Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Development of a Rep-inducible, BBTV-based expression system in banana

Banana bunchy top is regarded as the most important viral disease of banana, causing significant yield losses worldwide. The disease is caused by Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV), which is a circular ssDNA virus belonging to the genus Babuvirus in the family Nanoviridae. There are currently few effective control strategies for this and other ssDNA viruses. “In Plant Activation” (InPAct) is a novel technology being developed at QUT for ssDNA virus-activated suicide gene expression. The technology exploits the rolling circle replication mechanism of ssDNA viruses and is based on a unique “split” gene design such that suicide gene expression is only activated in the presence of the viral Rep. This PhD project aimed to develop a BBTV-based InPAct system as a suicide gene strategy to control BBTV. The BBTV-based InPAct vector design requires a BBTV intergenic region (IR) to be embedded within an intron in the gene expression cassette. To ensure that the BBTV IR would not interfere with intron splicing, a TEST vector was initially generated that contained the entire BBTV IR embedded within an intron in a β-glucuronidase (GUS) expression vector. Transient GUS assays in banana embryogenic cell suspensions indicated that cryptic intron splice sites were present within the IR. Transcript analysis revealed two cryptic intron splice sites in the Domain III sequence of the CR-M within the IR. Removal of the CR-M from the TEST vector resulted in an enhancement of GUS expression suggesting that the cryptic intron splice sites had been removed. An InPAct GUS vector was subsequently generated that contained the modified BBTV IR, with the CR-M (minus Domain III) repositioned within the InPAct cassette. Using transient histochemical and fluorometric GUS assays in banana embryogenic cells, the InPAct GUS vector was shown to be activated in the presence of the BBTV Rep. However, the presence of both BBTV Rep and Clink was shown to have a deleterious effect on GUS expression suggesting that these proteins were cytotoxic at the levels expressed. Analysis of replication of the InPAct vectors by Southern hybridisation revealed low levels of InPAct cassette-based episomal DNA released from the vector through the nicking/ligation activity of BBTV Rep. However, Rep-mediated episomal replicons, indicative of rolling circle replication of the released circularised cassettes, were not observed. The inability of the InPAct cassette to be replicated was further investigated. To examine whether the absence of Domain III of the CR-M was responsible, a suite of modified BBTV-based InPAct GUS vectors was constructed that contained the CR-M with the inclusion of Domain III, the CR-M with the inclusion of Domain III and additional upstream IR sequence, or no CR-M. Analysis of replication by Southern hybridisation revealed that neither the presence of Domain III, nor the entire CR-M, had an effect on replication levels. Since the InPAct cassette was significantly larger than the native BBTV genomic components (approximately 1 kb), the effect of InPAct cassette size on replication was also investigated. A suite of size variant BBTV-based vectors was constructed that increased the size of a replication competent cassette to 1.1 kbp through to 2.1 kbp.. Analysis of replication by Southern hybridisation revealed that an increase in vector size above approximately 1.5 - 1.7 kbp resulted in a decrease in replication. Following the demonstration of Rep-mediated release, circularisation and expression from the InPAct GUS vector, an InPAct vector was generated in which the uidA reporter gene was replaced with the ribonuclease-encoding suicide gene, barnase. Initially, a TEST vector was generated to assess the cytotoxicity of Barnase on banana cells. Although transient assays revealed a Barnase-induced cytotoxic effect in banana cells, the expression levels were sub-optimal. An InPAct BARNASE vector was generated and tested for BBTV Rep-activated Barnase expression using transient assays in banana embryogenic cells. High levels of background expression from the InPAct BARNASE vector made it difficult to accurately assess Rep-activated Barnase expression. Analysis of replication by Southern hybridisation revealed low levels of InPAct cassette-based episomal DNA released from the vector but no Rep-mediated episomal replicons indicative of rolling circle replication of the released circularised cassettes were again observed. Despite the inability of the InPAct vectors to replicate to enable high level gene expression, the InPAct BARNASE vector was assessed in planta for BBTV Rep-mediated activation of Barnase expression. Eleven lines of transgenic InPAct BARNASE banana plants were generated by Agrobacterium-mediated transformation and were challenged with viruliferous Pentalonia nigronervosa. At least one clonal plant in each line developed bunchy top symptoms and infection was confirmed by PCR. No localised lesions were observed on any plants, nor was there any localised GUS expression in the one InPAct GUS line challenged with viruliferous aphids. The results presented in this thesis are the first study towards the development of a BBTV-based InPAct system as a Rep-activatable suicide gene expression system to control BBTV. Although further optimisation of the vectors is necessary, the preliminary results suggest that this approach has the potential to be an effective control strategy for BBTV. The use of iterons within the InPAct vectors that are recognised by Reps from different ssDNA plant viruses may provide a broad-spectrum resistance strategy against multiple ssDNA plant viruses. Further, this technology holds great promise as a platform technology for the molecular farming of high-value proteins in vitro or in vivo through expression of the ssDNA virus Rep protein.

