The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

Cross-Lingual knowledge discovery : Chinese-to-English article linking in Wikipedia

In this paper we examine automated Chinese to English link discovery in Wikipedia and the effects of Chinese segmentation and Chinese to English translation on the hyperlink recommendation. Our experimental results show that the implemented link discovery framework can effectively recommend Chinese-to-English cross-lingual links. The techniques described here can assist bi-lingual users where a particular topic is not covered in Chinese, is not equally covered in both languages, or is biased in one language; as well as for language learning.

A study of heuristic approach on station track allocation in mainline railways

Station track allocation is the critical component in the overall railway timetabling. Because of its intrinsic complexity and lack of modeling on station track layouts and train movement within station, analytical approach to attain optimal solution is not feasible. This study investigates the possibilities of applying a heuristic approach and identifies possible difficulties in practice. It is the first and important step to resolve one of the burning issues in the mainline railway operation in China.

Engaging social customers : influencing new marketing strategies for social media information sources

A global, online quantitative study among 300 consumers of digital technology products found the most reliable information sources were friends, family or word of mouth (WOM) from someone they knew, followed by expert product reviews, and product reviews written by other consumers. The most unreliable information sources were advertising or infomercials, automated recommendations based on purchasing patterns or retailers. While a very small number of consumers evaluated products online, rating of products and online discussions were more frequent activities. The most popular social media websites for reviews were Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and e-Bay, indicating the importance of WOM in social networks and online media spaces that feature product reviews as it is the most persuasive piece of information in both online and offline social networks. These results suggest that ‘social customers’ must be considered as an integral part of a marketing strategy.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Metabolic urinary profiling of alcohol hepatotoxicity and intervention effects of Yin Chen Hao Tang in rats using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry

This paper was designed to study metabonomic characters of the hepatotoxicity induced by alcohol and the intervention effects of Yin Chen Hao Tang (YCHT), a classic traditional Chinese medicine formula for treatment of jaundice and liver disorders in China. Urinary samples from control, alcohol- and YCHT-treated rats were analyzed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/ESI-QTOF-MS) in positive ionization mode. The total ion chromatograms obtained from the control, alcohol- and YCHT-treated rats were easily distinguishable using a multivariate statistical analysis method such as the principal components analysis (PCA). The greatest difference in metabolic profiling was observed from alcohol-treated rats compared with the control and YCHT-treated rats. The positive ions m/z 664.3126 (9.00 min) was elevated in urine of alcohol-treated rats, whereas, ions m/z 155.3547 (10.96 min) and 708.2932 (9.01 min) were at a lower concentration compared with that in urine of control rats, however, these ions did not indicate a statistical difference between control rats and YCHT-treated rats. The ion m/z 664.3126 was found to correspond to ceramide (d18:1/25:0), providing further support for an involvement of the sphingomyelin signaling pathway in alcohol hepatotoxicity and the intervention effects of YCHT.

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 - 2007 in Shandong province, China [山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B, mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 - 2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27.32 per 100 000 persons and a decreased trend for the 0-9 years old children. At the same time, the adjusted mortality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased trend and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17.55 /100 000 in 1990 to 4.01 /100 000 in 2007. The mortality of liver cancer was stable during this time (P = 0. 9998). Conclusion Immunization of hepatitis B vaccine may have lowered the incidence of hepatitis B in the target population and the overall mortality rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Abstract in Chinese 目的 了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考. 方法 根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析. 结果 1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437 094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势.乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万.肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.999 8). 结论 做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率.

Epidemiological Trend of Hepatitis B in Shandong Province of China, 1990 - 2007 []

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B from 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to find the high risk population so as to explore the further control strategy. Methods Based on the routine reporting incidence data of hepatitis B and demographic data of Shandong province, the incidence rates and sex - specific, age - specific incidence rates of hepatitis B were calculated and statistically analyzed in the simple linear regression model. Results The total number of hepatitis B was 437 094, the annual average morbidity was 27132 per 100 000 population during 1990 to 2007. The incidence of men (38142 per 100 000) was higher than that for women (15183 per 100 000) 1The annual incidence rate of hepatitis B indicated an increasing trend for the whole population, while a decreased trend for the 0～9 year - old children p resented in the past 18 years. It showed that the average age of onset moved to the older. Conclusion Young adult men are the high-risk groups for the onset of hepatitis B. For the prevention of hepatitis B, the immunization of hepatitis B vaccine should be enhanced for other groups, especially for the high - risk population on the basis of imp roving the immunization coverage rate for newborns.

Epidemiologic features of severe fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in China, 2011-2012

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging vector-borne disease, is caused by a novel bunyavirus belonging to the genus Phlebovirus [1, 2]. SFTS infections can be life-threatening and are characterized by sudden onset of fever, thrombocytopenia, gastrointestinal symptoms, and leukocytopenia. The tick Haemaphysalis longicornis is generally considered to be the vector of SFTS, which is widely distributed in China [2]. Person-to-person transmission through direct contact with contaminated blood has also been reported as a possible means of SFTS transmission [3–5]. Currently, there is no specific treatment other than supportive care [6]...

Cord blood vitamin D and neurocognitive development are nonlinearly related in toddlers

Background Little is known about the relation between vitamin D status in early life and neurodevelopment outcomes. Objective This study was designed to examine the association of cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] at birth with neurocognitive development in toddlers. Methods As part of the China-Anhui Birth Cohort Study, 363 mother-infant pairs with completed data were selected. Concentrations of 25(OH)D in cord blood were measured by radioimmunoassay. Mental development index (MDI) and psychomotor development index (PDI) in toddlers were assessed at age 16–18 mo by using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. The data on maternal sociodemographic characteristics and other confounding factors were also prospectively collected. Results Toddlers in the lowest quintile of cord blood 25(OH)D exhibited a deficit of 7.60 (95% CI: −12.4, −2.82; P = 0.002) and 8.04 (95% CI: −12.9, −3.11; P = 0.001) points in the MDI and PDI scores, respectively, compared with the reference category. Unexpectedly, toddlers in the highest quintile of cord blood 25(OH)D also had a significant deficit of 12.3 (95% CI: −17.9, −6.67; P < 0.001) points in PDI scores compared with the reference category. Conclusions This prospective study suggested that there was an inverted-U–shaped relation between neonatal vitamin D status and neurocognitive development in toddlers. Additional studies on the optimal 25(OH)D concentrations in early life are needed.

Building an evaluation instrument for China's hospital emergency preparedness: A systematic review of preparedness instruments

Objectives: The aim of this report is to identify from the literature common themes relating to the concept of hospital preparedness for emergencies to develop an agreed framework for evaluation. Method: A systematic literature search identified appropriate articles for critical appraisal. A meta-ethnography approach was used to synthesize the findings, using both reciprocal translation and line-of-argument synthesis. Results: From an initial 2162 articles, we identified 13 articles that specifically addressed the aims of this review and formed the basis of the intended analysis. Conclusion: Hospital emergency preparedness is essential for effective disaster relief. Developing a systematic and structured methodology is necessary to assess hospital preparedness. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness: 2014:0:1-9)