How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

The distribution of the sample minimum-variance frontier

In this paper, we present a finite sample analysis of the sample minimum-variance frontier under the assumption that the returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed. We show that the sample minimum-variance frontier is a highly biased estimator of the population frontier, and we propose an improved estimator of the population frontier. In addition, we provide the exact distribution of the out-of-sample mean and variance of sample minimum-variance portfolios. This allows us to understand the impact of estimation error on the performance of in-sample optimal portfolios. Key Words: minimum-variance frontier; efficiency set constants; finite sample distribution

Impact of soil texture on the distribution of soil organic matter in physical and chemical fractions

Previous research on the protection of soil organic C from decomposition suggests that soil texture affects soil C stocks. However, different pools of soil organic matter (SOM) might be differently related to soil texture. Our objective was to examine how soil texture differentially alters the distribution of organic C within physically and chemically defined pools of unprotected and protected SOM. We collected samples from two soil texture gradients where other variables influencing soil organic C content were held constant. One texture gradient (16-60% clay) was located near Stewart Valley, Saskatchewan, Canada and the other (25-50% clay) near Cygnet, OH. Soils were physically fractionated into coarse- and fine-particulate organic matter (POM), silt- and clay-sized particles within microaggregates, and easily dispersed silt-and clay-sized particles outside of microaggregates. Whole-soil organic C concentration was positively related to silt plus clay content at both sites. We found no relationship between soil texture and unprotected C (coarse- and fine-POM C). Biochemically protected C (nonhydrolyzable C) increased with increasing clay content in whole-soil samples, but the proportion of nonhydrolyzable C within silt- and clay-sized fractions was unchanged. As the amount of silt or clay increased, the amount of C stabilized within easily dispersed and microaggregate-associated silt or clay fractions decreased. Our results suggest that for a given level of C inputs, the relationship between mineral surface area and soil organic matter varies with soil texture for physically and biochemically protected C fractions. Because soil texture acts directly and indirectly on various protection mechanisms, it may not be a universal predictor of whole-soil C content.

A trial of the distribution of chlamydia self-collection postal specimen kits from Australian community pharmacies

We explored the feasibility of community pharmacies for the distribution of chlamydia specimen self-collection kits, which featured a transport medium allowing postage of urine specimens in Australia. Eligible clients were requested to complete a code-matched risk-screening questionnaire in the pharmacy, and the derived risk scores were compared to the test results from the corresponding specimen. Four Queensland pharmacies distributed 156 kits, while 44 questionnaires and 18 specimens were received.

The distribution of construction project bids

This paper describes an analysis of construction project bids to determine (a) the global distribution and (b) factors influencing the distribution of bids. The global distribution of bids was found, by using a battery of ll test statistics, to be approximated by a three-parameter log normal distribution. No global spread parameter was found. A multivariate analysis revealed the year of tender to be the major influencing factor. Consideration of the construction order, tender price and output indices lead to the conclusion that distributional spread reflected the degree of difference in pricing policies between bidders and the skewness of the distributions reflected the degree of competition. The paper concludes with a tentative model of the causal relationships between the factors and distributional characteristics involved.

The distribution of absorptive capacity among construction supply chain participants

The absorptive capacity of organisations is one of the key drivers of innovation performance in any industry. This research seeks to refine our understanding of the relationship between absorptive capacity and innovation performance, with a focus on characterising the absorptive capacity of the different participant groups within the Australian road industry supply chain. One of the largest and most comprehensive surveys ever undertaken of innovation in road construction was completed in 2011 by the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), based on the Australian road industry. The survey of over 200 construction industry participants covered four sectors, comprising suppliers (manufacturers and distributors), consultants (engineering consultants), contractors (head and subcontractors) and clients (state government road agencies). The survey measured the absorptive capacity and innovation activity exhibited by organisations within each of these participant groups, using the perceived importance of addressing innovation obstacles as a proxy for innovation activity. One of the key findings of the survey is about the impact of participant competency on product innovation activity. The survey found that the absorptive capacity of industry participants had a significant and positive relationship with innovation activity. Regarding the distribution of absorptive capacity, the results indicate that suppliers are more likely to have high levels of absorptive capacity than the other participant groups, with 32% of suppliers showing high absorptive capacity, ahead of contractors (18%), consultants (11%), and clients (7%). These results support the findings of previous studies in the literature and suggest the importance of policies to enhance organisational learning, particularly in relation to openness to new product ideas.

Effect of pupil dilation and constriction on the distribution of bit errors within the iris

Texture information in the iris image is not uniform in discriminatory information content for biometric identity verification. The bits in an iris code obtained from the image differ in their consistency from one sample to another for the same identity. In this work, errors in bit strings are systematically analysed in order to investigate the effect of light-induced and drug-induced pupil dilation and constriction on the consistency of iris texture information. The statistics of bit errors are computed for client and impostor distributions as functions of radius and angle. Under normal conditions, a V-shaped radial trend of decreasing bit errors towards the central region of the iris is obtained for client matching, and it is observed that the distribution of errors as a function of angle is uniform. When iris images are affected by pupil dilation or constriction the radial distribution of bit errors is altered. A decreasing trend from the pupil outwards is observed for constriction, whereas a more uniform trend is observed for dilation. The main increase in bit errors occurs closer to the pupil in both cases.

