Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Krylov subspace methods for approximating functions of symmetric positive definite matrices with applications to applied statistics and anomalous diffusion

Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

Urban dynamic origin-destination matrices estimation

The aim of this paper is to explore a new approach to obtain better traffic demand (Origin-Destination, OD matrices) for dense urban networks. From reviewing existing methods, from static to dynamic OD matrix evaluation, possible deficiencies in the approach could be identified: traffic assignment details for complex urban network and lacks in dynamic approach. To improve the global process of traffic demand estimation, this paper is focussing on a new methodology to determine dynamic OD matrices for urban areas characterized by complex route choice situation and high level of traffic controls. An iterative bi-level approach will be used, the Lower level (traffic assignment) problem will determine, dynamically, the utilisation of the network by vehicles using heuristic data from mesoscopic traffic simulator and the Upper level (matrix adjustment) problem will proceed to an OD estimation using optimization Kalman filtering technique. In this way, a full dynamic and continuous estimation of the final OD matrix could be obtained. First results of the proposed approach and remarks are presented.

Mineralized human primary osteoblast matrices as a model system to analyse interactions of prostate cancer cells with the bone microenvironment

Prostate cancer metastasis is reliant on the reciprocal interactions between cancer cells and the bone niche/micro-environment. The production of suitable matrices to study metastasis, carcinogenesis and in particular prostate cancer/bone micro-environment interaction has been limited to specific protein matrices or matrix secreted by immortalised cell lines that may have undergone transformation processes altering signaling pathways and modifying gene or receptor expression. We hypothesize that matrices produced by primary human osteoblasts are a suitable means to develop an in vitro model system for bone metastasis research mimicking in vivo conditions. We have used a decellularized matrix secreted from primary human osteoblasts as a model for prostate cancer function in the bone micro-environment. We show that this collagen I rich matrix is of fibrillar appearance, highly mineralized, and contains proteins, such as osteocalcin, osteonectin and osteopontin, and growth factors characteristic of bone extracellular matrix (ECM). LNCaP and PC3 cells grown on this matrix, adhere strongly, proliferate, and express markers consistent with a loss of epithelial phenotype. Moreover, growth of these cells on the matrix is accompanied by the induction of genes associated with attachment, migration, increased invasive potential, Ca2+ signaling and osteolysis. In summary, we show that growth of prostate cancer cells on matrices produced by primary human osteoblasts mimics key features of prostate cancer bone metastases and thus is a suitable model system to study the tumor/bone micro-environment interaction in this disease.

Osteogenic induction of human bone marrow-derived mesenchymal progenitor cells in novel synthetic polymer-hydrogel matrices

The aim of this project was to investigate the in vitro osteogenic potential of human mesenchymal progenitor cells in novel matrix architectures built by means of a three-dimensional bioresorbable synthetic framework in combination with a hydrogel. Human mesenchymal progenitor cells (hMPCs) were isolated from a human bone marrow aspirate by gradient centrifugation. Before in vitro engineering of scaffold-hMPC constructs, the adipogenic and osteogenic differentiation potential was demonstrated by staining of neutral lipids and induction of bone-specific proteins, respectively. After expansion in monolayer cultures, the cells were enzymatically detached and then seeded in combination with a hydrogel into polycaprolactone (PCL) and polycaprolactone-hydroxyapatite (PCL-HA) frameworks. This scaffold design concept is characterized by novel matrix architecture, good mechanical properties, and slow degradation kinetics of the framework and a biomimetic milieu for cell delivery and proliferation. To induce osteogenic differentiation, the specimens were cultured in an osteogenic cell culture medium and were maintained in vitro for 6 weeks. Cellular distribution and viability within three-dimensional hMPC bone grafts were documented by scanning electron microscopy, cell metabolism assays, and confocal laser microscopy. Secretion of the osteogenic marker molecules type I procollagen and osteocalcin was analyzed by semiquantitative immunocytochemistry assays. Alkaline phosphatase activity was visualized by p-nitrophenyl phosphate substrate reaction. During osteogenic stimulation, hMPCs proliferated toward and onto the PCL and PCL-HA scaffold surfaces and metabolic activity increased, reaching a plateau by day 15. The temporal pattern of bone-related marker molecules produced by in vitro tissue-engineered scaffold-cell constructs revealed that hMPCs differentiated better within the biomimetic matrix architecture along the osteogenic lineage.

