Using the evolution of consumer products to inform design

The development of a new consumer product and its release to market is typically an expensive and risky process. It is estimated that up to 80% of all new products fail in the marketplace (Savoia, 2014). The consequences of failure can be ruinous for a manufacturer both financially and in terms of brand reputation. So even small improvements in success prediction have the potential to save money, effort and brand reputation. This paper proposes an approach where the history and evolution of a product is mapped and analyzed. The results of the analysis can then be used to inform design decisions. This paper will also demonstrate the similarities between biological evolution and the evolution of consumer products. Using the existing structure and terminology of biological evolution allows us to focus on the aspects of innovations that have led to success and those that have led to failure. This paper uses the case study of the wristwatch and its development over 100 years. The analysis of this leads to recommendations for contemporary “smartwatches.”

Review ["Telling the Evolutionary Time : Molecular Clocks and the Fossil Record" edited by Philip C. J. Donoghue and M. Paul Smith]

Determining the temporal scale of biological evolution has traditionally been the preserve of paleontology, with the timing of species originations and major diversifications all being read from the fossil record. However, the ages of the earliest (correctly identified) records will underestimate actual origins due to the incomplete nature of the fossil record and the necessity for lineages to have evolved sufficiently divergent morphologies in order to be distinguished. The possibility of inferring divergence times more accurately has been promoted by the idea that the accumulation of genetic change between modern lineages can be used as a molecular clock (Zuckerkandl and Pauling, 1965). In practice, though, molecular dates have often been so old as to be incongruent even with liberal readings of the fossil record. Prominent examples include inferred diversifications of metazoan phyla hundreds of millions of years before their Cambrian fossil record appearances (e.g., Nei et al., 2001) and a basal split between modern birds (Neoaves) that is almost double the age of their earliest recognizable fossils (e.g., Cooper and Penny, 1997).

Branch-length estimation bias misleads molecular dating for a vertebrate mitochondrial phylogeny

Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.

Representations for evolutionary design modelling

This research looked at using the metaphor of biological evolution as a way of solving architectural design problems. Drawing from fields such as language grammars, algorithms and cellular biology, this thesis looked at ways of encoding design information for processing. The aim of this work is to help in the building of software that support the architectural design process and allow designers to examine more variations.

Generalising unitary time evolution

In this third Quantum Interaction (QI) meeting it is time to examine our failures. One of the weakest elements of QI as a field, arises in its continuing lack of models displaying proper evolutionary dynamics. This paper presents an overview of the modern generalised approach to the derivation of time evolution equations in physics, showing how the notion of symmetry is essential to the extraction of operators in quantum theory. The form that symmetry might take in non-physical models is explored, with a number of viable avenues identified.

Modelling of some biological materials using continuum mechanics

Continuum mechanics provides a mathematical framework for modelling the physical stresses experienced by a material. Recent studies show that physical stresses play an important role in a wide variety of biological processes, including dermal wound healing, soft tissue growth and morphogenesis. Thus, continuum mechanics is a useful mathematical tool for modelling a range of biological phenomena. Unfortunately, classical continuum mechanics is of limited use in biomechanical problems. As cells refashion the �bres that make up a soft tissue, they sometimes alter the tissue's fundamental mechanical structure. Advanced mathematical techniques are needed in order to accurately describe this sort of biological `plasticity'. A number of such techniques have been proposed by previous researchers. However, models that incorporate biological plasticity tend to be very complicated. Furthermore, these models are often di�cult to apply and/or interpret, making them of limited practical use. One alternative approach is to ignore biological plasticity and use classical continuum mechanics. For example, most mechanochemical models of dermal wound healing assume that the skin behaves as a linear viscoelastic solid. Our analysis indicates that this assumption leads to physically unrealistic results. In this thesis we present a novel and practical approach to modelling biological plasticity. Our principal aim is to combine the simplicity of classical linear models with the sophistication of plasticity theory. To achieve this, we perform a careful mathematical analysis of the concept of a `zero stress state'. This leads us to a formal de�nition of strain that is appropriate for materials that undergo internal remodelling. Next, we consider the evolution of the zero stress state over time. We develop a novel theory of `morphoelasticity' that can be used to describe how the zero stress state changes in response to growth and remodelling. Importantly, our work yields an intuitive and internally consistent way of modelling anisotropic growth. Furthermore, we are able to use our theory of morphoelasticity to develop evolution equations for elastic strain. We also present some applications of our theory. For example, we show that morphoelasticity can be used to obtain a constitutive law for a Maxwell viscoelastic uid that is valid at large deformation gradients. Similarly, we analyse a morphoelastic model of the stress-dependent growth of a tumour spheroid. This work leads to the prediction that a tumour spheroid will always be in a state of radial compression and circumferential tension. Finally, we conclude by presenting a novel mechanochemical model of dermal wound healing that takes into account the plasticity of the healing skin.

