Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Balls up : the converse blank canvas project

Research background: For decades the Chuck Taylor All Star basketball shoe (first designed in 1921 by Converse, an American shoe company), has been an iconic item of fashion apparel, particularly for the youth oriented market - as a form of self expression and identify, adolescents have for generations been customising their Converse sneakers to create innovative and unique footwear. Although originally developed purely for sport, sneakers gradually crossed over into fashion and the majority of athletic shoes are now purchased for street fashion or leisure wear. Artisan Gallery (Brisbane), in conjunction with the exhibition Reboot: Function, Fashion and the Sneaker, a history of the sneaker, selected 20 designers to customise and re-design the classic Converse Chuck Taylor All Stars shoe and in doing so highlighted the diversity of forms possible for creative outcomes. As Artisan Gallery Curator Kirsten Fitzpatrick states “the ‘sports show’, designed to coincide with the Olympics, is also about exploring the sneaker as a platform for creativity... and (one) of the more bazaar creations was Dean Brough's deconstructed shoes to make men’s underwear.” The exhibition ran from 21 June – 16 August 2012: http://artisan-ideaskillproduct.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/converse-blank-canvas-project.html Research question: Even though the sneaker is a fashion item, it still is fundamentally used for foot protection and historically was aligned to ball sports, principally Basketball - as a fashion designers/practitioner how can I connect (in a whimsical manner) this history of usage for ball sports to the sneaker and re-design and re-use all the physical elements of the shoe to produce a unique wearable item of clothing - the selected medium for this challenge and experimentation was the classic archetypal men’s white boxer shorts. Artisan Statement BALLS UP - The Converse Sneaker, it’s almost impossible to imagine a better rounded item to maintain peak performance for all types of ball sports. Gentlemen, your other most precious balls also deserve this level of comfort and support to sustain the hard times – the Converse Boxer, balls up, bats out, get ready to play hard. Research contribution: The project highlighted some of the unique and diverse creative manifestations that are possible from the classic sneaker. From a fashion practitioners’ perspective, the design outcomes (men’s boxer short made from converse sneakers) demonstrated the strong association to iconic fashion apparel, and recognised the connection to wearability and comfort that is requisite in both footwear and men’s underwear. Research significance: The exhibition was viewed by in excess of 1000 people and generated exceptional media coverage and public exposure/impact. As Artisan Gallery Curator Kirsten Fitzpatrick states “20 of Brisbane's best designers were given the opportunity to customise their own Converse Sneakers, with The Converse Blank Canvas Project.” And to be selected in this category demonstrates the calibre of importance for design prominence.

Converse consumption : the converse blank canvas project

Research background For almost 80 years the Chuck Taylor (or Chuck T's) All Star basketball shoe has been an iconic item of fashion apparel. The Chuck T's were first designed in 1921 by Converse, an American shoe company and over the decades they became a popular item not purely for sports and athletic purposes but rather evolved into the shoe of choice for many subcultural groups as a fashion item. In some circles the Chuck Taylor is still seen as the "coolest" sneaker of all time - one which will never go out of fashion regardless of changing trends. With over 600 millions pairs sold all over the world since its release, the Converse shoe is representative of not only a fashion culture - but also of a consumption culture - that evolved as the driving force behind the massive growth of the Western economic system during the 20th Century. Artisan Gallery (Brisbane), in conjunction with the exhibition Reboot: Function, Fashion and the Sneaker, a history of the sneaker, selected 20 designers to customise and re-design the classic Converse Chuck Taylor All Stars shoe and in doing so highlighted the diversity of forms possible for creative outcomes. As Artisan Gallery Curator Kirsten Fitzpatrick states “We were expecting people to draw and paint on them. Instead, we had shoes... mounted as trophies.." referring to the presentation of "Converse Consumption". The exhibition ran from 21 June – 16 August 2012: Research question The Chuck T’s is one of many overwhelmingly commercially successful designs of the last century. Nowadays we are faced with the significant problems of overconsumption and the stress this causes on the natural ecosystem; and on people as a result. As an active member of the industrial design fraternity – a discipline that sits at the core of this problem - how can I use this opportunity to comment on the significant issue of consumption? An effective way to do this was to associate consumption of goods with consumption of sugar. There are significant similarities between our ceaseless desires to consume products and our fervent need to consume indulgent sweet foods. Artisan Statement Delicious, scrumptious, delectable... your pupils dilate, your blood pressure spikes, your liver goes into overdrive. Immediately, your brain cuts off the adenosine receptors, preventing drowsiness. Your body increases dopamine production, in-turn stimulating the pleasure receptors in your brain. Your body absorbs all the sweetness and turns it into fat – while all the nutrients that you actually require are starting to be destroyed, about to be expelled. And this is only after one bite! After some time though, your body comes crashing back to earth. You become irritable and begin to feel sluggish. Your eyelids seem heavy while your breathing pattern changes. Your body has consumed all the energy and destroyed all available nutrients. You literally begin to shut down. These are the physiological effects of sugar consumption. A perfect analogy for our modern day consumer driven world. Enjoy your dessert! Research contribution “Converse Consumption” contributes to the conversation regarding over-consumption by compelling people to reflect on their consumption behaviour through the reconceptualising of the deconstructed Chuck T’s in an attractive edible form. By doing so the viewer has to deal with the desire to consume the indulgent looking dessert with the contradictory fact that it is comprised of a pair of shoes. The fact that the shoes are Chuck T’s make the effect even more powerful due to their iconic status. These clashing motivations are what make “Converse Consumption” a bizarre yet memorable experience. Significance The exhibition was viewed by an excess of 1000 people and generated exceptional media coverage and public exposure/impact. As Artisan Gallery Curator Kirsten Fitzpatrick states “20 of Brisbane's best designers were given the opportunity to customise their own Converse Sneakers, with The Converse Blank Canvas Project.” And to be selected in this category demonstrates the calibre of importance for design prominence.

