Important omitted spatial variables in safety models: Understanding contributing crash causes at intersections

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causation—rests upon the pursuit of numerous lines of inquiry. The research community has focused on analytical methods development (negative binomial specifications, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might think of different lines of inquiry in terms of ‘low lying fruit’—areas of inquiry that might provide significant improvements in understanding crash causation. It is the contention of this research that omitted variable bias caused by the exclusion of important variables is an important line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant ability to better understand contributing factors to crashes. This study—believed to represent a unique contribution to the safety literature—develops and examines the role of a sizeable set of spatial variables in intersection crash occurrence. In addition to commonly considered traffic and geometric variables, examined spatial factors include local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools. The results indicate that inclusion of these factors results in significant improvement in model explanatory power, and the results also generally agree with expectation. The research illuminates the importance of spatial variables in safety research and also the negative consequences of their omissions.

On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Investigating pedestrian injury crashes on modern roundabouts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Pedestrian crashes are one of the major road safety problems in developing countries representing about 40% of total fatal crashes in low income countries. Despite the fact that many pedestrian crashes in these countries occur at unsignalized intersections such as roundabouts, studies focussing on this issue are limited—thus representing a critical research gap. The objective of this study is to develop safety performance functions for pedestrian crashes at modern roundabouts to identify significant roadway geometric, traffic and land use characteristics related to pedestrian safety. To establish the relationship between pedestrian crashes and various causal factors, detailed data including various forms of exposure, geometric and traffic characteristics, and spatial factors such as proximity to schools and proximity to drinking establishments were collected from a sample of 22 modern roundabouts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, representing about 56% of such roundabouts in Addis Ababa. To account for spatial correlation resulting from multiple observations at a roundabout, both the random effect Poisson (REP) and random effect Negative Binomial (RENB) regression models were estimated and compared. Model goodness of fit statistics reveal a marginally superior fit of the REP model compared to the RENB model of pedestrian crashes at roundabouts. Pedestrian crossing volume and the product of traffic volumes along major and minor road had significant and positive associations with pedestrian crashes at roundabouts. The presence of a public transport (bus/taxi) terminal beside a roundabout is associated with increased pedestrian crashes. While the maximum gradient of an approach road is negatively associated with pedestrian safety, the provision of a raised median along an approach appears to increase pedestrian safety at roundabouts. Remedial measures are identified for combating pedestrian safety problems at roundabouts in the context of a developing country.

An investigation of cross-cultural differences in binge-drinking perceptions and behaviours

This paper examines the variance in binge-drinking attitudes and behaviours between university student cohorts from Western and Eastern countries who reside in Australia. In particular, we investigate the impact of social influence on these consumer responses. An online survey resulted in 190 useable responses from university students at three different Australian universities. The results show that students from Western countries consume alcohol at higher levels and demonstrate more ‘approach’ behaviours towards binge-drinking, whereas students from Eastern countries demonstrate more ‘avoid’ behaviours. Social distancing from drunk or story-telling people is evident as students from Eastern countries while students from Western countries were more likely to indulge in story-telling and either ignored or encouraged surrounding people who were drunk.

Innovative approaches to intervention for problem drinking

Purpose of review: To critique the recent literature on telephone, correspondence-based, and computerized interventions for alcohol problems, which enhance or substitute for practitioner-delivered treatments. Recent findings: There is an unmet need for screening, assessment and intervention for alcohol problems, in part because of the difficulty in accessing such treatment within the current health care system. Research on the efficacy of correspondence or electronic (for example Internet-based) interventions is beginning to emerge. In the period 2003–2004 we identified nine acceptability or feasibility studies of these approaches and seven efficacy trials covering a wide range of settings. These modes of intervention are acceptable to patients and the public, and with careful planning, can be implemented in a variety of settings. Treatment trials demonstrate the efficacy of these interventions in reducing hazardous drinking by university students, in delaying initiation of heavy drinking in children and adolescents, and, intriguingly, in addressing insomnia among recovering alcoholics. Summary: There is strong support among potential users for alcohol interventions that employ telephone assistance, written correspondence, and the Internet. These new technologies offer the prospect of increasing the reach of interventions for problem drinking and being cost- effective alternatives or supplements to face-to-face health service delivery.

