Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

When and how to treat pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacterial diseases

Nontuberculous mycobacteria are ubiquitous environmental organisms that have been recognised as a cause of pulmonary infection for over 50 years. Traditionally patients have had underlying risk factors for development of disease; however the proportion of apparently immunocompetent patients involved appears to be rising. Not all patients culture-positive for mycobacteria will have progressive disease, making the diagnosis difficult, though criteria to aid in this process are available. The two main forms of disease are cavitary disease (usually involving the upper lobes) and fibronodular bronchiectasis (predominantly middle and lingular lobes). For patients with disease, combination antibiotic therapy for 12-24 months is generally required for successful treatment, and this may be accompanied by drug intolerances and side effects. Published success rates range from 30-82%. As the progression of disease is variable, for some patients, attention to pulmonary hygiene and underlying diseases without immediate antimycobacterial therapy may be more appropriate. Surgery can be a useful adjunct, though is associated with risks. Randomised controlled trials in well described patients would provide stronger evidence-based data to guide therapy of NTM lung diseases, and thus are much needed.

Higher-Order spectra of nonlinear polynomial models for Chua's circuit

Polynomial models are shown to simulate accurately the quadratic and cubic nonlinear interactions (e.g. higher-order spectra) of time series of voltages measured in Chua's circuit. For circuit parameters resulting in a spiral attractor, bispectra and trispectra of the polynomial model are similar to those from the measured time series, suggesting that the individual interactions between triads and quartets of Fourier components that govern the process dynamics are modeled accurately. For parameters that produce the double-scroll attractor, both measured and modeled time series have small bispectra, but nonzero trispectra, consistent with higher-than-second order nonlinearities dominating the chaos.

Determination of stress-strain characteristics of railhead steel using image analysis

True stress-strain curve of railhead steel is required to investigate the behaviour of railhead under wheel loading through elasto-plastic Finite Element (FE) analysis. To reduce the rate of wear, the railhead material is hardened through annealing and quenching. The Australian standard rail sections are not fully hardened and hence suffer from non-uniform distribution of the material property; usage of average properties in the FE modelling can potentially induce error in the predicted plastic strains. Coupons obtained at varying depths of the railhead were, therefore, tested under axial tension and the strains were measured using strain gauges as well as an image analysis technique, known as the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The head hardened steel exhibit existence of three distinct zones of yield strength; the yield strength as the ratio of the average yield strength provided in the standard (σyr=780MPa) and the corresponding depth as the ratio of the head hardened zone along the axis of symmetry are as follows: (1.17 σyr, 20%), (1.06 σyr, 20%- 80%) and (0.71 σyr, > 80%). The stress-strain curves exhibit limited plastic zone with fracture occurring at strain less than 0.1.

Respiratory health effects of diesel particulate matter

Particulate matter (PM) emissions involve a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles suspended in a gas, where it is noted that PM emissions from diesel engines are a major contributor to the ambient air pollution problem. Whilst epidemiological studies have shown a link between increased ambient PM emissions and respiratory morbidity and mortality, studies of this design are not able to identify the PM constituents responsible for driving adverse respiratory health effects. This review explores in detail the physico-chemical properties of diesel particulate matter (DPM), and identifies the constituents of this pollution source that are responsible for the development of respiratory disease. In particular, this review shows that the DPM surface area and adsorbed organic compounds play a significant role in manifesting chemical and cellular processes that if sustained can lead to the development of adverse respiratory health effects. The mechanisms of injury involved included: inflammation, innate and acquired immunity, and oxidative stress. Understanding the mechanisms of lung injury from DPM will enhance efforts to protect at-risk individuals from the harmful respiratory effects of air pollutants.

