The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

Econometric fellows and Nobel Laureates in economics

An academic award is method by which peers offer recognition of intellectual efforts. In this paper we take a purely descriptive look at the relationship between becoming a Fellow of the Econometric Society and receiving the Nobel Prize in economics. We discover some interesting aspects: of all 69 Nobel Prize Laureates between 1969 and 2011, only 9 of them were not also Fellows. Moreover, the proportion of future novel winners among the Fellows has been quite high throughout time and a large share of researchers who became Fellows between the 1930s and 1950s became Nobel Laureates at a later stage. On average, researchers became Fellows relatively early in their career (14.9 years after their PhD) and those who were subsequently made Nobel Laureates became Fellows earlier than other researchers. Interestingly, Harvard and MIT have been the dominant PhD granting institutions to generate Fellows and Nobel Laureates in the past.

We need to talk about … economics

I want to take up the “economies” part of this conference's theme, “Materialities: Economies, Empiricism and Things,” and engage with those critics of the creative industries position within media, cultural and communication studies. There's certainly been a bit of (symbolic) attempted patricide on the creative industries side, but there has been an even stronger disavowal of parentage, even a bit of—always symbolic—attempted infanticide, on the other...

Vibrational spectroscopy of phthalocyanine and naphthalocyanine in sandwich-type (na)phthalocyaninato and porphyrinato rare earth complexes: Part 14. The infrared and Raman characteristics of phthalocyanine in “pinwheel-like” homoleptic bis[1,8,15,22-tetrakis(3-pentyloxy)phthalocyaninato] rare earth(III) double-decker complexes

The infrared (IR) spectroscopic data and Raman spectroscopic properties for a series of 13 “pinwheel-like” homoleptic bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth complexes M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2 [M = Y and Pr–Lu except Pm; H2Pc(α-OC5H11)4 = 1,8,15,22-tetrakis(3-pentyloxy)phthalocyanine] have been collected and comparatively studied. Both the IR and Raman spectra for M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2 are more complicated than those of homoleptic bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth analogues, namely M(Pc)2 and M[Pc(OC8H17)8]2, but resemble (for IR) or are a bit more complicated (for Raman) than those of heteroleptic counterparts M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4], revealing the decreased molecular symmetry of these double-decker compounds, namely S8. Except for the obvious splitting of the isoindole breathing band at 1110–1123 cm−1, the IR spectra of M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2 are quite similar to those of corresponding M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4] and therefore are similarly assigned. With laser excitation at 633 nm, Raman bands derived from isoindole ring and aza stretchings in the range of 1300–1600 cm−1 are selectively intensified. The IR spectra reveal that the frequencies of pyrrole stretching and pyrrole stretching coupled with the symmetrical CH bending of –CH3 groups are sensitive to the rare earth ionic size, while the Raman technique shows that the bands due to the isoindole stretchings and the coupled pyrrole and aza stretchings are similarly affected. Nevertheless, the phthalocyanine monoanion radical Pc′− IR marker band of bis(phthalocyaninato) complexes involving the same rare earth ion is found to shift to lower energy in the order M(Pc)2 > M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4] > M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2, revealing the weakened π–π interaction between the two phthalocyanine rings in the same order.

Reducing the global burden of depression : population level analysis of intervention cost-effectiveness in 14 world regions

International evidence on the cost and effects of interventions for reducing the global burden of depression remain scarce. Aims: To estimate the population-level cost-effectiveness of evidence-based depression interventions and their contribution towards reducing current burden. Method: Primary-care-based depression interventions were modelled at the level of whole populations in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. Total population-level costs (in international dollars or I$) and effectiveness (disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted) were combined to form average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Evaluated interventions have the potential to reduce the current burden of depression by 10–30%. Pharmacotherapy with older antidepressant drugs, with or without proactive collaborative care, are currently more cost-effective strategies than those using newer antidepressants, particularly in lower-income subregions. Conclusions: Even in resource-poor regions, each DALYaverted by efficient depression treatments in primary care costs less than 1 year of average per capita income, making such interventions a cost-effective use of health resources. However, current levels of burden can only be reduced significantlyif there is a substantialincrease substantial increase intreatment coverage.

Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

Why do so few hold stocks : theory and evidence

This study develops a life-cycle model where investors make investment decisions in a realistic environment. Model results show that personal illiquid projects (housing and children), fixed costs (once-off/per-period participation costs plus variable/fixed transaction costs) and endogenous risky human capital (with permanent, transitory and disastrous shocks) together are able to address both the non-participation puzzle and the age-effects puzzle. Empirical implications of the model are examined using Heckman’s two-step method with the latest five Surveys of Consumer Finance (SCF). Regression results show that liquidity, informational cost and human capital are indeed the major determinants of participation and asset allocation decisions at different stages of an investor’s life.