Property cash flow studies : focusing on model consistency and data accuracy

The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.

Evaluation of functional performance in commercial buildings

This report fully summarises a project designed to enhance commercial real estate performance within both operational and investment contexts through the development of a model aimed at supporting improved decision-making. The model is based on a risk adjusted discounted cash flow, providing a valuable toolkit for building managers, owners, and potential investors for evaluating individual building performance in terms of financial, social and environmental criteria over the complete life-cycle of the asset. The ‘triple bottom line’ approach to the evaluation of commercial property has much significance for the administrators of public property portfolios in particular. It also has applications more generally for the wider real estate industry given that the advent of ‘green’ construction requires new methods for evaluating both new and existing building stocks. The research is unique in that it focuses on the accuracy of the input variables required for the model. These key variables were largely determined by market-based research and an extensive literature review, and have been fine-tuned with extensive testing. In essence, the project has considered probability-based risk analysis techniques that required market-based assessment. The projections listed in the partner engineers’ building audit reports of the four case study buildings were fed into the property evaluation model developed by the research team. The results are strongly consistent with previously existing, less robust evaluation techniques. And importantly, this model pioneers an approach for taking full account of the triple bottom line, establishing a benchmark for related research to follow. The project’s industry partners expressed a high degree of satisfaction with the project outcomes at a recent demonstration seminar. The project in its existing form has not been geared towards commercial applications but it is anticipated that QDPW and other industry partners will benefit greatly by using this tool for the performance evaluation of property assets. The project met the objectives of the original proposal as well as all the specified milestones. The project has been completed within budget and on time. This research project has achieved the objective by establishing research foci on the model structure, the key input variable identification, the drivers of the relevant property markets, the determinants of the key variables (Research Engine no.1), the examination of risk measurement, the incorporation of risk simulation exercises (Research Engine no.2), the importance of both environmental and social factors and, finally the impact of the triple bottom line measures on the asset (Research Engine no. 3).

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of valuers and agribusiness managers on farm management and sustainable rural land use

Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method, which can focus on the long term environmental and economic sustainability of the property being valued. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and sustainable rural land use. A particular focus of the research relates to the increased awareness of the problems of rural land degradation in Australia and the subsequent impact such problems have on the productivity of rural land. These problems of sustainable land use have resulted in the need to develop an approach to rural valuation practice that allows the valuer to factor the past management practices on the subject rural property into the actual valuation figure. An analysis of the past farm management and the inclusion of this data into the valuation methodology provides a much more reliable indication of farm sustainable economic value than the existing direct comparison valuation methodology.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of NSW valuers and agribusiness managers

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of Commercial, Industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although number of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, as well as the long term environmental viability of the farm, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method, especially in view of the impact that farm technical, financial and environmental .management can have on rural property values. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers and agribusiness managers in NSW, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property valuation practice.

The use of income valuation methods to value rural property

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of commercial, industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although the majority of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice should have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property income potential.

Valuation methods for resident funded retirement villages in Australia : a practitioner's perspective

Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards. Retirement village developments usually include a mix of independent living units (ILUs) and serviced apartments (SAs) with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. Retirement Village assets differ from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. In Australia, each State and Territory has its own Retirement Village Act and Regulations. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. The market value of the operator’s interest in the Retirement Village is therefore based upon the estimated future income from Deferred Management Fees and Capital Gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of discounted cash flow methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate. Whilst there is dissatisfaction with the financial structuring of the DMF in residency agreements, as long as there are future financial returns receivable by the Village owner/operator, then DCF will continue to be the most appropriate valuation methodology for resident funded retirement villages.

Resident-funded retirement village valuations : complications with the application of the DCF

Retirement village assets are different from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. As ongoing levies are typically offset by ongoing operational expenses the market value of the operator's interest in the retirement village is therefore predominantly based upon the estimated future income from deferred management fees and capital gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of DCF methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate.

