Modelling urban public transit users' route choice behaviour: review and outlook

This paper reviews the main development of approaches to modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour from 1960s to the present. The approaches reviewed include the early heuristic studies on finding the least cost transit route and all-or-nothing transit assignment, the bus common line problem and corresponding network representation methods, the disaggregate discrete choice models which are based on random utility maximization assumptions, the deterministic use equilibrium and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models using either frequency or schedule based network formulation. In addition to reviewing past outcomes, this paper also gives an outlook into the possible future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviour. Based on the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems in an urban road area, this paper points out that it is rewarding for transit route choice research to draw inspiration from the intellectual outcomes out of the road area. Particularly, in light of the recent advancement of modelling motorists’ complex road route choice behaviour, this paper advocates that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the complexities of the problem.

Modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour : a review and outlook

Public transport is one of the key promoters of sustainable urban transport. To encourage and increase public transport patronage it is important to investigate the route choice behaviours of urban public transit users. This chapter reviews the main developments of modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviours in a historical perspective, from the 1960s to the present time. The approaches re- viewed for this study include the early heuristic studies on finding the least-cost transit route and all-or- nothing transit assignment, the bus common lines problem, the disaggregate discrete choice models, the deterministic and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models. This chapter also provides an outlook for the future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviours. Through the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems, this chapter advocates that transit route choice research should draw inspiration from the research outcomes from the road area, and that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the behavioural complexities.

Measurement of transit network accessibility based on access stop choice behaviour

This research improved the measurement of public transport accessibility by capturing; travellers' behaviour; diversity of public transport mode; and the subjectivity of travellers' decision in the complex transport networks. The results of this research not only highlighted the importance of considering public transport network characteristics but also, revealed the impact of public transport diversity in the modelling of public transport accessibility. The research developed a hybrid discrete choice model with a nested logit structure to treat the correlation among the public transport mode choices and, a logit correction factor to rectify the correlation among the stop choices.

Self-proxy agreement and weekly school travel behaviour in a sectarian divided society

Proxy reports from parents and self-reported data from pupils have often been used interchangeably to identify factors influencing school travel behaviour. However, few studies have examined the validity of proxy reports as an alternative to self-reported data. In addition, despite research that has been conducted in a different context, little is known to date about the impact of different factors on school travel behaviour in a sectarian divided society. This research examines these issues using 1624 questionnaires collected from four independent samples (e.g. primary pupils, parent of primary pupils, secondary pupils, and parent of secondary pupils) across Northern Ireland. An independent sample t test was conducted to identify the differences in data reporting between pupils and parents for different age groups using the reported number of trips for different modes as dependent variables. Multivariate multiple regression analyses were conducted to then identify the impacts of different factors (e.g. gender, rural–urban context, multiple deprivations, and school management type, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density) on mode choice behaviour in this context. Results show that proxy report is a valid alternative to self-reported data, but only for primary pupils. Land use diversity and rural–urban context were found to be the most important factors in influencing mode choice behaviour.

Residential dissonance and mode choice

Residential dissonance refers to the mismatch in land-use patterns between individuals’ preferred residential neighbourhood type and the type of neighbourhood in which they currently reside. Current knowledge regarding the impact of residential dissonance is limited to short-term travel behaviours in urban vs. suburban, and rural vs. urban areas. Although the prevailing view is that dissonants adjust their orientation and lifestyle around their surrounding land use over time, empirical evidence is lacking to support this proposition. This research identifies both short-term mode choice behaviour and medium-term mode shift behaviour of dissonants in transit oriented development (TODs) vs. non-TOD areas in Brisbane, Australia. Natural groupings of neighbourhood profiles (e.g. residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, cul-de-sac density, and public transport accessibility levels) of 3957 individuals were identified as living either in a TOD (510 individuals) or non-TOD (3447 individuals) areas in Brisbane using the TwoStep cluster analysis technique. Levels of dissonance were measured based on a factor analysis of 16 items representing the travel attitudes/preferences of individuals. Two multinomial logistic (MNL) regression models were estimated to understand mode choice behaviour of (1) TOD dissonants, and (2) non-TOD dissonants in 2009, controlling for socio-demographics and environmental characteristics. Two additional MNL regression models were estimated to investigate mode shift behaviour of (3) TOD dissonants, and (4) non-TOD dissonants between 2009 and 2011, also controlling for socio-demographic, changes in socio-demographic, and built environmental factors. The findings suggest that travel preference is relatively more influential in transport mode choice decisions compared with built environment features. Little behavioural evidence was found to support the adjustment of a dissonant orientation toward a particular land use feature and mode accessibility they represent (e.g. a modal shift to greater use of the car for non-TOD dissonants). TOD policies should focus on reducing the level of dissonance in TODs in order to enhance transit ridership.