Early time course of Akt phosphorylation after endurance and resistance exercise

Purpose The aim of this study was to determine the early time course of exercise-induced signaling after divergent contractile activity associated with resistance and endurance exercise. Methods Sixteen male subjects were randomly assigned to either a cycling (CYC; n = 8, 60 min, 70% V?O2peak) or resistance (REX; n = 8, 8×5 leg extension, 80% one-repetition maximum, 3-min recovery) exercise group. Serial muscle biopsies were obtained from vastus lateralis at rest before, immediately after, and after 15, 30, and 60 min of passive recovery to determine early signaling responses after exercise. Results There were comparable increases from rest in AktThr308/Ser473 and mTORSer2448 phosphorylation during the postexercise time course that peaked 30-60 min after both CYC and REX (P<0.05). There were also similar patterns in p70S6K Thr389 and 4E-BP1Thr37/46 phosphorylation, but a greater magnitude of effect was observed for REX and CYC, respectively (P<0.05). However, AMPKThr172 phosphorylation was only significantly elevated after CYC (P<0.05), and we observed divergent responses for glycogen synthaseSer641 and AS160 phosphorylation that were enhanced after CYC but not REX (P<0.05). Conclusions We show a similar time course for Akt-mTOR-S6K phosphorylation during the initial 60-min recovery period after divergent contractile stimuli. Conversely, enhanced phosphorylation status of proteins that promote glucose transport and glycogen synthesis only occurred after endurance exercise. Our results indicate that endurance and resistance exercise initiate translational signaling, but high-load, low-repetition contractile activity failed to promote phosphorylation of pathways regulating glucose metabolism.

Development of a children's acute cough specific quality of life questionnaire (Pac-Qol)

The high burden of parental concern in children with chronic cough has been well documented. Acute cough in children (lasting less than 2 weeks) also has a significant impact on families, reflected by the number of doctor visits for cough. Currently there is no validated acute cough specific quality of life (QOL) measure for children. The objective of this study is to develop and validate an acute cough specific QOL questionnaire (PAC-QOL) for paediatric use. Here we present our data on item selection. Methods Two independent focus groups were conducted to determine relevant items. Parents discussed the impact of their child’s current or previous episodes of acute cough on their child, themselves and their family functioning. Transcripts were analyzed to determine whether discussions had reached an item saturation point. Items were also compared against our previously validated parent-centred children’s chronic cough specific QOL questionnaire (PC-QOL), which was used as a model. The newly developed acute cough specific QOL questionnaire is designed to assess the level of frequency of parents’ feelings and worry related to their child’s acute cough, using a 24-h time-point reference. Results Newly identified acute cough specific items include parental worry around whether or not they should take their child to a doctor or emergency department, and frequency of seeking assistance from friends and family. Conclusions While there are similarities between items identified for both acute and chronic cough, there are distinct features. Further data will be collected for item reduction and validation of this children’s acute cough specific QOL questionnaire.

Development of Contact Lenses from a Biomaterial Point of View – Materials, Manufacture, and Clinical Application

Rigid lenses, which were originally made from glass (between 1888 and 1940) and later from polymethyl methacrylate or silicone acrylate materials, are uncomfortable to wear and are now seldom fitted to new patients. Contact lenses became a popular mode of ophthalmic refractive error correction following the discovery of the first hydrogel material – hydroxyethyl methacrylate – by Czech chemist Otto Wichterle in 1960. To satisfy the requirements for ocular biocompatibility, contact lenses must be transparent and optically stable (for clear vision), have a low elastic modulus (for good comfort), have a hydrophilic surface (for good wettability), and be permeable to certain metabolites, especially oxygen, to allow for normal corneal metabolism and respiration during lens wear. A major breakthrough in respect of the last of these requirements was the development of silicone hydrogel soft lenses in 1999 and techniques for making the surface hydrophilic. The vast majority of contact lenses distributed worldwide are mass-produced using cast molding, although spin casting is also used. These advanced mass-production techniques have facilitated the frequent disposal of contact lenses, leading to improvements in ocular health and fewer complications. More than one-third of all soft contact lenses sold today are designed to be discarded daily (i.e., ‘daily disposable’ lenses).

Muramidases found in the foregut microbiome of the Tammar wallaby can direct cell aggregation and biofilm formation

We describe here the role of muramidases present in clones of metagenomic DNA that result in cell aggregation and biofilm formation by Escherichia coli. The metagenomic clones were obtained from uncultured Lachnospiraceae-affiliated bacteria resident in the foregut microbiome of the Tammar wallaby. One of these fosmid clones (p49C2) was chosen for more detailed studies and a variety of genetic methods were used to delimit the region responsible for the phenotype to an open reading frame of 1425 bp. Comparative sequence analysis with other fosmid clones giving rise to the same phenotype revealed the presence of muramidase homologues with the same modular composition. Phylogenetic analysis of the fosmid sequence data assigned these fosmid inserts to recently identified, but uncultured, phylogroups of Lachnospiraceae believed to be numerically dominant in the foregut microbiome of the Tammar wallaby. The muramidase is a modular protein containing putative N-acetylmuramoyl--alanine amidase and an endo-β-N-acetylglucosaminidase catalytic module, with a similar organization and functional properties to some Staphylococcal autolysins that also confer adhesive properties and biofilm formation. We also show here that the cloned muramidases result in the production of extracellular DNA, which appears to be the key for biofilm formation and autoaggregation. Collectively, these findings suggest that biofilm formation and cell aggregation in gut microbiomes might occur via the concerted action of carbohydrate-active enzymes and the production of extracellular DNA to serve as a biofilm scaffold.