Near infrared optical materials from polymeric amorphous carbon synthesized by collisional plasma process

The synthesis of polymerlike amorphous carbon(a-C:H) thin-films by microwave excited collisional hydrocarbon plasma process is reported. Stable and highly aromatic a-C:H were obtained containing significant inclusions of poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV). PPV confers universal optoelectronic properties to the synthesized material. That is a-C:H with tailor-made refractive index are capable of becoming absorption-free in visible (red)-near infrared wavelength range. Production of large aromatic hydrocarbon including phenyl clusters and/or particles is attributed to enhanced coagulation of elemental plasma species under collisional plasma conditions. Detailed structural and morphological changes that occur in a-C:H during the plasma synthesis are also described.

Optical waveguide and cavity effects on whispering-gallery mode resonances in a ZnO nanonail

Spatially resolved cathodoluminescence (CL) study of a ZnO nanonail, having thin shank, tapered neck, and hexagonal head sections, is reported. Monochromatic imaging and line scan profiling indicate that the wave guiding and leaking from growth imperfections in addition to the oxygen deficiency variation determine the spatial contrast of CL emissions. Occurrence of resonance peaks at identical wavelengths regardless of CL-excitation spots is inconsistent with the whispering-gallery mode (WGM) resonances of a two-dimensional cavity in the finite difference time domain simulation. However, three dimensioanl cavity simulation produced WGM peaks that are consistent with the experimental spectra, including transverse-electric resonances that are comparable to transverse-magnetic ones.

Current state of the application of infrared optical methods for assessing articular cartilage

This paper reviews the current state in the application of infrared methods, particularly mid-infrared (mid-IR) and near infrared (NIR), for the evaluation of the structural and functional integrity of articular cartilage. It is noted that while a considerable amount of research has been conducted with respect to tissue characterization using mid-IR, it is almost certain that full-thickness cartilage assessment is not feasible with this method. On the contrary, the relatively more considerable penetration capacity of NIR suggests that it is a suitable candidate for full-thickness cartilage evaluation. Nevertheless, significant research is still required to improve the specificity and clinical applicability of the method if we are going to be able to use it for distinguishing between functional and dysfunctional cartilage.

Validation of optical low coherence reflectometry retinal and choroidal biometry

To compare measurements of retinal thickness (RT) and choroidal thickness (ChT) obtained with an optical low coherence reflectometry (OLCR) biometer (Lenstar LS 900) with those obtained with a spectral domain optical coherence tomographer (SD OCT) (Copernicus SOCT HR) in young normal subjects.

