Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Ureaplasma colonization of amniotic fluid and efficacy of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm lung maturation in sheep

Objective: To assess the efficacy of maternal betamethasone for improving preterm lung function, in the presence of inflammation induced by amniotic fluid ureaplasma colonization. ----- ----- Study design: Ewes bearing single fetuses were randomized to receive an intra-amniotic injection of Ureaplasma parvum (serovar 6; 2×107 colony forming units) or vehicle at 86±2 days of pregnancy (mean±SD: term is 150d), followed by maternal intramuscular betamethasone (0.5mg/kg) or saline, either 2 or 7 days before delivery of lambs at 123±1d. ----- ----- Results: Amniotic fluid IL-8 was elevated by ureaplasmas (p=0.049) but unaffected by betamethasone. Lung inflammation induced by ureaplasmas was not affected by betamethasone. Lung compliance was increased by ureaplasma colonization (p=0.009) and betamethasone (p=0.042), and effects were additive. Lung surfactant was increased by ureaplasma colonization (p<0.001) and betamethasone 7 days (p=0.001), but not 2 days, before delivery. ----- ----- Conclusion: Inflammation improves preterm lung function due to increases in surfactant. Antenatal corticosteroids further augment lung function, through an apparently independent mechanism.

The theory and practice on pre-qualification in bidding procedure

资格预审是招标程序中重要环节.通过对投标人的资质和业绩等审查既能保证不符合 要求的投标人尽可能早地退出无谓竞争的行列,避免了大量人力"物力的损失和浪费, 又能促进建筑市场优胜劣汰,提高企业竞争力.同时鉴于目前资格预审和建筑市场存在 的问题,笔者以为通过强化资格预审可以有效推进建筑市场信用体系建设,促进行业健康发展,并且深入探讨了资格预审体系建立的具体对策和措施.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

Markers of cutaneous human papillomavirus infection in individuals with tumor-free skin, actinic keratoses, and squamous cell carcinoma

Separately, actinic keratosis (AK) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) have been associated with cutaneous human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. To further explore the association between HPV infection and SCC development, we determined markers of cutaneous HPV infection within a single population in persons with precursor lesions (AK), cancerous lesions (SCC), and without. Serum and plucked eyebrow hairs were collected from 57 tumor-free controls, 126 AK, and 64 SCC cases. Presence of HPV L1 and E6 seroreactivity and viral DNA were determined for HPV types 5, 8, 15, 16, 20, 24, and 38. Significant positive associations with increasing severity of the lesions (controls, AK, and SCC, respectively) were observed for overall HPV L1 seropositivity (13%, 26%, and 37%) and for HPV8 (4%, 17%, and 30%). In parallel, the proportion of L1 seropositive individuals against multiple HPV types increased from 14% to 39% and 45%. The overall E6 seroreactivity, however, tended to decline with AK and SCC, especially for HPV8 (21%, 11%, and 2%). HPV DNA positivity was most prevalent in the AK cases (54%) compared with the SCC cases (44%) and the tumor-free controls (40%). Among all participants, there was a positive trend between overall HPV DNA positivity and L1 seropositivity, but not E6 seropositivity. Taken together, our data suggest that cutaneous HPV infections accompanied by detectable HPV DNA in eyebrow hairs and HPV L1 seropositivity, but not E6 seropositivity, are associated with an increased risk of AK and SCC.

Coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model for multi-area ATC with risk control

In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.

Analysis and control of cracking due to shrinkage in cast-in-place reinforced concrete slabs

The numerical analysis method of cracking in cast-in-place reinforced concrete slabs is presented. T he results agree w ell with the actual conditions. T he current state of knowledge and some new research findings on crack-control are introduced such as increasing the quantities of the distribution steel, adopting fibre reinforced concrete etc. Some recommended crack-control procedures used in design construction is presented based on the investigation and study of cracking in a frame structure.

