Property cash flow studies : focusing on model consistency and data accuracy

The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.

The 'rise' of Aboriginal women, from domesticated cow to cash cow

The recent claims from former Queensland Labor MP Gary Johns that “a lot of poor women in this country, a large proportion of whom are Aboriginal, are used as cash cows” who are “kept pregnant and producing children for the cash” are somewhat alarming, but not surprising...

Accounting : building business skills, 3rd ed.

The new edition of this widely used and respected introductory accounting textbook continues to provide students and academics with a well written and accessible resource, with ample illustrations and applications to business for a first study of accounting. The text effectively maintains the balance between a 'user' and 'preparer' perspective by integrating real financial information and business decisions throughout. Through the use of real company information and financial statements students will quickly appreciate the use and users of accounting information. The textbook clearly outlines to students how a financial statement - such as a balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement - communicates the financing, operating, and investing activities of a business. The text builds a strong conceptual understanding and develops skills in the application of accounting principles and techniques, providing students with a solid foundation for further studies in accounting. The integral role of financial statements for decision making is also emphasised in this text and is reinforced throughout by the Decision Toolkit in each chapter. Students are provided with an extensive set of tools necessary to make business decisions based on financial information.

Evaluation of functional performance in commercial buildings

This report fully summarises a project designed to enhance commercial real estate performance within both operational and investment contexts through the development of a model aimed at supporting improved decision-making. The model is based on a risk adjusted discounted cash flow, providing a valuable toolkit for building managers, owners, and potential investors for evaluating individual building performance in terms of financial, social and environmental criteria over the complete life-cycle of the asset. The ‘triple bottom line’ approach to the evaluation of commercial property has much significance for the administrators of public property portfolios in particular. It also has applications more generally for the wider real estate industry given that the advent of ‘green’ construction requires new methods for evaluating both new and existing building stocks. The research is unique in that it focuses on the accuracy of the input variables required for the model. These key variables were largely determined by market-based research and an extensive literature review, and have been fine-tuned with extensive testing. In essence, the project has considered probability-based risk analysis techniques that required market-based assessment. The projections listed in the partner engineers’ building audit reports of the four case study buildings were fed into the property evaluation model developed by the research team. The results are strongly consistent with previously existing, less robust evaluation techniques. And importantly, this model pioneers an approach for taking full account of the triple bottom line, establishing a benchmark for related research to follow. The project’s industry partners expressed a high degree of satisfaction with the project outcomes at a recent demonstration seminar. The project in its existing form has not been geared towards commercial applications but it is anticipated that QDPW and other industry partners will benefit greatly by using this tool for the performance evaluation of property assets. The project met the objectives of the original proposal as well as all the specified milestones. The project has been completed within budget and on time. This research project has achieved the objective by establishing research foci on the model structure, the key input variable identification, the drivers of the relevant property markets, the determinants of the key variables (Research Engine no.1), the examination of risk measurement, the incorporation of risk simulation exercises (Research Engine no.2), the importance of both environmental and social factors and, finally the impact of the triple bottom line measures on the asset (Research Engine no. 3).

Safer construction voluntary code of practice : implications for SMEs

The majority of Australian construction firms are small businesses, with 97% of general construction businesses employing less than 20 employees and 85% employing less than five employees (Lin and Mills, 2001; Lingard and Holmes, 2001). The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ definition of a small to medium enterprise was used for the purpose of this study (McLennan, 2000). This included small business employing less than twenty people and medium business employing less than 200 people. Although small to medium enterprises (SME) make up the major share of construction organisations in Australia, there is a paucity of published research in relation to occupational health and safety (OHS) issues for this group. Typically, SME organisations “are frequently undercapitalized and depend on continuous cash flow for their continued business” (Cole, 2003; 12). Research by Lin and Mills (2001) indicates that these factors influence the smaller operators’ ability and motivation to achieve high levels of OHS compared to larger firms which tend to integrate OHS into their management systems. According to Lin and Mills (2001; 137) small firms “do not feel the need to focus on OHS in their management systems, instead they often believe that the control of risk is the responsibility of employees”. This report documents findings from a qualitative research study that examined SME organisations’ views of a newly developed voluntary code of practice (VCOP), and ways in which they might implement the code in their businesses. The research also explored respondents’ awareness of current safety issues in industry in the context of their personal experiences.

CSI Lincoln : an investigation into a declining housing market

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over inflated and due for a major correction. Numerous media, Government Departments, property experts and economists have been predicting significant reductions in the median price of residential property throughout New Zealand. This paper will analyse house prices in specific socio-economic locations within Christchurch over the past 12 months to determine how significant the current housing decline is. This study will review the change in residential property prices, variations in property listings since April 2008, sale volumes and days on the market across a range of housing sectors to determine the extent and range of any residential property downturn in the NZ recession.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of valuers and agribusiness managers on farm management and sustainable rural land use

Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method, which can focus on the long term environmental and economic sustainability of the property being valued. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and sustainable rural land use. A particular focus of the research relates to the increased awareness of the problems of rural land degradation in Australia and the subsequent impact such problems have on the productivity of rural land. These problems of sustainable land use have resulted in the need to develop an approach to rural valuation practice that allows the valuer to factor the past management practices on the subject rural property into the actual valuation figure. An analysis of the past farm management and the inclusion of this data into the valuation methodology provides a much more reliable indication of farm sustainable economic value than the existing direct comparison valuation methodology.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0903, March 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, First I would like on behalf of all AITPM members to send our condolences to all who have been affected by February’s tragic bushfires in regional Victoria, and deliver our best wishes to all of those involved in the rebuilding efforts. Over time I expect that the Victorian Government’s Royal Commission will analyse the circumstances and put forward a range of measures which will improve fire safety in vulnerable areas. As transport professionals it will be important for us to consider the findings and look to undertaking any recommendations that relate to the work we do. Not only in Victoria, but nationwide. In particular, the importance of logistics was highlighted following the fire events. Donors across Australia were this time requested to donate money rather than goods, presumably due in part to problems associated with the transport system coping with additional uncoordinated freight load, whilst being needed to support emergency management vehicle and managed freight movements. Notwithstanding, it was wonderful to see otherwise difficult to obtain goods, such as animal feed, being donated from far afield and transported in kind by trucking operators. As stated in last month’s Newsletter, AITPM made a direct cash donation to the Red Cross Bushfire Appeal immediately following the events, and a further donation to the Queensland Premier’s Disaster Relief Fund to support recovery after the North Queensland floods, which claimed seven lives. Again, we will need to monitor how the rebuilding effort unfolds particularly in regional Victoria and centres including Ingham in North Queensland, but I would urge all AITPM members who are in a position to support the restoration of the affected communities to play a part, particularly over time once the initial shock subsides and the steady job of rebuilding is underway. Onto lighter matters, AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August, is fast approaching. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, and so forth. We are looking forward to catching up with our conference “regulars” and meeting with new folks to AITPM, and Australian traffic and transport planning and management. Adelaide is one of my favourite places to visit and I’m looking forward to riding the light rail line extension through town and checking out progress on the road system development. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of NSW valuers and agribusiness managers

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of Commercial, Industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although number of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, as well as the long term environmental viability of the farm, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method, especially in view of the impact that farm technical, financial and environmental .management can have on rural property values. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers and agribusiness managers in NSW, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property valuation practice.

The use of income valuation methods to value rural property

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of commercial, industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although the majority of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice should have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property income potential.

Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.

Residential property market performance in a declining market : Christchurch case study

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over-inflated and due for major correction.