Echolocation call production during aerial and terrestrial locomotion by New Zealand's enigmatic lesser short-tailed bat, Mystacina tuberculata

Linkage of echolocation call production with contraction of flight muscles has been suggested to reduce the energetic cost of flight with echolocation, such that the overall cost is approximately equal to that of flight alone. However, the pattern of call production with limb movement in terrestrially agile bats has never been investigated. We used synchronised high-speed video and audio recordings to determine patterns of association between echolocation call production and limb motion by Mystacina tuberculata Gray 1843 as individuals walked and flew, respectively. Results showed that there was no apparent linkage between call production and limb motion when bats walked. When in flight, two calls were produced per wingbeat, late in the downstroke and early in the upstroke. When bats walked, calls were produced at a higher rate, but at a slightly lower intensity, compared with bats in flight. These results suggest that M. tuberculata do not attempt to reduce the cost of terrestrial locomotion and call production through biomechanical linkage. They also suggest that the pattern of linkage seen when bats are in flight is not universal and that energetic savings cannot necessarily be explained by contraction of muscles associated with the downstroke alone.

The long and short of it: branch lengths and the problem of placing the New Zealand short-tailed bat.

The taxonomic position of the endemic New Zealand bat genus Mystacina has vexed systematists ever since its erection in 1843. Over the years the genus has been linked with many microchiropteran families and superfamilies. Most recent classifications place it in the Vespertilionoidea, although some immunological evidence links it with the Noctilionoidea (=Phyllostomoidea). We have sequenced 402 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene for M. tuberculata (Gray in Dieffenbach, 1843), and using both our own and published DNA sequences for taxa in both superfamilies, we applied different tree reconstruction methods to find the appropriate phylogeny and different methods of estimating confidence in the parts of the tree. All methods strongly support the classification of Mystacina in the Noctilionoidea. Spectral analysis suggests that parsimony analysis may be misleading for Mystacina's precise placement within the Noctilionoidea because of its long terminal branch. Analyses not susceptible to long-branch attraction suggest that the Mystacinidae is a sister family to the Phyllostomidae. Dating the divergence times between the different taxa suggests that the extant chiropteran families radiated around and shortly after the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary. We discuss the biogeographical implications of classifying Mystacina within the Noctilionoidea and contrast our result with those classifications placing Mystacina in the Vespertilionoidea, concluding that evidence for the latter is weak.

The Long and Short of It: Branch Lengths and the Problem of Placing the New Zealand Short-Tailed Bat, Mystacina

The taxonomic position of the endemic New Zealand bat genus Mystacina has vexed systematists ever since its erection in 1843. Over the years the genus has been linked with many microchiropteran families and superfamilies. Most recent classifications place it in the Vespertilionoidea, although some immunological evidence links it with the Noctilionoidea (=Phyllostomoidea). We have sequenced 402 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene for M. tuberculata (Gray in Dieffenbach, 1843), and using both our own and published DNA sequences for taxa in both superfamilies, we applied different tree reconstruction methods to find the appropriate phylogeny and different methods of estimating confidence in the parts of the tree. All methods strongly support the classification of Mystacina in the Noctilionoidea. Spectral analysis suggests that parsimony analysis may be misleading for Mystacina's precise placement within the Noctilionoidea because of its long terminal branch. Analyses not susceptible to long-branch attraction suggest that the Mystacinidae is a sister family to the Phyllostomidae. Dating the divergence times between the different taxa suggests that the extant chiropteran families radiated around and shortly after the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. We discuss the biogeographical implications of classifying Mystacina within the Noctilionoidea and contrast our result with those classifications placing Mystacina in the Vespertilionoidea, concluding that evidence for the latter is weak.