Conceptions of ‘community’ among older adults living in high-density urban areas : an Australian case study

Aim The aim of this study was to explore the social networks of community and its connection to location for older people living in inner city high density (ICHD). Method Using a case study approach employing qualitative (diaries, in-depth interviews) and quantitative (global positioning systems and geographical information systems mapping) methods, this paper explores the everyday interaction and social networks and where they manifest spatially for a group of older ICHD Australians. Results Social networks in two community territories were found to be of particular importance to participants in terms of influencing feelings of well-being, support, social inclusion and cohesion. These two territories include the building where older people reside and the area immediately surrounding the building. Conclusion This study highlights the importance of recognising the spatial aspect to better understand the social networks of community and their effects on well-being and social cohesion for ICHD older people.

Nedd4-2(NEDD4L) controls intracellular Na(+)-mediated activity of voltage-gated sodium channels in primary cortical neurons.

Nedd4-2, a HECT (homologous with E6-associated protein C-terminus)-type ubiquitin protein ligase, has been implicated in regulating several ion channels, including Navs (voltage-gated sodium channels). In Xenopus oocytes Nedd4-2 strongly inhibits the activity of multiple Navs. However, the conditions under which Nedd4-2 mediates native Nav regulation remain uncharacterized. Using Nedd4-2-deficient mice, we demonstrate in the present study that in foetal cortical neurons Nedd4-2 regulates Navs specifically in response to elevated intracellular Na(+), but does not affect steady-state Nav activity. In dorsal root ganglia neurons from the same mice, however, Nedd4-2 does not control Nav activities. The results of the present study provide the first physiological evidence for an essential function of Nedd4-2 in regulating Navs in the central nervous system.

Addressing alcohol related harms within maxillofacial trauma practice

Background A brief intervention, conducted in the acute setting care setting after an alcohol-related injury, has been reported to be highly beneficial in reducing the risk of re-injury and in reducing subsequent level of alcohol consumption. This project aimed to understand Australasian Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons' attitudes, knowledge and skills in terms of alcohol screening and brief intervention within acute settings for patients admitted with facial trauma. Materials and Methods A web-based survey was made available to all members (n=200-250) of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons (ANZAOMS), promoted through a number of email bulletins sent by the Association to all members. Implied consent is assumed for participants who complete the online survey. The survey explored their current level of involvement in treating patients with alcohol-relatd facial trauma, as well as their knowledge of and attitudes towards alcohol screening and brief intervention. The survey also explored their willingness for further training and involvement in implementing a SBI program. Parts of the survey were based on a hypothetical case with facial injury and drinking history which was presented to the participants and the participants were asked to give their response to this scenario. Results A total of 58 surgeons completed the on-line survey. 91% of surgeons surveyed were males and 88% were consultant surgeons. 71% would take alcohol history; 29% would deliver a brief alcohol intervention and 14% would refer the patients to an alcohol treatment service or clinician. 40% agreed to have adequate training in managing patients with alcohol-related injuries, while 17% and 19% felt they had adequate time and resources. 76% of surgeons reported the need for more information on where to refer patients for appropriate alcohol treatment. Conclusion The study findings confirm the challenges and barriers to implementing brief alcohol intervention in current practice. There are service gaps that exist, as well as opportunities for training.

Prognostic value of biochemical liver parameters in neonatal sepsis-associated cholestasis

Aims The aim of the study was to evaluate the significance of total bilirubin, aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) for predicting outcome in sepsis-associated cholestasis. Methods: A retrospective cohort review of the hospital records was performed in 181 neonates admitted to the Neonatal Care Unit. A comparison was performed between subjects with low and high liver values based on cut-off values from ROC analysis. We defined poor prognosis to be when a subject had prolonged cholestasis of more than 3.5 months, developed severe sepsis, septic shock or had a fatal outcome. Results: The majority of the subjects were male (56%), preterm (56%) and had early onset sepsis (73%). The poor prognosis group had lower initial values of GGT compared with the good prognosis group (P = 0.003). Serum GGT (cut-off value of 85.5 U/L) and AST (cut-off value of 51 U/L) showed significant correlation with the outcome following multivariate analysis. The odds ratio (OR) of low GGT and high AST were OR 4.3 (95% CI:1.6 to11.8) and OR 2.9 (95% CI:1.1 to 8), respectively, for poor prognosis. In subjects with normal AST values, those with low GGT value had relative risk of 2.52 (95% CI:1.4 to 3.5) for poorer prognosis compared with those with normal or high GGT. Conclusion: Serum GGT and AST values can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated cholestasis

