How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Diversity of Cicadellidae in agricultural production areas in the Ovens Valley, Northeast Victoria, Australia

There is a paucity of data on the distribution of Cicadellidae (leafhoppers) in Australia. This study quantifies the relative abundance, seasonal activity and diversity of leafhoppers in the Ovens Valley region of north-east Victoria, Australia. Species diversity and abundance was assessed at four field sites in and around the field borders of commercially grown tobacco crops using three sampling techniques (pan trap, sticky trap and sweep net). Over 51 000 leafhopper samples were collected, with 57 species from 11 subfamilies and 19 tribes identified. Greater numbers and diversity of leafhoppers were collected in yellow pan traps. The predominant leafhopper collected was Orosius orientalis (Matsumura). Twenty-three leafhopper species were recorded for the first time in Victoria and eight economically important pest species were recorded. Seasonal activity of selected leafhopper species, covering two sampling seasons, is presented.

Conceptualising climate change in rural Australia : community perceptions, attitudes and (in) actions

Public engagement and support is essential for ensuring adaptation to climate change. The first step in achieving engagement is documenting how the general public currently perceive and understand climate change issues, specifically the importance they place on this global problem and identifying any unique challenges for individual communities. For rural communities, which rely heavily on local agriculture industries, climate change brings both potential impacts and opportunities. Yet, to date, our knowledge about how rural residents conceptualise climate change is limited. Thus, this research explores how the broader rural community – not only farmers – conceptualise climate change and responsive activities, focussing on documenting the understandings and risk perceptions of local residents from two small Australian rural communities. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted in communities in the Eden/Gippsland region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria, and the North-East of Tasmania. There are conflicting views on how climate change is conceptualised, the degree of concern and need for action, the role of local industry, who will 'win' and 'lose', and the willingness of rural communities to adapt. In particular, residents who believed in anthropogenic or human-induced factors described the changing climate as evidence of 'climate change', whereas those who were more sceptical termed it 'weather variability', suggesting that there is a divide in rural Australia that, unless urgently addressed, will hinder local and national policy responses to this global issue. Engaging these communities in the 21st century climate change debate will require a significant change in terminology and communication strategies.

A new dasyurid marsupial from eastern Queensland, Australia : the buff-footed Antechinus, Antechinus mysticus sp. nov. (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae)

Antechinus mysticus sp. nov. occurs in coastal Australia, ranging from just north of the Queensland (Qld)/New South Wales (NSW) border to Mackay (mid-east Qld), and is sympatric with A. flavipes (Waterhouse) and A. subtropicus Van Dyck & Crowther in south-east Qld. The new species can be distinguished in the field, having paler feet and tail base than A. flavipes and a greyish head that merges to buff-yellow on the rump and flanks, compared with the more uniform brown head and body of A. subtropicus and A. stuartii Macleay. Features of the dentary can also be used for identification: A. mysticus differs from A. flavipes in having smaller molar teeth, from A. subtropicus in having a larger gap between front and rear palatal vacuities, and from A. stuartii in having a generally broader snout. Here, we present a morphological analysis of the new species in comparison with every member of the genus, including a discussion of genetic structure and broader evolutionary trends, as well as an identification key to species based on dental characters. It seems likely that the known geographic range of A. mysticus will expand as taxonomic focus on the genus is concentrated in south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales.

Taxonomy and palaeoecology of Quaternary faunas from caves in eastern tropical Queensland : a record of broad-scale environmental change

