Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Australia, Korea and the Korean Question in the United Nations, 1946-1991

One previously unrecognised feature of the history of the political relationship between Australia and Korea is the role played by Australia as a member of the United Nations Organization in respect to the so-called Korea Question. Drawing on source documents from UN Resolutions and Australian Archives this article examines the changing positions of Australia as the Korea Question developed in the UN General Assembly. This spanned a period from the beginnings of the UN Organization until the time when both Koreas were admitted as members in 1991. The article proposes the Australian positions as responses to changing domestic and international political contexts.

Australia's disabling income support system : tracing the history of the Australian disability income support system 1908 to 2007 : disablism, citizenship and the basic income proposal

The present study examined the historical basis of the Australian disability income support system from 1908 to 2007. Although designed as a safety net for people with a disability, the disability income support system within Australia has been highly targeted. The original eligibility criteria of "permanently incapacitated for work", medical criteria and later "partially capacitated for work" potentially contained ideological inferences that permeated across the time period. This represents an important area for study given the potential consequence for disability income support to marginalise people with a disability. Social policy and disability policy theorists, including Saunders (2007, Social Policy Research Centre [SPRC]) and Gibilisco (2003) have provided valuable insight into some of the effects of disability policy and poverty. Yet while these theorists argued for some form of income support they did not propose a specific form of income security for further exploration. Few studies have undertaken a comprehensive review of the history of disability income support within the Australian context. This thesis sought to redress these gaps by examining disability income support policy within Australia. The research design consisted of an in-depth critical historical-comparative policy analysis methodology. The use of critical historical-comparative policy analysis allowed the researcher to trace the construction of disability within the Australian disability income support policy across four major historical epochs. A framework was developed specifically to guide analysis of the data. The critical discourse analysis method helped to understand the underlying ideological dimensions that led to the predominance of one particular approach over another. Given this, the research purpose of the study centred on: i. Tracing the history of the Australian disability income support system. ii. Examining the historical patterns and ideological assumptions over time. iii. Exploring the historical patterns and ideological assumptions underpinning an alternative model (Basic Income) and the extent to which each model promotes the social citizenship of people with a disability. The research commitment to a social-relational ontology and the quest for social change centred on the idea that "there has to be a better way" in the provision of disability income support. This theme of searching for an alternative reality in disability income support policy resonated throughout the thesis. This thesis found that the Australian disability income support system is disabling in nature and generates categories of disability on the basis of ableness. From the study, ableness became a condition for citizenship. This study acknowledged that, in reality, income support provision reflects only one aspect of the disabling nature of society which requires redressing. Although there are inherent tensions in any redistributive strategy, the Basic Income model potentially provides an alternative to the Australian disability income support system, given its grounding in social citizenship. The thesis findings have implications for academics, policy-makers and practitioners in terms of developing better ways to understand disability constructs in disability income support policy. The thesis also makes a contribution in terms of promoting income support policies based on the rights of all people, not just a few.

Decomposition of toxic chemical substance management in three U.S. manufacturing sectors from 1991 to 2008

This study analyzes toxic chemical substance management in three U.S. manufacturing sectors from 1991 to 2008. Decomposition analysis applying the logarithmic mean Divisia index is used to analyze changes in toxic chemical substance emissions by the following five factors: cleaner production, end-of-pipe treatment, transfer for further management, mixing of intermediate materials, and production scale. Based on our results, the chemical manufacturing sector reduced toxic chemical substance emissions mainly via end-of-pipe treatment. In the meantime, transfer for further management contributed to the reduction of toxic chemical substance emissions in the metal fabrication industry. This occurred because the environmental business market expanded in the 1990s, and the infrastructure for the recycling of metal and other wastes became more efficient. Cleaner production is the main contributor to toxic chemical reduction in the electrical product industry. This implies that the electrical product industry is successful in developing a more environmentally friendly product design and production process.

Did Brisbane grow smartly? Drivers of city growth 1991-2001 and lessons for current policies

Urban areas are growing unsustainably around the world; however, the growth patterns and their associated drivers vary between contexts. As a result, research has highlighted the need to adopt case study based approaches to stimulate the development of new theoretic understandings. Using land-cover data sets derived from Landsat images (30 m × 30 m), this research identifies both patterns and drivers of urban growth in a period (1991-2001) when a number of policy acts were enacted aimed at fostering smart growth in Brisbane, Australia. A linear multiple regression model was estimated using the proportion of lands that were converted from non-built-up (1991) to built-up usage (2001) within a suburb as a dependent variable to identify significant drivers of land-cover changes. In addition, the hot spot analysis was conducted to identify spatial biases of land-cover changes, if any. Results show that the built-up areas increased by 1.34% every year. About 19.56% of the non-built-up lands in 1991 were converted into built-up lands in 2001. This conversion pattern was significantly biased in the northernmost and southernmost suburbs in the city. This is due to the fact that, as evident from the regression analysis, these suburbs experienced a higher rate of population growth, and had the availability of habitable green field sites in relatively flat lands. The above findings suggest that the policy interventions undertaken between the periods were not as effective in promoting sustainable changes in the environment as they were aimed for.

Australia's disabling income support system: Tracing the history of the disability pension from 1908 to today

This article is based on a historical-comparative policy and discourse analysis of the principles underpinning the Australian disability income support system. It determines that these principles rely on a conception of disability that sustains a system of coercion and paternalism that perpetuates disability and referred to as disablism. The article examines the construction of disability in Australian income support across four major historical epochs spanning the period 1908-2007. Contextualisation of the policy trajectory and discourses of the contemporary disability pension regime for the time period 2008-now is also provided. Two major themes were found to have interacted with the ideology of disablism. This article argues that a non-disabling provision based on social citizenship, rather than responsible or productive citizenship, counters the tendency for authoritarian and paternal approaches. [Abridged]

Lower limb amputation in Northern Netherlands: Unchanged incidence from 1991-1992 to 2003-2004

Background Investigating population changes gives insight into effectiveness and need for prevention and rehabilitation services. Incidence rates of amputation are highly varied, making it difficult to meaningfully compare rates between studies and regions or to compare changes over time. Study Design Historical cohort study of transtibial amputation, knee disarticulation, and transfemoral amputations resulting from vascular disease or infection, with/without diabetes, in 2003-2004, in the three Northern provinces of the Netherlands. Objectives To report the incidence of first transtibial amputation, knee disarticulation, or transfemoral amputation in 2003-2004 and the characteristics of this population, and to compare these outcomes to an earlier reported cohort from 1991 to 1992. Methods Population-based incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 person-years and compared across the two cohorts. Results Incidence of amputation was 8.8 (all age groups) and 23.6 (≥45 years) per 100,000 person-years. This was unchanged from the earlier study of 1991-1992. The relative risk of amputation was 12 times greater for people with diabetes than for people without diabetes. Conclusions Investigation is needed into reasons for the unchanged incidence with respect to the provision of services from a range of disciplines, including vascular surgery, diabetes care, and multidisciplinary foot clinics. Clinical relevance This study shows an unchanged incidence of amputation over time and a high risk of amputation related to diabetes. Given the increased prevalence of diabetes and population aging, both of which present an increase in the population at risk of amputation, finding methods for reducing the rate of amputation is of importance.