Workflow simulation for operational decision support

Simulation is widely used as a tool for analyzing business processes but is mostly focused on examining abstract steady-state situations. Such analyses are helpful for the initial design of a business process but are less suitable for operational decision making and continuous improvement. Here we describe a simulation system for operational decision support in the context of workflow management. To do this we exploit not only the workflow’s design, but also use logged data describing the system’s observed historic behavior, and incorporate information extracted about the current state of the workflow. Making use of actual data capturing the current state and historic information allows our simulations to accurately predict potential near-future behaviors for different scenarios. The approach is supported by a practical toolset which combines and extends the workflow management system YAWL and the process mining framework ProM.

Cellular senescence and longevity of osteophyte-derived mesenchymal stem cells compared to patient-matched bone marrow stromal cells

This study aimed to determine the cellular aging of osteophyte-derived mesenchymal cells (oMSCs) in comparison to patient-matched bone marrow stromal cells (bMSCs). Extensive expansion of the cell cultures was performed and early and late passage cells (passages 4 and 9, respectively) were used to study signs of cellular aging, telomere length, telomerase activity, and cell-cycle-related gene expression. Our results showed that cellular aging was more prominent in bMSCs than in oMSCs, and that oMSCs had longer telomere length in late passages compared with bMSCs, although there was no significant difference in telomere lengths in the early passages in either cell type. Telomerase activity was detectable only in early passage oMSCs and not in bMSCs. In osteophyte tissues telomerase-positive cells were found to be located perivascularly and were Stro-1 positive. Fifteen cell-cycle regulator genes were investigated and only three genes (APC, CCND2, and BMP2) were differentially expressed between bMSC and oMSC. Our results indicate that oMSCs retain a level of telomerase activity in vitro, which may account for the relatively greater longevity of these cells, compared with bMSCs, by preventing replicative senescence. J. Cell. Biochem. 108: 839-850, 2009. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Use of Bayesian geostatistical prediction to estimate local variations in Schistosoma haematobium infection in western Africa

Objective We aimed to predict sub-national spatial variation in numbers of people infected with Schistosoma haematobium, and associated uncertainties, in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, prior to implementation of national control programmes. Methods We used national field survey datasets covering a contiguous area 2,750 × 850 km, from 26,790 school-aged children (5–14 years) in 418 schools. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict prevalence of high and low intensity infections and associated 95% credible intervals (CrI). Numbers infected were determined by multiplying predicted prevalence by numbers of school-aged children in 1 km2 pixels covering the study area. Findings Numbers of school-aged children with low-intensity infections were: 433,268 in Burkina Faso, 872,328 in Mali and 580,286 in Niger. Numbers with high-intensity infections were: 416,009 in Burkina Faso, 511,845 in Mali and 254,150 in Niger. 95% CrIs (indicative of uncertainty) were wide; e.g. the mean number of boys aged 10–14 years infected in Mali was 140,200 (95% CrI 6200, 512,100). Conclusion National aggregate estimates for numbers infected mask important local variation, e.g. most S. haematobium infections in Niger occur in the Niger River valley. Prevalence of high-intensity infections was strongly clustered in foci in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in Niger. Populations in these foci are likely to carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should receive priority for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in predicted prevalence and numbers infected should be acknowledged and taken into consideration by control programme planners.

Facile synthesis of Lithium Niobate squares by a combustion route

A combustion synthesis of lithium niobate (LN) squares from activated niobium oxide (Nb2 O5.nH2O) and Li2CO3 was studied to understand all the chemical reactions involved, and the nucleation and square-growth mechanisms. It was found that first the lithium ions react with the fuel (urea), then niobium ions of Nb2 O5.nH2O begin a continuous reaction with the fuel to form metal-organic complexes. LN nuclei are formed by the solid-state reaction of Li- and Nb-organic complexes at 430 degrees celcius. Lithium niobate squares are obtained in the crystallization stasge at 700 degrees celcius, which go on the grow into larger squares at 850 degrees celcius because of the agglomeration effect.

