How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

A brush with the real world : the future of inertial motion capture in live performance

3D Motion capture is a medium that plots motion, typically human motion, converting it into a form that can be represented digitally. It is a fast evolving field and recent inertial technology may provide new artistic possibilities for its use in live performance. Although not often used in this context, motion capture has a combination of attributes that can provide unique forms of collaboration with performance arts. The inertial motion capture suit used for this study has orientation sensors placed at strategic points on the body to map body motion. Its portability, real-time performance, ease of use, and its immunity from line-of-sight problems inherent in optical systems suggest it would work well as a live performance technology. Many animation techniques can be used in real-time. This research examines a broad cross-section of these techniques using four practice-led cases to assess the suitability of inertial motion capture to live performance. Although each case explores different visual possibilities, all make use of the performativity of the medium, using either an improvisational format or interactivity among stage, audience and screen that would be difficult to emulate any other way. A real-time environment is not capable of reproducing the depth and sophistication of animation people have come to expect through media. These environments take many hours to render. In time the combination of what can be produced in real-time and the tools available in a 3D environment will no doubt create their own tree of aesthetic directions in live performance. The case study looks at the potential of interactivity that this technology offers.

Cryptic diversity and evolutionary relationships among Australian closed-forest Melomys (Rodentia: Muridae) and related Australo-Papuan mosaic-tailed rats

This thesis investigates patterns of evolution in a group of native Australo-Papuan rodents. Past climatic change and associated sea level fluctuations, and fragmentation of wet forests in eastern Australia has facilitated rapid radiation, diversification and speciation in this group. This study adds to our understanding of the evolution of Australia’s rainforest fauna and describes the evolutionary relationships of a new genus of Australian rodent.

The Black-tailed Antechinus, Antechinus arktos sp. nov.: a new species of carnivorous marsupial from montane regions of the Tweed Volcano caldera, eastern Australia

We describe a new species of dasyurid marsupial within the genus Antechinus that was previously known as a northern outlier of Dusky Antechinus (A. swainsonii). The Black-tailed Antechinus, Antechinus arktos sp. nov., is known only from areas of high altitude and high rainfall on the Tweed Volcano caldera of far south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, Australia. Antechinus arktos formerly sheltered under the taxonomic umbrella of A. swainsonii mimetes, the widespread mainland form of Dusky Antechinus. With the benefit of genetic hindsight, some striking morphological differences are herein resolved: A. s. mimetes is more uniformly deep brown-black to grizzled grey-brown from head to rump, with brownish (clove brown—raw umber) hair on the upper surface of the hindfoot and tail, whereas A. arktos is more vibrantly coloured, with a marked change from greyish-brown head to orange-brown rump, fuscous black on the upper surface of the hindfoot and dense, short fur on the evenly black tail. Further, A. arktos has marked orange-brown fur on the upper and lower eyelid, cheek and in front of the ear and very long guard hairs all over the body; these characters are more subtle in A. s. mimetes. There are striking genetic differences between the two species: at mtDNA, A. s. mimetes from north-east New South Wales is 10% divergent to A. arktos from its type locality at Springbrook NP, Queensland. In contrast, the Ebor A. s. mimetes clades closely with conspecifics from ACT and Victoria. A. arktos skulls are strikingly different to all subspecies of A. swainsonii. A. arktos are markedly larger than A. s. mimetes and A. s. swainsonii (Tasmania) for a range of craniodental measures. Antechinus arktos were historically found at a few proximate mountainous sites in south-east Queensland, and have only recently been recorded from or near the type locality. Even there, the species is likely in low abundance. The Black-tailed Antechinus has plausibly been detrimentally affected by climate change in recent decades, and will be at further risk with increasing warming trends.

