The hyperthermic patient

Concepts used in this chapter include: Thermoregulation:- Thermoregulation refers to the body’s sophisticated, multi-system regulation of core body temperature. This hierarchical system extends from highly thermo-sensitive neurons in the preoptic region of the brain proximate to the rostral hypothalamus, down to the brain stem and spinal cord. Coupled with receptors in the skin and spine, both central and peripheral information on body temperature is integrated to inform and activate the homeostatic mechanisms which maintain our core temperature at 37oC1. Hyperthermia:- An imbalance between the metabolic and external heat accumulated in the body and the loss of heat from the body2. Exertional heat stroke:- A disorder of excessive heat production coupled with insufficient heat dissipation which occurs in un-acclimated individuals who are engaging in over-exertion in hot and humid conditions. This phenomenon includes central nervous system dysfunction and critical dysfunction to all organ systems including renal, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal and hepatic functions. Non-exertional heat stroke:- In contrast to exertional heatstroke as a consequence of high heat production during strenuous exercise, non-exertional heatstroke results from prolonged exposure to high ambient temperature. The elderly, those with chronic health conditions and children are particularly susceptible.3 Rhabdomylosis:- An acute, sometimes fatal disease characterised by destruction of skeletal muscle. In exertional heat stroke, rhabdomylosis occurs in the context of strenuous exercise when mechanical and/or metabolic stress damages the skeletal muscle, causing elevated serum creatine kinease. Associated with this is the potential development of hyperkalemia, myoglobinuria and renal failure. Malignant hyperthermia:- Malignant hyperthermia is “an inherited subclinical myopathy characterised by a hypermetabolic reaction during anaesthesia. The reaction is related to skeletal muscle calcium dysregulation triggered by volatile inhaled anaesthetics and/or succinylcholine.”4 Presentation includes skeletal muscle rigidity, mixed metabolic and respiratory acidosis, tachycardia, hyperpyrexia, rhabdomylosis, hyperkalaemia, elevated serum creatine kinease, multi-organ failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation and death.5

The hypothermic patient

Concepts used in this chapter include: Thermoregulation:- Thermoregulation refers to the body’s sophisticated, multi-system regulation of core body temperature. This hierarchical system extends from highly thermo-sensitive neurons in the preoptic region of the brain proximate to the rostral hypothalamus, down to the brain stem and spinal cord. Coupled with receptors in the skin and spine, both central and peripheral information on body temperature is integrated to inform and activate the homeostatic mechanisms which maintain our core temperature at 37oC.1 Body heat is lost through the skin, via respiration and excretions. The skin is perhaps the most important organ in regulating heat loss. Hyporthermia:- Hypothermia is defined as core body temperature less than 350C and is the result of imbalance between the body’s heat production and heat loss mechanisms. Hypothermia may be accidental, or induced for clinical benefit i.e: neurological protection (therapeutic hypothermia). External environmental conditions are the most common cause of accidental hypothermia, but not the only causes of hypothermia in humans. Other causes include metabolic imbalance; trauma; neurological and infectious disease; and exposure to toxins such as organophosphates. Therapeutic Hypothermia:- In some circumstances, hypothermia can be induced to protect neurological functioning as a result of the associated decrease in cerebral metabolism and energy consumption. Reduction in the extent of degenerative processes associated with periods of ischaemia such as excitotoxic cascade; apoptotic and necrotic cell death; microglial activation; oxidative stress and inflammation associated with ischaemia are averted or minimised.2 Mild hypothermia is the only effective treatment confirmed clinically for improving the neurological outcomes of patient’s comatose following cardiac arrest.3

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Power law distributions in pattern dynamics of attacker-defender dyads in the team sport of Rugby Union : phenomena in a region of self-organized criticality?

In the region of self-organized criticality (SOC) interdependency between multi-agent system components exists and slight changes in near-neighbor interactions can break the balance of equally poised options leading to transitions in system order. In this region, frequency of events of differing magnitudes exhibits a power law distribution. The aim of this paper was to investigate whether a power law distribution characterized attacker-defender interactions in team sports. For this purpose we observed attacker and defender in a dyadic sub-phase of rugby union near the try line. Videogrammetry was used to capture players’ motion over time as player locations were digitized. Power laws were calculated for the rate of change of players’ relative position. Data revealed that three emergent patterns from dyadic system interactions (i.e., try; unsuccessful tackle; effective tackle) displayed a power law distribution. Results suggested that pattern forming dynamics dyads in rugby union exhibited SOC. It was concluded that rugby union dyads evolve in SOC regions suggesting that players’ decisions and actions are governed by local interactions rules.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.