The influence of climate variability on hydrological processes and surface and groundwater hydrochemistry : the tropical upper roper river catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

The Upper Roper River is one of the Australia’s unique tropical rivers which have been largely untouched by development. The Upper Roper River catchment comprises the sub-catchments of the Waterhouse River and Roper Creek, the two tributaries of the Roper River. There is a complex geological setting with different aquifer types. In this seasonal system, close interaction between surface water and groundwater contributes to both streamflow and sustaining ecosystems. The interaction is highly variable between seasons. A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed to investigate the different hydrological processes and geochemical parameters, and determine the baseline characteristics of water resources of this pristine catchment. In the catchment, long term average rainfall is around 850 mm and is summer dominant which significantly influences the total hydrological system. The difference between seasons is pronounced, with high rainfall up to 600 mm/month in the wet season, and negligible rainfall in the dry season. Canopy interception significantly reduces the amount of effective rainfall because of the native vegetation cover in the pristine catchment. Evaporation exceeds rainfall the majority of the year. Due to elevated evaporation and high temperature in the tropics, at least 600 mm of annual rainfall is required to generate potential recharge. Analysis of 120 years of rainfall data trend helped define “wet” and “dry periods”: decreasing trend corresponds to dry periods, and increasing trend to wet periods. The period from 1900 to 1970 was considered as Dry period 1, when there were years with no effective rainfall, and if there was, the intensity of rainfall was around 300 mm. The period 1970 – 1985 was identified as the Wet period 2, when positive effective rainfall occurred in almost every year, and the intensity reached up to 700 mm. The period 1985 – 1995 was the Dry period 2, with similar characteristics as Dry period 1. Finally, the last decade was the Wet period 2, with effective rainfall intensity up to 800 mm. This variability in rainfall over decades increased/decreased recharge and discharge, improving/reducing surface water and groundwater quantity and quality in different wet and dry periods. The stream discharge follows the rainfall pattern. In the wet season, the aquifer is replenished, groundwater levels and groundwater discharge are high, and surface runoff is the dominant component of streamflow. Waterhouse River contributes two thirds and Roper Creek one third to Roper River flow. As the dry season progresses, surface runoff depletes, and groundwater becomes the main component of stream flow. Flow in Waterhouse River is negligible, the Roper Creek dries up, but the Roper River maintains its flow throughout the year. This is due to the groundwater and spring discharge from the highly permeable Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers. Rainfall seasonality and lithology of both the catchment and aquifers are shown to influence water chemistry. In the wet season, dilution of water bodies by rainwater is the main process. In the dry season, when groundwater provides baseflow to the streams, their chemical composition reflects lithology of the aquifers, in particular the karstic areas. Water chemistry distinguishes four types of aquifer materials described as alluvium, sandstone, limestone and tufa. Surface water in the headwaters of the Waterhouse River, the Roper Creek and their tributaries are freshwater, and reflect the alluvium and sandstone aquifers. At and downstream of the confluence of the Roper River, river water chemistry indicates the influence of rainfall dilution in the wet season, and the signature of the Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers in the dry. Rainbow Spring on the Waterhouse River and Bitter Spring on the Little Roper River (known as Roper Creek at the headwaters) discharge from the Tindall Limestone. Botanic Walk Spring and Fig Tree Spring discharge into the Roper River from tufa. The source of water was defined based on water chemical composition of the springs, surface and groundwater. The mechanisms controlling surface water chemistry were examined to define the dominance of precipitation, evaporation or rock weathering on the water chemical composition. Simple water balance models for the catchment have been developed. The important aspects to be considered in water resource planning of this total system are the naturally high salinity in the region, especially the downstream sections, and how unpredictable climate variation may impact on the natural seasonal variability of water volumes and surface-subsurface interaction.