Current trends in the etiology and diagnosis of HPV-related head and neck cancers

Human papilloma virus (HPV) infection is a major risk factor for a distinct subset of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The current review summarizes the epidemiology of HNSCC and the disease burden, the infectious cycle of HPV, the roles of viral oncoproteins, E6 and E7, and the downstream cellular events that lead to malignant transformation. Current techniques for the clinical diagnosis of HPV-associated HNSCC will also be discussed, that is, the detection of HPV DNA, RNA, and the HPV surrogate marker, p16 in tumor tissues, as well as HPV-specific antibodies in serum. Such methods do not allow for the early detection of HPV-associated HNSCC and most cases are at an advanced stage upon diagnosis. Novel noninvasive approaches using oral fluid, a clinically relevant biological fluid, allow for the detection of HPV and cellular alterations in infected cells, which may aid in the early detection and HPV-typing of HNSCC tumors. Noninvasive diagnostic methods will enable early detection and intervention, leading to a significant reduction in mortality and morbidity associated with HNSCC.

A preliminary investigation into adrenal responsiveness and outcomes in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction

PURPOSE: This study investigated the significance of baseline cortisol levels and adrenal response to corticotropin in shocked patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: A short corticotropin stimulation test was performed in 35 patients with cardiogenic shock after AMI by intravenously injecting of 250 μg of tetracosactrin (Synacthen). Blood samples were obtained at baseline (T0) before and at 30 (T30) and 60 (T60) minutes after the test to determine plasma total cortisol (TC) and free cortisol concentrations. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality and its association with T0 TC and maximum response to corticotropin (maximum difference [Δ max] in cortisol levels between T0 and the highest value between T30 and T60). RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality was 37%, and the median time to death was 4 days (interquartile range, 3-9 days). There was some evidence of an increased mortality in patients with T0 TC concentrations greater than 34 μg/dL (P=.07). Maximum difference by itself was not an independent predictor of death. Patients with a T0 TC 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL appeared to have the most favorable survival (91%) when compared with the other 2 groups: T0 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less or T0 34 μg/dL or higher and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL (75%; P=.8) and T0 greater than 34 μg/dL and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less (60%; P=.02). Corticosteroid therapy was associated with an increased mortality (P=.03). There was a strong correlation between plasma TC and free cortisol (r=0.85). CONCLUSIONS: A high baseline plasma TC was associated with a trend toward increased mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock post-AMI. Patients with lower baseline TC, but with an inducible adrenal response, appeared to have a survival benefit. A prognostic system based on basal TC and Δ max similar to that described in septic shock appears feasible in this cohort. Corticosteroid therapy was associated with adverse outcomes. These findings require further validation in larger studies.

A method for matching patients to advanced prostate cancer clinical trials

Objective: To illustrate a new method for simplifying patient recruitment for advanced prostate cancer clinical trials using natural language processing techniques. Background: The identification of eligible participants for clinical trials is a critical factor to increase patient recruitment rates and an important issue for discovery of new treatment interventions. The current practice of identifying eligible participants is highly constrained due to manual processing of disparate sources of unstructured patient data. Informatics-based approaches can simplify the complex task of evaluating patient’s eligibility for clinical trials. We show that an ontology-based approach can address the challenge of matching patients to suitable clinical trials. Methods: The free-text descriptions of clinical trial criteria as well as patient data were analysed. A set of common inclusion and exclusion criteria was identified through consultations with expert clinical trial coordinators. A research prototype was developed using Unstructured Information Management Architecture (UIMA) that identified SNOMED CT concepts in the patient data and clinical trial description. The SNOMED CT concepts model the standard clinical terminology that can be used to represent and evaluate patient’s inclusion/exclusion criteria for the clinical trial. Results: Our experimental research prototype describes a semi-automated method for filtering patient records using common clinical trial criteria. Our method simplified the patient recruitment process. The discussion with clinical trial coordinators showed that the efficiency in patient recruitment process measured in terms of information processing time could be improved by 25%. Conclusion: An UIMA-based approach can resolve complexities in patient recruitment for advanced prostate cancer clinical trials.