Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy

The standard Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition forces aggregate demand and supply shocks to be orthogonal. However, this assumption is problematic for a nation with an inflation target. The very notion of inflation targeting means that monetary policy reacts to changes in aggregate supply. This paper employs a modification of the BQ procedure that allows for correlated shifts in aggregate supply and demand. It is found that shocks to Australian aggregate demand and supply are highly correlated. The estimated shifts in the aggregate demand and supply curves are then used to measure the effects of inflation targeting on the Australian inflation rate and level of GDP.

Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].

Social Impact of Mining Survey : Aggregate Results Queensland Communities

This is the final report from a study into the social impact of mining in Queensland.

Aggregate distance based clustering using Fibonacci Series -FIBCLUS

This paper proposes an innovative instance similarity based evaluation metric that reduces the search map for clustering to be performed. An aggregate global score is calculated for each instance using the novel idea of Fibonacci series. The use of Fibonacci numbers is able to separate the instances effectively and, in hence, the intra-cluster similarity is increased and the inter-cluster similarity is decreased during clustering. The proposed FIBCLUS algorithm is able to handle datasets with numerical, categorical and a mix of both types of attributes. Results obtained with FIBCLUS are compared with the results of existing algorithms such as k-means, x-means expected maximization and hierarchical algorithms that are widely used to cluster numeric, categorical and mix data types. Empirical analysis shows that FIBCLUS is able to produce better clustering solutions in terms of entropy, purity and F-score in comparison to the above described existing algorithms.

The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

A multi-stage history for carbonaceous material in extraterrestrial chondritic porous aggregate W7029*A and a new cosmothermometer

A new set of primitive extraterrestrial materials collected in the Earth's stratosphere include Chondritic Porous Aggregates (CPA's) [1]. CPAs have a complex and variable mineralogy [1-3] that include 'organic compounds' [4,5] and poorly graphitised carbon (PGC)[6]. This study presents a continuation of our detailed Analytical Electron Microscope study on carbon-rich CPA W7029*A from the JSC Cosmic Dust Collection. This CPA is an uncontaminated sample that survived atmospheric entry without appreciable alteration [7] and which contains ~44% carbonaceous material. The carbonaceous composition of selected particles was confirmed by Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy and Selected Area Electron Diffraction (SAED). Possible carbonaceous contaminants introduced by specimen preparation techniques are easily recognised from indigenous CPA carbon particles [8] and do not bias our interpretations.

Diagenesis in interplanetary dust - chondritic porous aggregate w7029-star-a

In previous Analytical Electron Microscope studies of extraterrestrial Chondritic Porous Aggregate (CPA) W7029* A, we have reported on the presence of layer silicates(Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984a; Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1983) and metal oxides (Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984a; Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1984). We present here a continuation ofthis detailed mineralogical study and propose a scenario which may account for the variety and types of phases observed in this CPA. At least 50% ofCPA W7029*A is carbonaceous material, primarily poorly graphitised carbon (POC) with morphologies similar to POC in acid residues of carbonaceous chondrites (Smith and Busek, 1981; Lumpkin, 1983). The basal spacing of graphite in CPA W7029*A ranges from 3.47-3.52 A and compares with doo, of graphite in the Allende residues (Smith and Buseck, 1981; Lumpkin, 1983). Low-temperature phases comprise - 20% of CPA W7029*A and include layer silicates, Bi,O" a-FeOOH(Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984a; Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1983), BaSO.,.Ti.O, plates, pentlandite-violarite and bornite. Clusters of Mg-rich olivine and pyroxene make up - 12% of the aggregate...

