Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Incomplete pregnancy and risk of ovarian cancer : results from two Australian case-control studies and systematic review

Although full-term pregnancies reduce the risk of ovarian cancer, it has not been conclusively established whether incomplete pregnancies also influence risk. We investigated the relationship between a history of incomplete pregnancy and incident epithelial ovarian cancer among over 4,500 women who participated in two large Australian population-based case-control studies in 1990-1993 and 2002-2005. They provided responses to detailed questions about their reproductive histories and other personal factors. Summary odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) derived from each study using the same covariates were aggregated. We found no significant associations between the number of incomplete pregnancies and ovarian cancer, for parous (OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.08) or nulliparous (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.48) women, nor for the number of spontaneous or induced abortions and ovarian cancer for parous women (OR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.82, 1.09; OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.36) or nulliparous women (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 0.6, 2.4; OR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.47, 1.38), respectively. A systematic review of 37 previous studies of the topic confirmed our findings that a history of incomplete pregnancy does not influence a woman’s risk of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Socio-environmental factors and suicide in Queensland, Australia

Suicide has drawn much attention from both the scientific community and the public. Examining the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide is essential in developing suicide prevention strategies and interventions, because it will provide health authorities with important information for their decision-making. However, previous studies did not examine the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide using a spatial analysis approach. The purpose of this study was to identify the patterns of suicide and to examine how socio-environmental factors impact on suicide over time and space at the Local Governmental Area (LGA) level in Queensland. The suicide data between 1999 and 2003 were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Socio-environmental variables at the LGA level included climate (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature), Socioeconomic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) and demographic variables (proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate, proportion of population with low income and low education level). Climate data were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. SEIFA and demographic variables were acquired from ABS. A series of statistical and geographical information system (GIS) approaches were applied in the analysis. This study included two stages. The first stage used average annual data to view the spatial pattern of suicide and to examine the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide over space. The second stage examined the spatiotemporal pattern of suicide and assessed the socio-environmental determinants of suicide, using more detailed seasonal data. In this research, 2,445 suicide cases were included, with 1,957 males (80.0%) and 488 females (20.0%). In the first stage, we examined the spatial pattern and the determinants of suicide using 5-year aggregated data. Spearman correlations were used to assess associations between variables. Then a Poisson regression model was applied in the multivariable analysis, as the occurrence of suicide is a small probability event and this model fitted the data quite well. Suicide mortality varied across LGAs and was associated with a range of socio-environmental factors. The multivariable analysis showed that maximum temperature was significantly and positively associated with male suicide (relative risk [RR] = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.07). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide in male population (male: RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03). There was a positive association between unemployment rate and suicide in both genders (male: RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.06; female: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.16). No significant association was observed for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low individual income and low educational attainment. In the second stage of this study, we undertook a preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of suicide using seasonal data. Firstly, we assessed the interrelations between variables. Secondly, a generalised estimating equations (GEE) model was used to examine the socio-environmental impact on suicide over time and space, as this model is well suited to analyze repeated longitudinal data (e.g., seasonal suicide mortality in a certain LGA) and it fitted the data better than other models (e.g., Poisson model). The suicide pattern varied with season and LGA. The north of Queensland had the highest suicide mortality rate in all the seasons, while there was no suicide case occurred in the southwest. Northwest had consistently higher suicide mortality in spring, autumn and winter. In other areas, suicide mortality varied between seasons. This analysis showed that maximum temperature was positively associated with suicide among male population (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.47) and total population (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.32). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide among total population (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.19) and by gender (male: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.13; female: RR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.48). Unemployment rate was positively associated with total (RR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.59) and female (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.18) suicide. There was also a positive association between proportion of population with low individual income and suicide in total (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.48) and male (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.72) population. Rainfall was only positively associated with suicide in total population (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.19). There was no significant association for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low educational attainment. The second stage is the extension of the first stage. Different spatial scales of dataset were used between the two stages (i.e., mean yearly data in the first stage, and seasonal data in the second stage), but the results are generally consistent with each other. Compared with other studies, this research explored the variety of the impact of a wide range of socio-environmental factors on suicide in different geographical units. Maximum temperature, proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate and proportion of population with low individual income were among the major determinants of suicide in Queensland. However, the influence from other factors (e.g. socio-culture background, alcohol and drug use) influencing suicide cannot be ignored. An in-depth understanding of these factors is vital in planning and implementing suicide prevention strategies. Five recommendations for future research are derived from this study: (1) It is vital to acquire detailed personal information on each suicide case and relevant information among the population in assessing the key socio-environmental determinants of suicide; (2) Bayesian model could be applied to compare mortality rates and their socio-environmental determinants across LGAs in future research; (3) In the LGAs with warm weather, high proportion of Indigenous population and/or unemployment rate, concerted efforts need to be made to control and prevent suicide and other mental health problems; (4) The current surveillance, forecasting and early warning system needs to be strengthened, to trace the climate and socioeconomic change over time and space and its impact on population health; (5) It is necessary to evaluate and improve the facilities of mental health care, psychological consultation, suicide prevention and control programs; especially in the areas with low socio-economic status, high unemployment rate, extreme weather events and natural disasters.