Analysis of fossils from cave deposits at Mount Etna (eastern-central Queensland) has established that a species-rich rainforest palaeoenvironment existed in that area during the middle Pleistocene. This unexpected finding has implications for several fields (e.g., biogeography/phylogeography of rainforest-adapted taxa, and the impact of climate change on rainforest communities), but it was unknown whether the Mount Etna sites represented a small refugial patch of rainforest or was more widespread. In this study numerous bone deposits in caves in north-east Queensland are analysed to reconstruct the environmental history of the area during the late Quaternary. Study sites are in the Chillagoe/Mitchell Palmer and Broken River/Christmas Creek areas. The cave fossil records in these study areas are compared with dated (middle Pleistocene-Holocene) cave sites in the Mount Etna area. Substantial taxonomic work on the Mount Etna faunas (particularly dasyurid marsupials and murine rodents) is also presented as a prerequisite for meaningful comparison with the study sites further north. Middle Pleistocene sites at Mount Etna contain species indicative of a rainforest palaeoenvironment. Small mammal assemblages in the Mount Etna rainforest sites (>500-280 ka) are unexpectedly diverse and composed almost entirely of new species. Included in the rainforest assemblages are lineages with no extant representatives in rainforest (e.g., Leggadina), one genus previously known only from New Guinea (Abeomelomys), and forms that appear to bridge gaps between related but morphologically-divergent extant taxa ('B-rat' and 'Pseudomys C'). Curiously, some taxa (e.g., Melomys spp.) are notable for their absence from the Mount Etna rainforest sites. After 280 ka the rainforest faunas are replaced by species adapted to open, dry habitats. At that time the extinct ‘rainforest’ dasyurids and rodents are replaced by species that are either extant or recently extant. By the late Pleistocene all ‘rainforest’ and several ‘dry’ taxa are locally or completely extinct, and the small mammal fauna resembles that found in the area today. The faunal/environmental changes recorded in the Mount Etna sites were interpreted by previous workers as the result of shifts in climate during the Pleistocene. Many samples from caves in the Chillagoe/Mitchell-Palmer and Broken River/Christmas Creek areas are held in the Queensland Museum’s collection. These, supplemented with additional samples collected in the field as well as samples supplied by other workers, were systematically and palaeoecologically analysed for the first time. Palaeoecological interpretation of the faunal assemblages in the sites suggests that they encompass a similar array of palaeoenvironments as the Mount Etna sites. ‘Rainforest’ sites at the Broken River are here interpreted as being of similar age to those at Mount Etna, suggesting the possibility of extensive rainforest coverage in eastern tropical Queensland during part of the Pleistocene. Likewise, faunas suggesting open, dry palaeoenvironments are found at Chillagoe, the Broken River and Mount Etna, and may be of similar age. The 'dry' faunal assemblage at Mount Etna (Elephant hole Cave) dates to 205-170 ka. Dating of one of the Chillagoe sites (QML1067) produced a maximum age for the deposit of approximately 200 ka, and the site is interpreted as being close to that age, supporting the interpretation of roughly contemporaneous deposition at Mount Etna and Chillagoe. Finally, study sites interpreted as being of late Pleistocene-Holocene age show faunal similarities to sites of that age near Mount Etna. This study has several important implications for the biogeography and phylogeography of murine rodents, and represents a major advance in the study of the Australian murine fossil record. Likewise the survey of the northern study areas is the first systematic analysis of multiple sites in those areas, and is thus a major contribution to knowledge of tropical Australian faunas during the Quaternary. This analysis suggests that climatic changes during the Pleistocene affected a large area of eastern tropical Queensland in similar ways. Further fieldwork and dating is required to properly analyse the geographical extent and timing of faunal change in eastern tropical Queensland.

Sustainability of a successful health and nutrition program in a remote Aboriginal community

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long term effect of a nutrition program in a remote Aboriginal community (Minjilang). DESIGN: Evaluation of nutritional outcomes over the three years before and the three years after a health and nutrition program that ran from June 1989 to June 1990. Turnover of food items at the community store was used as a measure of dietary intake at Minjilang and a comparison community. SETTING: A community of about 150 Aboriginal people live at Minjilang on Croker Island, 240 km north-east of Darwin. A similar community of about 300 people on another island was used as the comparison. RESULTS: The program produced lasting improvements in dietary intake of most target foods (including fruit, vegetables and wholegrain bread) and nutrients (including folate, ascorbic acid and thiamine). Sugar intake fell in both communities before the program, but the additional decrease in sugar consumption during the program at Minjilang "rebounded" in the next year. Dietary improvements in the comparison community were delayed and smaller than at Minjilang. CONCLUSIONS: The success of the program at Minjilang was linked to an ongoing process of social change, which in turn provided a stimulus for dietary improvement in the comparison community. When Aboriginal people themselves control and maintain ownership of community-based intervention programs, nutritional improvements can be initiated and sustained.

