Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

From words to models : a bibliometric approach to designing agent-based models in entrepreneurship

Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) may fit well with entrepreneurship research and practice because the core concepts and basic premises of entrepreneurship coincide with the characteristics of ABMS. However, it is difficult to find cases where ABMS is applied to entrepreneurship research. To apply ABMS to entrepreneurship and organization studies, designing a conceptual model is important; thus to effectively design a conceptual model, various mixed method approaches are being attempted. As a new mixed method approach to ABMS, this study proposes a bibliometric approach to designing agent based models, which establishes and analyzes a domain corpus. This study presents an example on the venture creation process using the bibliometric approach. This example shows us that the results of the multi-agent simulations on the venturing process based on the bibliometric approach are close to each nation’s surveyed data on the venturing activities. In conclusion, by the bibliometric approach proposed in this study, all the agents and the agents’ behaviors related to a phenomenon can be extracted effectively, and a conceptual model for ABMS can be designed with the agents and their behaviors. This study contributes to the entrepreneurship and organization studies by promoting the application of ABMS.

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

Compositional agent-based models for electricity distribution networks

This thesis presents a novel approach to building large-scale agent-based models of networked physical systems using a compositional approach to provide extensibility and flexibility in building the models and simulations. A software framework (MODAM - MODular Agent-based Model) was implemented for this purpose, and validated through simulations. These simulations allow assessment of the impact of technological change on the electricity distribution network looking at the trajectories of electricity consumption at key locations over many years.

MODAM: A MODular Agent-based Modelling framework

Designing the smart grid requires combining varied models. As their number increases, so does the complexity of the software. Having a well thought architecture for the software then becomes crucial. This paper presents MODAM, a framework designed to combine agent-based models in a flexible and extensible manner, using well known software engineering design solutions (OSGi specification [1] and Eclipse plugins [2]). Details on how to build a modular agent-based model for the smart grid are given in this paper, illustrated by an example for a small network.

Agent-based simulation as a component of mixed methods in entrepreneurship research

As a new research method supplementing the existing qualitative and quantitative approaches, agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) may fit well within the entrepreneurship field because the core concepts and basic premises of entrepreneurship coincide with the characteristics of ABMS (McKelvey, 2004; Yang & Chandra, 2013). Agent-based simulation is a simulation method based on agent-based models. The agentbased models are composed of heterogeneous agents and their behavioural rules. By repeatedly carrying out agent-based simulations on a computer, the simulations reproduce each agent’s behaviour, their interactive process, and the emerging macroscopic phenomenon according to the flow of time. Using agent-based simulations, researchers may investigate temporal or dynamic effects of each agent’s behaviours.

Quantifying spatial structure in experimental observations and agent-based simulations using pair-correlation functions

We define a pair-correlation function that can be used to characterize spatiotemporal patterning in experimental images and snapshots from discrete simulations. Unlike previous pair-correlation functions, the pair-correlation functions developed here depend on the location and size of objects. The pair-correlation function can be used to indicate complete spatial randomness, aggregation or segregation over a range of length scales, and quantifies spatial structures such as the shape, size and distribution of clusters. Comparing pair-correlation data for various experimental and simulation images illustrates their potential use as a summary statistic for calibrating discrete models of various physical processes.

Agent-based model of passenger flows in airport terminals

Passenger flow studies in airport terminals have shown consistent statistical relationships between airport spatial layout and pedestrian movement, facilitating prediction of movement from terminal designs. However, these studies are done at an aggregate level and do not incorporate how individual passengers make decisions at a microscopic level. Therefore, they do not explain the formation of complex movement flows. In addition, existing models mostly focus on standard airport processing procedures such as immigration and security, but seldom consider discretionary activities of passengers, and thus are not able to truly describe the full range of passenger flows within airport terminals. As the route-choice decision-making of passengers involves many uncertain factors within the airport terminals, the mechanisms to fulfill the capacity of managing the route-choice have proven difficult to acquire and quantify. Could the study of cognitive factors of passengers (i.e. human mental preferences of deciding which on-airport facility to use) be useful to tackle these issues? Assuming the movement in virtual simulated environments can be analogous to movement in real environments, passenger behaviour dynamics can be similar to those generated in virtual experiments. Three levels of dynamics have been devised for motion control: the localised field, tactical level, and strategic level. A localised field refers to basic motion capabilities, such as walking speed, direction and avoidance of obstacles. The other two fields represent cognitive route-choice decision-making. This research views passenger flow problems via a "bottom-up approach", regarding individual passengers as independent intelligent agents who can behave autonomously and are able to interact with others and the ambient environment. In this regard, passenger flow formation becomes an emergent phenomenon of large numbers of passengers interacting with others. In the thesis, first, the passenger flow in airport terminals was investigated. Discretionary activities of passengers were integrated with standard processing procedures in the research. The localised field for passenger motion dynamics was constructed by a devised force-based model. Next, advanced traits of passengers (such as their desire to shop, their comfort with technology and their willingness to ask for assistance) were formulated to facilitate tactical route-choice decision-making. The traits consist of quantified measures of mental preferences of passengers when they travel through airport terminals. Each category of the traits indicates a decision which passengers may take. They were inferred through a Bayesian network model by analysing the probabilities based on currently available data. Route-choice decision-making was finalised by calculating corresponding utility results based on those probabilities observed. Three sorts of simulation outcomes were generated: namely, queuing length before checkpoints, average dwell time of passengers at service facilities, and instantaneous space utilisation. Queuing length reflects the number of passengers who are in a queue. Long queues no doubt cause significant delay in processing procedures. The dwell time of each passenger agent at the service facilities were recorded. The overall dwell time of passenger agents at typical facility areas were analysed so as to demonstrate portions of utilisation in the temporal aspect. For the spatial aspect, the number of passenger agents who were dwelling within specific terminal areas can be used to estimate service rates. All outcomes demonstrated specific results by typical simulated passenger flows. They directly reflect terminal capacity. The simulation results strongly suggest that integrating discretionary activities of passengers makes the passenger flows more intuitive, observing probabilities of mental preferences by inferring advanced traits make up an approach capable of carrying out tactical route-choice decision-making. On the whole, the research studied passenger flows in airport terminals by an agent-based model, which investigated individual characteristics of passengers and their impact on psychological route-choice decisions of passengers. Finally, intuitive passenger flows in airport terminals were able to be realised in simulation.

