Is there timing ability in currency markets? Evidence from ADR issuances

Is there timing ability in the exchange rate markets? We address this question by examining foreign firms' decisions to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Specifically, we test whether foreign firms consider currency market conditions in their ADR issuance decisions and, in doing so, display some ability to time their local exchange rate market. We study ADR issuances in the U.S. stock market between 1976 and 2003. We find that foreign firms tend to issue ADRs after their local currency has been abnormally strong against the U.S. dollar and before their local currency becomes abnormally weak. This evidence is statistically significant even after controlling for local and U.S. past and future stock market performance and predicable exchange rate movements. Currency market timing is especially significant i) for value companies, relatively small (yet absolutely large) companies issuing relatively large amounts of ADRs, companies with higher currency exposure, manufacturing companies, and emerging market companies, ii) during currency crises (when mispricings are rife) and after the integration of the issuer's local financial market with the world capital markets, iii) when the ADR issue raises capital for the issuing firm (Level III ADR), and iv) regardless of the identity of the underwriting investment bank. Currency market timing is also economically significant since it translates into total savings for the issuing firms of about $646 million (or 1.86% of the total capital-raising ADR issue volume). In contrast, we find no evidence of currency timing ability in a control sample made of non-capital raising ADRs (Level II ADRs). These findings suggest that some companies may have, at least occasionally, private information about foreign exchange.

Diversification and value-at-risk

A pervasive and puzzling feature of banks’ Value-at-Risk (VaR) is its abnormally high level, which leads to excessive regulatory capital. A possible explanation for the tendency of commercial banks to overstate their VaR is that they incompletely account for the diversification effect among broad risk categories (e.g., equity, interest rate, commodity, credit spread, and foreign exchange). By underestimating the diversification effect, bank’s proprietary VaR models produce overly prudent market risk assessments. In this paper, we examine empirically the validity of this hypothesis using actual VaR data from major US commercial banks. In contrast to the VaR diversification hypothesis, we find that US banks show no sign of systematic underestimation of the diversification effect. In particular, diversification effects used by banks is very close to (and quite often larger than) our empirical diversification estimates. A direct implication of this finding is that individual VaRs for each broad risk category, just like aggregate VaRs, are biased risk assessments.

The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market

Owing to the discrete disclosure practices of the Reserve Bank of Australia, this paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions (monetary policy announcements) and statements (explanatory minutes releases), in the Australian equity market. Both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases are shown to have a significant and comparable impact on the returns and volatility of the Australian equity market. Further, distinct from US and European studies that find strong evidence of the interest rate, bank loan and balance sheet channels and no evidence of the exchange rate channel following central bank actions, this paper finds that monetary policy impacts the Australian equity market via the exchange rate, interest rate and bank loan channels of monetary policy, with only weak evidence of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. These channels are found to be operating irrespective of the trigger (monetary policy announcements or explanatory minutes releases), though results are somewhat weaker when examining the explanatory minutes releases. These results have important implications for central bank officials and financial market participants alike: by confirming a comparable avenue to affect monetary policy; and providing an explication of its impact on the Australian equity market.

Do the myths still exist? Revisiting people’s negative beliefs about organ donation upon death

The prevalence of myths preventing people partial to donation in Australia from consenting is unknown. Respondents (N = 468: 381 donors, 26 non-donors, 61 undecided) were surveyed about their (negative) donation beliefs. Approximately 30% of donors were neutral or supported negative beliefs about organ allocation, especially donation to undesirable organ recipients and a black market organ trade. Confusion about brain death, lack of family and religious support, and discomfort with donation were negative beliefs endorsed by some respondents irrespective of donor preference. Proportionally, donors had greater trust in hospitals/doctors than other groups. Some myths still exist but may vary with donation preference.

