73 resultados para Bayes rule

em Queensland University of Technology - ePrints Archive


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In large sedimentary basins with layers of different rocks, the groundwater flow between aquifers depends on the hydraulic conductivity (K) of the separating low-permeable rocks, or aquitards. Three methods were developed to evaluate K in aquitards for areas with limited field data: • Coherence and harmonic analysis: estimates the regional-scale K based on water-level fluctuations in adjacent aquifers. • Cokriging and Bayes' rule: infers K from downhole geophysical logs. • Fluvial process model: reproduces the lithology architecture of sediment formations which can be converted to K. These proposed methods enable good estimates of K and better planning of further drillholes.

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Young children engage in a constant process of negotiating and constructing rules, utilizing these rules as cultural resources to manage their social interactions. This paper examines how young children make sense of, and also construct, rules within one early childhood classroom. This paper draws on a recent study conducted in Australia, in which video-recorded episodes of young children’s talk-in-interaction were examined. Analysis revealed four interactional practices that the children used, including manipulating materials and places to claim ownership of resources within the play space; developing or using pre-existing rules and social orders to control the interactions of their peers; strategically using language to regulate the actions of those around them; and creating and using membership categories such as ‘car owner’ or ‘team member’ to include or exclude others and also to control and participate in the unfolding interaction. While the classroom setting was framed within adult conceptions and regulations, analysis of the children’s interaction demonstrated their co-constructions of social order and imposition of their own forms of rules. Young children negotiated both adult constructed social order and also their own peer constructed social order, drawing upon various rules within both social orders as cultural resources by which they managed their interaction.

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This book analyses and refines the arguments for and against retrospective rule making, concluding that there is one really strong argument against it: the expectation that, if an individual's actions are considered by a future court, the legal consequences of that action will be determined by the law that was discoverable at the time the action was performed. This argument, which goes to the heart of the rule of law, is generally determinative. However, in some cases the argument does not run and this book suggests that, in some areas of law, reliance should be actively discouraged by prospective warnings that the law is subject to change.

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The effective management of bridge stock involves making decisions as to when to repair, remedy, or do nothing, taking into account the financial and service life implications. Such decisions require a reliable diagnosis as to the cause of distress and an understanding of the likely future degradation. Such diagnoses are based on a combination of visual inspections, laboratory tests on samples and expert opinions. In addition, the choice of appropriate laboratory tests requires an understanding of the degradation mechanisms involved. Under these circumstances, the use of expert systems or evaluation tools developed from “realtime” case studies provides a promising solution in the absence of expert knowledge. This paper addresses the issues in bridge infrastructure management in Queensland, Australia. Bridges affected by alkali silica reaction and chloride induced corrosion have been investigated and the results presented using a mind mapping tool. The analysis highights that several levels of rules are required to assess the mechanism causing distress. The systematic development of a rule based approach is presented. An example of this application to a case study bridge has been used to demonstrate that preliminary results are satisfactory.

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One of the key issues facing public asset owners is the decision of refurbishing aged built assets. This decision requires an assessment of the “remaining service life” of the key components in a building. The remaining service life is significantly dependent upon the existing condition of the asset and future degradation patterns considering durability and functional obsolescence. Recently developed methods on Residual Service Life modelling, require sophisticated data that are not readily available. Most of the data available are in the form of reports prior to undertaking major repairs or in the form of sessional audit reports. Valuable information from these available sources can serve as bench marks for estimating the reference service life. The authors have acquired similar informations from a public asset building in Melbourne. Using these informations, the residual service life of a case study building façade has been estimated in this paper based on state-of-the-art approaches. These estimations have been evaluated against expert opinion. Though the results are encouraging it is clear that the state-of-the-art methodologies can only provide meaningful estimates provided the level and quality of data are available. This investigation resulted in the development of a new framework for maintenance that integrates the condition assessment procedures and factors influencing residual service life

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Theories on teaching and learning for adult learners are constantly being reviewed and discussed in the higher educational environment. Theories are not static and appear to be in a constant developmental process. This paper discusses three of these theories: pedagogy, andragogy and heutagogy. It is argued that although educators engage in many of the principles of either student-centered (andragogy) and self-determined (heutagogy) learning, it is not possible to fully implement either theory. The two main limitations are the requirements of both internal and external stakeholders, such as accrediting bodies and requirements to assess all student learning. A reversion to teacher-centered learning (pedagogy) ensues. In summary, we engage in many action-oriented learning activities but revert to teacher-centered approaches in terms of content and assessment.

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When communicating emotion in music, composers and performers encode their expressive intentions through the control of basic musical features such as: pitch, loudness, timbre, mode, and articulation. The extent to which emotion can be controlled through the systematic manipulation of these features has not been fully examined. In this paper we present CMERS, a Computational Music Emotion Rule System for the control of perceived musical emotion that modifies features at the levels of score and performance in real-time. CMERS performance was evaluated in two rounds of perceptual testing. In experiment I, 20 participants continuously rated the perceived emotion of 15 music samples generated by CMERS. Three music works, each with five emotional variations were used (normal, happy, sad, angry, and tender). The intended emotion by CMERS was correctly identified 78% of the time, with significant shifts in valence and arousal also recorded, regardless of the works’ original emotion.

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This paper proposes the use of the Bayes Factor to replace the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) as a criterion for speaker clustering within a speaker diarization system. The BIC is one of the most popular decision criteria used in speaker diarization systems today. However, it will be shown in this paper that the BIC is only an approximation to the Bayes factor of marginal likelihoods of the data given each hypothesis. This paper uses the Bayes factor directly as a decision criterion for speaker clustering, thus removing the error introduced by the BIC approximation. Results obtained on the 2002 Rich Transcription (RT-02) Evaluation dataset show an improved clustering performance, leading to a 14.7% relative improvement in the overall Diarization Error Rate (DER) compared to the baseline system.