Vitamin D and sun protection : the impact of mixed public health messages in Australia

Exposure of the skin to sunlight can cause skin cancer and is also necessary for cutaneous vitamin D production. Media reports have highlighted the purported health benefits of vitamin D. Our aim was to examine attitudes and behaviours related to sun protection and vitamin D. A cross-sectional study of 2,001 residents in Queensland, Australia aged 20-70 years was undertaken. Information collected included: skin cancer risk factors; perceptions about levels of sun exposure required to maintain vitamin D; belief that sun protection increases risk of vitamin D deficiency; intention, and actual change in sun protection practices for adults and children. Multivariate models examined predictors of attitudinal and behavioural change. One-third (32%) believed a fair-skinned adult, and 31% thought a child required at least 30 minutes per day in summer sun to maintain vitamin D levels. Reductions in sun protection were reported by 21% of adults and 14% of children. Factors associated with belief that sun protection may result in not obtaining enough vitamin D included aged ≥ 60 years (OR=1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66) and having skin that tanned easily (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.38-2.78). Participants from low income households, and those who frequently used sun protective clothing were more likely to have reduced sun protection practices (OR=1.33, 95% CI 1.10-1.73 and OR=1.73, 95% CI 1.36-2.20, respectively). This study provides evidence of reductions in sun protection practices in a population living in a high UV environment. There is an urgent need to re-focus messages regarding sun exposure and for continued sun protection practices.

Latitude variation in pancreatic cancer mortality in Australia

Objectives: Ecological studies support the hypothesis that there is an association between vitamin D and pancreatic cancer (PaCa) mortality, but observational studies are somewhat conflicting. We sought to contribute further data to this issue by analyzing the differences in PaCa mortality across the eastern states of Australia and investigating if there is a role of vitamin D-effective ultraviolet radiation (DUVR), which is related to latitude. ---------- Methods: Mortality data from 1968 to 2005 were sourced from the Australian General Record of Incidence and Mortality books. Negative binomial models were fitted to calculate the association between state and PaCa mortality. Clear sky monthly DUVR in each capital city was also modeled. ---------- Results: Mortality from PaCa was 10% higher in southern states than in Queensland, with those in Victoria recording the highest mortality risk (relative risk, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.17). We found a highly significant association between DUVR and PaCa mortality, with an estimated 1.5% decrease in the risk per 10-kJ/m2 increase in yearly DUVR. ---------- Conclusions: These data show an association between latitude, DUVR, and PaCa mortality. Although this study cannot be used to infer causality, it supports the need for further investigations of a possible role of vitamin D in PaCa etiology.

Complex Urban Systems

Presentation about research projects that build understanding of urban design and interactions and plan for future opportunities. What do we need to model?

Lifestyle factors associated concurrently and prospectively with co-morbid cardiovascular disease in a population-based cohort of colorectal cancer survivors