Quality of life and genetics in men with prostate cancer

As family history has been established as a risk factor for prostate cancer, attempts have been made to isolate predisposing genetic variants that are related to hereditary prostate cancer. With many genetic variants still to be identified and investigated, it is not yet possible to fully understand the impact of genetic variants on prostate cancer development. The high survival rates among men with prostate cancer have meant that other issues, such as quality of life (QoL), have also become important. Through their effect on a person’s health, a range of inherited genetic variants may potentially influence QoL in men with prostate cancer, even prior to treatment. Until now, limited research has been conducted on the relationship between genetics and QoL. Thus, this study contributes to an emerging field by aiming to identify certain genetic variants related to the QoL found in men with prostate cancer. It is hoped that this study may lead to future research that will identify men who have an increased risk of a poor QoL following prostate cancer treatment, which will aid in developing treatments that are individually tailored to support them. Previous studies have established that genetic variants of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) and Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) may play a role in prostate cancer development. VEGF and IGF-1 have also been reported to be associated with QoL in people with ovarian cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. This study completed a series of secondary analyses using two major data-sets (from 850 men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer, and approximately 550 men from the general Queensland population), in which genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 were investigated for associations with prostate cancer susceptibility and QoL. The first aim of this research was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-I gene for an association with the risk of prostate cancer. It was found that one IGF-1 genetic variant (rs35765) had a statistically significant association with prostate cancer (p = 0.04), and one VEGF genetic variant (rs2146323) had a statistically significant association with advanced prostate cancer (p = 0.02). The estimates suggest that carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs35765 may have a reduced risk of developing prostate cancer (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.55, 0.95, OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.26, 1.39, respectively). Meanwhile, carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs2146323 may be at increased risk of advanced prostate cancer, which was determined by a Gleason score of above 7 (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.63, OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.08, 3.34, respectively). Utilising the widely used short-form health survey, the SF-36v2, the second aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between prostate cancer and QoL prior to treatment. Assessing QoL at this time-point was important as little research has been conducted to evaluate if prostate cancer affects QoL regardless of treatment. The analyses found that mean SF-36v2 scale scores related to physical health were higher by at least 0.3 Standard Deviations (SD) among men with prostate cancer than the general population comparison group. This difference was considered clinically significant (defined by group differences in mean SF-36v2 scores by at least 0.3 SD). These differences were also statistically significant (p<0.05). Mean QoL scale scores related to mental health were similar between men with prostate cancer and those from the general population comparison group. The third aim of this study was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-1 gene for an association with QoL in prostate cancer patients prior to their treatment. It was essential to evaluate these relationships prior to treatment, before the involvement of these genes was potentially interrupted by treatment. The analyses found that some genetic variants had a small clinically significant association (0.3 SD) to some QoL domains experienced by these men. However, most relationships were not statistically significant (p>0.05). Most of the associations found identified that a small sub-group of men with prostate cancer (approximately 2%) reported, on average, a slightly better QoL than the majority of the prostate cancer patients. The fourth aim of this research was to investigate whether associations between genetic variants in VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL were specific to men with prostate cancer, or were also applicable to the general male population. It was found that twenty out of one-hundred relationships between the genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL health-measures and scales examined differed between these groups. In the majority of the relationships involving VEGF SNPs that differed, a clinically significant difference (0.3 or more SD) between mean scores among the genotype groups in prostate cancer patients was found, while mean scores among men from the general-population comparison group were similar. For example, prostate cancer participants who carried at least one T allele (CT or TT genotype) for rs3024994 had a clinically significant higher (0.3 SD) mean QoL score in terms of the role-physical scale, than participants who carried the CC genotype. This was not seen among men from the general population sample, as the mean score was similar between genotype groups. The opposite was seen in regards to the IGF-1 SNPs examined. Overall, these relationships were not considered to directly impact on the clinical options for men with prostate cancer. As this study utilised secondary data from two separate studies, there are a number of important limitations that should be acknowledged including issues of multiple comparisons, power, and missing or unavailable data. It is recommended that this study be replicated as a better-designed study that takes greater consideration of the many factors involved in prostate cancer and QoL. Investigation into other genetic variants of VEGF or IGF-1 is also warranted, as is consideration of other genes and their relationship with QoL. Through identifying certain genetic variants that have a modest association to prostate cancer, this project adds to the knowledge surrounding VEGF and IGF-1 and their role in prostate cancer susceptibility. Importantly, this project has also introduced the potential role genetics plays in QoL, through investigating the relationships between genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL.