Do dissonants in transit oriented development adjust commuting travel behaviour?

Residential dissonance signifies a mismatch between an individual’s preferred and actual proximal land use patterns in residential neighbourhoods, whereas residential consonance signifies agreement between actual and preferred proximal land uses. Residential dissonance is a relatively unexplored theme in the literature, yet it acts as a barrier to the development of sustainable transport and land use policy. This research identifies mode choice behaviour of four groups living in transit oriented development (TOD) and non-TOD areas in Brisbane, Australia using panel data from 2675 commuters: TOD consonants, TOD dissonants, non-TOD consonants, and non-TOD dissonants. The research investigates a hypothetical understanding that dissonants adjust their travel attitudes and perceptions according to their surrounding land uses over time. The adjustment process was examined by comparing the commuting mode choice behaviour of dissonants between 2009 and 2011. Six binary logistic regression models were estimated, one for each of the three modes considered (e.g. public transport, active transport, and car) and one for each of the 2009 and 2011 waves. Results indicate that TOD dissonants and non-TOD consonants were less likely to use the public transport and active transport; and more likely to use the car compared with TOD consonants. Non-TOD dissonants use public transport and active transport equally to TOD consonants. The results suggest that commuting mode choice behaviour is largely determined by travel attitudes than built environment factors; however, the latter influence public transport and car use propensity. This research also supports the view that dissonants adjust their attitudes to surrounding land uses, but very slowly. Both place (e.g. TOD development) and people-based (e.g. motivational) policies are needed for an effective travel behavioural shift.

Commuting mode choice in transit oriented development: Disentangling the effects of competitive neighbourhoods, travel attitudes, and self-selection

This research identifies the commuting mode choice behaviour of 3537 adults living in different types of transit oriented development (TOD) in Brisbane by disentangling the effects of their “evil twin” transit adjacent developments (TADs), and by also controlling for residential self-selection, travel attitudes and preferences, and socio-demographic effects. A TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to identify the natural groupings of respondents’ living environment based on six built environment indicators. The analysis resulted in five types of neighbourhoods: urban TODs, activity centre TODs, potential TODs, TADs, and traditional suburbs. HABITAT survey data were used to derive the commute mode choice behaviour of people living in these neighbourhoods. In addition, statements reflecting both respondents’ travel attitudes and living preferences were also collected as part of the survey. Factor analyses were conducted based on these statements and these derived factors were then used to control for residential self-selection. Four binary logistic regression models were estimated, one for each of the travel modes used (e.g. public transport, active transport, less sustainable transport such as the car/taxi, and other), to differentiate between the commuting behaviour of people living in the five types of neighbourhoods. The findings verify that urban TODs enhance the use of public transport and reduce car usage. No significant difference was found in the commuting behaviour between respondents living in traditional suburbs and TADs. The results confirm the hypothesis that TADs are the “evil twin” of TODs. The data indicates that TADs and the mode choices of residents in these neighbourhoods is a missed transport policy opportunity. Further policy efforts are required for a successive transition of TADs into TODs in order to realise the full benefits of these. TOD policy should also be integrated with context specific TOD design principles.