Development of a controlled drinking self-efficacy scale and appraising its relation to alcohol dependence

There is no specific self-efficacy measure that has been developed primarily for problem drinkers seeking a moderation drinking goal. In this article, we report the factor structure of a 20-item Controlled Drinking Self-Efficacy Scale (CDSES; Sitharthan et al., 1996; Sitharthan et al., 1997). The results indicate that the CDSES is highly reliable, and the factor analysis using the full sample identified four factors: negative affect, positive mood/social context, frequency of drinking, and consumption quantity. A similar factor structure was obtained for the subsample of men. In contrast, only three factors emerged in the analysis of data on female participants. Compared to women, men had low self-efficacy to control their drinking in situations relating to positive mood/social context, and subjects with high alcohol dependence had low self-efficacy for situations relating to negative affect, social situations, and drinking less frequently. The CDSES can be a useful measure in treatment programs providing a moderation drinking goal.

Moderating drinking by correspondence : an evaluation of a new method of intervention

Recognizing the need to offer alternative methods of brief interventions, this study developed correspondence treatments for low-dependent problem drinkers and evaluated their impact. One hundred and twenty-one problem drinkers were recruited by media advertisements and were randomly allocated to a full cognitive behavioural treatment programme (CBT) or to a minimal intervention condition (MI) that gave information regarding alcohol misuse and instructions to record drinking. As predicted, CBT was more effective than MI in reducing alcohol consumption over the 4-month controlled trial period. CBT produced a 50% fall in consumption, bringing the average intake of subjects within recommended maximum levels. Treatment gains at 6 months were well maintained to 12 months. High levels of consumer satisfaction, a high representation of women and a substantial participation from isolated rural areas attested to the feasibility of the correspondence programme as an alternative treatment. However, some drinking occasions still involved high intake for a significant subgroup of subjects, and this issue will be addressed in future programmes. The results supported the use of correspondence delivery as a means of promoting early engagement and equity of access between city and country areas.

Imagery and strength of craving for eating, drinking and playing sport

The elaborated intrusion (EI) theory of desire (Kavanagh, Andrade, & May, 2005) attributes the motivational force of cravings to cognitive elaboration, including imagery, of apparently spontaneous thoughts that intrude into awareness. We report a questionnaire study in which respondents rated a craving for food or drink. Questionnaire items derived from EI theory formed a single factor alongside factors for anticipated reward/relief, resistance, and opportunity. In a multiple regression predicting strength of craving, the first three factors accounted for 36% of the variance. Opportunity did not enter the model. In a second study, the difference between individuals' strong and weak cravings to take part in a sporting activity was shown to be related to visual, auditory, and general imagery, and to anticipated reward or relief from engaging in the activity. Implications for treatment of craving-related disorders are discussed in the light of these results and of other research indicating that interference with imagery can reduce the strength of craving.

Comparison of methods for processing drinking water samples for the isolation of Myocbacterium avium and intracellulare

Several protocols for isolation of mycobacteria from water exist, but there is no established standard method. This study compared methods of processing potable water samples for the isolation of Mycobacterium avium and Mycobacterium intracellulare using spiked sterilized water and tap water decontaminated using 0.005% cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC). Samples were concentrated by centrifugation or filtration and inoculated onto Middlebrook 7H10 and 7H11 plates and Lowenstein-Jensen slants and into mycobacterial growth indicator tubes with or without polymyxin, azlocillin, nalidixic acid, trimethoprim, and amphotericin B. The solid media were incubated at 32°C, at 35°C, and at 35°C with CO2 and read weekly. The results suggest that filtration of water for the isolation of mycobacteria is a more sensitive method for concentration than centrifugation. The addition of sodium thiosulfate may not be necessary and may reduce the yield. Middlebrook M7H10 and 7H11 were equally sensitive culture media. CPC decontamination, while effective for reducing growth of contaminants, also significantly reduces mycobacterial numbers. There was no difference at 3 weeks between the different incubation temperatures.