In vitro characterization of natural and synthetic dermal matrices cultured with human dermal fibroblasts

The ideal dermal matrix should be able to provide the right biological and physical environment to ensure homogenous cell and extracellular matrix (ECM) distribution, as well as the right size and morphology of the neo-tissue required. Four natural and synthetic 3D matrices were evaluated in vitro as dermal matrices, namely (1) equine collagen foam, TissuFleece®, (2) acellular dermal replacement, Alloderm®, (3) knitted poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (10:90)–poly(-caprolactone) (PLGA–PCL) mesh, (4) chitosan scaffold. Human dermal fibroblasts were cultured on the specimens over 3 weeks. Cell morphology, distribution and viability were assessed by electron microscopy, histology and confocal laser microscopy. Metabolic activity and DNA synthesis were analysed via MTS metabolic assay and [3H]-thymidine uptake, while ECM protein expression was determined by immunohistochemistry. TissuFleece®, Alloderm® and PLGA–PCL mesh supported cell attachment, proliferation and neo-tissue formation. However, TissuFleece® contracted to 10% of the original size while Alloderm® supported cell proliferation predominantly on the surface of the material. PLGA–PCL mesh promoted more homogenous cell distribution and tissue formation. Chitosan scaffolds did not support cell attachment and proliferation. These results demonstrated that physical characteristics including porosity and mechanical stability to withstand cell contraction forces are important in determining the success of a dermal matrix material.

Engineered silk fibroin protein 3D matrices for in vitro tumor model

3D in vitro model systems that are able to mimic the in vivo microenvironment are now highly sought after in cancer research. Antheraea mylitta silk fibroin protein matrices were investigated as potential biomaterial for in vitro tumor modeling. We compared the characteristics of MDA-MB-231 cells on A. mylitta, Bombyx mori silk matrices, Matrigel, and tissue culture plates. The attachment and morphology of the MDA-MB-231 cell line on A. mylitta silk matrices was found to be better than on B. mori matrices and comparable to Matrigel and tissue culture plates. The cells grown in all 3D cultures showed more MMP-9 activity, indicating a more invasive potential. In comparison to B. mori fibroin, A. mylitta fibroin not only provided better cell adhesion, but also improved cell viability and proliferation. Yield coefficient of glucose consumed to lactate produced by cells on 3D A. mylitta fibroin was found to be similar to that of cancer cells in vivo. LNCaP prostate cancer cells were also cultured on 3D A. mylitta fibroin and they grew as clumps in long term culture. The results indicate that A. mylitta fibroin scaffold can provide an easily manipulated microenvironment system to investigate individual factors such as growth factors and signaling peptides, as well as evaluation of anticancer drugs.

Process based synthesis to evaluate design flexibility in airport terminal layout

Flexible design concept is a relatively new trend in airport terminal design which is believed to facilitate the ever changing needs of a terminal. Current architectural design processes become more complex every day because of the introduction of new building technologies where the concept of flexible airport terminal would apparently make the design process even more complex. Previous studies have demonstrated that ever growing aviation industry requires airport terminals to be planned, designed and constructed in such a way that should allow flexibility in design process. In order to adopt the philosophy of ‘design for flexibility’ architects need to address a wide range of differing needs. An appropriate integration of the process models, prior to the airport terminal design process, is expected to uncover the relationships that exist between spatial layout and their corresponding functions. The current paper seeks to develop a way of sharing space adjacency related information obtained from the Business Process Models (BPM) to assist in defining flexible airport terminal layouts. Critical design parameters are briefly investigated at this stage of research whilst reviewing the available design alternatives and an evaluation framework is proposed in the current paper. Information obtained from various design layouts should assist in identifying and defining flexible design matrices allowing architects to interpret and to apply those throughout the lifecycle of the terminal building.

Structural and textural variations in carbonaceous chondrite matrices

Recent studies of C2 carbonaceous chondrite matrices using high resolu­tion transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM)have shown that structural details of the matrix minerals can be imaged [1-4]. The Murchison and Mighei matrices contain minerals having ordered and disordered mixed-layer structures [1,3,4] in addition to chrysotile- and lizardite-type structures [2].