A Krylov-based finite state projection algorithm for solving the chemical master equation arising in the discrete modelling of biological systems

Biochemical reactions underlying genetic regulation are often modelled as a continuous-time, discrete-state, Markov process, and the evolution of the associated probability density is described by the so-called chemical master equation (CME). However the CME is typically difficult to solve, since the state-space involved can be very large or even countably infinite. Recently a finite state projection method (FSP) that truncates the state-space was suggested and shown to be effective in an example of a model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch. However in this example, both the model and the final time at which the solution was computed, were relatively small. Presented here is a Krylov FSP algorithm based on a combination of state-space truncation and inexact matrix-vector product routines. This allows larger-scale models to be studied and solutions for larger final times to be computed in a realistic execution time. Additionally the new method computes the solution at intermediate times at virtually no extra cost, since it is derived from Krylov-type methods for computing matrix exponentials. For the purpose of comparison the new algorithm is applied to the model of the Pap-pili epigenetic switch, where the original FSP was first demonstrated. Also the method is applied to a more sophisticated model of regulated transcription. Numerical results indicate that the new approach is significantly faster and extendable to larger biological models.

Iron biogeochemistry and associated greenhouse gas evolution in a forested subtropical Australian coastal catchment : Poona Creek, Southeast Queensland

Iron (Fe) is the fourth most abundant element in the Earth’s crust. Excess Fe mobilization from terrestrial into aquatic systems is of concern for deterioration of water quality via biofouling and nuisance algal blooms in coastal and marine systems. Substantial Fe dissolution and transport involve alternate Fe(II) oxidation followed by Fe(III) reduction, with a diversity of Bacteria and Archaea acting as the key catalyst. Microbially-mediated Fe cycling is of global significance with regard to cycles of carbon (C), sulfur (S) and manganese (Mn). However, knowledge regarding microbial Fe cycling in circumneutral-pH habitats that prevail on Earth has been lacking until recently. In particular, little is known regarding microbial function in Fe cycling and associated Fe mobilization and greenhouse (CO2 and CH4, GHG) evolution in subtropical Australian coastal systems where microbial response to ambient variations such as seasonal flooding and land use changes is of concern. Using the plantation-forested Poona Creek catchment on the Fraser Coast of Southeast Queensland (SEQ), this research aimed to 1) study Fe cycling-associated bacterial populations in diverse terrestrial and aquatic habitats of a representative subtropical coastal circumneutral-pH (4–7) ecosystem; and 2) assess potential impacts of Pinus plantation forestry practices on microbially-mediated Fe mobilization, organic C mineralization and associated GHG evolution in coastal SEQ. A combination of wet-chemical extraction, undisturbed core microcosm, laboratory bacterial cultivation, microscopy and 16S rRNA-based molecular phylogenetic techniques were employed. The study area consisted primarily of loamy sands, with low organic C and dissolved nutrients. Total reactive Fe was abundant and evenly distributed within soil 0–30 cm profiles. Organic complexation primarily controlled Fe bioavailability and forms in well-drained plantation soils and water-logged, native riparian soils, whereas tidal flushing exerted a strong “seawater effect” in estuarine locations and formed a large proportion of inorganic Fe(III) complexes. There was a lack of Fe(II) sources across the catchment terrestrial system. Mature, first-rotation plantation clear-felling and second-rotation replanting significantly decreased organic matter and poorly crystalline Fe in