Parents’ risky choices around the IB Diploma

In recent years there has been a rapid growth in the International Baccalaureate Diploma(IBD), a secondary curriculum administered by the International Baccalaureate Organisation(IBO), as an alternative to the local curriculum in Australian schools in some schools. This growth is indicative of an increasing demand from Australian families for new educational structures, practices and processes. With more curriculum options and pathways such as the IBD available in the secondary education system, parents are faced with a more complex high stakes decision when it comes to choosing the optimal education path for their offspring, one which requires a careful assessment of potential outcomes and risks. This paper reports on the responses of 184 parents to an online survey conducted in 26 Australian schools that offer the IBD as a curricular alternative. It examines which parents either chose, or chose not to, enrol their children in the program, why, and what risks they perceived to be associated with that choice. The paper will compare the choice behaviour of the two groups of parents from a sociological perspective, framing the enquiry with reference to globalisation and neo-liberal education policy and its effect on parental choice of schooling. This paper will make evident how parental choice of educational alternatives has become a more complicated process for Australian families.

Are low CO2 emitters in rural areas also socially excluded? An empirical investigation of travel diary data from rural Northern Ireland

The reduction of CO2 emissions and social exclusion are two key elements of UK transport strategy. Despite intensive research on each theme, little effort has so far been made linking the relationship between emissions and social exclusion. In addition, current knowledge on each theme is limited to urban areas; little research is available on these themes for rural areas. This research contributes to this gap in the literature by analysing 157 weekly activity-travel diary data collected from three case study areas with differential levels of area accessibility and area mobility options, located in rural Northern Ireland. Individual weekly CO2 emission levels from personal travel diaries (both hot exhaust emission and cold-start emission) were calculated using average speed models for different modes of transport. The socio-spatial patterns associated with CO2 emissions were identified using a general linear model whereas binary logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify mode choice behaviour and activity patterns. This research found groups that emitted a significantly lower level of CO2 included individuals living in an area with a higher level of accessibility and mobility, non-car, non-working, and low-income older people. However, evidence in this research also shows that although certain groups (e.g. those working, and residing in an area with a lower level of accessibility) emitted higher levels of CO2, their rate of participation in activities was however found to be significantly lower compared to their counterparts. Based on the study findings, this research highlights the need for both soft (e.g. teleworking) and physical (e.g. accessibility planning) policy measures in rural areas in order to meet government’s stated CO2 reduction targets while at the same time enhancing social inclusion.

From barrier elimination to barrier negotiation : a qualitative study of parents' attitudes about active travel for elementary school trips

This paper examines parents' responses to key factors associated with mode choices for school trips. The research was conducted with parents of elementary school students in Denver Colorado as part of a larger investigation of school travel. School-based active travel programs aim to encourage students to walk or bike to school more frequently. To that end, planning research has identified an array of factors associated with parents' decisions to drive children to school. Many findings are interpreted as ‘barriers’ to active travel, implying that parents have similar objectives with respect to travel mode choices and that parents respond similarly and consistently to external conditions. While the conclusions are appropriate in forecasting demand and mode share with large populations, they are generally too coarse for programs that aim to influence travel behavior with individuals and small groups. This research uses content analysis of interview transcripts to examine the contexts of factors associated with parents' mode choices for trips to and from elementary school. Short, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 65 parents from 12 Denver Public Elementary Schools that had been selected to receive 2007–08 Safe Routes to School non-infrastructure grants. Transcripts were analyzed using Nvivo 8.0 to find out how parents respond to selected factors that are often described in planning literature as ‘barriers’ to active travel. Two contrasting themes emerged from the analysis: barrier elimination and barrier negotiation. Regular active travel appears to diminish parents' perceptions of barriers so that negotiation becomes second nature. Findings from this study suggest that intervention should build capacity and inclination in order to increase rates of active travel.