Aims To assess self-reported lifetime prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among colorectal cancer survivors, and examine the cross-sectional and prospective associations of lifestyle factors with co-morbid CVD. Methods Colorectal cancer survivors were recruited (n = 1966). Data were collected at approximately 5, 12, 24 and 36 months post-diagnosis. Cross-sectional findings included six CVD categories (hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, kidney disease and ischaemic heart disease (IHD)) at 5 months post-diagnosis. Longitudinal outcomes included the probability of developing (de novo) co-morbid CVD by 36 months post-diagnosis. Lifestyle factors included body mass index, physical activity, television (TV) viewing, alcohol consumption and smoking. Results Co-morbid CVD prevalence at 5 months post-diagnosis was 59%, and 16% of participants with no known CVD at the baseline reported de novo CVD by 36 months. Obesity at the baseline predicted de novo hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 2.20, 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 1.09, 4.45) and de novo diabetes (OR = 6.55, 95% CI = 2.19, 19.53). Participants watching >4 h of TV/d at the baseline (compared with <2 h/d) were more likely to develop ischaemic heart disease by 36 months (OR = 5.51, 95% CI = 1.86, 16.34). Conclusion Overweight colorectal cancer survivors were more likely to suffer from co-morbid CVD. Interventions focusing on weight management and other modifiable lifestyle factors may reduce functional decline and improve survival.

Physical activity, sitting and depression during pregnancy

Aims The aim of this cross sectional study is to explore levels of physical activity and sitting behaviour amongst a sample of pregnant Australian women (n = 81), and investigate whether reported levels of physical activity and/or time spent sitting were associated with depressive symptom scores after controlling for potential covariates. Methods Study participants were women who attended the antenatal clinic of a large Brisbane maternity hospital between October and November 2006. Data relating to participants. current levels of physical activity, sitting behaviour, depressive symptoms, demographic characteristics and exposure to known risk factors for depression during pregnancy were collected; via on-site survey, follow-up telephone interview (approximately one week later) and post delivery access to participant hospital records. Results Participants were aged 29.5 (¡¾ 5.6) years and mostly partnered (86.4%) with a gross household income above $26,000 per annum (88.9%). Levels of physical activity were generally low, with only 28.4 % of participants reporting sufficient total activity and 16% of participants reporting sufficient planned (leisure-time) activity. The sample mean for depressive symptom scores measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D) was 6.38 (¡¾ 2.55). The mean depressive symptom scores for participants who reported total moderate-to-vigorous activity levels of sufficient, insufficient, and none, were 5.43 (¡¾ 1.56), 5.82 (¡¾ 1.77) and 7.63 (¡¾ 3.25), respectively. Hierarchical multivariable linear regression modelling indicated that after controlling for covariates, a statistically significant difference of 1.09 points was observed between mean depressive symptom scores of participants who reported sufficient total physical activity, compared with participants who reported they were engaging in no moderate-to-vigorous activity in a typical week (p = 0.05) but this did not reach the criteria for a clinically meaningful difference. Total physical activity was contributed 2.2% to the total 30.3% of explained variance within this model. The other main contributors to explained variance in multivariable regression models were anxiety symptom scores and the number of existing children. Further, a trend was observed between higher levels of planned sitting behaviour and higher depressive symptom scores (p = 0.06); this correlation was not clinically meaningful. Planned sitting contributed 3.2% to the total 31.3 % of explained variance. The number of regression covariates and limited sample size led to a less than ideal ratio of covariates to participants, probably attenuating this relationship. Specific information about the sitting-based activities in which participants engaged may have provided greater insight about the relationship between planned sitting and depressive symptoms, but these data were not captured by the present study. Conclusions The finding that higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower levels of depressive symptoms is consistent with the current body of existing literature in pregnant women, and with a larger body of evidence based in general population samples. Although this result was not considered clinically meaningful, the criterion for a clinically meaningful result was an a priori decision based on quality of life literature in non-pregnant populations and may not truly reflect a difference in symptoms that is meaningful to pregnant women. Further investigation to establish clinically meaningful criteria for continuous depressive symptom data in pregnant women is required. This result may have implications relating to prevention and management options for depression during pregnancy. The observed trend between planned sitting and depressive symptom scores is consistent with literature based on leisure-time sitting behaviour in general population samples, and suggests that further research in this area, with larger samples of pregnant women and more specific sitting data is required to explore potential associations between activities such as television viewing and depressive symptoms, as this may be an area of behaviour that is amenable to modification.