well-drained soils, although variations in labile soil organic C fractions (dissolved organic C, DOC; and microbial biomass C, MBC) were minor. Both well-drained plantation soils and water-logged, native-vegetation soils were inhabited by a variety of cultivable, chemotrophic bacterial populations capable of C, Fe, S and Mn metabolism via lithotrophic or heterotrophic, (micro)aerobic or anaerobic pathways. Neutrophilic Fe(III)-reducing bacteria (FeRB) were most abundant, followed by aerobic, heterotrophic bacteria (heterotrophic plate count, HPC). Despite an abundance of FeRB, cultivable Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria (FeOB) were absent in associated soils. A lack of links between cultivable Fe, S or Mn bacterial densities and relevant chemical measurements (except for HPC correlated with DOC) was likely due to complex biogeochemical interactions. Neither did variations in cultivable bacterial densities correlate with plantation forestry practices, despite total cultivable bacterial densities being significantly lower in estuarine soils when compared with well-drained plantation soils and water-logged, riparian native-vegetation soils. Given that bacterial Fe(III) reduction is the primary mechanism of Fe oxide dissolution in soils upon saturation, associated Fe mobilization involved several abiotic and biological processes. Abiotic oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) by Mn appeared to control Fe transport and inhibit Fe dissolution from mature, first-rotation plantation soils post-saturation. Such an effect was not observed in clear-felled and replanted soils associated with low SOM and potentially low Mn reactivity. Associated GHG evolution post-saturation mainly involved variable CO2 emissions, with low, but consistently increasing CH4 effluxes in mature, first-rotation plantation soil only. In comparison, water-logged soils in the riparian native-vegetation buffer zone functioned as an important GHG source, with high potentials for Fe mobilization and GHG, particularly CH4 emissions in riparian loam soils associated with high clay and crystalline Fe fractions. Active Fe–C cycling was unlikely to occur in lower-catchment estuarine soils associated with low cultivable bacterial densities and GHG effluxes. As a key component of bacterial Fe cycling, neutrophilic FeOB widely occurred in diverse aquatic, but not terrestrial, habitats of the catchment study area. Stalked and sheathed FeOB resembling Gallionella and Leptothrix were limited to microbial mat material deposited in surface fresh waters associated with a circumneutral-pH seep, and clay-rich soil within riparian buffer zones. Unicellular, Sideroxydans-related FeOB (96% sequence identity) were ubiquitous in surface and subsurface freshwater environments, with highest abundance in estuary-adjacent shallow coastal groundwater water associated with redox transition. The abundance of dissolved C and Fe in the groundwater-dependent system was associated with high numbers of cultivable anaerobic, heterotrophic FeRB, microaerophilic, putatively lithotrophic FeOB and aerobic, heterotrophic bacteria. This research represents the first study of microbial Fe cycling in diverse circumneutral-pH environments (terrestrial–aquatic, freshwater–estuarine, surface–subsurface) of a subtropical coastal ecosystem. It also represents the first study of its kind in the southern hemisphere. This work highlights the significance of bacterial Fe(III) reduction in terrestrial, and bacterial Fe(II) oxidation in aquatic catchment Fe cycling. Results indicate the risk of promotion of Fe mobilization due to plantation clear-felling and replanting, and GHG emissions associated with seasonal water-logging. Additional significant outcomes were also achieved. The first direct evidence for multiple biomineralization patterns of neutrophilic, microaerophilic, unicellular FeOB was presented. A putatively pure culture, which represents the first cultivable neutrophilic FeOB from the southern hemisphere, was obtained as representative FeOB ubiquitous in diverse catchment aquatic habitats.

