Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Does the size of subsamples taken from multispecies trawl catches affect estimates of catch composition and abundance?

Although subsampling is a common method for describing the composition of large and diverse trawl catches, the accuracy of these techniques is often unknown. We determined the sampling errors generated from estimating the percentage of the total number of species recorded in catches, as well as the abundance of each species, at each increase in the proportion of the sorted catch. We completely partitioned twenty prawn trawl catches from tropical northern Australia into subsamples of about 10 kg each. All subsamples were then sorted, and species numbers recorded. Catch weights ranged from 71 to 445 kg, and the number of fish species in trawls ranged from 60 to 138, and invertebrate species from 18 to 63. Almost 70% of the species recorded in catches were "rare" in subsamples (less than one individual per 10 kg subsample or less than one in every 389 individuals). A matrix was used to show the increase in the total number of species that were recorded in each catch as the percentage of the sorted catch increased. Simulation modelling showed that sorting small subsamples (about 10% of catch weights) identified about 50% of the total number of species caught in a trawl. Larger subsamples (50% of catch weight on average) identified about 80% of the total species caught in a trawl. The accuracy of estimating the abundance of each species also increased with increasing subsample size. For the "rare" species, sampling error was around 80% after sorting 10% of catch weight and was just less than 50% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted. For the "abundant" species (five or more individuals per 10 kg subsample or five or more in every 389 individuals), sampling error was around 25% after sorting 10% of catch weight, but was reduced to around 10% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted.

Mitigating surgical risk in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty for fractures of the proximal femur

Recently the National Patient Safety Agency in the United Kingdom published a report entitled "Mitigating surgical risk in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty for fractures of the proximal femur". A total of 26 deaths had been reported to them when cement was used at hemiarthroplasty between October 2003 and October 2008. This paper considers the evidence for using cement fixation of a hemiarthroplasty in the treatment of hip fractures.

Paving pathways : shaping the public health workforce through tertiary education

Public health educational pathways in Australia have traditionally been the province of Universities, with the Master of Public Health (MPH) recognised as the flagship professional entry program. Public health education also occurs within the fellowship training of the Faculty of Public Health Medicine, but within Australia this remains confined to medical graduates. In recent years, however, we have seen a proliferation of undergraduate degrees as well as an increasing public health presence in the Vocational Education and Training (VET) sector. ----- Following the 2007 Australian Federal election, the new Labour government brought with it a refreshing commitment to a more inclusive and strategic style of government. An important example of this was the 2020 visioning process that identified key issues of public health concern, including an acknowledgment that it was unacceptable to allocate less than 2% of the health budget towards disease prevention. This led to the recommendation for the establishment of a national preventive health agency (Australia: the healthiest country by 2020 National Preventative Health Strategy, Prepared by the Preventative Health Taskforce 2009). ----- The focus on disease prevention places a spotlight on the workforce that will be required to deliver the new investment in health prevention, and also on the role of public health education in developing and upskilling the workforce. It is therefore timely to reflect on trends, challenges and opportunities from a tertiary sector perspective. Is it more desirable to focus education efforts on selected lead issues such as the “obesity epidemic”, climate change, Indigenous health and so on, or on the underlying theory and skills that build a flexible workforce capable of responding to a range of health challenges? Or should we aspire to both? ----- This paper presents some of the key discussion points from 2008 – 2009 of the Public Health Educational Pathways workshops and working group of the Australian Network of Public Health Institutions. We highlight some of the competing tensions in public health tertiary education, their impact on public health training programs, and the educational pathways that are needed to grow, shape and prepare the public health workforce for future challenges.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.