Re-framing infrastructure investment decision-making processes : a preliminary scoping study for urban flood risk management in Jakarta, Indonesia

Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.

Sustainability in infrastructure investment : building the business case

Many infrastructure agencies adopt sustainability objectives at a corporate level and incorporate sustainability targets and indicators as part of corporate reporting processes. These objectives are expected to translate to all stages of the project delivery process, including project selection. For infrastructure capital works projects and programs, a robust project management approach involves the development of a business case to guide investment decision making. A key tool in the assessment of project options and selection of a delivery strategy is Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). Infrastructure providers are required to undertake cost benefit analysis to support project selection through regulatory approval and budgetary processes. This tool has emerged through the prism of economic analysis rather than sustainability. A literature review reveals the limitations of CBA alone to effectively evaluate economic, environmental and social externalities or impacts that apply over a long time frame, and that are ultimately irreversible. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) has been introduced as a means to incorporate a wider array of factors into decision making such as sustainability. This, however, presents new challenges with issues around how to transparently represent wider community values in the selection of a preferred solution. Are these tools effective in assessing the wider sustainability costs and benefits taking into account that these are public works with long life spans and significant impacts across institutional boundaries? The research indicates a need to develop clear guidelines for investment decision making in order to better align with corporate sustainability objectives. Findings from the literature review indicate that a more sustainable approach to investment decision-making framework should include: the incorporation of sustainability goals from corporate planning documents; problem definition and option generation using best practice investment management guidelines; improved guidelines for Business Case development using a combination of both Cost Benefit Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis; and an integrated public participation process.

Infrastructure, investment and development evaluation: A Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping approach for improving local and regional economic development outcomes

Partial evaluation of infrastructure investments have resulted in expensive mistakes, unsatisfactory outcomes and increased uncertainties for too many stakeholders, communities and economies in both developing and developed nations. "Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping" (CSPM), is a novel approach that can address existing limitations by inclusively framing, capturing and mapping the spectrum of insights and perceptions using extended Geographic Information Systems. Maps generated in CSPM offer presentations of flexibly combined, complex perceptions of stakeholders on multiple aspects of development. CSPM extends the applications of GIS software in non-spatial mapping and of Multi-Criteria Analysis with a multidimensional evaluation platform and augments decision science capabilities in addressing complexities. Application of CSPM can improve local and regional economic gains from infrastructure projects and aid any multi-objective and multi-stakeholder decision situations.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Strategy for the development of investment decision-making framework for road asset management for queensland department of main roads

The aim of this project is to develop a systematic investment decision-making framework for infrastructure asset management by incorporation economic justification, social and environmental consideration in the decision-making process. This project assesses the factors that are expected to provide significant impacts on the variability of expenditures. A procedure for assessing risk and reliability for project investment appraisals will be developed. The project investigates public perception, social and environmental impacts on road infrastructure investment. This research will contribute to the debate about how important social and environmental issues should be incorporated into the investment decision-making process for infrastructure asset management.

National practices in investment decision making in road sector

This document provides the findings of a national review of investment decision-making practices in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying the strategic objectives of agencies in road asset management, establishing and understanding criteria different organisations adopted and ascertaining the exact methodologies used by different sate road authorities. The investment objectives of Australian road authorities are based on triple-bottom line considerations (social, environmental, economic and political). In some cases, comparing with some social considerations, such as regional economic development, equity, and access to pubic service etc., Benefit-Cost Ratio has limited influence on the decision-making. Australian road authorities have developed various decision support tools. Although Multi-Criteria Analysis has been preliminarily used in case by case study, pavement management systems, which are primarily based on Benefit Cost Analysis, are still the main decision support tool. This situation is not compatible with the triple-bottom line objectives. There is need to fill the gap between decision support tools and decision-making itself. Different decision criteria should be adopted based on the contents of the work. Additional decision criteria, which are able to address social, environmental and political impacts, are needed to develop or identify. Environmental issue plays a more and more important role in decision-making. However, the criteria and respective weights in decision-making process are yet to be clearly identified. Social and political impacts resulted from road infrastructure investment can be identified through Community Perceptions Survey. With accumulative data, prediction models, which are similar as pavement performance models, can be established. Using these models, the decision-makers are able to foresee the social and political consequences of investment alternatives.