A brief motivational intervention for substance misuse in recent-onset psychosis

Substance misuse is common in early psychosis, and impacts negatively on outcomes. Little is known about effective interventions for this population. We report a pilot study of brief intervention for substance misuse in early psychosis (Start Over and Survive: SOS), comparing it with Standard Care (SC). Twenty-five in-patients aged 18-35 years with early psychosis and current misuse of non-opioid drugs were allocated randomly to conditions. Substance use and related problems were assessed at baseline, 6 weeks and 3, 6 and 12 months. Final assessments were blind to condition. All 13 SOS participants who proceeded to motivational interviewing reported less substance use at 6 months, compared with 58% (7/12) in SC alone. Effects were well maintained to 12 months. However, more SOS participants lived with a relative or partner, and this also was associated with better outcomes. Engagement remained challenging: 39% (16/41) declined participation and 38% (5/13) in SOS only received rapport building. Further research will increase sample size, and address both engagement and potential confounds.

Start Over and Survive : A Brief Intervention For Substance Abuse in Early Psychosis

Over the last decade, brief intervention for alcohol problems has become a well-validated and accepted treatment, with bried interventions frequently showing equivalence in terms of outcome to more extended treatments (Bien et al, 1993). A recent review of this studies found that heavy drinkers who received interventions of less than 1 h were almost twice as likely to moderate their drinking over the following 6-12 months as did those not receiving intervention (Wilk etal, 1997).Some studies have used motivational interviewing (MI) strategies (Monti et al, 1999); others have simply given information ajnd advice to reduce drinking (Fleming et al, 1997). Leaflets or information on strategies to assist in the attempt or follow-up sessions are sometimes provided (Fleming et al, 1997). In general practice research, provision of one or more follow-up sessions increases the reliability of intake reductions across studies (Poikolainen, 1999).

The relationship between basic need satisfaction and emotional eating in obesity

Emotional eating has been identified as a factor that promotes the development and maintenance of obesity and hinders its treatment. This study investigated the relationship between unsatisfied basic needs and emotional eating, including the mediating factors of self-esteem and coping strategies. The results from a survey of 136 obese individuals indicated support for a significant relationship between basic need satisfaction and emotional eating, with a mediating effect of negative coping strategies. These findings extend previous research and provide guidance on how to help individuals who engage in emotional eating by focusing on developing more adaptive coping strategies.

The impact of outcomes-driven curriculum reform on teacher perspectives of professional practice

