Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

Intensive Case Management: A Critical Re-Appraisal of the Scientific Evidence for Effectiveness

Intensive Case Management (ICM) is widely claimed to be an evidence-based and cost effective program for people with high levels of disability as a result of mental illness. However, the findings of recent randomized controlled trials comparing ICM with ‘usual services’ suggest that both clinical and cost effectiveness of ICM may be weakening. Possible reasons for this, including fidelity of implementation, researcher allegiance effects and changes in the wider service environment within which ICM is provided, are considered. The implications for service delivery and research are discussed.

Re-examining the evidence in radiation dermatitis management literature : an overview and a critical appraisal of systematic reviews

Purpose: To provide an overview and a critical appraisal of systematic reviews (SRs) of published interventions for the prevention/management of radiation dermatitis. Methods and Materials: We searched Medline, CINAHL, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. We also manually searched through individual reference lists of potentially eligible articles and a number of key journals in the topic area. Two authors screened all potential articles and included eligible SRs. Two authors critically appraised and extracted key findings from the included reviews using AMSTAR (the measurement tool for “assessment of multiple systematic reviews”). Results: Of 1837 potential titles, 6 SRs were included. A number of interventions have been reported to be potentially beneficial for managing radiation dermatitis. Interventions evaluated in these reviews included skin care advice, steroidal/nonsteroidal topical agents, systemic therapies, modes of radiation delivery, and dressings. However, all the included SRs reported that there is insufficient evidence supporting any single effective intervention. The methodological quality of the included studies varied, and methodological shortfalls in these reviews might create biases to the overall results or recommendations for clinical practice. Conclusions: An up-to-date high-quality SR in the prevention/management of radiation dermatitis is needed to guide practice and direction for future research. We recommend that clinicians or guideline developers critically evaluate the information of SRs in their decision making.

Threat appraisal for harm from falls: Insights for development of education-based intervention

Objective: This study aims to describe how patients perceive the threat of falls in hospitals, to identify patient characteristics that are associated with greater or lesser perceptions of the threat of falls, and to examine whether there is a discord between the risk that patients perceive in general and the risk that they perceive for themselves personally. Method: A cross-sectional survey amongst geriatric rehabilitation inpatients in Brisbane, Australia, was implemented. The first component of the survey dealt with the ‘general’ nature of in-hospital falls and falls related risks while the second component of the survey was directed at identifying whether the patient held the same belief for themselves. Results: A total of 21 out of 125 participants (17%) indicated that they felt that they were at risk of falling during their hospitalisation and 28 (22%) felt that they would injure themselves if they were to fall. Self-perceived risk of falls was associated with decreasing age and lower cognitive function (Functional Independence Measure Cognitive score). A majority of patients felt that falls most commonly occur in the bathroom [n=67 (54%)] and that if they were to fall, they would fall in the bathroom [n=56 (45%)]. Discussion: Patients generally do not think they are at risk of falling while in hospital and this may contribute to poor adherence to falls prevention strategies. It is possible that raising patient perception of the risk of falls and injury from falls in hospitals may help improve adherence to falls prevention strategies in this setting.

Food consumption of Sri Lankan adults : an appraisal of serving characteristics

Objective The main aim of the present study was to identify food consumption in Sri Lankan adults based on serving characteristics. Design Cross-sectional study. Fruits, vegetables, starch, meat, pulses, dairy products and added sugars in the diet were assessed with portion sizes estimated using standard methods. Setting Twelve randomly selected clusters from the Sri Lanka Diabetes and Cardiovascular Study. Subjects Six hundred non-institutionalized adults. Results The daily intake of fruit (0·43), vegetable (1·73) and dairy (0·39) portions were well below national recommendations. Only 3·5 % of adults consumed the recommended 5 portions of fruits and vegetables/d; over a third of the population consumed no dairy products and fewer than 1 % of adults consumed 2 portions/d. In contrast, Sri Lankan adults consumed over 14 portions of starch and 3·5 portions of added sugars daily. Almost 70 % of those studied exceeded the upper limit of the recommendations for starch intake. The total daily number of meat and pulse portions was 2·78. Conclusions Dietary guidelines emphasize the importance of a balanced and varied diet; however, a substantial proportion of the Sri Lankan population studied failed to achieve such a recommendation. Nutrition-related diseases in the country may be closely correlated with unhealthy eating habits.

