If you want to see how the book might influence your practice, read the narratives and the reflective questions at the end of each chapter. If you want to help your students become informed learners in their discipline or profession, focus on chapters one, two, three and five. If you are looking for help with students engaged in information practices such as internet searching or essay writing, focus on chapters one, three and four. If you are interested in informed learning in the community or workplace, focus on chapters one, two, three and six. If you want to help your research students become informed learners, focus on chapters one, two, three, seven and eight. If you are working with colleagues to promote information literacy education and are looking for ideas, read chapter nine. If you are interested in researching informed learning read chapter ten

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.