Temporal and spatial distribution and habitat associations of an urban population of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Two ultrasound survey methods were used to determine the presence and activity patterns of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) in the city of Hamilton. First, 13 monthly surveys conducted at 18 green spaces found C. tuberculatus in only one urban forest reserve, Hammond Bush, where they were found consistently throughout the year. Bat activity was strongly related to temperature. Second, twice-yearly citywide surveys conducted over 2 years determined the distribution and habitat associations of C. tuberculatus. Bats were found only in the southern part of the city and were strongly associated with the Waikato River. Bat activity was negatively correlated with housing and street light density and positively correlated with topographical complexity. In Hamilton, topographical complexity indicates the presence of gullies. Gullies probably provide foraging and roosting opportunities and connect the river to distant forest patches. These results suggest that urban habitats can be useful for bats if gullies can link these to distant habitat fragments.

Competition for pollination by the lesser short-tailed bat and its influence on the flowering phenology of some New Zealand endemics

The lesser short-tailed bat, Mystacina tuberculata, is the only native mammalian pollinator in New Zealand and the only fully temperate bat pollinator in the world. Although this unique status as a pollinator is well recognized, its reduced abundance and cryptic behaviour means little research has been undertaken to assess the contribution of the lesser short-tailed bat (hereafter ‘short-tailed bat’) to pollination in New Zealand. Accordingly, pollination by short-tailed bats has been assumed to be comparatively inconsequential, and the potential impacts of the bat's widespread extirpation have been overlooked. The recent discovery that the short-tailed bat is a major pollinator for at least some of the plants it visits emphasizes the importance of exploring this species' role as a pollinator. Here, our aim was to provide an assessment of the competition for short-tailed bat pollination through study of the temporal variation of flowering. Bats were sampled for pollen, and phenology surveys were conducted simultaneously. We found that the amount and type of pollen carried by the bats varied temporally, with one pollen type dominating samples at any given time. The two plants most consistently observed in the pollen samples flowered sequentially with little temporal overlap, suggesting that their flowering phenology may be adapted to minimize competition for the pollination services of the short-tailed bat.

Echolocation call production during aerial and terrestrial locomotion by New Zealand's enigmatic lesser short-tailed bat, Mystacina tuberculata

Linkage of echolocation call production with contraction of flight muscles has been suggested to reduce the energetic cost of flight with echolocation, such that the overall cost is approximately equal to that of flight alone. However, the pattern of call production with limb movement in terrestrially agile bats has never been investigated. We used synchronised high-speed video and audio recordings to determine patterns of association between echolocation call production and limb motion by Mystacina tuberculata Gray 1843 as individuals walked and flew, respectively. Results showed that there was no apparent linkage between call production and limb motion when bats walked. When in flight, two calls were produced per wingbeat, late in the downstroke and early in the upstroke. When bats walked, calls were produced at a higher rate, but at a slightly lower intensity, compared with bats in flight. These results suggest that M. tuberculata do not attempt to reduce the cost of terrestrial locomotion and call production through biomechanical linkage. They also suggest that the pattern of linkage seen when bats are in flight is not universal and that energetic savings cannot necessarily be explained by contraction of muscles associated with the downstroke alone.

The importance of exotic plantation forest for the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Environmental certification schemes have stimulated increasing interest in biodiversity and its management within exotic plantation forests. These schemes expect management to be scientifically-based, even though little is known about how often, or which, native species use exotic plantation forests. Greater knowledge of the ecology of native species within exotic plantation forests is required to advise management and reduce risks to native species, particularly those that are rare, such as the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus). Long-tailed bats use exotic plantation forests throughout New Zealand but need protection from the impacts of forest management, and particularly clear-fell harvest, that is achievable only through a better understanding of their biology. The consequences of the current reduced re-planting, and the conversion of plantation forests into pasture resulting in smaller forested areas, should not be ignored because they may be associated with reductions in long-tailed bat populations. We review the current knowledge of long-tailed bats' use of exotic plantation forests, and report for the first time which exotic plantations long-tailed bats are known to use. We make recommendations for the design of monitoring programmes to detect long-tailed bats within plantation forests, and for research into the effects of forest management, especially logging, and comment on the likely impacts of reductions in forested areas on long-tailed bats.