Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

When and how to treat pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacterial diseases

Nontuberculous mycobacteria are ubiquitous environmental organisms that have been recognised as a cause of pulmonary infection for over 50 years. Traditionally patients have had underlying risk factors for development of disease; however the proportion of apparently immunocompetent patients involved appears to be rising. Not all patients culture-positive for mycobacteria will have progressive disease, making the diagnosis difficult, though criteria to aid in this process are available. The two main forms of disease are cavitary disease (usually involving the upper lobes) and fibronodular bronchiectasis (predominantly middle and lingular lobes). For patients with disease, combination antibiotic therapy for 12-24 months is generally required for successful treatment, and this may be accompanied by drug intolerances and side effects. Published success rates range from 30-82%. As the progression of disease is variable, for some patients, attention to pulmonary hygiene and underlying diseases without immediate antimycobacterial therapy may be more appropriate. Surgery can be a useful adjunct, though is associated with risks. Randomised controlled trials in well described patients would provide stronger evidence-based data to guide therapy of NTM lung diseases, and thus are much needed.

The phenomenology of utopia : reimagining the political

This thesis argues that the end of Soviet Marxism and a bipolar global political imaginary at the dissolution of the short Twentieth Century poses an obstacle for anti-systemic political action. Such a blockage of alternate political imaginaries can be discerned by reading the work of Francis Fukuyama and "Endism" as performative invocations of the closure of political alternatives, and thus as an ideological proclamation which enables and constrains forms of social action. It is contended that the search through dialectical thought for a competing universal to posit against "liberal democracy" is a fruitless one, because it reinscribes the terms of teleological theories of history which work to effect closure. Rather, constructing a phenomenological analytic of the political conjuncture, the thesis suggests that the figure of messianism without a Messiah is central to a deconstructive reframing of the possibilities of political action - a reframing attentive to the rhetorical tone of texts. The project of recovering the political is viewed through a phenomenological lens. An agonistic political distinction must be made so as to memorialise the remainders and ghosts of progress, and thus to gesture towards an indeconstructible justice which would serve as a horizon for the articulation of an empty universal. This project is furthered by a return to a certain phenomenology inspired by Cornelius Castoriadis, Claude Lefort, Maurice Merleau-Ponty and Ernesto Laclau. The thesis provides a reading of Jacques Derrida and Walter Benjamin as thinkers of a minor universalism, a non-prescriptive utopia, and places their work in the context of new understandings of religion and the political as quasi-transcendentals which can be utilised to think through the aporias of political time in order to grasp shards of meaning. Derrida and Chantal Mouffe's deconstructive critique and supplement to Carl Schmitt's concept of the political is read as suggestive of a reframing of political thought which would leave the political question open and thus enable the articulation of social imaginary significations able to inscribe meaning in the field of political action. Thus, the thesis gestures towards a form of thought which enables rather than constrains action under the sign of justice.

Effect of selected feed meals and starches on diet digestibility in the mud crab, Scylla serrata

The present study examined the capacity of the mud crab, Scylla serrata to digest experimental diets that contained different animal and plant-based feed meals or different levels or types of starch. The apparent dry matter digestibility (ADMD) coefficients for all feed meals tested in the first part of this study, except meat meal, were similar (78–88%). Crude protein digestibility (ACPD) coefficients for all feed meals were relatively high, with values ranging from 86% to 96%. Cotton seed meal, poultry meal, canola meal, fishmeal, soybean meal and lupin meal had similar gross energy digestibility (AGED) values (P>0.05) ranging from 84% to 89%. In the second part of this study, the impact of selected starches on the digestibility of fishmeal-based formulated diets was assessed. The apparent starch digestibility (ASD) of wheat starch decreased significantly as the inclusion level was increased from 15% to 60%, however, there was no significant effect on ACPD values. At a 30% inclusion level, the ASD of diets containing different starches decreased in the order corn>wheat>potato=rice. Moreover, ACPD values were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the diets containing corn or rice starch than in those containing wheat or potato starches.

Refiguring the net generation : beyond users

In place of, or alongside paradigms such as "the net generation", we suggest that the full implications of the Internet might be productively analysed using a broader framework, that of social imaginaries. First used by Cornelius Castoriadis and more recently by Charles Taylor, the social imaginary, as applied here, is the loosely co-ordinated body of significations that enable our social acts and practices by making sense of them.