A preliminary study into the environmental and economic consequences of a sugar factory depithing operation

Bagasse stockpile operations have the potential to lead to adverse environmental and social impacts. Dust releases can cause occupational health and safety concerns for factory workers and dust emissions impact on the surrounding community. Preliminary modelling showed that bagasse depithing would likely reduce the environmental risks, particularly dust emissions, associated with large scale bagasse stockpiling operations. Dust emission properties were measured and used for dispersion modelling with favourable outcomes. Modelling showed a 70% reduction in peak ground level concentrations of PM10 dust (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm) from operations on depithed bagasse stockpiles compared to similar operations on stockpiles of whole bagasse. However, the costs of a depithing operation at a sugar factory were estimated to be approximately $2.1 million in capital expenditure to process 100,000 t/y of bagasse and operating costs were approximately $200,000 p.a. The total capital cost for a 10,000 t/y operation was approximately $1.6 million. The cost of depithing based on a discounted cash flow analysis was $5.50 per tonne of bagasse for the 100,000 t/y scenario. This may make depithing prohibitively expensive in many situations if installed exclusively as a dust control measure.

Success or failure : the NRAS

Many Australian families are unable to access homeownership. This is because house prices are very high to the severely or seriously unaffordable level. Therefore, many low income families will need to rely on affordable rental housing supply. The Australian governments introduced National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) in July 2008. The scheme aims to increase the supply of affordable rental housing by 50,000 dwellings across Australia by June 2014. It provides financial incentive for investors to purchase new affordable housing that must be rented at a minimum of 20% below the market rent. The scheme has been in place for four years to June 2012. There are debates on the success or failure of the scheme. One argues that the scheme is more successful in Queensland but it failed to meet its aims in NSW. This paper examines NRAS incentive designed to encourage affordable housing supply in Australia and demonstrates reasons for developing properties that are crowded in areas where the land prices are relatively lower in the NSW using a discounted cash flow analysis in a hypothetical case study. The findings suggest that the high land values and the increasing cost of development were the main constraints of implementing the scheme in the NSW and government should not provide a flat rate subsidy which is inadequate to ensure that affordable housing projects in high cost areas.

A preliminary study into the environmental and economic consequences of a sugar factory depithing operation

Bagasse stockpile operations have the potential to lead to adverse environmental and social impacts. Dust releases can cause occupational health and safety concerns for factory workers and dust emissions impact on the surrounding community. Preliminary modelling showed that bagasse depithing would likely reduce the environmental risks, particularly dust emissions, associated with large-scale bagasse stockpiling operations. Dust emission properties were measured and used for dispersion modelling with favourable outcomes. Modelling showed a 70% reduction in peak ground level concentrations of PM10 dust (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) from operations on depithed bagasse stockpiles compared to similar operations on stockpiles of whole bagasse. However, the costs of a depithing operation at a sugar factory were estimated to be approximately $2.1 million in capital expenditure to process 100 000 t/y of bagasse and operating costs were 200 000 p.a. The total capital cost for a 10 000 t/y operation was approximately $1.6 million. The cost of depithing based on a discounted cash flow analysis was $5.50 per tonne of bagasse for the 100 000 t/y scenario. This may make depithing prohibitively expensive in many situations if installed exclusively as a dust control measure.

Accounting : building business skills, 3rd ed.

The new edition of this widely used and respected introductory accounting textbook continues to provide students and academics with a well written and accessible resource, with ample illustrations and applications to business for a first study of accounting. The text effectively maintains the balance between a 'user' and 'preparer' perspective by integrating real financial information and business decisions throughout. Through the use of real company information and financial statements students will quickly appreciate the use and users of accounting information. The textbook clearly outlines to students how a financial statement - such as a balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement - communicates the financing, operating, and investing activities of a business. The text builds a strong conceptual understanding and develops skills in the application of accounting principles and techniques, providing students with a solid foundation for further studies in accounting. The integral role of financial statements for decision making is also emphasised in this text and is reinforced throughout by the Decision Toolkit in each chapter. Students are provided with an extensive set of tools necessary to make business decisions based on financial information.