A critical appraisal of responses to Maori offending

This article critically analyses the role that criminological theory and specific policy formulations of culture play in the New Zealand state’s response to the over-representation of Māori in the criminal justice system. Part one provides an overview of the changing criminological explanations of, and responses to, Māori offending in New Zealand from the 1980s onwards and how these understandings extended colonialist approaches to Māori and crime into the neo-colonial context. In particular, we chart the shift in policy development from theorising Māori offending as attributable to loss of cultural identity to a focus on socio-economic and institutional antecedents and, finally, through the risk factors, assessment, and criminogenic needs approaches that have gained prominence in the current policy context. In part two, the focus moves to the strategies employed by members of the academy to elevate their own epistemological constructions of Māori social reality within the policy development process. In particular, the critique scrutinises recent attempts to portray Indigenous responses to social harm as “unscientific” and, in part, responsible for the continuing over-representation of Māori in New Zealand’s criminal justice system. The purpose of this analysis is to focus the critical, criminological gaze firmly on the activities of policy makers and administrative criminologists, to examine how their policies and approaches impact on Māori as an Indigenous people.

Appraisal of the quality of care of older people with cognitive impairment presenting to emergency departments

The medical records of 273 patients 75 years and older were reviewed to evaluate quality of emergency department (ED) care through the use of quality indicators. One hundred fifty records contained evidence of an attempt to carry out a cognitive assessment. Documented evidence of cognitive impairment (CI) was reported in 54 cases. Of these patients, 30 had no documented evidence of an acute change in cognitive function from baseline; of 26 patients discharged home with preexisting CI (i.e., no acute change from baseline), 15 had no documented evidence of previous consideration of this issue by a health care provider; and 12 of 21 discharged patients who screened positive for cognitive issues for the first time were not referred for outpatient evaluation. These findings suggest that the majority of older adults in the ED are not receiving a formal cognitive assessment, and more than half with CI do not receive quality of care according to the quality indicators for geriatric emergency care. Recommendations for improvement are discussed.

Climate change and reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases from ships : an appraisal

Article 2(2) of the Kyoto Protocol imposes an obligation only on certain developed countries, working through the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), to pursue the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from marine bunker fuels. The IMO recently took the initiative to adopt a new legal instrument for the reduction of shipgenerated greenhouse gas emissions. Some developing countries have suggested that the proposed IMO initiative should strictly adhere to Article 2(2) of the Kyoto Protocol and the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR). Against this backdrop, this article intends to review the extent to which it is possible to propose an international legal instrument for the reduction of GHG emissions from marine bunker fuels which is applicable only to ships from developed countries considering the complex characteristics of the international shipping industry. This article also examines how far this approach is justifiable even within the framework of the CBDR principle.

Developing a framework for subcontractor appraisal using a balanced scorecard

Subcontractors contribute significantly to construction projects and their performance can seriously affect over-all project success. It is crucial, therefore, to appraise the performance of subcontractors to ensure they satisfy the client's expectations and project requirements. To increase the transparency and accuracy of subcontractor appraisal, the baseline and target performance levels should be set at the outset so that the appraisers and those being appraised realize exactly what standards are to be achieved. The balanced scorecard, being a powerful tool for performance appraisal, offers a potentially good approach for modeling the subcontractor appraisal process. In this paper, an approach to developing a balanced scorecard subcontractor appraisal model is proposed and demonstrated through a questionnaire survey administered in Hong Kong and from which the baseline and target performance levels for large-scale skilled subcontractors are identified. A case example is used to illustrate the operation of the model. Finally, a means by which the model may be validated is demonstrated through the use of field experts. The results demonstrate the feasibility of developing a balanced scorecard model that can help improve the transparency of subcontractor appraisal despite the baseline and target performance levels changing according to the project characteristics, subcontractor categories and size.