Role of self-efficacy in predicting outcomes from a programme for controlled drinking

Predicted the outcomes of 40 men and 20 women who attended a controlled drinking program in a general hospital. Measures included a behavioral interview, the Alcohol Dependence Scale (ADS), the Severity of Alcohol Dependence Questionnaire (SADQ) described by T. Stockwell et al (1979), and a problem drinking self-efficacy scale (PDSES). Substantial reductions in drinking appeared after the program and appeared to be sustained over a 6-mo follow-up. Intake dropped from 11.3 drinks per day to 2.2 drinks during follow-up. Drinking history and alcohol dependence (as measured by the SADQ, but not the ADS) were significant predictors of alcohol consumption during follow-up. Predictive utility of the PDSES was confirmed. PDSES administered at the end of the program significantly predicted alcohol consumption over the next 6 mo.

Post-colonial law : legal establishments from past empires are illegitimate

The extant literature covering the plights of indigenous people resident to the African continent consistently targets colonial law as an obstacle to the recognition of indigenous rights. Whereas colonial law is argued to be archaic and in need of review, which it is, this article argues the new perspective that colonial law is illegitimate for ordering the population it presides over – specifically in Africa. It is seen, in five case studies, that post-colonial legal structures have not considered the legitimacy of colonial law and have rather modified a variety of statutes as country contexts dictated. However, the modified statutes are based on an alien theoretical legality, something laden with connotations that hark to older and backward times. It is ultimately argued that the legal structures which underpin ex-colonies in Africa need considerable revision so as to base statutes on African theoretical legality, rather than imperialistic European ones, so as to maximise the law’s legitimacy.

Validation of the Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire - Revised in an Adolescent Sample (DRSEQ-RA)

Adolescent drinking is a significant issue yet valid psychometric tools designed for this group are scarce. The Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire—Revised Adolescent Version (DRSEQ-RA) is designed to assess an individual's belief in their ability to resist drinking alcohol. The original DRSEQ-R consists of three factors reflecting social pressure refusal self-efficacy, opportunistic refusal self-efficacy and emotional relief refusal self-efficacy. A large sample of 2020 adolescents aged between 12 and 19 years completed the DRSEQ and measures of alcohol consumption in small groups. Using confirmatory factor analysis, the three factor structure was confirmed. All three factors were negatively correlated with both frequency and volume of alcohol consumption. Drinkers reported lower drinking refusal self-efficacy than non-drinkers. Taken together, these results suggest that the adolescent version of the Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (DRSEQ-RA) is a reliable and valid measure of drinking refusal self-efficacy.

The Validity of the Brief Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (bMAST) as a Problem Drinking Severity Measure

Objective: The Brief Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (bMAST) is a 10-item test derived from the 25-item Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (MAST). It is widely used in the assessment of alcohol dependence. In the absence of previous validation studies, the principal aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of the bMAST as a measure of the severity of problem drinking. Method: There were 6,594 patients (4,854 men, 1,740 women) who had been referred for alcohol-use disorders to a hospital alcohol and drug service who voluntarily participated in this study. Results: An exploratory factor analysis defined a two-factor solution, consisting of Perception of Current Drinking and Drinking Consequences factors. Structural equation modeling confirmed that the fit of a nine-item, two-factor model was superior to the original one-factor model. Concurrent validity was assessed through simultaneous administration of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and associations with alcohol consumption and clinically assessed features of alcohol dependence. The two-factor bMAST model showed moderate correlations with the AUDIT. The two-factor bMAST and AUDIT were similarly associated with quantity of alcohol consumption and clinically assessed dependence severity features. No differences were observed between the existing weighted scoring system and the proposed simple scoring system. Conclusions: In this study, both the existing bMAST total score and the two-factor model identified were as effective as the AUDIT in assessing problem drinking severity. There are additional advantages of employing the two-factor bMAST in the assessment and treatment planning of patients seeking treatment for alcohol-use disorders. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs 68: 771-779,2007)