Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Design of fixed order robust power oscillation damper for TCSC

This paper illustrates robust fixed order power oscillation damper design for mitigating power systems oscillations. From implementation and tuning point of view, such low and fixed structure is common practice for most practical applications, including power systems. However, conventional techniques of optimal and robust control theory cannot handle the constraint of fixed-order as it is, in general, impossible to ensure a target closed-loop transfer function by a controller of any given order. This paper deals with the problem of synthesizing or designing a feedback controller of dynamic order for a linear time-invariant plant for a fixed plant, as well as for an uncertain family of plants containing parameter uncertainty, so that stability, robust stability and robust performance are attained. The desired closed-loop specifications considered here are given in terms of a target performance vector representing a desired closed-loop design. The performance of the designed controller is validated through non-linear simulations for a range of contingencies.

A Fixed Order Model Matching Approach for the Design of Robust Power System Oscillation Damper

This book focuses on how evolutionary computing techniques benefit engineering research and development tasks by converting practical problems of growing complexities into simple formulations, thus largely reducing development efforts. This book begins with an overview of the optimization theory and modern evolutionary computing techniques, and goes on to cover specific applications of evolutionary computing to power system optimization and control problems.

Impacts of wind power integration on small signal stability and low frequency oscillation characteristics of interconnected power systems

为研究风电并网对互联系统低频振荡的影响,基于完整的双馈风电机组模型,定性分析了两区域互联系统在风电机组并网前后阻尼特性的变化情况.从双馈风电机组并网输送距离、并网容量、互联系统联络线传送功率、是否加装电力系统稳定器等多个方面,多角度分析了风电场并网对互联系统小干扰稳定及低频振荡特性的影响.之后,以两个包括两个区域的电力系统为例,进行了系统的计算分析和比较.结果表明,有双馈风电机组接入的互联电力系统,在不同运行模式下,双馈风电机组的并网输送距离、出力水平、联络线传送功率对低频振荡模式的影响在趋势和程度上均有显著差异,这样在对风电场进行入网规划、设计和运行时就需要综合考虑这些因素的影响.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

Nano-confined synthesis of fullerene mesoporous carbon (C60-FMC) with bimodal pores: XRD, TEM, structural properties, NMR, and protein immobilization

Nanoconfined synthesized crystalline fullerene mesoporous carbon (C60-FMC) with bimodal pore architectures of 4.95 nm and 10-15 nm pore sizes characterized by XRD, TEM, nitrogen adsorption/ desorption isotherm and solid-state NMR, and the material was used for protein immobilization. The solid-state 13C NMR spectrum of C60-FMC along with XRD, BET and TEM confirms the formation of fullerene mesoporous carbon structure C60-FMC. The immobilization of albumin (from bovine serum, BSA) protein biomolecule in a buffer solution at pH 4.7 was used to determine the adsorption properties of the C60-FMC material and its structural changes investigated by FT-IR. We demonstrated that the C60-FMC with high surface area and pore volumes have excellent adsorption capacity towards BSA protein molecule. Protein adsorption experiments clearly showed that the C60-FMC with bimodal pore architectures (4.95 nm and 10-15 nm) are suitable material to be used for protein adsorption

Designing for engagement : building IT systems

Context The School of Information Technology at QUT has recently undertaken a major restructuring of their Bachelor of Information Technology (BIT) course. Some of the aims of this restructuring include a reduction in first year attrition and to provide an attractive degree course that meets both student and industry expectations. Emphasis has been placed on the first semester in the context of retaining students by introducing a set of four units that complement one another and provide introductory material on technology, programming and related skills, and generic skills that will aid the students throughout their undergraduate course and in their careers. This discussion relates to one of these four fist semester units, namely Building IT Systems. The aim of this unit is to create small Information Technology (IT) systems that use programming or scripting, databases as either standalone applications or web applications. In the prior history of teaching introductory computer programming at QUT, programming has been taught as a stand alone subject and integration of computer applications with other systems such as databases and networks was not undertaken until students had been given a thorough grounding in those topics as well. Feedback has indicated that students do not believe that working with a database requires programming skills. In fact, the teaching of the building blocks of computer applications have been compartmentalized and taught in isolation from each other. The teaching of introductory computer programming has been an industry requirement of IT degree courses as many jobs require at least some knowledge of the topic. Yet, computer programming is not a skill that all students have equal capabilities of learning (Bruce et al., 2004) and this is clearly shown by the volume of publications dedicated to this topic in the literature over a broad period of time (Eckerdal & Berglund, 2005; Mayer, 1981; Winslow, 1996). The teaching of this introductory material has been done pretty much the same way over the past thirty years. During this period of time that introductory computer programming courses have been taught at QUT, a number of different programming languages and programming paradigms have been used and different approaches to teaching and learning have been attempted in an effort to find the golden thread that would allow students to learn this complex topic. Unfortunately, computer programming is not a skill that can be learnt in one semester. Some basics can be learnt but it can take many years to master (Norvig, 2001). Faculty data typically has shown a bimodal distribution of results for students undertaking introductory programming courses with a high proportion of students receiving a high mark and a high proportion of students receiving a low or failing mark. This indicates that there are students who understand and excel with the introductory material while there is another group who struggle to understand the concepts and practices required to be able to translate a specification or problem statement into a computer program that achieves what is being requested. The consequence of a large group of students failing the introductory programming course has been a high level of attrition amongst first year students. This attrition level does not provide good continuity in student numbers in later years of the degree program and the current approach is not seen as sustainable.

Required hours of practice for learner drivers : a comparison between two Australian jurisdictions

Problem: This study considers whether requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours while on a learner licence affects the amount of hours of supervised practice that they undertake. It compares the amount of practice that learners in Queensland and New South Wales report undertaking. At the time the study was conducted, learner drivers in New South Wales were required to complete 50 hours of supervised practice while those from Queensland were not. Method: Participants were approached outside driver licensing centres after they had just completed their practical driving test to obtain their provisional (intermediate) licence. Those agreeing to participate were interviewed over the phone later and asked a range of questions to obtain information including socio-demographic details and amount of supervised practice completed. Results: There was a significant difference in the amount of practice that learners reported undertaking. Participants from New South Wales reported completing a significantly greater amount of practice (M = 73.3 hours, sd = 29.12 hours) on their learner licence than those from Queensland (M = 64.1 hours, sd = 51.05 hours). However, the distribution of hours of practice among the Queensland participants was bimodal in nature. Participants from Queensland reported either completing much less or much more practice than the New South Wales average. Summary: While it appears that the requirement that learner drivers complete a set number of hours may increase the average amount of hours of practice obtained, it may also serve to discourage drivers from obtaining additional practice, over and above the required hours. Impact on Industry: The results of this study suggest that the implications of requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours of supervised practice are complex. In some cases, policy makers may inadvertently limit the amount of hours learners obtain to the mandated amount rather than encouraging them to obtain as much practice as possible.

A bidirectional two-leg resonant converter for high voltage pulsed power application

A high voltage pulsed power supply is proposed in this paper based on oscillation between an inductor and a capacitor in an LC circuit. A two-leg resonant circuit, supplied through an inverter with an alternative voltage waveform, can generate output voltage up to four times an input voltage magnitude. Bipolar and unipolar modulations are used in a single phase inverter to analyse their effects on the proposed resonant converter. Simulations have been carried out to evaluate the proposed topology and control.