This thesis is the result of an investigation of a Queensland example of curriculum reform based on outcomes, a type of reform common to many parts of the world during the last decade. The purpose of the investigation was to determine the impact of outcomes on teacher perspectives of professional practice. The focus was chosen to permit investigation not only of changes in behaviour resulting from the reform but also of teachers' attitudes and beliefs developed during implementation. The study is based on qualitative methodology, chosen because of its suitability for the investigation of attitudes and perspectives. The study exploits the researcher's opportunities for prolonged, direct contact with groups of teachers through the selection of an over-arching ethnography approach, an approach designed to capture the holistic nature of the reform and to contextualise the data within a broad perspective. The selection of grounded theory as a basis for data analysis reflects the open nature of this inquiry and demonstrates the study's constructivist assumptions about the production of knowledge. The study also constitutes a multi-site case study by virtue of the choice of three individual school sites as objects to be studied and to form the basis of the report. Three primary school sites administered by Brisbane Catholic Education were chosen as the focus of data collection. Data were collected from three school sites as teachers engaged in the first year of implementation of Student Performance Standards, the Queensland version of English outcomes based on the current English syllabus. Teachers' experience of outcomes-driven curriculum reform was studied by means of group interviews conducted at individual school sites over a period of fourteen months, researcher observations and the collection of artefacts such as report cards. Analysis of data followed grounded theory guidelines based on a system of coding. Though classification systems were not generated prior to data analysis, the labelling of categories called on standard, non-idiosyncratic terminology and analytic frames and concepts from existing literature wherever practicable in order to permit possible comparisons with other related research. Data from school sites were examined individually and then combined to determine teacher understandings of the reform, changes that have been made to practice and teacher responses to these changes in terms of their perspectives of professionalism. Teachers in the study understood the reform as primarily an accountability mechanism. Though teachers demonstrated some acceptance of the intentions of the reform, their responses to its conceptualisation, supporting documentation and implications for changing work practices were generally characterised by reduced confidence, anger and frustration. Though the impact of outcomes-based curriculum reform must be interpreted through the inter-relationships of a broad range of elements which comprise teachers' work and their attitudes towards their work, it is proposed that the substantive findings of the study can be understood in terms of four broad themes. First, when the conceptual design of outcomes did not serve teachers' accountability requirements and outcomes were perceived to be expressed in unfamiliar technical language, most teachers in the study lost faith in the value of the reform and lost confidence in their own abilities to understand or implement it. Second, this reduction of confidence was intensified when the scope of outcomes was outside the scope of the teachers' existing curriculum and assessment planning and teachers were confronted with the necessity to include aspects of syllabuses or school programs which they had previously omitted because of a lack of understanding or appreciation. The corollary was that outcomes promoted greater syllabus fidelity when frameworks were closely aligned. Third, other benefits the teachers associated with outcomes included the development of whole school curriculum resources and greater opportunity for teacher collaboration, particularly among schools. The teachers, however, considered a wide range of factors when determining the overall impact of the reform, and perceived a number of them in terms of the costs of implementation. These included the emergence of ethical dilemmas concerning relationships with students, colleagues and parents, reduced individual autonomy, particularly with regard to the selection of valued curriculum content and intensification of workload with the capacity to erode the relationships with students which teachers strongly associated with the rewards of their profession. Finally, in banding together at the school level to resist aspects of implementation, some teachers showed growing awareness of a collective authority capable of being exercised in response to top-down reform. These findings imply that Student Performance Standards require review and, additional implementation resourcing to support teachers through times of reduced confidence in their own abilities. Outcomes prove an effective means of high-fidelity syllabus implementation, and, provided they are expressed in an accessible way and aligned with syllabus frameworks and terminology, should be considered for inclusion in future syllabuses across a range of learning areas. The study also identifies a range of unintended consequences of outcomes-based curriculum and acknowledges the complexity of relationships among all the aspects of teachers' work. It also notes that the impact of reform on teacher perspectives of professional practice may alter teacher-teacher and school-system relationships in ways that have the potential to influence the effectiveness of future curriculum reform.

A Python package for Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation provides a solution to the complex integration problems that are faced in the Bayesian analysis of statistical problems. The implementation of MCMC algorithms is, however, code intensive and time consuming. We have developed a Python package, which is called PyMCMC, that aids in the construction of MCMC samplers and helps to substantially reduce the likelihood of coding error, as well as aid in the minimisation of repetitive code. PyMCMC contains classes for Gibbs, Metropolis Hastings, independent Metropolis Hastings, random walk Metropolis Hastings, orientational bias Monte Carlo and slice samplers as well as specific modules for common models such as a module for Bayesian regression analysis. PyMCMC is straightforward to optimise, taking advantage of the Python libraries Numpy and Scipy, as well as being readily extensible with C or Fortran.