FGFR2 point mutations in 466 Endometrioid Endometrial Tumors : relationship with MSI, KRAS, PIK3CA, CTNNB1 mutations and Clinicopathological features

Mutations in multiple oncogenes including KRAS, CTNNB1, PIK3CA and FGFR2 have been identified in endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to provide insight into the clinicopathological features associated with patterns of mutation in these genes, a necessary step in planning targeted therapies for endometrial cancer. 466 endometrioid endometrial tumors were tested for mutations in FGFR2, KRAS, CTNNB1, and PIK3CA. The relationships between mutation status, tumor microsatellite instability (MSI) and clinicopathological features including overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Mutations were identified in FGFR2 (48/466); KRAS (87/464); CTNNB1 (88/454) and PIK3CA (104/464). KRAS and FGFR2 mutations were significantly more common, and CTNNB1 mutations less common, in MSI positive tumors. KRAS and FGFR2 occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.05) and, surprisingly, mutations in KRAS and CTNNB1 also occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.0002). Multivariate analysis revealed that mutation in KRAS and FGFR2 showed a trend (p = 0.06) towards longer and shorter DFS, respectively. In the 386 patients with early stage disease (stage I and II), FGFR2 mutation was significantly associated with shorter DFS (HR = 3.24; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.35-7.77; p = 0.008) and OS (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.09-3.65; p = 0.025) and KRAS was associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.23; 95% CI 0.05-0.97; p = 0.045). In conclusion, although KRAS and FGFR2 mutations share similar activation of the MAPK pathway, our data suggest very different roles in tumor biology. This has implications for the implementation of anti-FGFR or anti-MEK biologic therapies.

Timed Up and Go Tests in cardiac rehabilitation : reliability and comparison with the 6-minute walk test

PURPOSE: To test the reliability of Timed Up and Go Tests (TUGTs) in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) and compare TUGTs to the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT) for outcome measurement. METHODS: Sixty-one of 154 consecutive community-based CR patients were prospectively recruited. Subjects undertook repeated TUGTs and 6MWTs at the start of CR (start-CR), postdischarge from CR (post-CR), and 6 months postdischarge from CR (6 months post-CR). The main outcome measurements were TUGT time (TUGTT) and 6MWT distance (6MWD). RESULTS: Mean (SD) TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 at the 3 assessments were 6.29 (1.30) and 5.94 (1.20); 5.81 (1.22) and 5.53 (1.09); and 5.39 (1.60) and 5.01 (1.28) seconds, respectively. A reduction in TUGTT occurred between each outcome point (P ≤ .002). Repeated TUGTTs were strongly correlated at each assessment, intraclass correlation (95% CI) = 0.85 (0.76–0.91), 0.84 (0.73–0.91), and 0.90 (0.83–0.94), despite a reduction between TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 of 5%, 5%, and 7%, respectively (P ≤ .006). Relative decreases in TUGTT1 (TUGTT2) occurred from start-CR to post-CR and from start-CR to 6 months post-CR of −7.5% (−6.9%) and −14.2% (−15.5%), respectively, while relative increases in 6MWD1 (6MWD2) occurred, 5.1% (7.2%) and 8.4% (10.2%), respectively (P < .001 in all cases). Pearson correlation coefficients for 6MWD1 to TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 across all times were −0.60 and −0.68 (P < .001) and the intraclass correlations (95% CI) for the speeds derived from averaged 6MWDs and TUGTTs were 0.65 (0.54, 0.73) (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Similar relative changes occurred for the TUGT and the 6MWT in CR. A significant correlation between the TUGTT and 6MWD was demonstrated, and we suggest that the TUGT may provide a related or a supplementary measurement of functional capacity in CR.

Investigation of the [−/A]8 and C1236T genetic variations within the human toll-like receptor 3 gene for association with multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a serious cause of neurological disability among young adults. The clinical course remains difficult to predict, and the pathogenesis of the disease is still modestly understood. Autoimmunity is thought to be a key aspect of the disease, with autoreactive T cells thought to mediate central nervous system (CNS) inflammation to some extent. Toll-like receptors are known to mediate cellular recognition of pathogens by way of patterns of molecular presentation. Toll-like receptor 3 is coded by the gene TLR3 and is recognized as an important factor in virus recognition and is known to be involved in the expression of neuroprotective mediators. We set out to investigate two variations within the TLR3 gene, an 8 bp insertion-deletion \[-/A](8) and a single base-pair variation C1236T, in subjects with MS and matched healthy controls to determine whether significant differences exist in these markers in an Australian population. We used capillary gel electrophoresis and TaqMan genotyping assay techniques to resolve genotypes for each marker, respectively. Our work found no significant difference between frequencies for TLR3 \[-/A](8) by genotype (chi(2)=1.03, p=0.60) or allele (chi(2)=1.09, p=0.30). Similarly, we found no evidence for the association of TLR3 C1236T by genotype (chi(2)=0.35, p=0.84) or allele frequency (chi(2)=0.31, p=0.58). This work reveals no evidence to suggest that these markers are associated with MS in the tested population. Although the role of TLR3 and the wider toll-like receptor family remain significant in neurological and CNS inflammatory disorders, our current work does not support a role for the two tested variants in this gene with regard to MS susceptibility.