Time-dependent rates of molecular evolution

For over half a century, it has been known that the rate of morphological evolution appears to vary with the time frame of measurement. Rates of microevolutionary change, measured between successive generations, were found to be far higher than rates of macroevolutionary change inferred from the fossil record. More recently, it has been suggested that rates of molecular evolution are also time dependent, with the estimated rate depending on the timescale of measurement. This followed surprising observations that estimates of mutation rates, obtained in studies of pedigrees and laboratory mutation-accumulation lines, exceeded long-term substitution rates by an order of magnitude or more. Although a range of studies have provided evidence for such a pattern, the hypothesis remains relatively contentious. Furthermore, there is ongoing discussion about the factors that can cause molecular rate estimates to be dependent on time. Here we present an overview of our current understanding of time-dependent rates. We provide a summary of the evidence for time-dependent rates in animals, bacteria and viruses. We review the various biological and methodological factors that can cause rates to be time dependent, including the effects of natural selection, calibration errors, model misspecification and other artefacts. We also describe the challenges in calibrating estimates of molecular rates, particularly on the intermediate timescales that are critical for an accurate characterization of time-dependent rates. This has important consequences for the use of molecular-clock methods to estimate timescales of recent evolutionary events.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

Microcosm study of ion mobilization and greenhouse gas evolution in soils of a plantation-forested subtropical coastal catchment

This study examined the potential for Fe mobilization and greenhouse gas (GHG, e.g. CO2, and CH4) evolution in SEQ soils associated with a range of plantation forestry practices and water-logged conditions. Intact, 30-cm-deep soil cores collected from representative sites were saturated and incubated for 35 days in the laboratory, with leachate and headspace gas samples periodically collected. Minimal Fe dissolution was observed in well-drained sand soils associated with mature, first-rotation Pinus and organic Fe complexation, whereas progressive Fe dissolution occurred over 14 days in clear-felled and replanted Pinus soils with low organic matter and non-crystalline Fe fractions. Both CO2 and CH4 effluxes were relatively lower in clear-felled and replanted soils compared with mature, first-rotation Pinus soils, despite the lack of statistically significant variations in total GHG effluxes associated with different forestry practices. Fe dissolution and GHG evolution in low-lying, water-logged soils adjacent to riparian and estuarine, native-vegetation buffer zones were impacted by mineral and physical soil properties. Highest levels of dissolved Fe and GHG effluxes resulted from saturation of riparian loam soils with high Fe and clay content, as well as abundant organic material and Fe-metabolizing bacteria. Results indicate Pinus forestry practices such as clear-felling and replanting may elevate Fe mobilization while decreasing CO2 and CH4 emissions from well-drained, SEQ plantation soils upon heavy flooding. Prolonged water-logging accelerates bacterially mediated Fe cycling in low-lying, clay-rich soils, leading to substantial Fe dissolution, organic matter mineralization, and CH4 production in riparian native-vegetation buffer zones.

Tracking the magmatic evolution of island arc volcanism : insights from a high-precision Pb isotope record of Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

The volcanic succession on Montserrat provides an opportunity to examine the magmatic evolution of island arc volcanism over a ∼2.5 Ma period, extending from the andesites of the Silver Hills center, to the currently active Soufrière Hills volcano (February 2010). Here we present high-precision double-spike Pb isotope data, combined with trace element and Sr-Nd isotope data throughout this period of Montserrat's volcanic evolution. We demonstrate that each volcanic center; South Soufrière Hills, Soufrière Hills, Centre Hills and Silver Hills, can be clearly discriminated using trace element and isotopic parameters. Variations in these parameters suggest there have been systematic and episodic changes in the subduction input. The SSH center, in particular, has a greater slab fluid signature, as indicated by low Ce/Pb, but less sediment addition than the other volcanic centers, which have higher Th/Ce. Pb isotope data from Montserrat fall along two trends, the Silver Hills, Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills lie on a general trend of the Lesser Antilles volcanics, whereas SSH volcanics define a separate trend. The Soufrière Hills and SSH volcanic centers were erupted at approximately the same time, but retain distinctive isotopic signatures, suggesting that the SSH magmas have a different source to the other volcanic centers. We hypothesize that this rapid magmatic source change is controlled by the regional transtensional regime, which allowed the SSH magma to be extracted from a shallower source. The Pb isotopes indicate an interplay between subduction derived components and a MORB-like mantle wedge influenced by a Galapagos plume-like source.

