A continuous time model for election timing

We consider a continuous time model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an early election. Our model is based on the two-party-preferred data that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition over time. We describe the poll process by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and use a martingale approach to derive a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the government’s expected remaining life in office. A comparison is made between a three-year and a four-year maximum term and we also provide the exercise boundary for calling an election. Impacts on changes in parameters in the SDE, the probability of winning the election and maximum terms on the call exercise boundaries are discussed and analysed. An application of our model to the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives is also given.

Personal Injuries Proceedings Act 2002, s 32 - Duty to Disclose - consequences of non-disclosure - discretion to excuse non-compliance

In Newson v Aust Scan Pty Ltd t/a Ikea Springwood [2010] QSC 223 the Supreme Court examined the discretion under s 32(2) of the Personal Injuries Proceedings Act 2002 (Qld), to permit a document which has not been disclosed as required by the pre-court procedures under the PIPA to be used in a subsequent court proceeding. This appears to be the first time that the nature and parameters of the discretion have been judicially considered.

Cerebral cortex activation mapping upon electrical muscle stimulation by 32-channel time-domain functional near-infrared spectroscopy

The application of different EMS current thresholds on muscle activates not only the muscle but also peripheral sensory axons that send proprioceptive and pain signals to the cerebral cortex. A 32-channel time-domain fNIRS instrument was employed to map regional cortical activities under varied EMS current intensities applied on the right wrist extensor muscle. Eight healthy volunteers underwent four EMS at different current thresholds based on their individual maximal tolerated intensity (MTI), i.e., 10 % < 50 % < 100 % < over 100 % MTI. Time courses of the absolute oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin concentrations primarily over the bilateral sensorimotor cortical (SMC) regions were extrapolated, and cortical activation maps were determined by general linear model using the NIRS-SPM software. The stimulation-induced wrist extension paradigm significantly increased activation of the contralateral SMC region according to the EMS intensities, while the ipsilateral SMC region showed no significant changes. This could be due in part to a nociceptive response to the higher EMS current intensities and result also from increased sensorimotor integration in these cortical regions.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of the sulphate mineral glaucocerinite (Zn,Cu)10Al6(SO4)3(OH)32⋅18H2O – a natural layered double hydroxide

We have studied the molecular structure of the mineral glaucocerinite (Zn,Cu)5Al3(SO4)1.5(OH)16�9(H2O) using a combination of Raman and infrared spectroscopy. The mineral is one of the hydrotalcite supergroup of natural layered double hydroxides. The Raman spectrum is characterised by an intense Raman band at 982 cm�1 with a low intensity band at 1083 cm�1. These bands are attributed to the sulphate symmetric and antisymmetric stretching mode. The infrared spectrum is quite broad with a peak at 1020 cm�1. A series of Raman bands at 546, 584, 602, 625 and 651 cm�1 are assigned to the m4 (SO4)2� bending modes. The observation of multiple bands provides evidence for the reduction in symmetry of the sulphate anion from Td to C2v or even lower symmetry. The Raman band at 762 cm�1 is attributed to a hydroxyl deformation mode associated with AlOH units. Vibrational spectroscopy enables aspects of the molecular structure of glaucocerinite to be determined.

IODP Expedition 339 in the Gulf of Cadiz and off West Iberia : decoding the environmental significance of the Mediterranean outflow water and its global influence

IODP Expedition 339 drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two off the west Iberian margin (November 2011 to January 2012), and recovered 5.5 km of sediment cores with an average recovery of 86.4%. The Gulf of Cadiz was targeted for drilling as a key location for the investigation of Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) through the Gibraltar Gateway and its influence on global circulation and climate. It is also a prime area for understanding the effects of tectonic activity on evolution of the Gibraltar Gateway and on margin sedimentation. We penetrated into the Miocene at two different sites and established a strong signal of MOW in the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Cadiz, following the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway. Preliminary results show the initiation of contourite deposition at 4.2–4.5 Ma, although subsequent research will establish whether this dates the onset of MOW. The Pliocene succession, penetrated at four sites, shows low bottom current activity linked with a weak MOW. Significant widespread unconformities, present in all sites but with hiatuses of variable duration, are interpreted as a signal of intensified MOW, coupled with flow confinement. The Quaternary succession shows a much more pronounced phase of contourite drift development, with two periods of MOW intensification separated by a widespread unconformity. Following this, the final phase of drift evolution established the contourite depositional system (CDS) architecture we see today. There is a significant climate control on this evolution of MOW and bottom-current activity. However, from the closure of the Atlantic–Mediterranean gateways in Spain and Morocco just over 6 Ma and the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway at 5.3 Ma, there has been an even stronger tectonic control on margin development, downslope sediment transport and contourite drift evolution. The Gulf of Cadiz is the world's premier contourite laboratory and thus presents an ideal testing ground for the contourite paradigm. Further study of these contourites will allow us to resolve outstanding issues related to depositional processes, drift budgets, and recognition of fossil contourites in the ancient record on shore. The expedition also verified an enormous quantity and extensive distribution of contourite sands that are clean and well sorted. These represent a relatively untapped and important exploration target for potential oil and gas reservoirs.

Improved linear cryptanalysis of reduced-round SIMON-32 and SIMON-48

In this paper we analyse two variants of SIMON family of light-weight block ciphers against variants of linear cryptanalysis and present the best linear cryptanalytic results on these variants of reduced-round SIMON to date. We propose a time-memory trade-off method that finds differential/linear trails for any permutation allowing low Hamming weight differential/linear trails. Our method combines low Hamming weight trails found by the correlation matrix representing the target permutation with heavy Hamming weight trails found using a Mixed Integer Programming model representing the target differential/linear trail. Our method enables us to find a 17-round linear approximation for SIMON-48 which is the best current linear approximation for SIMON-48. Using only the correlation matrix method, we are able to find a 14-round linear approximation for SIMON-32 which is also the current best linear approximation for SIMON-32. The presented linear approximations allow us to mount a 23-round key recovery attack on SIMON-32 and a 24-round Key recovery attack on SIMON-48/96 which are the current best results on SIMON-32 and SIMON-48. In addition we have an attack on 24 rounds of SIMON-32 with marginal complexity.