Association of a vitamin D receptor polymorphism with sporadic breast cancer development

Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among Australian women and its incidence is annually increasing. Genetic factors are involved in the complex etiology of breast cancer. The seco-steroid hormone, 1.25 dihydroxy vitamin D3 can influence breast cancer cell growth in vitro. A number of studies have reported correlations between vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene polymorphisms and several diseases including prostate cancer and osteoporosis. In breast cancer, low vitamin D levels in serum are correlated with disease progression and bone metastases, a situation also noted in prostate cancer and suggesting the involvement of the VDR. In our study, 2 restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP) in the 3' region (detected by Apa1 and Taq1) and an initiation codon variant in the 5' end of the VDR gene (detected by Fok1) were tested for association with breast cancer risk in 135 females with sporadic breast cancer and 110 cancer-free female controls. Allele frequencies of the 3' Apa1 polymorphism showed a significant association (p = 0.016; OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.09-2.24) while the Taq1 RFLP showed a similar trend (p = 0.053; OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.00-2.00). Allele frequencies of the Fok1 polymorphism were not significantly different (p = 0.97; OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.69-1.43) in the study population. Our results suggest that specific alleles of the VDR gene located near the 3' region may identify an increased risk for breast cancer and justify further investigation of the role of VDR in breast cancer.

Malnutrition in Parkinson's disease and an individualised approach to its management

