An event-based traffic flow model for traffic control at railway junctions

This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.

Hydrogeological framework, conceptual and numerical groundwater flow model of Laidley Creek catchment, Queensland, Australia

This thesis studies the water resources of Laidley Creek catchment within the Lockyer Valley where groundwater is used for intensive irrigation of crops. A holistic approach was used to consider groundwater within the total water cycle. The project mapped the geology, measured stream flows and groundwater levels, and analysed the chemistry of the waters. These data were integrated within a catchment-wide conceptual model, including historic and rainfall records. From this a numerical simulation was produced to test data validity and develop predictions of behaviour, which can support management decisions, particularly in times of variable climate.

5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Learning to avoid indoor obstacles from optical flow

Optical flow (OF) is a powerful motion cue that captures the fusion of two important properties for the task of obstacle avoidance − 3D self-motion and 3D environmental surroundings. The problem of extracting such information for obstacle avoidance is commonly addressed through quantitative techniques such as time-to-contact and divergence, which are highly sensitive to noise in the OF image. This paper presents a new strategy towards obstacle avoidance in an indoor setting, using the combination of quantitative and structural properties of the OF field, coupled with the flexibility and efficiency of a machine learning system.The resulting system is able to effectively control the robot in real-time, avoiding obstacles in familiar and unfamiliar indoor environments, under given motion constraints. Furthermore, through the examination of the networks internal weights, we show how OF properties are being used toward the detection of these indoor obstacles.

Deriving construction features from an IFC model

In recent years, there has been a growing interest from the design and construction community to adopt Building Information Models (BIM). BIM provides semantically-rich information models that explicitly represent both 3D geometric information (e.g., component dimensions), along with non-geometric properties (e.g., material properties). While the richness of design information offered by BIM is evident, there are still tremendous challenges in getting construction-specific information out of BIM, limiting the usability of these models for construction. In this paper, we describe our approach for extracting construction-specific design conditions from a BIM model based on user-defined queries. This approach leverages an ontology of features we are developing to formalize the design conditions that affect construction. Our current implementation analyzes the component geometry and topological relationships between components in a BIM model represented using the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) to identify construction features. We describe the reasoning process implemented to extract these construction features, and provide a critique of the IFC’s to support the querying process. We use examples from two case studies to illustrate the construction features, the querying process, and the challenges involved in deriving construction features from an IFC model.

The use of correspondence analysis to compare major and trace elements for provenance studies of iron-age pottery from the Mngeni river area, South Africa

Provenance studies of iron-age pottery specimens originating from the Mngeni river area in South Africa was carried out by applying XRF spectrometry. A total of sixteen major and trace elements were analysed in a batch of 107 potsherds, excavated from four different archaeological sites in the aforementioned area. A multivariate statistical programme Correspondence Analysis was used in this study to obtain the relevant clustering patterns according to the similarity of the elemental distributions. Differences and similarities in the clusters obtained for the majors and trace elements are discussed.

Age-related trends in urinary excretion of bisphenol A in Australian children and adults : evidence from a pooled sample study using samples of convenience

Bisphenol A (BPA or 4,4’-(propane-2,2-diyl)diphenol) is a chemical intermediate in the production of polycarbonate and epoxy resins, and used in a wide range of applications. BPA has attracted significant attention in the past decade due to its frequency of detection in human populations worldwide, demonstrated animal toxicity and potential impact on human health, particularly during critical periods of development. The aim of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of age-related trends in urinary concentration and to estimate daily excretion of BPA in Australian children (aged (>0 – <5 years) and adults (≥15 – <75 years). This was achieved using 79 samples pooled by age and gender, created from 868 individual samples of convenience collected as part of routine, community-based pathology testing. Total BPA was analyzed using online-SPE-LC-MS/MS and detected in all samples with a range of 0.65 – 265 ng/ml. No significant differences were observed between males and females. A urine flow model was constructed from published values and used to provide an estimate of daily excretion per unit bodyweight for each pooled sample. The daily excretion estimates ranged from 26.2 – 18200 ng/kg-d for children; and 20.1 – 165 ng/kg-d for adults. Urinary concentrations and estimated excretion rates were inversely associated with age, and estimated daily excretion rates in infants and young children were significantly higher than in adults (geometric mean: 107 and 47.0 ng/kg-d, respectively). Higher excretion of BPA in children may be explained by their higher food consumption relative to body weight compared to adults and adolescents, and may also reflect alternative exposure pathways and sources. Keywords: bisphenol A, biomonitoring, children, urine flow, Australia