Non-monotonic Reasoning and the Reversibility of Belief Change

Traditional approaches to nonmonotonic reasoning fail to satisfy a number of plausible axioms for belief revision and suffer from conceptual difficulties as well. Recent work on ranked preferential models (RPMs) promises to overcome some of these difficulties. Here we show that RPMs are not adequate to handle iterated belief change. Specifically, we show that RPMs do not always allow for the reversibility of belief change. This result indicates the need for numerical strengths of belief.

Remembering beliefs

Optimal decision-making requires us to accurately pinpoint the basis of our thoughts, e.g. whether they originate from our memory or our imagination. This paper argues that the phenomenal qualities of our subjective experience provide permissible evidence to revise beliefs, particularly as it pertains to memory. I look to the source monitoring literature to reconcile circumstances where mnemic beliefs and mnemic qualia conflict. By separating the experience of remembering from biological facts of memory, unusual cases make sense, such as memory qualia without memory (e.g. déjà vu, false memories) or a failure to have memory qualia with memory (e.g. functional amnesia, unintentional plagiarism). I argue that a pragmatic, probabilistic approach to belief revision is a way to rationally incorporate information from conscious experience, whilst acknowledging its inherent difficulties as an epistemic source. I conclude with a Bayesian defense of source monitoring based on C.I. Lewis’ coherence argument for memorial knowledge.

Revisiting logical imaging for information retrieval

Retrieval with Logical Imaging is derived from belief revision and provides a novel mechanism for estimating the relevance of a document through logical implication (i.e. P(q -> d)). In this poster, we perform the first comprehensive evaluation of Logical Imaging (LI) in Information Retrieval (IR) across several TREC test Collections. When compared against standard baseline models, we show that LI fails to improve performance. This failure can be attributed to a nuance within the model that means non-relevant documents are promoted in the ranking, while relevant documents are demoted. This is an important contribution because it not only contextualizes the effectiveness of LI, but crucially ex- plains why it fails. By addressing this nuance, future LI models could be significantly improved.

Expectations, obligations or promises? A conceptual review and revision of the beliefs comprising the psychological contract

The psychological contract is a frequently deployed construct to examine the dynamics of the employee-employer exchange relationship. While there is consensus that the contract comprises employee and employer beliefs regarding this relationship, the various belief types are not conceptually well-defined and understood. Over time, the contract has been conceptualised as comprising expectations, obligations, promises or some combination therein. While most contemporary researchers focus solely upon promises, the justifications for this position are unpersuasive. This paper theoretically describes the various belief types, identifies their interrelationships and proposes a reconceptualisation of the beliefs constituting the contract. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the extant promise-based belief framework provides too restrictive a theoretical base for a comprehensive understanding of individuals’ psychological contracts.

Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.