Relationship among CFH and ARMS2 genotypes, macular pigment optical density, and neuroretinal function in persons without age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To determine whether there is a difference in neuroretinal function and in macular pigment optical density between persons with high- and low-risk gene variants for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and no ophthalmoscopic signs of AMD, and to compare the results on neuroretinal function to patients with manifest early AMD. Methods and Participants: Neuroretinal function was assessed with the multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) for 32 participants (22 healthy persons with no AMD and 10 early AMD patients). The 22 healthy participants with no AMD had high- or low-risk genotypes for either CFH (rs380390) and/or ARMS2 (rs10490924). Trough-to-peak response densities and peak-implicit times were analyzed in 5 concentric rings. Macular pigment optical densitometry was assessed by customized heterochromatic flicker photometry. Results: Trough-to-peak response densities for concentric rings 1 to 3 were, on average, significantly greater in participants with high-risk genotypes than in participants with low-risk genotypes and in persons with early AMD after correction for age and smoking (p<0.05). The group peak- implicit times for ring 1 were, on average, delayed in the patients with early AMD compared with the participants with high- or low-risk genotypes, although these differences were not significant. There was no significant correlation between genotypes and macular pigment optical density. Conclusion: Increased neuroretinal activity in persons who carry high-risk AMD genotypes may be due to genetically determined subclinical inflammatory and/or histological changes in the retina. Neuroretinal function in healthy persons genetically susceptible to AMD may be a useful additional early biomarker (in combination with genetics) before there is clinical manifestation.

Using optical coherence tomography to assess corneoscleral morphology after soft contact lens wear

Purpose. To evaluate the use of optical coherence tomography (OCT) to assess the effect of different soft contact lenses on corneoscleral morphology. Methods. Ten subjects had anterior segment OCT B-scans taken in the morning and again after six hours of soft contact lens wear. For each subject, three different contact lenses were used in the right eye on non-consecutive days, including a hydrogel sphere, a silicone hydrogel sphere and a silicone hydrogel toric. After image registration and layer segmentation, analyses were performed of the first hyper-reflective layer (HRL), the epithelial basement membrane (EBL) and the epithelial thickness (HRL to EBL). A root mean square difference (RMSD) of the layer profiles and the thickness change between the morning and afternoon measurements, was used to assess the effect of the contact lens on the corneoscleral morphology. Results. The soft contact lenses had a statistically significant effect on the morphology of the anterior segment layers (p <0.001). The average amounts of change for the three lenses (average RMSD values) for the corneal region were lower (3.93±1.95 µm for the HRL and 4.02±2.14 µm for the EBL) than those measured in the limbal/scleral region (11.24±6.21 µm for the HRL and 12.61±6.42 µm for the EBL). Similarly, averaged across the three lenses, the RMSD in epithelial thickness was lower in the cornea (2.84±0.84 µm) than the limbal/scleral (5.47±1.71 µm) region. Post-hoc analysis showed that ocular surface changes were significantly smaller with the silicone hydrogel sphere lens than both the silicone hydrogel toric (p<0.005) and hydrogel sphere (p<0.02) for the combined HRL and EBL data. Conclusions. In this preliminary study, we have shown that soft contact lenses can produce small but significant changes in the morphology of the limbal/scleral region and that OCT technology is useful in assessing these changes. The clinical significance of these changes is yet to be determined.

Partial rectification of the plasmon-induced electrical tunnel current in discontinuous thin gold film at optical frequency

The effect of plasmonoscillations, induced by pulsed laserirradiation, on the DC tunnel current between islands in a discontinuous thin goldfilm is studied. The tunnel current is found to be strongly enhanced by partial rectification of the plasmon-induced AC tunnel currents flowing between adjacent gold islands. The DC tunnel current enhancement is found to increase approximately linearly with the laser intensity and the applied DC bias voltage. The experimental data can be well described by an electron tunnelling model which takes the plasmon-induced AC voltage into account. Thermal heating seems not to contribute to the tunnel current enhancement.

Structural, electronic, and optical properties of wurtzite and rocksalt InN under pressure

Structural stability, electronic, and optical properties of InN under high pressure are studied using the first-principles calculations. The lattice constants and electronic band structure are found consistent with the available experimental and theoretical values. The pressure of the wurtzite-to-rocksalt structural transition is 13.4 GPa, which is in an excellent agreement with the most recent experimental values. The optical characteristics reproduce the experimental data thus justifying the feasibility of our theoretical predictions of the optical properties of InN at high pressures.