Assessment of recycled concrete aggregate for road base and sub-base

Population increase and economic developments can lead to construction as well as demolition of infrastructures such as buildings, bridges, roads, etc and used concrete is the main waste product of them. Recycling of waste concrete to obtain the recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) for base and/or sub-base materials in road construction is a foremost application to be promoted to gain economical and sustainable benefits. As the mortar, bricks, glass and asphalt present in different constituents in RCA, it exhibits inconsistent properties and performance. In this study, six different types of RCA samples were subjected classification tests such as particle size distribution, plasticity, compaction test and California Bearing Ratio (CBR). Results were compared with those of the standard road materials used in Queensland, Australia and found that ‘RM1-100/RM3-0’ and ‘RM1-80/RM3-20’ samples are sitting in the margin of the minimum required specifications of base materials while others are lower than that.

Layered silicates in Chondritic Porous Aggregate W7029*A : a case of primary growth

An important subset of extraterrestrial particles that reach the Earth's stratosphere include the so-called Chondritic Porous Aggregates (CPA's) [1-3]. In general, CPA's have a fluffy morphology and consist of numerous (>104)subparticles that are often <100A in size [4]. Mineral species in CPA's include Mg-rich pyroxene and olivine, Fe- and (Fe,Ni)-sulphides, taenite, Fe,Ni-carbides, magnetite, Ti-metal, a Bi-phase (metal or oxide), and variable amounts of carbonaceous material [1, 5-7]. Hydrated silicates are rare in CPA's and are limited to aggregates that have not been severely altered (thermo-metamorphosed) during atmospheric entry [8]. The presence of hydrated silicates in one cosmic dust particle was established by X-ray diffraction [2] and has been inferred in others by infra-red spectroscopy [8]. If CPA's are cometary, their mineralogy and morphology suggest that at least two episodes of aggregation occurred and that variations in porosity may be related to local differences in ice-to-dust ratio [3].

Water absorption, permeability, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration of lightweight aggregate concrete

This paper presents an experimental study to evaluate effect of cumulative lightweight aggregate (LWA) content (including lightweight sand) in concrete [water/cement ratio (w/c) = 0.38] on its water absorption, water permeability, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration. Rapid chloride penetrability test (ASTM C 1202), rapid migration test (NT Build 492), and salt ponding test (AASHTO T 259) were conducted to evaluate the concrete resistance to chloride-ion penetration. The results were compared with those of a cement paste and a control normal weight aggregate concrete (NWAC) with the same w/c and a NWAC (w/c = 0.54) with 28-day compressive strength similar to some of the lightweight aggregate concrete (LWAC). Results indicate that although the total charge passed, migration coefficient, and diffusion coefficient of the LWAC were not significantly different from those of NWAC with the same w/c of 0.38, resistance of the LWAC to chloride penetration decreased with increase in the cumulative LWA content in the concretes. The water penetration depth under pressure and water sorptivity showed, in general, similar trends. The LWAC with only coarse LWA had similar water sorptivity, water permeability coefficient, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration compared to NWAC with similar w/c. The LWAC had lower water sorptivity, water permeability and higher resistance to chloride-ion penetration than the NWAC with similar 28-day strength but higher w/c. Both the NWAC and LWAC had lower sorptivity and higher resistance to chloride-ion penetration than the cement paste with similar w/c.

Effect of cumulative lightweight aggregate volume in concrete on its resistance to chloride-ion penetration

This paper presents an experimental study on the resistance of lightweight aggregate concretes to chloride-ion penetration in comparison to that of normal weight concrete of similar w/c. Salt ponding test (based on AASHTO T 259), rapid chloride permeability test (ASTM C 1202) and rapid migration test (NT Build 492) were carried out to evaluate the concrete resistance to the chloride-ion penetration. Results indicate that in general the resistance of the LWAC to the chloride-ion penetration was in the same order as that of NWAC of similar w/c. However, the increase in cumulative LWA volume and the incorporation of finer LWA particles led to higher charge passed, migration coefficient, and diffusion coefficient. Since the LWACs had lower 28-day compressive strength compared with that of the NWAC of similar w/c, the LWACs may have equal or better resistance to the chloride-ion penetration compared with the NWAC of equivalent strength. The trend of the resistance of concretes to chloride-ion penetration determined by the three test methods was reasonably consistent although there were some discrepancies due to different test methods.