Computational design of cyclic nitroxides as efficient redox mediators for dye-sensitized solar cells

Cyclic nitroxide radicals represent promising alternatives to the iodine-based redox mediator commonly used in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). To date DSSCs with nitroxide-based redox mediators have achieved energy conversion efficiencies of just over 5 % but efficiencies of over 15 % might be achievable, given an appropriate mediator. The efficacy of the mediator depends upon two main factors: it must reversibly undergo one-electron oxidation and it must possess an oxidation potential in a range of 0.600-0.850 V (vs. a standard hydrogen electrode (SHE) in acetonitrile at 25 °C). Herein, we have examined the effect that structural modifications have on the value of the oxidation potential of cyclic nitroxides as well as the reversibility of the oxidation process. These included alterations to the N-containing skeleton (pyrrolidine, piperidine, isoindoline, azaphenalene, etc.), as well as the introduction of different substituents (alkyl-, methoxy-, amino-, carboxy-, etc.) to the ring. Standard oxidation potentials were calculated using high-level ab initio methodology that was demonstrated to be very accurate (with a mean absolute deviation from experimental values of only 16 mV). An optimal value of 1.45 for the electrostatic scaling factor for UAKS radii in acetonitrile solution was obtained. Established trends in the values of oxidation potentials were used to guide molecular design of stable nitroxides with desired E° ox and a number of compounds were suggested for potential use as enhanced redox mediators in DSSCs. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Motivations for an organisation within a developing country to report social responsibility information : evidence from Bangladesh

Purpose – The aim of the paper is to describe and explain, using a combination of interviews and content analysis, the social and environmental reporting practices of a major garment export organisation within a developing country. Design/methodology/approach – Senior executives from a major organisation in Bangladesh are interviewed to determine the pressures being exerted on them in terms of their social and environmental performance. The perceptions of pressures are then used to explain – via content analysis – changing social and environmental disclosure practices. Findings – The results show that particular stakeholder groups have, since the early 1990s, placed pressure on the Bangladeshi clothing industry in terms of its social performance. This pressure, which is also directly related to the expectations of the global community, in turn drives the industry's social policies and related disclosure practices. Research limitations/implications – The findings show that, within the context of a developing country, unless we consider the managers' perceptions about the social and environmental expectations being imposed upon them by powerful stakeholder groups then we will be unable to understand organisational disclosure practices. Originality/value – This paper is the first known paper to interview managers from a large organisation in a developing country about changing stakeholder expectations and then link these changing expectations to annual report disclosures across an extended period of analysis.

Community-based control of Aedes aegypti by using Mesocyclops in southern Vietnam

We previously reported a new community-based mosquito control strategy that resulted in elimination of Aedes aegypti (Linn.) in 40 of 46 communes in northern and central Vietnam, and with annual recurrent total costs (direct and indirect) of only $0.28-$0.89 international dollars per person. This control strategy was extended to four provinces in southern Vietnam in Long An and Hau Giang (2004-2007) and to Long An, Ben Tre, and Vinh Long (2005-2010). In a total of 14 communes with 124,743 residents, the mean ± SD of adult female Ae. aegypti was reduced from 0.93 ± 0.62 to 0.06 ± 0.09, and the reduction of immature Ae. aegypti averaged 98.8%. By the final survey, no adults could be collected in 6 of 14 communes, and one commune, Binh Thanh, also had no immature forms. Although the community-based programs also involved community education and clean-up campaigns, the prevalence of Mesocyclops in large water storage containers > 50 liters increased from 12.77 ± 8.39 to 75.69 ± 9.17% over periods of 15-45 months. At the conclusion of the study, no confirmed dengue cases were detected in four of the five communes for which diagnostic serologic analysis was performed. The rate of progress was faster in communes that were added in stages to the program but the reason for this finding was unclear. At the completion of the formal project, sustainability funds were set up to provide each commune with the financial means to ensure that community-based dengue control activities continued.