Safer construction voluntary code of practice : implications for SMEs

The majority of Australian construction firms are small businesses, with 97% of general construction businesses employing less than 20 employees and 85% employing less than five employees (Lin and Mills, 2001; Lingard and Holmes, 2001). The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ definition of a small to medium enterprise was used for the purpose of this study (McLennan, 2000). This included small business employing less than twenty people and medium business employing less than 200 people. Although small to medium enterprises (SME) make up the major share of construction organisations in Australia, there is a paucity of published research in relation to occupational health and safety (OHS) issues for this group. Typically, SME organisations “are frequently undercapitalized and depend on continuous cash flow for their continued business” (Cole, 2003; 12). Research by Lin and Mills (2001) indicates that these factors influence the smaller operators’ ability and motivation to achieve high levels of OHS compared to larger firms which tend to integrate OHS into their management systems. According to Lin and Mills (2001; 137) small firms “do not feel the need to focus on OHS in their management systems, instead they often believe that the control of risk is the responsibility of employees”. This report documents findings from a qualitative research study that examined SME organisations’ views of a newly developed voluntary code of practice (VCOP), and ways in which they might implement the code in their businesses. The research also explored respondents’ awareness of current safety issues in industry in the context of their personal experiences.

Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.

The role of idea novelty and relatedness in nascent ventures

The study of venture idea characteristics and the contextual fit between venture ideas and individuals are key research goals in entrepreneurship (Davidsson, 2004). However, to date there has been limited scholarly attention given to these phenomena. Accordingly, this study aims to help fill the gap by investigating the importance of novelty and relatedness of venture ideas in entrepreneurial firms. On the premise that new venture creation is a process and that research should be focused on the early stages of the venturing process, this study primarily focuses its attention on examining how venture idea novelty and relatedness affect the performance in the venture creation process. Different types and degrees of novelty are considered here. Relatedness is shown to be based on individuals’ prior knowledge and resource endowment. Performance in the venture creation process is evaluated according to four possible outcomes: making progress, getting operational, being terminated and achieving positive cash flow. A theoretical model is developed demonstrating the relationship between these variables along with the investment of time and money. Several hypotheses are developed to be tested. Among them, it is hypothesised that novelty hinders short term performance in the venture creation process. On the other hand knowledge and resource relatedness are hypothesised to promote performance. An experimental study was required in order to understand how different types and degrees of novelty and relatedness of venture ideas affect the attractiveness of venture ideas in the eyes of experienced entrepreneurs. Thus, the empirical work in this thesis was based on two separate studies. In the first one, a conjoint analysis experiment was conducted on 32 experienced entrepreneurs in order to ascertain attitudinal preferences regarding venture idea attractiveness based on novelty, relatedness and potential financial gains. This helped to estimate utility values for different levels of different attributes of venture ideas and their relative importance in the attractiveness. The second study was a longitudinal investigation of how venture idea novelty and relatedness affect the performance in the venture creation process. The data for this study is from the Comprehensive Australian Study for Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) project that has been established in order to explore the new venture creation process in Australia. CAUSEE collects data from a representative sample of over 30,000 households in Australia using random digit dialling (RDD) telephone interviews. From these cases, data was collected at two points in time during a 12 month period from 493 firms, who are currently involved in the start-up process. Hypotheses were tested and inferences were derived through descriptive statistics, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling. Results of study 1 indicate that venture idea characteristics have a role in the attractiveness and entrepreneurs prefer to introduce a moderate degree of novelty across all types of venture ideas concerned. Knowledge relatedness is demonstrated to be a more significant factor in attractiveness than resource relatedness. Results of study 2 show that the novelty hinders nascent venture performance. On the other hand, resource relatedness has a positive impact on performance unlike knowledge relatedness which has none. The results of these studies have important implications for potential entrepreneurs, investors, researchers, consultants etc. by developing a better understanding in the venture creation process and its success factors in terms of both theory and practice.