Impact of passenger group dynamics on an airport evacuation process using an agent-based model

The safety of passengers is a major concern to airports. In the event of crises, having an effective and efficient evacuation process in place can significantly aid in enhancing passenger safety. Hence, it is necessary for airport operators to have an in-depth understanding of the evacuation process of their airport terminal. Although evacuation models have been used in studying pedestrian behaviour for decades, little research has been done in considering the evacuees’ group dynamics and the complexity of the environment. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger evacuation process. Different exits were allocated to passengers based on their location and security level. The simulation results show that the evacuation time can be influenced by passenger group dynamics. This model also provides a convenient way to design airport evacuation strategy and examine its efficiency. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Agent-based modelling of aircraft boarding methods

We implemented six different boarding strategies (Wilma, Steffen, Reverse Pyramid, Random, Blocks and By letter) in order to investigate boarding times for Boeing 777 and Airbus 380 aircraft. We also introduce three new boarding methods to find the optimum boarding strategy. Our models explicitly simulate the behaviour of groups of people travelling together and we explicitly simulate the timing to store their luggage as part of the boarding process. Results from the simulation demonstrates the Reverse Pyramid method is the best boarding method for Boeing 777, and the Steffen method is the best boarding method for Airbus 380. For the new suggested boarding methods, aisle first boarding method is the best boarding strategy for Boeing 777 and row arrangement method is the best boarding strategy for Airbus 380. Overall best boarding strategy is aisle first boarding method for Boeing 777 and Steffen method for Airbus 380.

Analysis of passenger group behaviour and its impact on passenger flow using an agent-based model

Group interaction within crowds is a common phenomenon and has great influence on pedestrian behaviour. This paper investigates the impact of passenger group dynamics using an agent-based simulation method for the outbound passenger process at airports. Unlike most passenger-flow models that treat passengers as individual agents, the proposed model additionally incorporates their group dynamics as well. The simulation compares passenger behaviour at airport processes and discretionary services under different group formations. Results from experiments (both qualitative and quantitative) show that incorporating group attributes, in particular, the interactions with fellow travellers and wavers can have significant influence on passengers activity preference as well as the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model also provides a convenient way to investigate the effectiveness of airport space design and service allocations, which can contribute to positive passenger experiences. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Model refinement through high-performance computing: an agent-based HIV example

Background Recent advances in Immunology highlighted the importance of local properties on the overall progression of HIV infection. In particular, the gastrointestinal tract is seen as a key area during early infection, and the massive cell depletion associated with it may influence subsequent disease progression. This motivated the development of a large-scale agent-based model. Results Lymph nodes are explicitly implemented, and considerations on parallel computing permit large simulations and the inclusion of local features. The results obtained show that GI tract inclusion in the model leads to an accelerated disease progression, during both the early stages and the long-term evolution, compared to a theoretical, uniform model. Conclusions These results confirm the potential of treatment policies currently under investigation, which focus on this region. They also highlight the potential of this modelling framework, incorporating both agent-based and network-based components, in the context of complex systems where scaling-up alone does not result in models providing additional insights.

Agent-based modelling of worker interactions and related impacts on workplace dynamics

This study uses agent based modelling to simulate the worker interactions within a workplace and to investigate how the interactions can have impact on the workplace dynamics. Two new models (Bounded Confidence with Bias model and Relative Agreement with Bias model) are built based on the theoretical foundation of two existing models. A new factor, namely bias, is added into the new models which raises several issues to be studied.