Taxonomy and redescription of the Atherton Antechinus, Antechinus godmani (Thomas) (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae)

We provide a taxonomic redescription of the dasyurid marsupial Atherton Antechinus, Antechinus godmani (Thomas). A. godmani is only rarely encountered and limited to wet tropical rainforests of north-east Queensland, Australia, between the towns of Cardwell and Cairns (a distribution spanning 135 kilometres from north to south). The distinctive species occurs at altitudes of over 600 meters asl, in all major rainforest types, and can be found with both the northern subspecies of the Yellow-footed Antechinus, A. flavipes rubeculus Van Dyck and the Rusty Antechinus, A. adustus (Thomas). A. god-mani is clearly separated from all congeners on the basis of both morphometrics and genetics. A. godmani can be distin-guished from all extant congeners based on external morphology by a combination of large size, naked-looking tail and reddish fur on the face and head. A. godmani skulls are characteristically large, with a suite of long features: basicranium, palate, upper premolar tooth row, inter-palatal vacuity distance and dentary. Phylogenies generated from mt- and nDNA data position Antechinus godmani as monophyletic with respect to other members of the genus; A. godmani is strongly supported as the sister-group to a clade containing all other antechinus, but excluding the south-east Australian Dusky An-techinus, A. swainsonii (Waterhouse) and Swamp Antechinus, A. minimus (Geoffroy). Antechinus godmani are genetically very divergent compared to all congeners (mtDNA: range 12.9–16.3%).

Namoi : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Namoi River winds its way through 42 000 square kilometres of blacksoil plain in the north east of New South Wales. Fed by the rivers of the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, it contributes about one quarter of the Darling River’s flow. The river, its floodplain, wetlands, swamps and waterholes, are the traditional lands of the Gamilaraay* people. The Namoi is a very different river to the one the Gamilaraay people once knew and fished...

The Black-tailed Antechinus, Antechinus arktos sp. nov.: a new species of carnivorous marsupial from montane regions of the Tweed Volcano caldera, eastern Australia

We describe a new species of dasyurid marsupial within the genus Antechinus that was previously known as a northern outlier of Dusky Antechinus (A. swainsonii). The Black-tailed Antechinus, Antechinus arktos sp. nov., is known only from areas of high altitude and high rainfall on the Tweed Volcano caldera of far south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, Australia. Antechinus arktos formerly sheltered under the taxonomic umbrella of A. swainsonii mimetes, the widespread mainland form of Dusky Antechinus. With the benefit of genetic hindsight, some striking morphological differences are herein resolved: A. s. mimetes is more uniformly deep brown-black to grizzled grey-brown from head to rump, with brownish (clove brown—raw umber) hair on the upper surface of the hindfoot and tail, whereas A. arktos is more vibrantly coloured, with a marked change from greyish-brown head to orange-brown rump, fuscous black on the upper surface of the hindfoot and dense, short fur on the evenly black tail. Further, A. arktos has marked orange-brown fur on the upper and lower eyelid, cheek and in front of the ear and very long guard hairs all over the body; these characters are more subtle in A. s. mimetes. There are striking genetic differences between the two species: at mtDNA, A. s. mimetes from north-east New South Wales is 10% divergent to A. arktos from its type locality at Springbrook NP, Queensland. In contrast, the Ebor A. s. mimetes clades closely with conspecifics from ACT and Victoria. A. arktos skulls are strikingly different to all subspecies of A. swainsonii. A. arktos are markedly larger than A. s. mimetes and A. s. swainsonii (Tasmania) for a range of craniodental measures. Antechinus arktos were historically found at a few proximate mountainous sites in south-east Queensland, and have only recently been recorded from or near the type locality. Even there, the species is likely in low abundance. The Black-tailed Antechinus has plausibly been detrimentally affected by climate change in recent decades, and will be at further risk with increasing warming trends.

Subtropical futures : Victoria Park re-imagined

Brisbane, the capital of Queensland, in South-East Queensland is situated on the Brisbane River, one of the largest rivers (and floodplains) on the east coast of Australia. The river defines the city and gives it its name. The river has been a natural place to accommodate some population growth for the city with high-density development that capitalises on the natural amenity, cycleways and a string of parks and the flatter land. The major floods of 2011 and the scare of 2013, has seen a more malevolent quality of the river and shift of thinking on its role within the city. The floods have made council, for the first time, acquire prime development sites near the river, with proposals for high density development and made them parks, at great cost. The pressure for population growth in Brisbane remains. 140,000 new dwellings are required by 2031. Brownfield sites are less plentiful and there is interest to rethink of some of the other strategic locations in the city away from the river on higher ground and steeper slopes. Some of these places are currently open spaces. Victoria Park Golf Course sits on a high ridge line and a very strategic part of the city just north of the city centre is one of the few remaining golf courses close to the centre of an Australian capital city. While it is a public course and a valuable community asset, it has been compromised by the recently completed northern busway with two bus stations constructed on its edges. It is bounded on the west and north-east by two major community facilities, the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to the west and RBW Hospital at its northern end. In a city in need of urban consolidation, perhaps it is time to review the future of the golf course. This question has been investigated as a conjecture in the Master of Architecture program at the QUT. The project has been to re-imagine Victoria Park as a new city parkland and a place that makes an urban connection from the QUT to the hospital. This new urban precinct is be a medium to high-density transit oriented development that capitalises on the bus way stations and the proximity of the university and hospital. The precinct will frame/define/interact with the new major urban park for the city. A key question being addressed is how the design can embody and define principles of a subtropical urbanism. Students are identifying the appropriate street and block structure, density and built form to be accommodated on blocks that define and activate a rich sequence of streets and public spaces. The paper will present a critical overview of the project work that provides a lens to how future professionals may respond to these issue that will be the focus of their professional lives.

