Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Pairs trading profits in commodity futures markets

This study employs a pairs trading investment strategy on daily commodity futures returns. The study reveals that pairs trading in similarly related commodity futures earns statistically significant excess returns with commensurate volatility. The excess returns from pairs trading in commodity futures are unrelated to conventional market risk factors and they are not associated with classic contrarian investing. The evidence of pairs trading reflect compensation to arbitrageurs for enforcing the law of one price in similarly related market efficiency.

Distribution of benefits of irrigation induced technological changes and commodity markets : new evidence

A plethora of literature exists on irrigation development. However, only a few studies analyse the distributional issues associated with irrigation induced technological changes (IITC) in the context of commodity markets. Furthermore, these studies deal with only the theoretical arguments and to date no proper investigation has been conducted to examine the long-term benefits of adopting modern irrigation technology. This study investigates the long-term benefit changes of irrigation induced technological changes using data from Sri Lanka with reference to rice farming. The results show that (1) adopting modern technology on irrigation increases the overall social welfare through consumption of a larger quantity at a lower cost (2) the magnitude, sensitivity and distributional gains depend on the price elasticity of demand and supply as well as the size of the marketable surplus (3) non-farm sector gains are larger than farm sector gains (4) the distribution of the benefits among different types of producers depend on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated areas as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (5) selective technological adoption and subsidies have a detrimental effect on the welfare of other producers who do not enjoy the same benefits (6) the short-term distributional effects are more severe than the long-term effects among different groups of farmers.

Revisiting 'how we learn' in academia : practice-based learning exchanges in three Australian universities

Ideas of 'how we learn' in formal academic settings have changed markedly in recent decades. The primary position that universities once held on shaping what constitutes learning has come into question from a range of experience-led and situated learning models. Drawing on findings from a study conducted across three Australian universities, the article focuses on the multifarious learning experiences indicative of practice-based learning exchanges such as student placements. Building on both experiential and situated learning theories, the authors found that students can experience transformative and emotional elucidations of learning, that can challenge tacit assumptions and transform the ways they understand the world. It was found that all participants (hosts, students, academics) both teach and learn in these educative scenarios and that, contrary to common (mis)perceptions that academics live in 'ivory towers', they play a crucial role in contributing to learning that takes place in the so-called 'real world'.

Automated proofs for Diffie–Hellman–based key exchanges

We present an automated verification method for security of Diffie–Hellman–based key exchange protocols. The method includes a Hoare-style logic and syntactic checking. The method is applied to protocols in a simplified version of the Bellare–Rogaway–Pointcheval model (2000). The security of the protocol in the complete model can be established automatically by a modular proof technique of Kudla and Paterson (2005).

Simple classification of walking activities using commodity smart phones

People interact with mobile computing devices everywhere, while sitting, walking, running or even driving. Adapting the interface to suit these contexts is important, thus this paper proposes a simple human activity classification system. Our approach uses a vector magnitude recognition technique to detect and classify when a person is stationary (or not walking), casually walking, or jogging, without any prior training. The user study has confirmed the accuracy.

Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics

Stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets. We estimate sudden and gradual changes in correlation between stocks, bonds and commodity futures returns driven by observable financial variables and time, using double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC–GARCH) models. Most correlations begin the 1990s near zero but closer integration emerges around the early 2000s and reaches peaks during the recent crisis. Diversification benefits to investors across equity, bond and stock markets were significantly reduced. Increases in VIX and financial traders’ short open interest raise futures returns volatility for many commodities. Higher VIX also increases commodity returns correlation with equity returns for about half the pairs, indicating closer integration.

What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks

We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.

Motivations for eWOM exchanges in an online community : self-development, problem solving support, relaxation

Electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) has gained significant attention from academics and practitioners since it has become an important source of consumers’ product information, which can influence consumer purchase intentions (Cheung & Lee, 2012). eWOM exchanges exist in two types of online communities: online communities of practice and online communities of interest. A few prior studies in online communities of interest have examined members’ motivations for product knowledge exchange (Hung & Li, 2007; Ma & Agarwal, 2007). However, there is a lack of understanding of member motivations for exchanging social bonds and enjoyment in addition to exchanging knowledge pertaining to products in the community. It is important to have an initial comprehension of motivation as an antecedent of these three eWOM exchanges so as to be able to determine the driving factors that lead members to generate eWOM communication. Thus, the research problem "What are the driving factors for members to exchange eWOM in an online community?" was justified for investigation. The purpose of this study was to examine different member motivations for exchanging three types of eWOM. Resource exchange theory and theory on consumer motivation and behavior were applied to develop a conceptual framework for this study. This study focused on an online beauty community since there is an increasing trend of consumers turning to online beauty resources so as to exchange useful beauty product information (SheSpot, 2011). As this study examined consumer motivation in an online beauty community, a web-based survey was the most effective and efficient way to gain responses from beauty community members and these members were appropriate samples from which to draw a conclusion about the whole population. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the relationships between member motivations and eWOM exchanges. It was found that members have different motivations for exchanging knowledge, social bonds, and enjoyment related to products: self-development, problem solving support, and relaxation, respectively. This study makes three theoretical contributions. First, this study identifies the influence of self-development motivation on knowledge exchange in an online community of interest, just as this motivation has previously been found in online communities of practice. This study highlights that members of the two different types of online communities share similar goals of knowledge exchange, despite the two communities evincing different attributes (e.g., member characteristics and tasks’ objectives). Further, this study will assist researchers to understand other motivations identified by prior research in online communities of practice since such motivations may be applicable to online communities of interest. Second, this study offers a new perspective on member motivation for social bonding. This study indicates that in addition to social support from friends and family, consumers are motivated to build social bonds with members in an online community of interest since they are an important source of problem solving support in regard to products. Finally, this study extends the body of knowledge pertaining to member motivation for enjoyment exchange. This study provides a basis for researchers to understand that members in an online community of interest value experiential aspects of enjoyable consumption activities, and thus based on group norms, members have a mutual desire for relaxation from enjoyment exchange. The major practical contribution is that this study provides an important guideline for marketing managers to develop different marketing strategies based on member motivations for exchanging three types of eWOM in an online community of interest, such as an online beauty community. This will potentially help marketing managers increase online traffic and revenue, and thus bring success to the community. Although, this study contributes to the literature by highlighting three distinctive member motivations for eWOM exchanges in an online community of interest, there are some possible research limitations. First, this study was conducted in an online beauty community in Australia. Hence, further research should replicate this study in other industries and nations so as to give the findings greater generalisability. Next, online beauty community members are female skewed. Thus, future research should examine whether similar patterns of motivations would emerge in other online communities that tend to be populated by males (e.g., communities focused on football). Further, a web-based survey has its limitations in terms of self-selection and self-reporting (Bhatnagar & Ghose, 2004). Therefore, further studies should test the framework by employing different research methods in order to overcome these weaknesses.

Resources for improving journalists' understanding of the economic and financial parameters of Australia's agricultural and commodity producers

The research addresses how an understanding of the fundamentals of economics will better inform general journalists who report on issues or events affecting rural and regional Australia. The research draws on practice-based experience of the author, formal economics studies, interviews with news editors from Australian television news organisations, and interviews from leading economists. A guidebook has also been written to help journalists apply economic theories to their reporting. The guidebook enables reporters to think strategically and consider the 'big picture' when they inform society about policies, commodity trade, the environment, or any issues involving rural and regional Australia.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.

Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.