Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

A novel, automated nutrition screening system as a predictor of nutritional risk in an oncology day treatment unit (ODTU)

Purpose Paper-based nutrition screening tools can be challenging to implement in the ambulatory oncology setting. The aim of this study was to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) and a novel, automated nutrition screening system compared to a ‘gold standard’ full nutrition assessment using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Methods An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient oncology day treatment unit (ODTU) within an Australian tertiary health service. Eligibility criteria were as follows: ≥18 years, receiving outpatient anticancer treatment and English literate. Patients self-administered the MST. A dietitian assessed nutritional status using the PGSGA, blinded to the MST score. Automated screening system data were extracted from an electronic oncology prescribing system. This system used weight loss over 3 to 6 weeks prior to the most recent weight record or age-categorised body mass index (BMI) to identify nutritional risk. Sensitivity and specificity against PG-SGA (malnutrition) were calculated using contingency tables and receiver operating curves. Results There were a total of 300 oncology outpatients (51.7 % male, 58.6±13.3 years). The area under the curve (AUC) for weight loss alone was 0.69 with a cut-off value of ≥1 % weight loss yielding 63 % sensitivity and 76.7 % specificity. MST (score ≥2) resulted in 70.6 % sensitivity and 69.5 % specificity, AUC 0.77. Conclusions Both the MST and the automated method fell short of the accepted professional standard for sensitivity (~≥80 %) derived from the PG-SGA. Further investigation into other automated nutrition screening options and the most appropriate parameters available electronically is warranted to support targeted service provision.

Association study of genes related to bone formation and resorption and the extent of radiographic change in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To identify genetic associations with severity of radiographic damage in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Method: We studied 1537 AS cases of European descent; all fulfilled the modified New York Criteria. Radiographic severity was assessed from digitised lateral radiographs of the cervical and lumbar spine using the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS). A two-phase genotyping design was used. In phase 1, 498 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 688 cases; these were selected to capture >90% of the common haplotypic variation in the exons, exon-intron boundaries, and 5 kb flanking DNA in the 5' and 3' UTR of 74 genes involved in anabolic or catabolic bone pathways. In phase 2, 15 SNPs exhibiting p<0.05 were genotyped in a further cohort of 830 AS cases; results were analysed both separately and in combination with the discovery phase data. Association was tested by contingency tables after separating the samples into 'mild' and 'severe' groups, defined as the bottom and top 40% by mSASSS, adjusted for gender and disease duration. Results: Experiment-wise association was observed with the SNP rs8092336 (combined OR 0.32, p=1.2×10-5), which lies within RANK (receptor activator of NF?B), a gene involved in osteoclastogenesis, and in the interaction between T cells and dendritic cells. Association was also found with the SNP rs1236913 in PTGS1 (prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 1, cyclooxygenase 1), giving an OR of 0.53 (p=2.6×10-3). There was no observed association between radiographic severity and HLA-B*27. Conclusions: These findings support roles for bone resorption and prostaglandins pathways in the osteoproliferative changes in AS.

Association between the interleukin 23 receptor and ankylosing spondylitis is confirmed by a new UK case-control study and meta-analysis of published series

Objectives. It has been shown previously that IL-23R variants are associated with AS. We conducted an extended analysis in the UK population and a meta-analysis with the previously published studies, in order to refine these IL-23R associations with AS. Methods. The UK case-control study included 730 new cases and 1331 healthy controls. In the extended study, the 730 cases were combined with 1088 published cases. Allelic associations were analysed using contingency tables. In the meta-analysis, 3482 cases and 3150 controls from four different published studies and the new UK cases were combined. DerSimonian-Laird test was used to calculate random effects pooled odds ratios (ORs). Results. In the UK case-control study with new cases, four of the eight SNPs showed significant associations, whereas in the extended UK study, seven of the eight IL-23R SNPs showed significant associations (P < 0.05) with AS, maximal with rs11209032 (P < 10-5, OR 1.3), when cases with IBD and/or psoriasis were excluded. The meta-analysis showed significant associations with all eight SNPs; the strongest associations were again seen not only with rs11209032 (P = 4.06 × 10-9, OR ∼1.2) but also with rs11209026 (P < 10-10, OR ∼0.6). Conclusions. IL-23R polymorphisms are clearly associated with AS, but the primary causal association(s) is(are) still not established. These polymorphisms could contribute either increased or decreased susceptibility to AS; functional studies will be required for their full evaluation. Additionally, observed stronger associations with SNPs rs11209026 and rs11465804 upon exclusion of IBD and/or psoriasis cases may represent an independent association with AS. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved.

