Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Development of an online condition monitoring system for slow speed machinery

One of the main challenges of slow speed machinery condition monitoring is that the energy generated from an incipient defect is too weak to be detected by traditional vibration measurements due to its low impact energy. Acoustic emission (AE) measurement is an alternative for this as it has the ability to detect crack initiations or rubbing between moving surfaces. However, AE measurement requires high sampling frequency and consequently huge amount of data are obtained to be processed. It also requires expensive hardware to capture those data, storage and involves signal processing techniques to retrieve valuable information on the state of the machine. AE signal has been utilised for early detection of defects in bearings and gears. This paper presents an online condition monitoring (CM) system for slow speed machinery, which attempts to overcome those challenges. The system incorporates relevant signal processing techniques for slow speed CM which include noise removal techniques to enhance the signal-to-noise and peak-holding down sampling to reduce the burden of massive data handling. The analysis software works under Labview environment, which enables online remote control of data acquisition, real-time analysis, offline analysis and diagnostic trending. The system has been fully implemented on a site machine and contributing significantly to improve the maintenance efficiency and provide a safer and reliable operation.

Dynamic effects of electrical pitting in steam-turbine tilting-pad thrust-bearings

This paper merges the analysis of a case history and the simplified theoretical model related to a rather singular phenomenon that may happen in rotating machinery. Starting from the first, a small industrial steam turbine experienced a very strange behavior during megawatt load. When the unit was approaching the maximum allowed power, the temperature of the babbitt metal of the pads of the thrust bearing showed constant increase with an unrecoverable drift. Bearing inspection showed that pad trailing edge had the typical aspect of electrical pitting. This kind of damage was not reparable and bearing pads had to replaced. This problem occurred several times in sequence and was solved only by adding further ground brushes to the shaft-line. Failure analysis indicated electrodischarge machining as the root fault. A specific model, able to take into consideration the effect of electrical pitting and loading capacity decreasing as a consequence of the damage of the babbitt metal, is proposed in the paper and shows that the phenomenon causes the irretrievable failure of the thrust bearing.

Signal Processing Diagnostic Tool for Rolling Element Bearings Using EMD and MED

The signal processing techniques developed for the diagnostics of mechanical components operating in stationary conditions are often not applicable or are affected by a loss of effectiveness when applied to signals measured in transient conditions. In this chapter, an original signal processing tool is developed exploiting some data-adaptive techniques such as Empirical Mode Decomposition, Minimum Entropy Deconvolution and the analytical approach of the Hilbert transform. The tool has been developed to detect localized faults on bearings of traction systems of high speed trains and it is more effective to detect a fault in non-stationary conditions than signal processing tools based on envelope analysis or spectral kurtosis, which represent until now the landmark for bearings diagnostics.

Diagnostic of Rolling Element Bearings with Envelope Analysis in Non-Stationary Conditions

In the field of rolling element bearing diagnostics, envelope analysis has gained in the last years a leading role among the different digital signal processing techniques. The original constraint of constant operating speed has been relaxed thanks to the combination of this technique with the computed order tracking, able to resample signals at constant angular increments. In this way, the field of application of this technique has been extended to cases in which small speed fluctuations occur, maintaining high effectiveness and efficiency. In order to make this algorithm suitable to all industrial applications, the constraint on speed has to be removed completely. In fact, in many applications, the coincidence of high bearing loads, and therefore high diagnostic capability, with acceleration-deceleration phases represents a further incentive in this direction. This chapter presents a procedure for the application of envelope analysis to speed transients. The effect of load variation on the proposed technique will be also qualitatively addressed.