How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

A brush with the real world : the future of inertial motion capture in live performance

3D Motion capture is a medium that plots motion, typically human motion, converting it into a form that can be represented digitally. It is a fast evolving field and recent inertial technology may provide new artistic possibilities for its use in live performance. Although not often used in this context, motion capture has a combination of attributes that can provide unique forms of collaboration with performance arts. The inertial motion capture suit used for this study has orientation sensors placed at strategic points on the body to map body motion. Its portability, real-time performance, ease of use, and its immunity from line-of-sight problems inherent in optical systems suggest it would work well as a live performance technology. Many animation techniques can be used in real-time. This research examines a broad cross-section of these techniques using four practice-led cases to assess the suitability of inertial motion capture to live performance. Although each case explores different visual possibilities, all make use of the performativity of the medium, using either an improvisational format or interactivity among stage, audience and screen that would be difficult to emulate any other way. A real-time environment is not capable of reproducing the depth and sophistication of animation people have come to expect through media. These environments take many hours to render. In time the combination of what can be produced in real-time and the tools available in a 3D environment will no doubt create their own tree of aesthetic directions in live performance. The case study looks at the potential of interactivity that this technology offers.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

The role of self-efficacy in dental patients’ brushing and flossing: Testing an extended Health Belief Model

Objective: In an effort to examine the decreasing oral health trend of Australian dental patients, the Health Belief Model (HBM) was utilised to understand the beliefs underlying brushing and flossing self-care. The HBM states that perception of severity and susceptibility to inaction and an estimate of the barriers and benefits of behavioural performance influences people’s health behaviours. Self-efficacy, confidence in one’s ability to perform oral self-care, was also examined. Methods: In dental waiting rooms, a community sample (N = 92) of dental patients completed a questionnaire assessing HBM variables and self-efficacy, as well as their performance of the oral hygiene behaviours of brushing and flossing. Results: Partial support only was found for the HBM with barriers emerging as the sole HBM factor influencing brushing and flossing behaviours. Self-efficacy significantly predicted both oral hygiene behaviours also. Conclusion: Support was found for the control factors, specifically a consideration of barriers and self-efficacy, in the context of understanding dental patients’ oral hygiene decisions. Practice implications: Dental professionals should encourage patients’ self-confidence to brush and floss at recommended levels and discuss strategies that combat barriers to performance, rather than emphasising the risks of inaction or the benefits of oral self-care.

Doped poly(vinylidene fluoride) as solid polymer electrolyte in nanocrystalline dye-sensitized solar cell

A new solid composite polymer electrolyte was reported by incorporating Azino-bis-(3-ethyl benzo thiazoline-6-sulphonate) ion [ABTS] as dopant in poly(vinylidene flouride) along with redox couple (1-/13-). Under certain conditions, the electrolyte composition forms brush like nano-rods while it is doped with Azino-bis-(3-ethly) benzo thiazoline-6-sulphonate) ion [ABTS], a pi-electron donor. The polymer electrolyte forms nanoscale interpenetrating network with the crystalline order of the polymer electrolyte that seems to be a desirable architecture for the active layer of the photoelectrochemical cell. With this new polymer electrolyte, dye-sensitized solar cell was fabricated using N3 dye absorbed over Ti02- nonoparticles (photoanode) and conducting carbon cement coated on the conducting press (FTO, photocathode). This polymer composite has been successfully used as a promising candidate as solid polymer electrolyte in nanocrystalline dye-sensitized solar cell.

Ceremony and cybrary : Digital libraries and the dialectic of place and space

This article examines social, cultural and technological change in the systems and economies of educational information management. Since the Sumerians first collected, organized and supervised administrative and religious records some six millennia ago, libraries have been key physical depositories and cultural signifiers in the production and mediation of social capital and power through education. To date, the textual, archival and discursive practices perpetuating libraries have remained exempt from inquiry. My aim here is to remedy this hiatus by making the library itself the terrain and object of critical analysis and investigation. The paper argues that in the three dominant communications eras—namely, oral, print and digital cultures—society’s centres of knowledge and learning have resided in the ceremony, the library and the cybrary respectively. In a broad-brush historical grid, each of these key educational institutions—the ceremony in oral culture, the library in print culture and the cybrary in digital culture—are mapped against social, cultural and technological orders pertaining to their era. Following a description of these shifts in society’s collective cultural memory, the paper then examines the question of what the development of global information systems and economies mean for schools and libraries of today, and for teachers and learners as knowledge consumers and producers?

Exploring Rhythmic Automata

The use of Cellular Automata (CA) for musical purposes has a rich history. In general the mapping of CA states to note-level music representations has focused on pitch mapping and downplayed rhythm. This paper reports experiments in the application of one-dimensional cellular automata to the generation and evolution of rhythmic patterns. A selection of CA tendencies are identified that can be used as compositional tools to control the rhythmic coherence of monophonic passages and the polyphonic texture of musical works in broad-brush, rather than precisely deterministic, ways. This will provide the composer and researcher with a clearer understanding of the useful application of CAs for generative music.

A simulation-based training system for surgical wound debridement

A simulation-based training system for surgical wound debridement was developed and comprises a multimedia introduction, a surgical simulator (tutorial component), and an assessment component. The simulator includes two PCs, a haptic device, and mirrored display. Debridement is performed on a virtual leg model with a shallow laceration wound superimposed. Trainees are instructed to remove debris with forceps, scrub with a brush, and rinse with saline solution to maintain sterility. Research and development issues currently under investigation include tissue deformation models using mass-spring system and finite element methods; tissue cutting using a high-resolution volumetric mesh and dynamic topology; and accurate collision detection, cutting, and soft-body haptic rendering for two devices within the same haptic space.

A randomized controlled trial of a 10 percent CPP-ACP cream to reduce mutans streptococci colonization

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of a 10 percent casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP-ACP) cream to reduce mutans streptococci (MS) colonization and prevent early childhood caries. Methods The cohort was randomized at mean age of 11 days old to receive once-daily CPP-ACP cream (n=102) or no product (comparison group; n=89) from the time of first tooth eruption. All mothers were contacted by telephone at six, 12, and 18 months and advised to brush their children's teeth twice daily with low-dose fluoride toothpaste. At 24 months, all children were examined at a community clinic. Results At 24 months old, one out of 65 (2 percent) children in the CPP-ACP group had caries vs. four out of 58 (seven percent) in the comparison group (difference not statistically significant). There were fewer MS-positive children in the CPP-ACP group (26 percent) vs. the comparison group (47 percent; P=.02). A dose-response effect of CPP-ACP usage on MS was observed, where MS was present in eight percent of regular CPP-ACP users, 28 percent of irregular users, and 47 percent of non-users (P<.02). Conclusions CPP-ACP reduced the percentages of mutans streptococci-positive 24-month-old children, although it did not reduce caries prevalence.

Superhydrophobic Polymers

Superhydrophobic polymers are particularly attractive materials, as they combine low cost, ease of processing, and compatibility with a variety of applications. Surfaces that display the Cassie–Baxter wetting state are particularly attractive for their self-cleaning properties. In this chapter, a brief overview of the wetting principles will be followed by an account of several techniques currently used to impart superhydrophobicity onto polymer surfaces. Surface roughness and surface structure will be the focus of this chapter, with an emphasis on topographies that exhibit microscale or nanoscale features arranged in hierarchical order.