A comparative review of quantitative VFM methodology for PPP infrastructure project in Indonesia and Australia

The Government of Indonesia (GoI) increasingly relies on the private sector financing to build and operate infrastructures through public private partnership (PPP) schemes. However, PPP does not automatically provide the solution for the financing scheme due to value for money (VFM) issues. The procurement authority must show whether a PPP proposal is the optimal solution that provides best VFM outcome. The paper presents a literature review of comparing quantitative VFM methodology for PPP infrastructure project procurement in Indonesia and Australia. Public Sector Comparator (PSC) is used to assess the potential project VFM quantitatively in Australia. In Indonesia, the PSC has not been applied, where the PPP procurement authority tends to utilize a common project evaluation method that ignores the issues of risk. Unlike the conventional price bid evaluation, the PSC enables a financial comparison including costs/gains and risks. Since the construction of PSC is primarily on risk management approach, it can facilitate risk negotiation processes between the involved parties. The study indicates that the quantitative VFM methodology of PSC is potentially applicable in Indonesia for water supply sector. Various supporting regulations are available that emphasize the importance of VFM and risk management in infrastructure investment. However, the study also reveals a number of challenges that need to be anticipated, such as the need of a more comprehensive PPP policy at both central and local government level, a more specific legal instrument for bidding evaluation method and the issue of institutional capacity development in PPP Units at the local level.

Occupant comfort, the housing industry and electricity infrastructure : understanding the synergies

Despite increasingly stringent energy performance regulations for new homes, southeast Queensland has a high and growing penetration of, and reliance on, air conditioners to provide thermal comfort to housing inhabitants. This reliance impacts on electricity infrastructure investment which is the key driving force behind rising electricity prices. This paper reports initial findings of a research project that seeks to better understand three key issues: (i) how families manage their thermal comfort in summer and how well their homes limit overheating; (ii) the extent to which the homes have been constructed according to the building approval documentation; and (iii) the impact that these issues have on urban design, especially in relation to electricity infrastructure in urban developments.

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.

The opportunity for implementing Islamic project financing to the Indonesian infrastructure development

Purpose: This chapter discusses the opportunity of Islamic project financing implementation for public infrastructure development in Indonesia. Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter, firstly, reviewed existing literature on Islamic finance to explore the applicability of Islamic financing in infrastructure development. Interviews were conducted as the first stage of Delphi method approach. This was then followed by reviewing Indonesia’s government policies and regulations in infrastructure industry and Islamic financing. Findings: This chapter enlightens the implementation of Islamic financing on infrastructure project financing in Indonesia. The findings indicate that the government policies and regulations on both infrastructure investment and Islamic financing support the implementation of Islamic project financing, whereas, an improvement is still needed in order to overarch infrastructure business and Islamic financing investment. Research: Financing framework development for Indonesia infrastructure projects. Limitations/Implications: The result reported comprises the preliminary study of Islamic project paper written based on published research papers and interviews. Furthermore, the data collected for the study are limited to the case of Indonesian infrastructure projects. Practical Implication: Islamic financing in Indonesia infrastructure projects development has not been optimally implemented. Therefore, this chapter serves as a catalyst to explore alternative financial scheme such as Islamic financing for infrastructure development. Originality/Value: This chapter highlights possibilities and obstacles in applying Islamic scheme to infrastructure project financing. This provides a framework to analyse the steps to implement Islamic financing successfully in infrastructure development.

