Co-movements in commodity prices : a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co-movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co-movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid-2008 to the end of 2009 co-movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co-movement during the sampled period.

Data mining on prices of highway project main material based on WEB

The management of main material prices of provincial highway project quota has problems of lag and blindness. Framework of provincial highway project quota data MIS and main material price data warehouse were established based on WEB firstly. Then concrete processes of provincial highway project main material prices were brought forward based on BP neural network algorithmic. After that standard BP algorithmic, additional momentum modify BP network algorithmic, self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic were compared in predicting highway project main prices. The result indicated that it is feasible to predict highway main material prices using BP NN, and using self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic is the relatively best one.

Developing a rural land investment performance index for New Zealand

Agricultural production is one of the major industries in New Zealand and accounts for over 60% of all export trade. The farming industry comprises 70,000 entities ranging in size from small individual run farms to large corporate operations. The reliance of the New Zealand economy to the international rural sector has seen considerable volatility in the rural land markets over the past four decades, with significant shifts in rural land prices based on location, land use and underlying international rural commodity prices. With the increasing attention being paid to the rural sector, especially in relation to food production and bio-fuels, there has been an increasing corporate interest in rural land ownership in relatively low subsidised agricultural producing countries such as New Zealand and Australia. A factor that has limited this participation of institutional investors previously has been a lack of reliable and up-to-date investment performance data for this asset class. This paper is the initial starting phase in the development of a New Zealand South Island rural land investment performance index and covers the period 1990-2007. The research in this paper analyses all rural sales transactions in the South Island and develops a capital return index for rural property based on major rural property land use. Additional work on this index will cover both total return performance and geographic location.

An Analysis of UK Farmland : 1981-2004

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Although the average farm production property may require this support to maintain long-term production, the better farms can actually achieve production levels and commodity prices that result in these units being competitive on a free market basis. This paper will analyse the total return performance of UK farmland over the period 1981-2004. This analysis will compare the total return from rural properties in the UK and compare this performance to commercial property returns (total, office, retail, industrial), equities and gilts over this 24-year period. The analysis will be based on the IPD UK let land index and the IPD property index. The portfolio diversification and risk-reduction benefits of UK farmland will be highlighted. The analysis shows that rural property has negative correlations with equities and gilts, as well as insignificant positive correlations with retail, industrial and office property. Rural property also provides portfolio diversification benefits.

Total rural land performance in a free trade economy

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Following pressure from developing economies, particularly through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), GATT Uruguay round and the Cairns Group Developed countries are now in various stages of winding back or de-coupling agricultural support within their economies. A major concern of farmers in protected agricultural markets is the impact of a free market trade in agricultural commodities on farm incomes and land values. This paper will analyse the capital and income performance of the NSW rural land market over the period 1990-1999. This analysis will be based on land use and will compare the total return from rural properties based on world agricultural commodity prices.

An analysis and comparison of rural land sales

Rural land prices, in developed, free trade real estate markets, are influenced not only by prevailing economic conditions but also physical factors such as climate, topography and soil type. In broad acre farming and grazing operations, both commodity price and yields determine farm income. Yields, in turn, are a function of climate, topography and soil type. The strength of a rural land market is influenced by the overall rural economy in a Country, State or region. These differences in rural land markets can also vary within smaller regions. It has been held that rural land, in relative safe production areas, is less effected by adverse economic and climatic factors than land in more marginal agricultural areas. This paper will analyse rural land sales in both traditional cropping areas and marginal cropping areas for the period 1975 to 1996. The analysis will determine the overall trend in rural land prices over the period, compare the average annual return between marginal and established farming areas and determine which economic and production factors have influenced this change. The impact of this analysis will also be discussed in relation to rural land appraisal.

Seasonal activity and abundance of Orosius orientalis (Hemiptera : Cicadellidae) at agricultural sites in Southeastern Australia

Orosius orientalis is a leafhopper vector of several viruses and phytoplasmas affecting a broad range of agricultural crops. Sweep net, yellow pan trap and yellow sticky trap collection techniques were evaluated. Seasonal distribution of O. orientalis was surveyed over two successive growing seasons around the borders of commercially grown tobacco crops. Orosius orientalis seasonal activity as assessed using pan and sticky traps was characterised by a trimodal peak and relative abundance as assessed using sweep nets differed between field sites with peak activity occurring in spring and summer months. Yellow pan traps consistently trapped a higher number of O. orientalis than yellow sticky traps.

Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia

This paper estimates a simultaneous-equation model of wages and prices for Australia, underpinned by a competing claims framework of imperfect competition. Two separate co-integrating relationships for wages and prices are identified by imposing the economic hypotheses implied by the theory. The steady-state relationships for wages and prices are then embedded in a parsimonious, dynamic wage-price model. The final model is both simple and parsimonious and able to describe the process of wage and price inflation in Australia