The impacts of FOREX fluctuations on construction business performance : an organisational capabilities perspective

Construction projects are a high risk business activity. When undertaking projects in an international context, it is further complicated by the risk of fluctuations in the foreign exchange rates (FOREX). Construction business performance is affected by these fluctuations. They affect progress and cause delays, which in turn create problems for subcontractors, namely cost overruns, disputes, arbitration, total abandonment and litigation. FOREX fluctuations also cause the price of raw materials to increase, leading the cost overruns. Managing FOREX risk is critical and past research have focused on the need for adequate insurance, careful planning and management, and foreign exchange futures hedging to overcome issues that have been caused by the FOREX risk. Analysis of FOREX risk in international construction business usually focused only on issues at the project level. There is currently lack of understanding of Organisational Capabilities (OC) to manage the impacts of FOREX risk, which when examined, are seen in isolation. This paper attempts to bridge the gap by discussing the impacts of FOREX fluctuations on the international construction business. The focus is on the OC perspective and the need to develop OC framework to mitigate the risk in sustaining construction business performance.

The shoe sellers of Karoussades

A short travel memoir about the village of Karoussades, Corfu. Early on my first day in the village, a message came that two respectable ladies of Karoussades, its shoe sellers, needed a section of wall lime-washed. They were willing to use the black market labour organized from the Pirate’s taverna, where I waited for my first job—but they did ask that he send someone polite...

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

This paper considers the transmission of volatility in global foreign exchange, equity and bond markets. Using a multivariate GARCH framework which includes measures of realised volatility as explanatory variables, significant volatility and news spillovers are found to occur on the same trading day between Japan, Europe, and the United States. All markets exhibit significant degrees of asymmetry in terms of the transmission of volatility associated with good and bad news. There are also strong links between diffusive volatilities in all three markets, whereas jumpactivity is only importantwithin the equitymarkets. The results of this paper deepen our understanding of how news and volatility are propagated through global financial markets.

Re-imagining China's future : soft power, cultural presence and the East Asian media market

As various contributors to this volume suggest, the term soft power is multifaceted. In 2002 Joseph Nye, the political scientist who coined the term more than a decade previously, noted that the soft power of a country rests on three resources: a country’s culture, its political values, and its foreign policies (Nye 2002). However, several factors can be drawn together to explain China’s adoption of this concept. First, China’s economic influence has precipitated a groundswell of nationalism, which reached its apex at the Opening Ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. This global media event provided an international platform to demonstrate China’s new found self-confidence. Second, cultural diplomacy and foreign aid, particularly through Third World channels is seen by the Chinese Communist Party leadership as an appropriate way to extend Chinese influence globally (Kurlantzick 2007). Third, education in Chinese culture through globally dispersed Confucius Institutes is charged with improving international understanding of Chinese culture and values, and in the process renovating negative images of China. Fourth, the influence of Japanese and Korean popular culture on China’s youth cultures in recent years has caused acute discomfit to cultural nationalists. Many contend it is time to stem the tide. Fifth, the past few years have witnessed a series of lively debates about the importance of industries such as design, advertising, animation and fashion, resulting in the construction of hundreds of creative clusters, animation centres, film backlots, cultural precincts, design centres and artist lofts.

Exchange relationships in building services maintenance activity : a test of transaction cost economics and the resource dependency view

The firm is faced with a decision concerning the nature of intra-organizational exchange relationships with internal human resources and the nature or inter-organizational exchange relationships with market firms. In both situations, the firm can develop an exchange that ranges from a discrete exchange to a relational exchange. Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and the Resource Dependency View (RDV) represent alternative efficiency-based explanations fo the nature of the exchange relationship. The aim of the paper is to test these two theories in respect of air conditioning maintenance in retail centres. Multiple sources of information are genereated from case studies of Australian retail centres to test these theories in respoect of internalized operations management (concerning strategic aspects of air conditioning maintenance) and externalized planned routine air conditioning maintenance. The analysis of the data centres on pattern matching. It is concluded that the data supports TCE - on the basis of a development in TCE's contractual schema. Further research is suggested towards taking a pluralistic stance and developing a combined efficiency and power hypothesis - upon which Williamson has speculated. For practice, the conclusions also offer a timely cautionary note concerning the adoption of one approach in all exchange relationships.