Is there timing ability in currency markets? Evidence from ADR issuances

Is there timing ability in the exchange rate markets? We address this question by examining foreign firms' decisions to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Specifically, we test whether foreign firms consider currency market conditions in their ADR issuance decisions and, in doing so, display some ability to time their local exchange rate market. We study ADR issuances in the U.S. stock market between 1976 and 2003. We find that foreign firms tend to issue ADRs after their local currency has been abnormally strong against the U.S. dollar and before their local currency becomes abnormally weak. This evidence is statistically significant even after controlling for local and U.S. past and future stock market performance and predicable exchange rate movements. Currency market timing is especially significant i) for value companies, relatively small (yet absolutely large) companies issuing relatively large amounts of ADRs, companies with higher currency exposure, manufacturing companies, and emerging market companies, ii) during currency crises (when mispricings are rife) and after the integration of the issuer's local financial market with the world capital markets, iii) when the ADR issue raises capital for the issuing firm (Level III ADR), and iv) regardless of the identity of the underwriting investment bank. Currency market timing is also economically significant since it translates into total savings for the issuing firms of about $646 million (or 1.86% of the total capital-raising ADR issue volume). In contrast, we find no evidence of currency timing ability in a control sample made of non-capital raising ADRs (Level II ADRs). These findings suggest that some companies may have, at least occasionally, private information about foreign exchange.

Performance evaluation of eight contemporary passive solar homes in subtropical Australia

Subtropical south-east Queensland’s expanding population is expected to lead to a demand for an additional 754,000 dwellings by 2031. A legacy of poor housing design, minimal building regulations, an absence of building performance evaluation and various social and market factors has lead to a high and growing penetration of, and reliance on, air conditioners to provide comfort in this relatively benign climate. This reliance impacts on policy goals to adapt to and mitigate against global warming, electricity infrastructure investment and household resilience. Based on the concept of bioclimatic design, this field study scrutinizes eight non-air conditioned homes to develop a deeper understanding of the role of contemporary passive solar architecture in the delivery of thermally comfortable and resilient homes in the subtropics. These homes were found to provide inhabitants with an acceptable level of thermal comfort (18-28oC) for 77 – 97% of the year. Family expectations and experiences of comfort, and the various design strategies utilized were compared against the measured performance outcomes. This comparison revealed issues that limited quantification and implementation of design intent and highlighted factors that constrained system optimisation.

Developing a sustainability impact assessment framework for local urban planning

In order to meet the land use and infrastructure needs of the community with the additional challenges posed by climate change and a global recession, it is essential that Queensland local governments test their proposed integrated land use and infrastructure plans to ensure the maximum achievement of triple-bottom line sus-tainability goals. Extensive regulatory impact assessment systems are in place at the Australian and state government levels to substantiate and test policy and legislative proposals, however no such requirement has been extended to the local government level. This paper contends that with the devolution of responsibility to local government and growing impacts of local government planning and development assessment activities, impact assessment of regulatory planning instruments is appropriate and overdue. This is particularly so in the Queensland context where local governments manage metropolitan and regional scale responsibilities and their planning schemes under the Sustainable Planning Act 2009 integrate land use and infrastructure planning to direct development rights, the spatial allocation of land, and infrastructure investment. It is critical that urban planners have access to fit-for-purpose impact assessment frameworks which support this challenging task and address the important relationship between local planning and sustainable urban development. This paper uses two examples of sustainability impact assessment and a case study from the Queensland local urban planning context to build an argument and potential starting point for impact assessment in local planning processes.

New labour and the environment : too little too late.

New Labour and the environment: too little too late – symbolic success but real failure Achievements: Introduction of the Climate Change Act 2008, Low Carbon Transition Plan, the creation of the Department of Energy and Climate Change, establishment of several ‘green’ quangos and Green Investment Bank, Warm Front Scheme, international leadership on Kyoto and the European Directive for Landfill and Renewable Energy. Disappointments: Increased green house gas emissions that failto meet domestic UK targets, let alone Kyoto; significant increasesin energy and transport emissions; EU air pollution violations; failure to regulate the importation of illegally logged timber and wildlife; increase in chemical agriculture; unwillingness to tackle corporate environmental crime; road expansions and runway projects at the expense of low emission alternative public transport. Biggest broken promises: Global warming, low carbon transport; protection of biodiversity.