Information provision and network performance represented by Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram

The existence of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), which relates network space-mean density and flow, has been shown in urban networks under homogeneous traffic conditions. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performances, studies on perimeter control strategies and an area traffic state estimation utilizing the MFD concept has been reported. The key requirements for the well-defined MFD is the homogeneity of the area wide traffic condition, which is not universally expected in real world. For the practical application of the MFD concept, several researchers have identified the influencing factors for network homogeneity. However, they did not explicitly take drivers’ behaviour under real time information provision into account, which has a significant impact on the shape of the MFD. This research aims to demonstrate the impact of drivers’ route choice behaviour on network performance by employing the MFD as a measurement. A microscopic simulation is chosen as an experimental platform. By changing the ratio of en-route informed drivers and pre-trip informed drivers as well as by taking different route choice parameters, various scenarios are simulated in order to investigate how drivers’ adaptation to the traffic congestion influences the network performance and the MFD shape. This study confirmed and addressed the impact of information provision on the MFD shape and highlighted the significance of the route choice parameter setting as an influencing factor in the MFD analysis.

Impact of rain on daily bus ridership : a Brisbane case study

Weather is one of the most significant elements affecting transit ridership on a daily basis. Until now, there has been limited focus in the literature investigating this issue. Adverse weather conditions impact travellers in choosing travel mode and route, travel schedule, and trip making itself. This paper explores the relationship between adverse weather and transit ridership by analysing the correlation between daily bus ridership and daily precipitation for a three-year period from 2010 to 2012. It is observed from the analysis that wet weather has varying impacts on daily bus ridership. Overall, rainfall negatively affects the daily bus ridership in this region. Morning peak-hours and weekend ridership were found more sensitive to rain than entire day’s ridership and weekdays. The study also found a negative correlation between the morning-peak precipitation level and the daily bus ridership, which suggests that a small amount of morning peak-hours rain reduces a significant amount bus ridership for the whole day. The analysis also confirms that summer rain has the most significant effect on ridership compared with the other three seasons. The study findings will contribute to enhancing the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviours, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.

Advance transit oriented development typology : case study in Brisbane, Australia

Internationally, transit oriented development (TOD) is characterised by moderate to high density development with diverse land use patterns and well connected street networks centred around high frequency transit stops (bus and rail). Although different TOD typologies have been developed in different contexts, they are based on subjective evaluation criteria derived from the context in which they are built and typically lack a validation measure. Arguably there exist sets of TOD characteristics that perform better in certain contexts, and being able to optimise TOD effectiveness would facilitate planning and supporting policy development. This research utilises data from census collection districts (CCDs) in Brisbane with different sets of TOD attributes measured across six objectively quantified built environmental indicators: net employment density, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, cul-de-sac density, and public transport accessibility. Using these measures, a Two Step Cluster Analysis was conducted to identify natural groupings of the CCDs with similar profiles, resulting in four unique TOD clusters: (a) residential TODs, (b) activity centre TODs, (c) potential TODs, and; (d) TOD non-suitability. The typologies are validated by estimating a multinomial logistic regression model in order to understand the mode choice behaviour of 10,013 individuals living in these areas. Results indicate that in comparison to people living in areas classified as residential TODs, people who reside in non-TOD clusters were significantly less likely to use public transport (PT) (1.4 times), and active transport (4 times) compared to the car. People living in areas classified as potential TODs were 1.3 times less likely to use PT, and 2.5 times less likely to use active transport compared to using the car. Only a little difference in mode choice behaviour was evident between people living in areas classified as residential TODs and activity centre TODs. The results suggest that: (a) two types of TODs may be suitable for classification and effect mode choice in Brisbane; (b) TOD typology should be developed based on their TOD profile and performance matrices; (c) both bus stop and train station based TODs are suitable for development in Brisbane.

Adverse weather effects on bus ridership

This study focuses on weather effects on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given bus’ dominance in this city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its sub-tropical climate characteristics. Bus is prone to inclement weather condition as it shares the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer less or sometimes no protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are conjectured to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy day and daily bus ridership for the period of 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall affects negatively with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people may switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway (BRT) corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. Our study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.