A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Vitamin D and sun protection : the impact of mixed public health messages in Australia

Exposure of the skin to sunlight can cause skin cancer and is also necessary for cutaneous vitamin D production. Media reports have highlighted the purported health benefits of vitamin D. Our aim was to examine attitudes and behaviours related to sun protection and vitamin D. A cross-sectional study of 2,001 residents in Queensland, Australia aged 20-70 years was undertaken. Information collected included: skin cancer risk factors; perceptions about levels of sun exposure required to maintain vitamin D; belief that sun protection increases risk of vitamin D deficiency; intention, and actual change in sun protection practices for adults and children. Multivariate models examined predictors of attitudinal and behavioural change. One-third (32%) believed a fair-skinned adult, and 31% thought a child required at least 30 minutes per day in summer sun to maintain vitamin D levels. Reductions in sun protection were reported by 21% of adults and 14% of children. Factors associated with belief that sun protection may result in not obtaining enough vitamin D included aged ≥ 60 years (OR=1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66) and having skin that tanned easily (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.38-2.78). Participants from low income households, and those who frequently used sun protective clothing were more likely to have reduced sun protection practices (OR=1.33, 95% CI 1.10-1.73 and OR=1.73, 95% CI 1.36-2.20, respectively). This study provides evidence of reductions in sun protection practices in a population living in a high UV environment. There is an urgent need to re-focus messages regarding sun exposure and for continued sun protection practices.

Children’s theatre in Oman 1970- 2007: towards a developed theatre

Children’s theatre exists along with other theatrical forms in the cultural life of the Sultanate of Oman. Despite the fact that Omani Children’s Theatre started its life at the beginning of the 1970s, many challenges and obstacles continue to face its ongoing development. A significant landmark in this development was the first Omani Children's Theatre Festival which took place in 2007, thirty-five years after the first Omani children’s play was produced in 1972. This festival represents a new era in the history of Omani theatre in general and the history of children’s theatre in particular. This study investigates how Children’s Theatre in the Sultanate of Oman can become a viable and valued form of art for the future. It outlines the historical background and the present situation of Omani children’s theatre and, through discussions with interviewees, defines the obstacles it presently faces and suggests ways to overcome them. The study provides a clear vision for a strong children’s theatre culture in Oman and outlines recommendations for achieving this vision. Presently, there is little written documentation about children’s theatre in Oman. This study provides the first comprehensive historical overview.

Michael Winterbottom

Considered either individually or as a body of work, the films of British director Michael Winterbottom pose a range of challenges to audiences Covering a vast range of genres, themes and issue, and often explicitly political, confronting or estranging, these films never allow a viewer to be passive.

Book review: "Qualitative Health Psychology. Theories and Methods" Michael Murray and Kerry Chamberlain (Eds.)

Qualitative Health Psychology aims to contribute to the debate about the nature of psychology and of science through ‘an examination of the role of qualitative research within health psychology’ (p. 3). The editors, in bringing together contributors from the UK, Ireland, Canada, Brazil, New Zealand and Australia, have compiled a text that reflects different uses of qualitative health research in diverse social and cultural contexts. Structured into three parts, the book encompasses key theoretical and methodological issues in qualitative research in its attempt to encourage broad epistemological debate within health psychology.

Analysing the Sri Lankan conflict using Michael Mann's four-dimensional model of social power

This thesis provides an overview of the Sri Lankan civil war with a view to identifying some of the factors that contributed to the dispute between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. It adopts a multi-causal explanation of the conflict by reference to the theories of social power developed by Michael Mann. The conflict has been variously described as an ethnic or political conflict, or has been characterised as a determined by a number of interacting factors (including colonialism, ethnicity, religion, economy, politics and globalisation). Mann’s four-dimensional model of social power is deployed to analyse the causal relationships, together with their inter-connections, which clarify the origins of the dispute. It argues that Mann’s theoretical framework helps to highlight some of the interconnected elements that contributed to the conflict.

Changes of mortality and causes of death from 1970 to 2005 and decomposition analysis in Shandong province [山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率极死因变化与差别分解分析]

Objective To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005,and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors. Methods Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s,but had increased since 1990s.However,both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group Ⅰ diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs)including cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group Ⅰ disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole. Demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors. Conclusion Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group Ⅰ diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Postmodern Theory and the Choreography of Michael Clark

This study addresses two interrelated questions: Can postmodern ‘theory’ illuminate an understanding of Michael Clark’s work? and, a sub-question, In which ways, if at all, does Clark’s work demonstrate a postmodern sensibility? Chapter one, the introduction to this study, provides a ‘portrait’ of postmodernism, that is, it addresses the question What is postmodernism? Chapter two is a biography of Michael Clark. The seminal sections to this study, however, are chapters three and four. Here the author blends a discussion of a) subject matter, treatment and meanings in Clark’s choreography, b) journalistic criticisms of those features of his work, and c) postmodern theory. The outcome of these chapters is to demonstrate that Clark’s works do indeed require re-interpretation and re-evaluation, and to illustrate how these factors might be achieved.

Beyond the Producer/Consumer Divide : Key Principles of Produsage and Opportunities for Innovation

Though popular, concepts such as Toffler's 'prosumer' (1970; 1980; 1990) are inherently limited in their ability to accurately describe the makeup and dynamics of current co-creative environments, from fundamentally non-profit initiatives like the Wikipedia to user-industry partnerships that engage in crowdsourcing and the development of collective intelligence. Instead, the success or failure of such projects can be understood best if the traditional producer/consumer divide is dissolved, allowing for the emergence of the produser (Bruns, 2008). A close investigation of leading spaces for produsage makes it possible to extract the key principles which underpin and guide such content co-creation, and to identify how innovative pro-am partnerships between commercial entities and user communities might be structured in order to maximise the benefits that both sides will be able to draw from such collaboration. This chapter will outline these principles, and point to successes and failures in applying them to pro- am initiatives.

Michael Kirby's challenge: Intellectual property, HIV/AIDS, and human rights

In July 2014, Melbourne hosted the 20th International AIDS Conference. The event opened, paying tribute to the late Dutch HIV/AIDS researcher Professor Joep Lange, with his image projected onto a screen, with the accompanying quotation: ‘If we can bring a bottle of Coke to every corner of Africa, we should be able to also deliver antiretroviral drugs.’

Promoting diet and physical activity in nurses: A systematic review

Objective: To systematically review the effectiveness of intervention studies promoting diet and physical activity (PA) in nurses. Data Source: English language manuscripts published between 1970 and 2014 in PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, and EMBASE, as well as those accessed with the PICO tool, were reviewed. Study Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria: Inclusion criteria comprised (1) nurses/student nurses working in a health care setting and (2) interventions where PA and/or diet behaviors were the primary outcome. Exclusion criteria were (1) non–peer-reviewed articles or conference abstracts and (2) interventions focused on treatment of chronic conditions or lifestyle factors other than PA or diet in nurses. Data Extraction: Seventy-one full texts were retrieved and assessed for inclusion by two reviewers. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked for accuracy by a second reviewer. Data Synthesis: Extracted data were synthesized in a tabular format and narrative summary. Results: Nine (n = 737 nurses) studies met the inclusion criteria. Quality of the studies was low to moderate. Four studies reported an increase in self-reported PA through structured exercise and goal setting. Dietary outcomes were generally positive, but were only measured in three studies with some limitations in the assessment methods. Two studies reported improved body composition without significant changes in diet or PA. Conclusions: Outcomes of interventions to change nurses' PA and diet behavior are promising, but inconsistent. Additional and higher quality interventions that include objective and validated outcome measures and appropriate process evaluation are required.