It has been reported that poor nutritional status, in the form of weight loss and resulting body mass index (BMI) changes, is an issue in people with Parkinson's disease (PWP). The symptoms resulting from Parkinson's disease (PD) and the side effects of PD medication have been implicated in the aetiology of nutritional decline. However, the evidence on which these claims are based is, on one hand, contradictory, and on the other, restricted primarily to otherwise healthy PWP. Despite the claims that PWP suffer from poor nutritional status, evidence is lacking to inform nutrition-related care for the management of malnutrition in PWP. The aims of this thesis were to better quantify the extent of poor nutritional status in PWP, determine the important factors differentiating the well-nourished from the malnourished and evaluate the effectiveness of an individualised nutrition intervention on nutritional status. Phase DBS: Nutritional status in people with Parkinson's disease scheduled for deep-brain stimulation surgery The pre-operative rate of malnutrition in a convenience sample of people with Parkinson's disease (PWP) scheduled for deep-brain stimulation (DBS) surgery was determined. Poorly controlled PD symptoms may result in a higher risk of malnutrition in this sub-group of PWP. Fifteen patients (11 male, median age 68.0 (42.0 – 78.0) years, median PD duration 6.75 (0.5 – 24.0) years) participated and data were collected during hospital admission for the DBS surgery. The scored PG-SGA was used to assess nutritional status, anthropometric measures (weight, height, mid-arm circumference, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI)) were taken, and body composition was measured using bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS). Six (40%) of the participants were malnourished (SGA-B) while 53% reported significant weight loss following diagnosis. BMI was significantly different between SGA-A and SGA-B (25.6 vs 23.0kg/m 2, p<.05). There were no differences in any other variables, including PG-SGA score and the presence of non-motor symptoms. The conclusion was that malnutrition in this group is higher than that in other studies reporting malnutrition in PWP, and it is under-recognised. As poorer surgical outcomes are associated with poorer pre-operative nutritional status in other surgeries, it might be beneficial to identify patients at nutritional risk prior to surgery so that appropriate nutrition interventions can be implemented. Phase I: Nutritional status in community-dwelling adults with Parkinson's disease The rate of malnutrition in community-dwelling adults (>18 years) with Parkinson's disease was determined. One hundred twenty-five PWP (74 male, median age 70.0 (35.0 – 92.0) years, median PD duration 6.0 (0.0 – 31.0) years) participated. The scored PG-SGA was used to assess nutritional status, anthropometric measures (weight, height, mid-arm circumference (MAC), calf circumference, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI)) were taken. Nineteen (15%) of the participants were malnourished (SGA-B). All anthropometric indices were significantly different between SGA-A and SGA-B (BMI 25.9 vs 20.0kg/m2; MAC 29.1 – 25.5cm; waist circumference 95.5 vs 82.5cm; calf circumference 36.5 vs 32.5cm; all p<.05). The PG-SGA score was also significantly lower in the malnourished (2 vs 8, p<.05). The nutrition impact symptoms which differentiated between well-nourished and malnourished were no appetite, constipation, diarrhoea, problems swallowing and feel full quickly. This study concluded that malnutrition in community-dwelling PWP is higher than that documented in community-dwelling elderly (2 – 11%), yet is likely to be under-recognised. Nutrition impact symptoms play a role in reduced intake. Appropriate screening and referral processes should be established for early detection of those at risk. Phase I: Nutrition assessment tools in people with Parkinson's disease There are a number of validated and reliable nutrition screening and assessment tools available for use. None of these tools have been evaluated in PWP. In the sample described above, the use of the World Health Organisation (WHO) cut-off (≤18.5kg/m2), age-specific BMI cut-offs (≤18.5kg/m2 for under 65 years, ≤23.5kg/m2 for 65 years and older) and the revised Mini-Nutritional Assessment short form (MNA-SF) were evaluated as nutrition screening tools. The PG-SGA (including the SGA classification) and the MNA full form were evaluated as nutrition assessment tools using the SGA classification as the gold standard. For screening, the MNA-SF performed the best with sensitivity (Sn) of 94.7% and specificity (Sp) of 78.3%. For assessment, the PG-SGA with a cut-off score of 4 (Sn 100%, Sp 69.8%) performed better than the MNA (Sn 84.2%, Sp 87.7%). As the MNA has been recommended more for use as a nutrition screening tool, the MNA-SF might be more appropriate and take less time to complete. The PG-SGA might be useful to inform and monitor nutrition interventions. Phase I: Predictors of poor nutritional status in people with Parkinson's disease A number of assessments were conducted as part of the Phase I research, including those for the severity of PD motor symptoms, cognitive function, depression, anxiety, non-motor symptoms, constipation, freezing of gait and the ability to carry out activities of daily living. A higher score in all of these assessments indicates greater impairment. In addition, information about medical conditions, medications, age, age at PD diagnosis and living situation was collected. These were compared between those classified as SGA-A and as SGA-B. Regression analysis was used to identify which factors were predictive of malnutrition (SGA-B). Differences between the groups included disease severity (4% more severe SGA-A vs 21% SGA-B, p<.05), activities of daily living score (13 SGA-A vs 18 SGA-B, p<.05), depressive symptom score (8 SGA-A vs 14 SGA-B, p<.05) and gastrointestinal symptoms (4 SGA-A vs 6 SGA-B, p<.05). Significant predictors of malnutrition according to SGA were age at diagnosis (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01 – 1.18), amount of dopaminergic medication per kg body weight (mg/kg) (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04 – 1.31), more severe motor symptoms (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02 – 1.19), less anxiety (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82 – 0.98) and more depressive symptoms (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.07 – 1.41). Significant predictors of a higher PG-SGA score included living alone (β=0.14, 95% CI 0.01 – 0.26), more depressive symptoms (β=0.02, 95% CI 0.01 – 0.02) and more severe motor symptoms (OR 0.01, 95% CI 0.01 – 0.02). More severe disease is associated with malnutrition, and this may be compounded by lack of social support. Phase II: Nutrition intervention Nineteen of the people identified in Phase I as requiring nutrition support were included in Phase II, in which a nutrition intervention was conducted. Nine participants were in the standard care group (SC), which received an information sheet only, and the other 10 participants were in the intervention group (INT), which received individualised nutrition information and weekly follow-up. INT gained 2.2% of starting body weight over the 12 week intervention period resulting in significant increases in weight, BMI, mid-arm circumference and waist circumference. The SC group gained 1% of starting weight over the 12 weeks which did not result in any significant changes in anthropometric indices. Energy and protein intake (18.3kJ/kg vs 3.8kJ/kg and 0.3g/kg vs 0.15g/kg) increased in both groups. The increase in protein intake was only significant in the SC group. The changes in intake, when compared between the groups, were no different. There were no significant changes in any motor or non-motor symptoms or in "off" times or dyskinesias in either group. Aspects of quality of life improved over the 12 weeks as well, especially emotional well-being. This thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base for the presence of malnutrition in Parkinson's disease as well as for the identification of those who would potentially benefit from nutrition screening and assessment. The nutrition intervention demonstrated that a traditional high protein, high energy approach to the management of malnutrition resulted in improved nutritional status and anthropometric indices with no effect on the presence of Parkinson's disease symptoms and a positive effect on quality of life.