Insights into historical drainage evolution based on the phylogeography of the chevron snakehead fish (Channa striata) in the Mekong Basin

1. The phylogeography of freshwater taxa is often integrally linked with landscape changes such as drainage re-alignments that may present the only avenue for historical dispersal for these taxa. Classical models of gene flow do not account for landscape changes and so are of little use in predicting phylogeography in geologically young freshwater landscapes. When the history of drainage formation is unknown, phylogeographical predictions can be based on current freshwater landscape structure, proposed historical drainage geomorphology, or from phylogeographical patterns of co-distributed taxa. 2. This study describes the population structure of a sedentary freshwater fish, the chevron snakehead (Channa striata), across two river drainages on the Indochinese Peninsula. The phylogeographical pattern recovered for C. striata was tested against seven hypotheses based on contemporary landscape structure, proposed history and phylogeographical patterns of codistributed taxa. 3. Consistent with the species ecology, analysis of mitochondrial and microsatellite loci revealed very high differentiation among all sampled sites. A strong signature of historical population subdivision was also revealed within the contemporary Mekong River Basin (MRB). Of the seven phylogeographical hypotheses tested, patterns of co-distributed taxa proved to be the most adequate for describing the phylogeography of C. striata. 4. Results shed new light on SE Asian drainage evolution, indicating that the Middle MRB probably evolved via amalgamation of at least three historically independent drainage sections and in particular that the Mekong River section centred around the northern Khorat Plateau in NE Thailand was probably isolated from the greater Mekong for an extensive period of evolutionary time. In contrast, C. striata populations in the Lower MRB do not show a phylogeographical signature of evolution in historically isolated drainage lines, suggesting drainage amalgamation has been less important for river landscape formation in this region.

Adaptive evolution of color vision as seen through the eyes of butterflies

Butterflies and primates are interesting for comparative color vision studies, because both have evolved middle- (M) and long-wavelength- (L) sensitive photopigments with overlapping absorbance spectrum maxima (lambda(max) values). Although positive selection is important for the maintenance of spectral variation within the primate pigments, it remains an open question whether it contributes similarly to the diversification of butterfly pigments. To examine this issue, we performed epimicrospectrophotometry on the eyes of five Limenitis butterfly species and found a 31-nm range of variation in the lambda(max) values of the L-sensitive photopigments (514-545 nm). We cloned partial Limenitis L opsin gene sequences and found a significant excess of replacement substitutions relative to polymorphisms among species. Mapping of these L photopigment lambda(max) values onto a phylogeny revealed two instances within Lepidoptera of convergently evolved L photopigment lineages whose lambda(max) values were blue-shifted. A codon-based maximum-likelihood analysis indicated that, associated with the two blue spectral shifts, four amino acid sites (Ile17Met, Ala64Ser, Asn70Ser, and Ser137Ala) have evolved substitutions in parallel and exhibit significant d(N)/d(S) >1. Homology modeling of the full-length Limenitis arthemis astyanax L opsin placed all four substitutions within the chromophore-binding pocket. Strikingly, the Ser137Ala substitution is in the same position as a site that in primates is responsible for a 5- to 7-nm blue spectral shift. Our data show that some of the same amino acid sites are under positive selection in the photopigments of both butterflies and primates, spanning an evolutionary distance >500 million years.