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Polarized infrared absorption spectrum of matrix-isolated methylperoxyl radicals, CH3OO (X)over-tilde 2A ''

We have used a tandem pair of supersonic nozzles to produce clean samples of CH3OO radicals in cryogenic matrices. One hyperthermal nozzle decomposes azomethane (CH3NNCH3) to generate intense pulses of CH3 radicals, While the second nozzle alternately fires a burst Of O-2/Ar at the 20 K matrix. The CH3/O-2/20 K argon radical sandwich acts to produce target methylperoxyl radicals: CH3 + O-2 --> CH3OO. The absorption spectra of the radicals are monitored with a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer. We report 10 of the 12 fundamental infrared bands of the methylperoxyl radical CH3OO, (X) over tilde (2)A", in an argon matrix at 20 K. The experimental frequencies (cm(-1)) and polarizations follow: the a' modes are 3032, 2957, 1448, 1410, 1180, 1109, 90, 492, while the a" modes are 3024 and 1434. We cannot detect the asymmetric CH3 rocking mode, nu(11), nor the torsion, nu(12). The infrared spectra of (CH3OO)-O-18-O-18, (CH3OO)-C-13, and CD3OO have been measured as well in order to determine the isotopic shifts. The experimental frequencies, {nu}, for the methylperoxyl radicals are compared to harmonic frequencies, {omega}, resulting from a UB3LYP/6-311G(d,p) electronic structure calculation. Linear dichroism spectra were measured with photooriented radical samples in order to establish the experimental polarizations of most vibrational bands. The methylperoxyl radical matrix frequencies listed above are within +/-2% of the gas-phase vibrational frequencies. A final set of vibrational frequencies for the H radical, are recommended. See also http://ellison.colorado.edu/methylperoxyl.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

Predictive compensation for variable network delays and packet losses in networked control systems

Networked control systems (NCSs) offer many advantages over conventional control; however, they also demonstrate challenging problems such as network-induced delay and packet losses. This paper proposes an approach of predictive compensation for simultaneous network-induced delays and packet losses. Different from the majority of existing NCS control methods, the proposed approach addresses co-design of both network and controller. It also alleviates the requirements of precise process models and full understanding of NCS network dynamics. For a series of possible sensor-to-actuator delays, the controller computes a series of corresponding redundant control values. Then, it sends out those control values in a single packet to the actuator. Once receiving the control packet, the actuator measures the actual sensor-to-actuator delay and computes the control signals from the control packet. When packet dropout occurs, the actuator utilizes past control packets to generate an appropriate control signal. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through examples.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Permutation polynomials of the form (xp −x +δ)s +L(x)

Recently, several classes of permutation polynomials of the form (x2 + x + δ)s + x over F2m have been discovered. They are related to Kloosterman sums. In this paper, the permutation behavior of polynomials of the form (xp − x + δ)s + L(x) over Fpm is investigated, where L(x) is a linearized polynomial with coefficients in Fp. Six classes of permutation polynomials on F2m are derived. Three classes of permutation polynomials over F3m are also presented.

Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Motivational Interviewing changes the treatment trajectory of group Cognitive-Behavioural Therapy for anxiety

Anxiety disorders have been viewed as manifestations of broad underlying predisposing personality constructs such as neuroticism combined with more specific individual differences of unhelpful information processing styles. Given the high prevalence of anxiety and the significant impairment that it causes, there is an important need to continue to explore successful treatments for this disorder. Research indicates that there is still room for significantly improving attrition rates and treatment adherence. Traditionally Motivational Interviewing (MI) has been used to facilitate health behaviour change. Recently MI has been applied to psychotherapy and has been shown to improve the outcome of CBT. However, these studies have been limited to only considering pre- and post-treatment measures and neglected to consider when changes occur along the course of therapy. This leaves the unanswered question of what is the impact of pre-treatment MI on the treatment trajectory of therapy. This study provides preliminary research into answering this question by tracking changes on a weekly basis along the course of group CBT. Prior to group CBT, 40 individuals with a principal anxiety disorder diagnosis were randomly assigned to receive either 3 individual sessions of MI or placed on a waitlist control group. All participants then received the same dosage of 10 weekly 2 hour sessions of group CBT. Tracking treatment outcome trajectory over the course of CBT, the pre-treatment MI group, compared to the control group, experienced a greater improvement early on in the course of therapy in their symptom distress, interpersonal relationships and quality of life. This early advantage over the control group was then maintained throughout therapy. These results not only demonstrate the value of adding MI to CBT, but also highlight the immediacy of MI effects. Further research is needed to determine the robustness of these effects to inform clinical implications of how to best apply MI to improve treatment adherence to CBT for anxiety disorders.