A study, by fire-assay and ICP-MS, of the distribution of rhodium, platinum, and gold in iron-age pottery

Forty-six archaeological specimens were treated by fire-assay and subsequently analysed by ICP-MS for selected precious metals: Ph, Pt and Au. The investigation was prompted by the possibility that archaeological samples could serve as "indicators" of the precious metal composition of the clays from the excavated sites. Therefore, the experimentally obtained concentrations were carefully studied to determine if there were anomalous levels of these precious metals in the deposits from which the specimens originated. Furthermore, the analytical data were used to establish if it was feasible to distinguish ancient potsherds based on precious metal concentrations, for employment as a basis in provenance studies.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

The application of phonetic distribution normalisation to likelihood-maximising speech enhancement for robust ASR

Traditional speech enhancement methods optimise signal-level criteria such as signal-to-noise ratio, but such approaches are sub-optimal for noise-robust speech recognition. Likelihood-maximising (LIMA) frameworks on the other hand, optimise the parameters of speech enhancement algorithms based on state sequences generated by a speech recogniser for utterances of known transcriptions. Previous applications of LIMA frameworks have generated a set of global enhancement parameters for all model states without taking in account the distribution of model occurrence, making optimisation susceptible to favouring frequently occurring models, in particular silence. In this paper, we demonstrate the existence of highly disproportionate phonetic distributions on two corpora with distinct speech tasks, and propose to normalise the influence of each phone based on a priori occurrence probabilities. Likelihood analysis and speech recognition experiments verify this approach for improving ASR performance in noisy environments.

Distribution of conjunctival ultraviolet autoflourescence in a population-based study : the Norfolk Island Eye Study

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe the distribution of conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence (UVAF) in an adult population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island, South Pacific Ocean. In all, 641 people, aged 15 to 89 years, were recruited. UVAF and standard (control) photographs were taken of the nasal and temporal interpalpebral regions bilaterally. Differences between the groups for non-normally distributed continuous variables were assessed using the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney ranksum test. Trends across categories were assessed using Cuzick's non-parametric test for trend or Kendall's rank correlation τ. RESULTS: Conjunctival UVAF is a non-parametric trait with a positively skewed distribution. Median amount of conjunctival UVAF per person (sum of four measurements; right nasal/temporal and left nasal/temporal) was 28.2 mm(2) (interquartile range 14.5-48.2). There was an inverse, linear relationship between UVAF and advancing age (P<0.001). Males had a higher sum of UVAF compared with females (34.4 mm(2) vs 23.2 mm(2), P<0.0001). There were no statistically significant differences in area of UVAF between right and left eyes or between nasal and temporal regions. CONCLUSION: We have provided the first quantifiable estimates of conjunctival UVAF in an adult population. Further data are required to provide information about the natural history of UVAF and to characterise other potential disease associations with UVAF. UVR protective strategies should be emphasised at an early age to prevent the long-term adverse effects on health associated with excess UVR.

Beyond Moa's Ark and Wallace's Line: extralimital distribution of new species of Austronothrus (Acari, Oribatida, Crotoniidae) and the endemicity of the New Zealand oribatid mite fauna

The genus Austronothrus was previously known from three species recorded only from New Zealand. Austronothrus kinabalu sp. nov. is described from Sabah, Borneo and A. rostralis sp. nov. from Norfolk Island, south-west Pacific. A key to Austronothrus is included. These new species extend the distribution of Austronothrus beyond New Zealand and confirms that the subfamily Crotoniinae is not confined to former Gondwanan landmasses. The distribution pattern of Austronothrus spp., combining Oriental and Gondwanan localities, is indicative of a curved, linear track; consistent with the accretion of island arcs and volcanic terranes around the plate margins of the Pacific Ocean, with older taxa persisting on younger island though localised dispersal within island arc metapopulations. Phylogenetic analysis and an area cladogram are consistent with a broad ancestral distribution of Austronothrus in the Oriental region and on Gondwanan terranes, with subsequent divergence and distribution southward from the Sunda region to New Zealand. This pattern is more complex than might be expected if the New Zealand oribatid fauna was derived from dispersal following re-emergence of land after inundation during the Oligocene (25 mya), as well as if the fauna emanated from endemic, relictual taxa following separation of New Zealand from Gondwana during the Cretaceous (80 mya).

Analyzing the prevalence of sports-related terms among the web sites of global corporations

This research investigates the prevalence of sports-related terms among the Web sites of the world’s leading companies, the Fortune Global 500. An automated process copied about four gigabytes of textual data, around 70 million words, from their sites. The subsequent analysis revealed regional and industry differences in the distribution of sports-related terms, the popularity of tennis stars and few references to sports stars, especially in Asia.

Rethinking youth cultures : the case of the 'Gothics'

This paper has argued that subcultural social formations, such as the Gothics, did not evolve as resistance to a dominant culture. Instead, they are a response to the governmental construction of youth as an object of knowledge—the by-product of particular forms of government, generated by specific power/knowledge relations. Accordingly, attempts to account for the phenomenon of ‘subcultures’ should begin, not with notions of a shared, resistant class/generational consciousness, but rather with detailed investigations of specific forms of government, such as those involving conventions and customs within the fashion and music industries, the distribution of technologies of marketing and consumption, the adoption of various techniques of self-shaping, the prevalence of different journalistic practices, routines of policing, and so on. ‘Subcultural style’ is not an expression of relationship between a given social class, its material conditions and its economic and cultural aspirations. Rather, it constitutes the construction of particular habitus, shaped by fashion and leisure activities, through which certain youthful personae are given their form.