Predicting crack initiation due to ratchetting in rail heads using critical element analysis

This paper presents a strategy to predict the lifetime of rails subjected to large rolling contact loads that induce ratchetting strains in the rail head. A critical element concept is used to calculate the number of loading cycles needed for crack initiation to occur in the rail head surface. In this technique the finite element method (FEM) is used to determine the maximum equivalent ratchetting strain per load cycle, which is calculated by combining longitudinal and shear stains in the critical element. This technique builds on a previously developed critical plane concept that has been used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation in rolling contact fatigue under ratchetting failure conditions. The critical element concept simplifies the analytical difficulties of critical plane analysis. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to identify the critical element in the mesh, and then the strain values of the critical element are used to calculate the ratchetting rate analytically. Finally, a ratchetting criterion is used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation from the ratchetting rate calculated.

Identification and elimination of a matrix-induced systematic error in LA–ICP–MS 206Pb/238U dating of zircon

Black et al. (2004) identified a systematic difference between LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measurements of 206Pb/238U in zircons, which they correlated with the incompatible trace element content of the zircon. We show that the offset between the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U correlates more strongly with the total radiogenic Pb than with any incompatible trace element. This suggests that the cause of the 206Pb/238U offset is related to differences in the radiation damage (alpha dose) between the reference and unknowns. We test this hypothesis in two ways. First, we show that there is a strong correlation between the difference in the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U and the difference in the alpha dose received by unknown and reference zircons. The LA–ICP–MS ages for the zircons we have dated can be as much as 5.1% younger than their TIMS age to 2.1% older, depending on whether the unknown or reference received the higher alpha dose. Second, we show that by annealing both reference and unknown zircons at 850 °C for 48 h in air we can eliminate the alpha-dose-induced differences in measured 206Pb/238U. This was achieved by analyzing six reference zircons a minimum of 16 times in two round robin experiments: the first consisting of unannealed zircons and the second of annealed grains. The maximum offset between the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U for the unannealed zircons was 2.3%, which reduced to 0.5% for the annealed grains, as predicted by within-session precision based on counting statistics. Annealing unknown zircons and references to the same state prior to analysis holds the promise of reducing the 3% external error for the measurement of 206Pb/238U of zircon by LA–ICP–MS, indicated by Klötzli et al. (2009), to better than 1%, but more analyses of annealed zircons by other laboratories are required to evaluate the true potential of the annealing method.

Putative full-length clones of the genomic DNA segments of subterranean clover stunt virus and identification of the segment coding for the viral coat protein

Subterranean clover stunt disease is an economically important aphid-borne virus disease affecting certain pasture and grain legumes in Australia. The virus associated with the disease, subterranean clover stunt virus (SCSV), was previously found to be representative of a new type of single-stranded DNA virus. Analysis of the virion DNA and restriction mapping of double-stranded cDNA synthesized from virion DNA suggested that SCSV has a segmented genome composed of 3 or 4 different species of circular ssDNA each of about 850-880 nucleotides. To further investigate the complexity of the SCSV genome, we have isolated the replicative form DNA from infected pea and from it prepared putative full-length clones representing the SCSV genome segments. Analysis of these clones by restriction mapping indicated that clones representing at least 4 distinct genomic segments were obtained. This method is thus suitable for generating an extensive genomic library of novel ssDNA viruses containing multiple genome segments such as SCSV and banana bunchy top virus. The N-terminal amino acid sequence and amino acid composition of the coat protein of SCSV were determined. Comparison of the amino acid sequence with partial DNA sequence data, and the distinctly different restriction maps obtained for the full-length clones suggested that only one of these clones contained the coat protein gene. The results confirmed that SCSV has a functionally divided genome composed of several distinct ssDNA circles each of about 1 kb.