Genome-wide association study identifies a possible susceptibility locus for endometrial cancer

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 100 genetic loci for various cancers. However, only one is for endometrial cancer. Methods: We conducted a three-stage GWAS including 8,492 endometrial cancer cases and 16,596 controls. After analyzing 585,963 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 832 cases and 2,682 controls (stage I) from the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Genetics Study, we selected the top 106 SNPs for in silico replication among 1,265 cases and 5,190 controls from the Australian/British Endometrial Cancer GWAS (stage II). Nine SNPs showed results consistent in direction with stage I with P < 0.1. These nine SNPs were investigated among 459 cases and 558 controls (stage IIIa) and six SNPs showed a direction of association consistent with stages I and II. These six SNPs, plus two additional SNPs selected on the basis of linkage disequilibrium and P values in stage II, were investigated among 5,936 cases and 8,166 controls from an additional 11 studies (stage IIIb). Results: SNP rs1202524, near the CAPN9 gene on chromosome 1q42.2, showed a consistent association with endometrial cancer risk across all three stages, with ORs of 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03–1.16] for the A/G genotype and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.05–1.30) for the G/G genotype (P = 1.6 × 10−4 in combined analyses of all samples). The association was stronger when limited to the endometrioid subtype, with ORs (95% CI) of 1.11 (1.04–1.18) and 1.21 (1.08–1.35), respectively (P = 2.4 × 10−5). Conclusions: Chromosome 1q42.2 may host an endometrial cancer susceptibility locus. Impact: This study identified a potential genetic locus for endometrial cancer risk