Origins of Australian Football: Victoria's Early History. Volume 3: Covert 'Professionalism': The Power of the Wealthy Clubs 1886 to 1890

This volume continues the story of football in Marvellous Melbourne during the 1880s. At this time the VFA continued to expand as Melbourne’s boom continued apace. In 1886 Port Melbourne, Prahran, St Kilda, Footscray and South Williamstown joined the competition, and the Ballarat clubs Ballarat, Ballarat Imperial and South Ballarat were also contending for the VFA premiership. In 1886 matches were divided into four quarters, goal umpires waved two flags to announce a goal, and time clocks and bells were employed to mark the end of quarters. Victoria also played inter-colonial matches against New South Wales, Tasmania and South Australia. VFA secretary T.S. Marshall was at the forefront of fighting the game’s turn towards professionalism, but although it was illegal to pay players, the practice continued. The period 1886 to 1890 also set the stage for the eventual formation of the Victorian Football League, for by the end of the 1880s the Victorian Football Association had become in effect a two-tier competition. The most popular clubs in the VFA, South Melbourne, Geelong, Carlton and Essendon collected the lion’s share of the gate money, which they used to build their wealth and entrench their position as the dominant Victorian teams. The lower tier clubs had to make do with paltry gate money and season fixtures that advantaged the strong clubs. In these fixtures the strong clubs elected to play each other first to increase their gate money, and only deemed to play the poorer clubs at the start of the season. This led to an increasing divide between the VFA’s rich and poor, and by 1890 South Williamstown and Prahran merged with Williamstown and St Kilda respectively, University dropped out of senior ranks, and the Ballarat clubs were excluded from competing for the VFA premiership, which left 12 senior clubs until Collingwood’s emergence in 1892. At this time, no team was as powerful as South Melbourne, which experienced the greatest success in the club’s VFA and VFL history when it collected triple premiership crowns in 1888, 1889, and 1890. South Melbourne was a most ambitious club and spearheaded the move towards professionalism, although this could not be made public. The fine teams it produced at this time contained some of the greatest players of the era, such as Peter Burns, “Sonny” Elms and “Dinny” McKay, and it looked after players with health insurance, jobs, inter-colonial trips, and other incentives. Geelong’s premiership in 1886 was perhaps its greatest triumph, but this success was followed by a premiership drought that would last for 39 years. Carlton remained one of Victorian football’s power clubs, and after securing the premiership in 1887 continued to compete for top honours. As always, the game became ever more popular and world record crowds of over 30,000 attended matches between South Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong and Essendon.

Atmospheric pressure gas plasma-induced colorectal cancer cell death is mediated by Nox2-ASK1 apoptosis pathways and oxidative stress is mitigated by Srx-Nrf2 anti-oxidant system

Atmospheric pressure gas plasma (AGP) generates reactive oxygen species (ROS) that induce apoptosis in cultured cancer cells. The majority of cancer cells develop a ROS-scavenging anti-oxidant system regulated by Nrf2, which confers resistance to ROS-mediated cancer cell death. Generation of ROS is involved in the AGP-induced cancer cell death of several colorectal cancer cells (Caco2, HCT116 and SW480) by activation of ASK1-mediated apoptosis signaling pathway without affecting control cells (human colonic sub-epithelial myofibroblasts; CO18, human fetal lung fibroblast; MRC5 and fetal human colon; FHC). However, the identity of an oxidase participating in AGP-induced cancer cell death is unknown. Here, we report that AGP up-regulates the expression of Nox2 (NADPH oxidase) to produce ROS. RNA interference designed to target Nox2 effectively inhibits the AGP-induced ROS production and cancer cell death. In some cases both colorectal cancer HT29 and control cells showed resistance to AGP treatment. Compared to AGP-sensitive Caco2 cells, HT29 cells show a higher basal level of the anti-oxidant system transcriptional regulator Nrf2 and its target protein sulfiredoxin (Srx) which are involved in cellular redox homeostasis. Silencing of both Nrf2 and Srx sensitized HT29 cells, leads to ROS overproduction and decreased cell viability. This indicates that in HT29 cells, Nrf2/Srx axis is a protective factor against AGP-induced oxidative stress. The inhibition of Nrf2/Srx signaling should be considered as a central target in drug-resistant colorectal cancer treatments.

Reducing falls in hospital through education to change patient and staff behaviour: A stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled effectiveness trial

Background: Falls remain the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, particularly geriatric rehabilitation wards. Randomised trials reducing fall injuries in hospitals have been elusive. Our previous randomised trial (n = 1206) demonstrated that multimedia education with physiotherapist falls educator support reduced falls among patients with higher cognition levels, but this benefit was offset by a potential increase in falls rates among patients with poor cognition. In the previous trial, hospital staff were blinded to the allocation of individual patients, and only delivered usual care.