Genetic divergence and echolocation call frequency in cryptic species of Hipposideros larvatus s.l. (Chiroptera : Hipposideridae) from the Indo-Malayan region

The intermediate leaf-nosed bat (Hipposideros larvatus) is a medium-sized bat distributed throughout the Indo-Malay region. In north-east India, bats identified as H. larvatus captured at a single cave emitted echolocation calls with a bimodal distribution of peak frequencies, around either 85 kHz or 98 kHz. Individuals echolocating at 85 kHz had larger ears and longer forearms than those echolocating at 98 kHz, although no differences were detected in either wing morphology or diet, suggesting limited resource partitioning. A comparison of mitochondrial control region haplotypes of the two phonic types with individuals sampled from across the Indo-Malay range supports the hypothesis that, in India, two cryptic species are present. The Indian 98-kHz phonic bats formed a monophyletic clade with bats from all other regional populations sampled, to the exclusion of the Indian 85-kHz bats. In India, the two forms showed 12–13% sequence divergence and we propose that the name Hipposideros khasiana for bats of the 85-kHz phonic type. Bats of the 98-kHz phonic type formed a monophyletic group with bats from Myanmar, and corresponded to Hipposideros grandis, which is suggested to be a species distinct from Hipposideros larvatus. Differences in echolocation call frequency among populations did not reflect phylogenetic relationships, indicating that call frequency is a poor indicator of evolutionary history. Instead, divergence in call frequency probably occurs in allopatry, possibly augmented by character displacement on secondary contact to facilitate intraspecific communication.

Cost-effectiveness of hospital infection control interventions in resource-limited settings

The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hand hygiene interventions in resource-limited hospital settings. Using data from north-east Thailand, the research found that such interventions are likely to be very cost-effective in intensive care unit settings as a result of reduced incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection alone. This study also found evidence showing that the World Health Organization's (WHO) multimodal intervention is effective and when adding either goal-setting, reward incentives, or accountability strategies to the WHO intervention, compliance could be further improved.

Real-time kinematic positioning over long baselines using triple-frequency BeiDou signals

The BeiDou system is the first global navigation satellite system in which all satellites transmit triple-frequency signals that can provide the positioning, navigation, and timing independently. A benefit of triple-frequency signals is that more useful combinations can be formed, including some extrawide-lane combinations whose ambiguities can generally be instantaneously fixed without distance restriction, although the narrow-lane ambiguity resolution (NL AR) still depends on the interreceiver distance or requires a long time to achieve. In this paper, we synthetically study decimeter and centimeter kinematic positioning using BeiDou triple-frequency signals. It starts with AR of two extrawide-lane signals based on the ionosphere-free or ionosphere-reduced geometry-free model. For decimeter positioning, one can immediately use two ambiguity-fixed extrawide-lane observations without pursuing NL AR. To achieve higher accuracy, NL AR is the necessary next step. Despite the fact that long-baseline NL AR is still challenging, some NL ambiguities can indeed be fixed with high reliability. Partial AR for NL signals is acceptable, because as long as some ambiguities for NL signals are fixed, positioning accuracy will be certainly improved.With accumulation of observations, more and more NL ambiguities are fixed and the positioning accuracy continues to improve. An efficient Kalman-filtering system is established to implement the whole process. The formulated system is flexible, since the additional constraints can be easily applied to enhance the model's strength. Numerical results from a set of real triple-frequency BeiDou data on a 50 km baseline show that decimeter positioning is achievable instantaneously.With only five data epochs, 84% of NL ambiguities can be fixed so that the real-time kinematic accuracies are 4.5, 2.5, and 16 cm for north, east, and height components (respectively), while with 10 data epochs more than 90% of NL ambiguities are fixed, and the rea- -time kinematic solutions are improved to centimeter level for all three coordinate components.