Non-inherited maternal HLA alleles are associated with rheumatoid arthritis

Background. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is strongly associated with a series of HLA-DRB1 alleles that encode a conserved sequence of amino acids (70Q/R K/R R A A74) in the DRβ1 chain, known as the shared epitope (SE). However 30% of patients are negative for DRB1*04 and 15% are SE-negative. Exposure to these alleles as non-inherited maternal antigens (NIMA) might explain this discrepancy. We undertook a family study to investigate the role of NIMA in RA. Methods. One hundred families, including the RA proband and both parents, were recruited. HLA-DRB1 genotyping was performed using an allele-specific polymerase chain reaction by standard methods. The frequencies of NIMA and non-inherited paternal antigens (NIPA) were compared using contingency tables and a two-tailed P test. We then reviewed four previously published studies of NIMA in RA and conducted an analysis of the combined data Results. We identified 36 families in which the proband was DRB1*04-negative and 13 in which the proband lacked the SE. There was an excess of DRB1*04 and SE NIMA (P=0.05) compared with NIPA. Combined analysis with previous studies showed that 53/231 mothers (23%) versus 25/205 fathers (12%) had a non-inherited DRB1*04 (P=0.003) and 30/99 mothers versus 18/101 fathers had a non-inherited SE allele (P=0.03). Conclusion. A role for HLA NIMA in RA is suggested by these results.

Information sharing with key suppliers : a contingency approach

This paper focuses on information sharing with key suppliers and seeks to explore the factors that might influence its extent and depth. We also investigate how information sharing affects a company’s performance with regards to resource usage, output, and flexibility. Drawing from transaction cost- and contingency theories, several factors, namely environmental uncertainty, demand uncertainty, dependency and, the product life cycle stage are proposed to explain the level of information shared with key suppliers. We develop a model where information sharing mediates the (contingent) factors and company performance. A mail survey was used to collect data from Finnish and Swedish companies. Partial Least Squares analysis was separately performed for each country (n=119, n=102). There was consistent evidence that environmental uncertainty, demand uncertainty and supplier/buyer dependency had explanatory power, whereas no significance was found for the product life cycle stage. The results also confirm previous studies by providing support for a positive relationship between information sharing and performance, where output performance was found to be the most strongly related

From tiers to tables – enhancing student experience through collaborative learning spaces

BACKGROUND Collaborative and active learning have been clearly identified as ways students can engage in learning with each other and the academic staff. Traditional tier based lecture theatres and the didactic style they engender are not popular with students today as evidenced by the low attendance rates for lectures. Many universities are installing spaces designed with tables for group interaction with evolutions on spaces such as the TEAL (Technology Enabled Active Learning) (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, n.d.) and SCALE-UP (Student-Centred Activities for Large-Enrolment Undergraduate Programs) (North Carolina State University, n.d.) models. Technology advances in large screen computers and applications have also aided the move to these collaborative spaces. How well have universities structured learning using these spaces and how have students engaged with the content, technology, space and each other? This paper investigates the application of collaborative learning in such spaces for a cohort of 800+ first year engineers in the context of learning about and developing professional skills representative of engineering practice. PURPOSE To determine whether moving from tiers to tables enhances the student experience. Does utilising technology rich, activity based, collaborative learning spaces lead to positive experiences and active engagement of first year undergraduate engineering students? In developing learning methodology and approach in new learning spaces, what needs to change from a more traditional lecture and tutorial configuration? DESIGN/METHOD A post delivery review and analysis of outcomes was undertaken to determine how well students and tutors engaged with learning in new collaborative learning spaces. Data was gathered via focus group and survey of tutors, students survey and attendance observations. The authors considered the unit delivery approach along with observed and surveyed outcomes then conducted further review to produce the reported results. RESULTS Results indicate high participation in the collaborative sessions while the accompanying lectures were poorly attended. Students reported a high degree of satisfaction with the learning experience; however more investigation is required to determine the degree of improvement in retained learning outcomes. Survey feedback from tutors found that students engaged well in the activities during tutorials and there was an observed improvement in the quality of professional practice modelled by students during sessions. Student feedback confirmed the positive experiences in these collaborative learning spaces with 30% improvement in satisfaction ratings from previous years. CONCLUSIONS It is concluded that the right mix of space, technology and appropriate activities does engage students, improve participation and create a rich experience to facilitate potential for improved learning outcomes. The new Collaborative Teaching Spaces, together with integrated technology and tailored activities, has transformed the delivery of this unit and improved student satisfaction in tutorials significantly.