Commissioning of a Geant4 based treatment plan simulation tool : linac model and dicom-rt interface

A Geant4 based simulation tool has been developed to perform Monte Carlo modelling of a 6 MV VarianTM iX clinac. The computer aided design interface of Geant4 was used to accurately model the LINAC components, including the Millenium multi-leaf collimators (MLCs). The simulation tool was verified via simulation of standard commissioning dosimetry data acquired with an ionisation chamber in a water phantom. Verification of the MLC model was achieved by simulation of leaf leakage measurements performed using GafchromicTM film in a solid water phantom. An absolute dose calibration capability was added by including a virtual monitor chamber into the simulation. Furthermore, a DICOM-RT interface was integrated with the application to allow the simulation of treatment plans in radiotherapy. The ability of the simulation tool to accurately model leaf movements and doses at each control point was verified by simulation of a widely used intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA) technique, the chair test.

Osteopontin is a downstream effector of the PI3-kinase pathway in melanomas that is inversely correlated with functional PTEN

The tumor suppressor PTEN antagonizes phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K), which contributes to tumorigenesis in many cancer types. While PTEN mutations occur in some melanomas, their precise mechanistic consequences have yet to be elucidated. We sought to identify novel downstream effectors of PI3K using a combination of genomic and functional tests. Microarray analysis of 53 melanoma cell lines identified 610 genes differentially expressed (P<0.05) between wild-type lines and those with PTEN aberrations. Many of these genes are known to be involved in the PI3K pathway and other signaling pathways influenced by PTEN. Validation of differential gene expression by qRT-PCR was performed in the original 53 cell lines and an independent set of 18 melanoma lines with known PTEN status. Osteopontin (OPN), a secreted glycophosphoprotein that contributes to tumor progression, was more abundant at both the mRNA and protein level in PTEN mutants. The inverse correlation between OPN and PTEN expression was validated (P<0.02) by immunohistochemistry using melanoma tissue microarrays. Finally, treatment of cell lines with the PI3K inhibitor LY294002 caused a reduction in expression of OPN. These data indicate that OPN acts downstream of PI3K in melanoma and provides insight into how PTEN loss contributes to melanoma development.

Fast tessellated solid navigation in GEANT4

Navigation through tessellated solids in GEANT4 can degrade computational performance, especially if the tessellated solid is large and is comprised of many facets. Redefining a tessellated solid as a mesh of tetrahedra is common in other computational techniques such as finite element analysis as computations need only consider local tetrahedrons rather than the tessellated solid as a whole. Here within we describe a technique that allows for automatic tetrahedral meshing of tessellated solids in GEANT4 and the subsequent loading of these meshes as assembly volumes; loading nested tessellated solids and tetrahedral meshes is also examined. As the technique makes the geometry suitable for automatic optimisation using smartvoxels, navigation through a simple tessellated volume has been found to be more than two orders of magnitude faster than that through the equivalent tessellated solid. Speed increases of more than two orders of magnitude were also observed for a more complex tessellated solid with voids and concavities. The technique was benchmarked for geometry load time, simulation run time and memory usage. Source code enabling the described functionality in GEANT4 has been made freely available on the Internet.

A CAD interface for GEANT4

Often CAD models already exist for parts of a geometry being simulated using GEANT4. Direct import of these CAD models into GEANT4 however,may not be possible and complex components may be diffcult to define via other means. Solutions that allow for users to work around the limited support in the GEANT4 toolkit for loading predefined CAD geometries have been presented by others, however these solutions require intermediate file format conversion using commercial software. Here within we describe a technique that allows for CAD models to be directly loaded as geometry without the need for commercial software and intermediate file format conversion. Robustness of the interface was tested using a set of CAD models of various complexity; for the models used in testing, no import errors were reported and all geometry was found to be navigable by GEANT4. Funding source: Cancer Australia (Department of Health and Ageing) Research Grant 614217

Respiratory health effects of diesel particulate matter

Particulate matter (PM) emissions involve a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles suspended in a gas, where it is noted that PM emissions from diesel engines are a major contributor to the ambient air pollution problem. Whilst epidemiological studies have shown a link between increased ambient PM emissions and respiratory morbidity and mortality, studies of this design are not able to identify the PM constituents responsible for driving adverse respiratory health effects. This review explores in detail the physico-chemical properties of diesel particulate matter (DPM), and identifies the constituents of this pollution source that are responsible for the development of respiratory disease. In particular, this review shows that the DPM surface area and adsorbed organic compounds play a significant role in manifesting chemical and cellular processes that if sustained can lead to the development of adverse respiratory health effects. The mechanisms of injury involved included: inflammation, innate and acquired immunity, and oxidative stress. Understanding the mechanisms of lung injury from DPM will enhance efforts to protect at-risk individuals from the harmful respiratory effects of air pollutants.