Renal and genitourinary emergencies

Genitourinary (GU) problems are a common complaint in the community and to the emergency department (ED). Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are the second most common bacterial disease. UTIs rank as the sixteenth most frequently reported problem to general practitioners in Australia1 and between 10% and 20% of women will experience at least one UTI in their lifetime. Over 1,000,000 Australians are currently suffering with nephrolithiasis (renal calculi) and it is hy-pothesised that Australia’s hot, dry climate causes more stone formation than many other coun-tries in the world. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of any trauma. Hypovol-aemia results in severe hypotension and this precipitates the development of acute tubular necrosis and subsequent AKI. The incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is rising across the world. CKD is classified into five stages with those in stage 5 being classified as being in end stage kidney disease (ESKD). It is estimated that there are over 1.5 million people in Australia with CKD and there were over 16,000 Australians and over 2900 individuals in New Zealand with ESKD.2 Indigenous populations from both countries (Aboriginals, Torres Strait Islanders, Maoris, and Pacific Islanders) are over-represented in the number of people with all stages of CKD in both countries. Patients with compromised renal function often require the assistance of paramedics and will arrive at the ED with life-threatening fluid and electrolyte imbalances. Spe-cific GU emergencies discussed in this chapter are acute renal failure, rhabdomyolysis, chronic kidney disease, UTIs, acute urinary retention, urinary calculi, testicular torsion, epididymitis, and priapism. Refer to Chapter 31 for discussion of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in women and to Chapter X for discussion of genitourinary trauma.

Comparison of three-dimensional profiles over time

In this paper, we describe an analysis for data collected on a three-dimensional spatial lattice with treatments applied at the horizontal lattice points. Spatial correlation is accounted for using a conditional autoregressive model. Observations are defined as neighbours only if they are at the same depth. This allows the corresponding variance components to vary by depth. We use the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with block updating, together with Krylov subspace methods, for efficient estimation of the model. The method is applicable to both regular and irregular horizontal lattices and hence to data collected at any set of horizontal sites for a set of depths or heights, for example, water column or soil profile data. The model for the three-dimensional data is applied to agricultural trial data for five separate days taken roughly six months apart in order to determine possible relationships over time. The purpose of the trial is to determine a form of cropping that leads to less moist soils in the root zone and beyond.We estimate moisture for each date, depth and treatment accounting for spatial correlation and determine relationships of these and other parameters over time.

A Bayesian analysis of an agricultural field trial with three spatial dimensions

Modern technology now has the ability to generate large datasets over space and time. Such data typically exhibit high autocorrelations over all dimensions. The field trial data motivating the methods of this paper were collected to examine the behaviour of traditional cropping and to determine a cropping system which could maximise water use for grain production while minimising leakage below the crop root zone. They consist of moisture measurements made at 15 depths across 3 rows and 18 columns, in the lattice framework of an agricultural field. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are used to account for local site correlations. Conditional autoregressive models have not been widely used in analyses of agricultural data. This paper serves to illustrate the usefulness of these models in this field, along with the ease of implementation in WinBUGS, a freely available software package. The innovation is the fitting of separate conditional autoregressive models for each depth layer, the ‘layered CAR model’, while simultaneously estimating depth profile functions for each site treatment. Modelling interest also lay in how best to model the treatment effect depth profiles, and in the choice of neighbourhood structure for the spatial autocorrelation model. The favoured model fitted the treatment effects as splines over depth, and treated depth, the basis for the regression model, as measured with error, while fitting CAR neighbourhood models by depth layer. It is hierarchical, with separate onditional autoregressive spatial variance components at each depth, and the fixed terms which involve an errors-in-measurement model treat depth errors as interval-censored measurement error. The Bayesian framework permits transparent specification and easy comparison of the various complex models compared.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks Method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.