Revisiting Polya's summation techniques using a spreadsheet : from addition tables to Bernoulli polynomials

Recurrence relations in mathematics form a very powerful and compact way of looking at a wide range of relationships. Traditionally, the concept of recurrence has often been a difficult one for the secondary teacher to convey to students. Closely related to the powerful proof technique of mathematical induction, recurrences are able to capture many relationships in formulas much simpler than so-called direct or closed formulas. In computer science, recursive coding often has a similar compactness property, and, perhaps not surprisingly, suffers from similar problems in the classroom as recurrences: the students often find both the basic concepts and practicalities elusive. Using models designed to illuminate the relevant principles for the students, we offer a range of examples which use the modern spreadsheet environment to powerfully illustrate the great expressive and computational power of recurrences.

Probabilistic power system contingency analysis considering wind

This thesis was a step forward in developing probabilistic assessment of power system response to faults subject to intermittent generation by renewable energy. It has investigated the wind power fluctuation effect on power system stability, and the developed fast estimation process has demonstrated the feasibility for real-time implementation. A better balance between power network security and efficiency can be achieved based on this research outcome.

A lucky break : contingency in the storied worlds of prickly pear

In July 1926, the science behind biological control transitioned from an experimental method to a trusted policy tool in invasive species management. In local storytelling, historical writing and scientific analysis, the ‘lucky’ discovery of the South American Cactoblastis cactorum moth was a watershed moment for scientists concerned with prickly pear, Opuntia and Nopalea spp. Within 10 years, Queensland declared itself pest free. Overnight success is the climax in this tale's narrative arc. Articulating this introduction as a ‘lucky break’ worked to stabilize the narrative of human control in the agricultural environments of post-colonial Queensland, and, in doing so, consolidated biological control as critical management technique. I argue that ‘luck’ elides the assemblage of elements and actors necessary to enable this change, allowing settlers to distance themselves from the responsibility for disruptions associated with nineteenth-century plant transfers. To challenge the rhetorical function of luck, three episodes of contingency are discussed: (1) transnational mobility of things and knowledge, (2) the unpredictable adaptation of insect diet, and; (3) human vectors in industrialized insect–plant complexes. There are important distinguishing differences between luck and contingency, which I frame as a critical analytical tool for understanding the political role of non-humans, in the storied worlds of science in prickly pear land.

Scaffolding understanding of tables and graphs

The literacy demands of tables and graphs are different from those of prose texts such as narrative. This paper draws from part of a qualitative case study which sought to investigate strategies that scaffold and enhance the teaching and learning of varied representations in text. As indicated in the paper, the method focused on the teaching and learning of tables and graphs with use of Freebody and Luke's (1990) four resources model from literacy education.

Efficient probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure considering wind perturbation

The integration of stochastic wind power has accentuated a challenge for power system stability assessment. Since the power system is a time-variant system under wind generation fluctuations, pure time-domain simulations are difficult to provide real-time stability assessment. As a result, the worst-case scenario is simulated to give a very conservative assessment of system transient stability. In this study, a probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure method is proposed to provide a less conservative contingency analysis which covers 5-min wind fluctuations and a successive fault. This probabilistic approach would estimate the transfer limit of a critical line for a given fault with stochastic wind generation and active control devices in a multi-machine system. This approach achieves a lower computation cost and improved accuracy using a new stability measure and polynomial interpolation, and is feasible for online contingency analysis.