The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis

Endometrial cancer is one of the most common female diseases in developed nations and is the most commonly diagnosed gynaecological cancer in Australia. The disease is commonly classified by histology: endometrioid or non-endometrioid endometrial cancer. While non-endometrioid endometrial cancers are accepted to be high-grade, aggressive cancers, endometrioid cancers (comprising 80% of all endometrial cancers diagnosed) generally carry a favourable patient prognosis. However, endometrioid endometrial cancer patients endure significant morbidity due to surgery and radiotherapy used for disease treatment, and patients with recurrent disease have a 5-year survival rate of less than 50%. Genetic analysis of women with endometrial cancer could uncover novel markers associated with disease risk and/or prognosis, which could then be used to identify women at high risk and for the use of specialised treatments. Proteases are widely accepted to play an important role in the development and progression of cancer. This PhD project hypothesised that SNPs from two protease gene families, the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs, including their tissue inhibitors, TIMPs) and the tissue kallikrein-related peptidases (KLKs) would be associated with endometrial cancer susceptibility and/or prognosis. In the first part of this study, optimisation of the genotyping techniques was performed. Results from previously published endometrial cancer genetic association studies were attempted to be validated in a large, multicentre replication set (maximum cases n = 2,888, controls n = 4,483, 3 studies). The rs11224561 progesterone receptor SNP (PGR, A/G) was observed to be associated with increased endometrial cancer risk (per A allele OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.12-1.53; p-trend = 0.001), a result which was initially reported among a Chinese sample set. Previously reported associations for the remaining 8 SNPs investigated for this section of the PhD study were not confirmed, thereby reinforcing the importance of validation of genetic association studies. To examine the effect of SNPs from the MMP and KLK families on endometrial cancer risk, we selected the most significantly associated MMP and KLK SNPs from genome-wide association study analysis (GWAS) to be genotyped in the GWAS replication set (cases n = 4,725, controls n = 9,803, 13 studies). The significance of the MMP24 rs932562 SNP was unchanged after incorporation of the stage 2 samples (Stage 1 per allele OR 1.18, p = 0.002; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.09, p = 0.002). The rs10426 SNP, located 3' to KLK10 was predicted by bioinformatic analysis to effect miRNA binding. This SNP was observed in the GWAS stage 1 result to exhibit a recessive effect on endometrial cancer risk, a result which was not validated in the stage 2 sample set (Stage 1 OR 1.44, p = 0.007; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.14, p = 0.08). Investigation of the regions imputed surrounding the MMP, TIMP and KLK genes did not reveal any significant targets for further analysis. Analysis of the case data from the endometrial cancer GWAS to identify genetic variation associated with cancer grade did not reveal SNPs from the MMP, TIMP or KLK genes to be statistically significant. However, the representation of SNPs from the MMP, TIMP and KLK families by the GWAS genotyping platform used in this PhD project was examined and observed to be very low, with the genetic variation of four genes (MMP23A, MMP23B, MMP28 and TIMP1) not captured at all by this technique. This suggests that comprehensive candidate gene association studies will be required to assess the role of SNPs from these genes with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray datasets curated as part of this PhD study identified a number of MMP, TIMP and KLK genes to display differential expression by endometrial cancer status (MMP2, MMP10, MMP11, MMP13, MMP19, MMP25 and KLK1) and histology (MMP2, MMP11, MMP12, MMP26, MMP28, TIMP2, TIMP3, KLK6, KLK7, KLK11 and KLK12). In light of these findings these genes should be prioritised for future targeted genetic association studies. Two SNPs located 43.5 Mb apart on chromosome 15 were observed from the GWAS analysis to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, results that were validated in silico in two independent datasets. One of these SNPs, rs8035725 is located in the 5' untranslated region of a MYC promoter binding protein DENND4A (Stage 1 OR 1.15, p = 9.85 x 10P -5 P, combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.13, p = 5.24 x 10P -6 P). This SNP has previously been reported to alter the expression of PTPLAD1, a gene involved in the synthesis of very long fatty acid chains and in the Rac1 signaling pathway. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray data found PTPLAD1 to display increased expression in the aggressive non-endometrioid histology compared with endometrioid endometrial cancer, suggesting that the causal SNP underlying the observed genetic association may influence expression of this gene. Neither rs8035725 nor significant SNPs identified by imputation were predicted bioinformatically to affect transcription factor binding sites, indicating that further studies are required to assess their potential effect on other regulatory elements. The other grade- associated SNP, rs6606792, is located upstream of an inferred pseudogene, ELMO2P1 (Stage 1 OR 1.12, p = 5 x 10P -5 P; combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.09, p = 3.56 x 10P -5 P). Imputation of the ±1 Mb region surrounding this SNP revealed a cluster of significantly associated variants which are predicted to abolish various transcription factor binding sites, and would be expected to decrease gene expression. ELMO2P1 was not included on the microarray platforms collected for this PhD, and so its expression could not be investigated. However, the high sequence homology of ELMO2P1 with ELMO2, a gene important to cell motility, indicates that ELMO2 could be the parent gene for ELMO2P1 and as such, ELMO2P1 could function to regulate the expression of ELMO2. Increased expression of ELMO2 was seen to be associated with increasing endometrial cancer grade, as well as with aggressive endometrial cancer histological subtypes by microarray meta-analysis. Thus, it is hypothesised that SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with rs6606792 decrease the transcription of ELMO2P1, reducing the regulatory effect of ELMO2P1 on ELMO2 expression. Consequently, ELMO2 expression is increased, cell motility is enhanced leading to an aggressive endometrial cancer phenotype. In summary, these findings have identified several areas of research for further study. The results presented in this thesis provide evidence that a SNP in PGR is associated with risk of developing endometrial cancer. This PhD study also reports two independent loci on chromosome 15 to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, and furthermore, genes associated with these SNPs to be differentially expressed according in aggressive subtypes and/or by grade. The studies reported in this thesis support the need for comprehensive SNP association studies on prioritised MMP, TIMP and KLK genes in large sample sets. Until these studies are performed, the role of MMP, TIMP and KLK genetic variation remains unclear. Overall, this PhD study has contributed to the understanding of genetic variation involvement in endometrial cancer susceptibility and prognosis. Importantly, the genetic regions highlighted in this study could lead to the identification of novel gene targets to better understand the biology of endometrial cancer and also aid in the development of therapeutics directed at treating this disease.